Women’s 2008 National Championships Predictions

I agree that Coker will place well in the 100 and 200 back events at Nationals[she has top 3 times in both events at the moment], but CMU newcomer Evans looks very fast. Coombs in the 100 and Nicholson in the 200 have proven themselves in the past. Their present times , just like those of Sasser, are no indication of what their times will be in March.

@griz wrote:

I’m going to show my bias, but why not Kelly Norsworthy in the breaststroke events? She is the second and third fastest swimmer ever, respectively, in those events. She was abroad first semester last year, so her times are a bit off. I’d say she has a pretty good shot at getting top 3 (she was 4th last year). In her most fastest year at nationals, she was a 1:06.8/2:26.6 at this point in the season. To date this year, she has gone a 1:07.6/2:27.7. So she’s a second off…she’s still going to have a pretty good taper (as most Colby swimmers have shown over the years).

I’m a big Kelly Norsworthy fan. It seemed to me that her times are a little slower this season than two years ago, but I could be wrong about that. Last year, she was away for the fall semester and swam very well at Nationals. I think you will agree that the 100 breast is her best event. There appear to be 5-6 women who can break 1:05 this year. The third spot on the podium may require a sub 1:04 swim. I sure hope Norsworthy can end up there. She is, by far, the best breaststroker in NESCAC.

@BreakingTheSurface wrote:

Nordbrock from WashU should contend in both IM’s, it’s her senior year, I predict she will be finishing collegiate career hard.

Nordbrock is certainly swimming fast this year, but I am not sure that she will be a top 3 in March. The IM events are loaded. Nordbrock has her best shot, in my opinion, in the 200 IM. However, both Orstein and Sasser are also seniors and both will be looking to break 2:03. There are a bevy of other contenders including Ertel, Brady and Hunter. The 400 IM has defending record-holder Lesher returning along with two strong newcomers, Brady and Horvat. Don’t forget Orstein. Hunter also has recorded a fast time. One of my favorites, Nicholson , has yet to swim the event this season.

I wonder if Orstein will swim in the Olympic Trials this summer. Do you think any other current D-III women might give it a go? Williams alum Lindsay Payne is certainly going to give it a try.

[ @BreakingTheSurface wrote:

Do you think any other current D-III women might give it a go?

Given the times the Kenyon women are posting, it would appear that several of them have the potential to try and qualify for the OT’s.

While the Kenyon women are swimming fast this year, no woman swimmer is close to an OT cut. That goes for all D-III women swimmers. I suspect that at Nationals or at league championships that matter[ e.g. NESCAC’s], we might have several swimmers with times in yards that, when converter to meters, would be make the cut.

http://www.usaswimming.org/USASWeb/_Rainbow/Documents/c076aa53-1ba8-412d-aa18-366abc9cf785/08TrialsCuts.pdf

However, converted times do not count for the Olympic Trials. To qualify, a D-III swimmer, if they have not done so previously, will have to swim a long course meters event in the next 5 or 6 months. I looked through the current list of 531 women OT qualifiers. I did not see any current D-III women swimmers. Lindsay Payne is ranked 13th in the 100 breast and 35th in the 200 breast. I understand that Orstein had a 200 IM time in high school that woould have qualified. Sasser’s back times [converted]from last year would get her under the wire–barely.

Saturday’s Williams @ Amherst women’s dual meet produced some very fast times.  The meet was decided in the last event –the 400 free relay.  Amherst won the relay and the meet by 5 points.

For Williams,  FY Ellen Ramsey set a pool record in the 200 Free with a  B time 1:54.05.    She also had B times in the 200 Back and 200 IM.    Junior Amanda Nicholson also had three B cuts — in the 100 Back, 500 Free and 200 IM.   Senior Crissy Haley added a B cut in the 200 Fly.
Amherst FY Kendra Stern proved that she is one of the top new D-III talents.  Her 23.67 in the 50 Free and 51.41 in the 100 Free broke pool records  They are both A cuts and give her the top D-III  national times in those two events.    Her 57.77 in the 100 Fly was a strong B swim.    Senior Brittany Sasser broke pool records in the 100 back [56.28], 200 back [2:01.18] and 200 IM [2:05.31] events.   All three times are A cuts and the fastest times to date in among D-III women this season in those three events.  Senior Lisa Pritchard made a B-cut in the 100 back.

