Women’s 2008 National Championships Predictions

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    • #12935
      Nescacfan
      Member

      In the National Championship forum, there is a thread predicting the top swimmers in the 2008 men’s national championship. I thought that a thread about the women’s chances in this forum might generate some discussion. I based my predictions on performances to date [DIII Top Times]and on performances in last year’s national championships .

      Women’s national championship predictions:

      200 FR- Kenyon, Emory, Amherst
      500 Fr- Arad, Wenzlau, Horvat
      200 IM- Orstein, Ertel, Sasser
      50 Fr- Coombs, Carlton, K. Stern
      400 MR- Kenyon, Amherst, Denison

      200 MR- Kenyon, Denison, Emory
      400 IM- Brady, Lesher, Nicholson
      100 Fly- Kephart, Ross, Ertel
      200 Fr- Brady, K. Stern,Westby
      100 Br- Orstein, Mensel, Roberts
      100 Bk- Sasser, Coombs, Evans,
      800 FR- Amherst, Kenyon, Emory

      1650 FR- Straub, Horvat, Lederer
      200 Bk- Sasser, Evans, Nicholson
      100 Fr- Coombs, Ertel, K. Stern
      200 Br- Orstein, Price, Hunter
      200 Fly- Ross, Kephart, Brady
      400 FR- Kenyon, Amherst, Denison

      As Nescacfan, I have picked 4 NESCAC women swimmers Amanda Nicholson, Marika Ross, Kendra Stern and Brittany Sasser to do well. Stern is a newcomer and has yet to be really tested. We know what the other three can do at nationals. I am sure that many will disagree with my pick of Amherst to defend its 800 free championship, especially with Kenyon already having recorded a 7:30.78 in early December. I think Amherst is capable of a 7:25 this year. My predictions asssume that Amherst loads up all three freestyle relays with Sasser, K. Stern and M. Stern and one other freestyler and the 400 Medley with Sasser, Fitzgerald, K. Stern and M. Stern.

      It’s not easy to pick the right events for some versatile swimmers such as Ertel, Orstein and Brady. I have Brady swimming both the 400 IM and 200 Free on Day 2.. That’s probably not going to happen. The 200 IM might be her choice for Day 1. Orstein can choose between the 100 Breast and 400 IM on Day 2. I think I have Ertel in the events with her best shot at winning and they are spread over the three days. It is interesting to note that Ertel has been swimming the back legs in the medley relays to make room for Brady in the fly.

      I look for Emory to show the most improvement in the last half of the seasaon. They have several swimmers away this semester and I expect Psaris will get back to her times. In my opinion, Emory can’t catch Kenyon, but they look like a sure second. At this point, I predict a Denison/Amherst battle for third.

    • #42603

      I see that you do not have Coker (Kenyon) listed in the top 3 of any events……………I think that she will be a contender in the 100, 200 back at least.

    • #42604
      Nescacfan
      Member

      I agree that Coker will place well in the 100 and 200 back events at Nationals[she has top 3 times in both events at the moment], but CMU newcomer Evans looks very fast. Coombs in the 100 and Nicholson in the 200 have proven themselves in the past. Their present times , just like those of Sasser, are no indication of what their times will be in March.

    • #42605
      griz
      Member

      I’m going to show my bias, but why not Kelly Norsworthy in the breaststroke events? She is the second and third fastest swimmer ever, respectively, in those events. She was abroad first semester last year, so her times are a bit off. I’d say she has a pretty good shot at getting top 3 (she was 4th last year). In her most fastest year at nationals, she was a 1:06.8/2:26.6 at this point in the season. To date this year, she has gone a 1:07.6/2:27.7. So she’s a second off…she’s still going to have a pretty good taper (as most Colby swimmers have shown over the years).

