Women’s 400 Medley Relay

@Nescacfan wrote:

At the end of the first day, the 400 Medley looms large. Few give Amherst a chance against Kenyon and Emory. I think Amherst can win, not only because I’m nescacfan, but because I think the Amherst women can break 3:50. Kenyon takes second and Dennison takes third.

Not likely…don’t think Amherst has the “horses” to pull this one off…and I think a 3:50 low by Kenyon wins it…unless Ertel pulls a 54 split and then they break 3:50.

the deciding leg would be the breaststroke one. sasser will have the legging leg by 2 seconds (maybe even more) while Denison, kenyon, Emory will all be at 58 lows. kenyon will pull away with connors while faingold (denison) and flader (EU) will battle with Amherst. Amhersts Pettersen wont be able to hold their minimal lead. KC and EU will take the lead with Ertel and Psaris (but Psaris will gain some ground on Ertel), while Zaleski falls back. If Ertel does the fly, then Carlton will have to duel with emory’s Westby (.8 faster seed). If Zaleski does the fly then denison has novinger to race with westby and Carlton. Amherst and Stern will need to do some miracle work.

I think Kenyon will win it and emory will take over denison if flader can have a hell of a swim (10575 last year). if that breaststroke leg is closer to a 104, then Kenyon has something to worry about. Emory has the fastest back half.

@Nescacfan wrote:

Amherst will swim the first half in 2:00. Don’t discount the Pettersen breast leg. She’s a senior co-captain who has been on a second-place 400 medley relay the past two years at Nationals. There is no Lindsay Payne beside her to evaporate Sasser’s 3-second lead. Pettersen gives Amherst a 1.5 second lead over Kenyon going into the fly. Amherst completes the final half in 1:48 high. They break 3:50. What’s the 3:49 low or better scenario for Kenyon and Emory. Neswim, with whom I have carried on a running commentary about this event the past month, has Kenyon winning with a 3:50. He doesn’t believe Pettersen will break 1:06 in her leg. I do. We both agree that Sasser will have a fast swim on her opening leg.

I think Amherst’s lead over Kenyon after the first half will be less than 1 second because Kenyon is likely to swim 57 high and 1:03 low…..and that lead will not stand in the face of Ertel’s fly split (54 high)…too much ground for Stern. Of course we’ve been over this ground before. I do think it will be difficult for Emory or Denison to catch Amherst however, if their breaststrokers cannot split better than 1:05. So I see it as:
1)Kenyon 2) Amherst 3)Emory

I think Kenyon wins this one rather handily also. They are just loaded on the women’s side. I think the 54 plus fly split is a def possibility. If they put out even a decent backstroke I have a feeling they are home free.

Emory’s best scenario:
Pasternak 57.0 (57.5 I think last year, Hostalet was even faster)
Flader 1:04.7 (her best time at UAA’s last year)
Psaris 54.8 (really don’t, but a safe guess from a 56.0 seed)
Westby 51.0 (safe for a 51.7 seed)

3:47.50

I think a lot of people forget about Emory’s backstroke strength. They could very easily be with Amherst after the breaststroke. If so, they will beat Amherst.

Kenyon
Barer/Jacobssen 57.5 (Who knows?)
Connors 1:03.0
Ertel 55.0
Carlton 52.0

3:47.50

(I didn’t try to make those equal each other; they just did).

Amherst
Sasser 54.5
Pettersen 1:05.0
Marvel 57.5
Stern 51.0

3:48.00

Hmmm… again really close. Anybody’s race. I think Kenyon will be in the lead going into the freestyle. Emory and Amherst will have to come from behind to win. It’ll be interesting to see what Faingold, Denison’s breaststroker can do. If she can get under 1:05, and Cassell can get close to 57.0 on the backstroke, they should also be in it. I wish I could be there to see it!

Just thinking about 54.5 in the backstroke is crazy, but it is a def possibility. Wouldn’t that be something

Great Finals swim by Kenyon – sure hope they figure out how to report their splits for the Championship final. Pair of teams under 3:50.

Anyone know what Sasser split on her backstroke? I put a watch on it and had 55.17 but really have no idea. I could be plus or minus a couple tenths. Just curious, great swim.