@BreakingTheSurface wrote:

So given the results of that meet and other DIII meets, any revisions to your predictions?

I haven’t seen the results from the other meets, but the results in the Williams-Amherst dual meet suggest to me that Kendra Stern is now the favorite to win and, perhaps, set new records in the sprint freestyle events. Sasser’s time at this stage of the season suggest that she has a good chance to better her existing national backstroke records and has a shot at the 200 IM national title that has eluded her in the past.

Looking at the top times list, the Kenyon women are leading the pack in all of the relay events except for the 400 Free. Will the Kenyon women sweep all five relays at Nationals. Denison, to date, looks even stronger than Emory in the relays. Will they be the ones pushing Kenyon?

Kaitlyn Orstein established herself as the favorite to repeat as the 200 IM national champion with her swim at PAC Championships last night. Orstein also had a very fast 50 free leading off the 200 Free relay, but I doubt she swims that event at Nationals. Lauren Brady did not swim the 200 IM event for Kenyon last night. Watch for her to swim the 400 IM and 100 Fly today. Kenyon’s Tina Ertel had a nice “a-cut” 200 IM swim but not a 2:03 like Orstein. Kati Meirs of Kenyon had a strong swim in the 500 Free, establishing herself as one of the favorites in that event. The Denison relays looked strong last night, but Kenyon did not race their best combinations.

Orstein continues to look strong. She swam a 1:03.24 in PAC championship prelims this am.

Lauren Brady only exhibitioned the 100 fly this am. I assume that she is on track for a super taper for Nationals and is basically skipping NCAC’s. Denison’s Ksenia Golovkina swam a 1:04.89 in the 100 breast during NCAC prelims this am. I’ll be watching her time against Orstein tonight. At the halfway point, in my opinion, Orstein is swimmer of the weekend.

Orstein just swam a 103.03 in the 100 breast. That time would have won at Nationals last year.

4:34.99 and better.

Last night’s Day 1 Finals at NESCAC championships bring Middlebury in the mix for the 200 Free Relay. Amherst’s 3:50 win in the 400 Medley with two untapered, unshaved swimmers [Sasser and K. Stern] suggest that a 3:47 might be a possibilty in March. K. Stern’s 4:57 in the 500 free and Sasser’s 2:03 in the 200 IM are candidates for improvements next month. Ross in the fly and free looked strong last night. So did Norsworthy in the breast.

Heath was not on my radar screen until the past few weeks. Also to be watched are 100 backstrokers, Hoff and Parker of U of Wisconsin- La Crosse.

Let’s begin some speculation about the relays at Nationals.    After the NESCAC championships, we now know the potential of the Middlebury, Amherst and Williams relay teams.  Kenyon and Amherst have a “top 3” time in all 5 relays.  As they did at NESCAC’s, I predict that Amherst will focus at Nationals on the three free relays and the 400 Medley. I think they have a chance at the 400, 800 and 400 Medley using the two Sterns, Sasser and a stroke specialist.  Obviously Kenyon has a lot of power in their tank that they have not yet displayed this season.  Denison has 4 top 3’s and looks very strong in the 200 medley.  Middlebury will be a factor in the 200 free.  I am surprised that Emory has only one “top 3” time –the 800 free relay.  Is Psaris still swimming for Emory?

Neswim:

It’s great to see you back on this board. Amherst does have a chance to place 2nd, but they have to swim to all their present lofty positions on the psyche sheet. Not much wiggle room to make up for a sub-par swim or two. Williams really surprised me last weekend. Almost every swimmer swam faster than I expected. If they can continue with those time drops, they will certainly be in the mix.