    • #42606
      Nescacfan
      Member

      @griz wrote:

      I’m going to show my bias, but why not Kelly Norsworthy in the breaststroke events? She is the second and third fastest swimmer ever, respectively, in those events. She was abroad first semester last year, so her times are a bit off. I’d say she has a pretty good shot at getting top 3 (she was 4th last year). In her most fastest year at nationals, she was a 1:06.8/2:26.6 at this point in the season. To date this year, she has gone a 1:07.6/2:27.7. So she’s a second off…she’s still going to have a pretty good taper (as most Colby swimmers have shown over the years).

      I’m a big Kelly Norsworthy fan. It seemed to me that her times are a little slower this season than two years ago, but I could be wrong about that. Last year, she was away for the fall semester and swam very well at Nationals. I think you will agree that the 100 breast is her best event. There appear to be 5-6 women who can break 1:05 this year. The third spot on the podium may require a sub 1:04 swim. I sure hope Norsworthy can end up there. She is, by far, the best breaststroker in NESCAC.

    • #42607

      Nordbrock from WashU should contend in both IM’s, it’s her senior year, I predict she will be finishing collegiate career hard.

    • #42608
      The Treat
      Member

      @BreakingTheSurface wrote:

      Nordbrock from WashU should contend in both IM’s, it’s her senior year, I predict she will be finishing collegiate career hard.

      IIRC, she was sick at last year’s nationals too.

    • #42609
      Nescacfan
      Member

      @BreakingTheSurface wrote:

      Nordbrock from WashU should contend in both IM’s, it’s her senior year, I predict she will be finishing collegiate career hard.

      Nordbrock is certainly swimming fast this year, but I am not sure that she will be a top 3 in March. The IM events are loaded. Nordbrock has her best shot, in my opinion, in the 200 IM. However, both Orstein and Sasser are also seniors and both will be looking to break 2:03. There are a bevy of other contenders including Ertel, Brady and Hunter. The 400 IM has defending record-holder Lesher returning along with two strong newcomers, Brady and Horvat. Don’t forget Orstein. Hunter also has recorded a fast time. One of my favorites, Nicholson , has yet to swim the event this season.

    • #42610

      both Orstein and Sasser are also seniors and both will be looking to break 2:03.

      Orstein swam a 2:01 in high school, not sure why she has never reached that in college.

    • #42611
      Nescacfan
      Member

      I wonder if Orstein will swim in the Olympic Trials this summer. Do you think any other current D-III women might give it a go? Williams alum Lindsay Payne is certainly going to give it a try.

    • #42612

      Do you think any other current D-III women might give it a go?

      Given the times the Kenyon women are posting, it would appear that several of them have the potential to try and qualify for the OT’s.

    • #42613
      Nescacfan
      Member

      [ @BreakingTheSurface wrote:

      Do you think any other current D-III women might give it a go?

      Given the times the Kenyon women are posting, it would appear that several of them have the potential to try and qualify for the OT’s.

      While the Kenyon women are swimming fast this year, no woman swimmer is close to an OT cut. That goes for all D-III women swimmers. I suspect that at Nationals or at league championships that matter[ e.g. NESCAC’s], we might have several swimmers with times in yards that, when converter to meters, would be make the cut.

      http://www.usaswimming.org/USASWeb/_Rainbow/Documents/c076aa53-1ba8-412d-aa18-366abc9cf785/08TrialsCuts.pdf

      However, converted times do not count for the Olympic Trials. To qualify, a D-III swimmer, if they have not done so previously, will have to swim a long course meters event in the next 5 or 6 months. I looked through the current list of 531 women OT qualifiers. I did not see any current D-III women swimmers. Lindsay Payne is ranked 13th in the 100 breast and 35th in the 200 breast. I understand that Orstein had a 200 IM time in high school that woould have qualified. Sasser’s back times [converted]from last year would get her under the wire–barely.

    • #42614
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Saturday’s Williams @ Amherst women’s dual meet produced some very fast times.  The meet was decided in the last event –the 400 free relay.  Amherst won the relay and the meet by 5 points.

      For Williams,  FY Ellen Ramsey set a pool record in the 200 Free with a  B time 1:54.05.    She also had B times in the 200 Back and 200 IM.    Junior Amanda Nicholson also had three B cuts — in the 100 Back, 500 Free and 200 IM.   Senior Crissy Haley added a B cut in the 200 Fly.
      Amherst FY Kendra Stern proved that she is one of the top new D-III talents.  Her 23.67 in the 50 Free and 51.41 in the 100 Free broke pool records  They are both A cuts and give her the top D-III  national times in those two events.    Her 57.77 in the 100 Fly was a strong B swim.    Senior Brittany Sasser broke pool records in the 100 back [56.28], 200 back [2:01.18] and 200 IM [2:05.31] events.   All three times are A cuts and the fastest times to date in among D-III women this season in those three events.  Senior Lisa Pritchard made a B-cut in the 100 back.

    • #42615

      So given the results of that meet and other DIII meets, any revisions to your predictions?

    • #42616
      Nescacfan
      Member

      @BreakingTheSurface wrote:

      So given the results of that meet and other DIII meets, any revisions to your predictions?

      I haven’t seen the results from the other meets, but the results in the Williams-Amherst dual meet suggest to me that Kendra Stern is now the favorite to win and, perhaps, set new records in the sprint freestyle events. Sasser’s time at this stage of the season suggest that she has a good chance to better her existing national backstroke records and has a shot at the 200 IM national title that has eluded her in the past.

    • #42617
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Looking at the top times list, the Kenyon women are leading the pack in all of the relay events except for the 400 Free. Will the Kenyon women sweep all five relays at Nationals. Denison, to date, looks even stronger than Emory in the relays. Will they be the ones pushing Kenyon?

    • #42618

      I agree, it will be Denison, not Emory……………………..could Emory slip in the final standings?

    • #42619
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Kaitlyn Orstein established herself as the favorite to repeat as the 200 IM national champion with her swim at PAC Championships last night. Orstein also had a very fast 50 free leading off the 200 Free relay, but I doubt she swims that event at Nationals. Lauren Brady did not swim the 200 IM event for Kenyon last night. Watch for her to swim the 400 IM and 100 Fly today. Kenyon’s Tina Ertel had a nice “a-cut” 200 IM swim but not a 2:03 like Orstein. Kati Meirs of Kenyon had a strong swim in the 500 Free, establishing herself as one of the favorites in that event. The Denison relays looked strong last night, but Kenyon did not race their best combinations.

    • #42620
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Orstein continues to look strong. She swam a 1:03.24 in PAC championship prelims this am.

    • #42621
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Lauren Brady only exhibitioned the 100 fly this am. I assume that she is on track for a super taper for Nationals and is basically skipping NCAC’s. Denison’s Ksenia Golovkina swam a 1:04.89 in the 100 breast during NCAC prelims this am. I’ll be watching her time against Orstein tonight. At the halfway point, in my opinion, Orstein is swimmer of the weekend.

    • #42622
      swim10
      Member

      I don’t think this has been posted yet, but I’m surprised that nobody’s mentioned Keira Heath as a potential dark horse in some of the distance events. As a transfer this year from Tennessee to Gettysburg, she swam pretty damn fast last year posting a 17:04, 4:59, & 4:25 all in-season times before she quit in December. While I don’t know what kind of shape she’s in, I’m pretty sure she hasn’t undergone a full taper yet and based on her past I wouldn’t be shocked if she pulled something of an upset in the 1650, 500 or the 400 IM.

    • #42623
      The Treat
      Member

      @swim10 wrote:

      I don’t think this has been posted yet, but I’m surprised that nobody’s mentioned Keira Heath as a potential dark horse in some of the distance events. As a transfer this year from Tennessee to Gettysburg, she swam pretty damn fast last year posting a 17:04, 4:59, & 4:25 all in-season times before she quit in December. While I don’t know what kind of shape she’s in, I’m pretty sure she hasn’t undergone a full taper yet and based on her past I wouldn’t be shocked if she pulled something of an upset in the 1650, 500 or the 400 IM.

      i had no idea she was a transfer. was it discussed here before?

    • #42624
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Orstein just swam a 103.03 in the 100 breast. That time would have won at Nationals last year.

    • #42625
      HasBeen2247
      Member

      Liv Zaleski 55:31 100 fly

    • #42626

      Who should we be watching at UAA’s that will figure in the NCAA championship mix?

    • #42627
      HasBeen2247
      Member

      Leigh Psaris

    • #42628

      Meredith Nordbrock, Kelly Kono for Wash U.

    • #42629
      danishfish05
      Member

      what times do you think will get invited in the 400IM?

    • #42630
      Nescacfan
      Member

      4:34.99 and better.

    • #42631
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Last night’s Day 1 Finals at NESCAC championships bring Middlebury in the mix for the 200 Free Relay. Amherst’s 3:50 win in the 400 Medley with two untapered, unshaved swimmers [Sasser and K. Stern] suggest that a 3:47 might be a possibilty in March. K. Stern’s 4:57 in the 500 free and Sasser’s 2:03 in the 200 IM are candidates for improvements next month. Ross in the fly and free looked strong last night. So did Norsworthy in the breast.

    • #42632
      swim10
      Member

      Heath was 17:09.50 at Centennial Conference champs this weekend and won the field by 30 secs….i think she’ll be sub 17 at Nats

    • #42633
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Heath was not on my radar screen until the past few weeks. Also to be watched are 100 backstrokers, Hoff and Parker of U of Wisconsin- La Crosse.

    • #42634
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Let’s begin some speculation about the relays at Nationals.    After the NESCAC championships, we now know the potential of the Middlebury, Amherst and Williams relay teams.  Kenyon and Amherst have a “top 3” time in all 5 relays.  As they did at NESCAC’s, I predict that Amherst will focus at Nationals on the three free relays and the 400 Medley. I think they have a chance at the 400, 800 and 400 Medley using the two Sterns, Sasser and a stroke specialist.  Obviously Kenyon has a lot of power in their tank that they have not yet displayed this season.  Denison has 4 top 3’s and looks very strong in the 200 medley.  Middlebury will be a factor in the 200 free.  I am surprised that Emory has only one “top 3” time –the 800 free relay.  Is Psaris still swimming for Emory?

    • #42635
      neswim
      Member

      Team finish:

      1) Kenyon (this will be the 50th national swimming title)
      2) Amherst (quality over quantity)
      3) Denison (won’t be close to Kenyon this time around)
      4) Williams (can we revive talk of fastest Div III conference in the country, now?)
      5) Emory (could move up but will not challenge for title)

      Overall very fast meet and again Div III women times improve faster than men.

    • #42636
      Nescacfan
      Member

      Neswim:

      It’s great to see you back on this board. Amherst does have a chance to place 2nd, but they have to swim to all their present lofty positions on the psyche sheet. Not much wiggle room to make up for a sub-par swim or two. Williams really surprised me last weekend. Almost every swimmer swam faster than I expected. If they can continue with those time drops, they will certainly be in the mix.

    • #42637
      neswim
      Member

      Timed Finals takes on the NCAA Meet…also a link to USA Today article on Kenyon’s quest for its 50th national swimming title:

      http://www.timedfinals.com/13032008/preview-d-iii-womens-ncaa-championships/#more-2473

      All in all pretty consistent with predications here 1) Kenyon 2) Amherst 3) Denison and dog fight between Emory and Williams for fourth.

    • #42638
      swim5599
      Member

      Any chance we see the Younger Stern break Mccarty’s record in the 500 tonight. She was sitting at 1:54.0 at the 200, and then backed down considerably.

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