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November 14, 2007 at 3:26 pm #12806OutsideSmoker27Member
W&J looks to have brought in a couple of decent freshmen on each side. But for the men, this isn’t the 2005-06 rookie class by any means. For the women, I’m not sure how good their rookie class was that year.
The men’s meet: It’ll be interesting to see how the W&J distance freshmen (Smith and Mock) stack up against the Westminster distance veterans (Gebhardt and Senior) in head-to-head competition. Mancuso vs. Simpson in the fly could also be interesting. Also, a chance to try out that theory that the Titans are fallen apart in backstroke. Westminster should win the meet fairly easily, especially since there’s no diving. The Titans are loaded almost everywhere and the Presidents are too empty across too many events.
The women’s meet: A repeat of the 2005 finish would be great. Even if that doesn’t happen, it should be closer than the men’s meet. Depends on who swims what, and who has a good meet. My first-run impression: someone wins by less than 18.
November 14, 2007 at 4:20 pm #40547
Here’s my take:
I don’t know that W&J has really shown their cards completely – I think Smith, Mock, Niedig, and Boyer may be better overall than what they’ve done in the young season.
Assuming they go 16 events:
1000 – WC wins event (1,3,5)
200 – WJ wins event (I think this is an event where Orstein throws in a surprise)
100 back – WJ wins event (1,3,5)
100 breast – WC (1,2,3)
200 fly – WJ – Mancuso over Simpson just because it’s early in the season
50 – WC – I think this may be another one that Orstein’s been holding out on, but I think Whisman is too much for WJ. The meet could hinge on the sprints
100 – WC – same as the 50
200 back – WJ 1,2
200 breast WC – 1,2,3
500 – WJ 1,4 – I think Mancuso goes after Gebhardt here and gets him early in the season
100 fly – WC 1,2 – Simpson is good at the 100 all the time and I don’t think Mancuso does this one
200 IM – WJ 1,5 – If the sprints go at all in WJ’s favor this could decide the meet – it depends on whether Lehberger can beat Smith and whether Simpson does this instead of fly (Robson could handle the fly)
Relays – I think this is the biggest question mark. Neither team has put their best relays together yet so it’s hard to say what they can really do. I’m too lazy to go through all of the splits so far this year for each team. I think WC has the edge, but WJ may be able to grab one of these if the Titans aren’t careful.
So, right now I have the teams splitting the individuals, but WC winning their’s bigger (see 100 and 200 breast). If WJ pulls a couple surprises or WC comes out flat (which they have a tendency to be early in the year) then WJ could pull it out. I’m going to go out on a limb and call a WJ win by a very small margin.
November 14, 2007 at 6:05 pm #40548WCSwmFanMember
That is quite a limb your on, I just don’t see it, Westminster just doesn’t lose at home, the last two home losses the men have had are to CMU, and they were four years apart, I think WC has enough to get it done here, I’m more interested to see if the W&J men can actually mix it up in the Conference meet this year, as a team they haven’t shown up in a long time, it would be a much more interesting meet if there men could have more of an impact and get more swimmers into finals, if for no other reason than to make WC and GCC work harder.
November 14, 2007 at 6:23 pm #40549
Here’s my rationale:
1. Westminster is still good, but not what they’ve been – no Trunk, no experience at back (which looks to be somewhat strong for WJ), and a thin freshman class (in comparison to what they lost and what WJ brought in)
2. WC doesn’t hit their stride until December. I checked the old results and WJ nearly pulled of the upset the last time they went to WC. I think if GCC swam WC in November they would have a better chance at winning. That year WJ was closer to beating WC than GCC was, but WJ was way behind at PACs. Once WC swims that December meet they seem to become invincible.
3. It’s early in the season and WC doesn’t really know what WJ has. WJ hasn’t had any real competition and swam a lot of off events. There’s not much secret to WC’s roster
4. It’s a dual meet – winning an event is big, and I think WJ could win events even though they don’t have the depth to do that well at conference.
So, I agree that PACs won’t be much of a contest. WJ will have a few finalists but will finish 3rd overall, maybe a little closer to WC and GCC but not close enough to scare anyone. I’m sure you’re right about tonight, but I don’t think it’s a gimme.
November 15, 2007 at 4:39 am #40550OutsideSmoker27Member
Well, if Elroy’s logic is on target, I fear for the W&J men’s performance at the end of the season. I’m not saying it is on target, but a finish on the order of 2005 (where they failed to clear 450 points) is possible. I don’t think Behrend will beat them in February, but there may not be a huge gap.
I’m satisfied with calling Westminster dominant (over W&J) in distance and backstroke. Neither Gebhardt nor Senior was exceptional, but then they didn’t really have to be. The Mancuso-Simpson matchup never happened (thanks to strategic placement of Mancuso). 😡 Brandon Smith continues to live up to the North Allegheny name. Elroy was right about the surprise in the 200.
And as for the women’s meet, remind me to quit trying to predict it. I can’t even get the overall description right: close meet? No! It’s a W&J blowout. Westminster carries a total of 4 events out of 14. There were some close finishes here and there that could have swayed a few points their way, but I think a 20-point swing is on the generous side of that one.
On a side note, clever use of Orstein by Orstein. He puts her in the 2free, 2back, 1fly (and then a spot on the end relay) and lets Westminster take both breast events. The fact that they won the medley relay handily without her bodes well for them. I wonder if they don’t have another finish like 2005, too.
November 15, 2007 at 4:48 am #40551
I’ll eat crow. This meet didn’t turn out anything like I thought it would. Some close races at the beginning of the meet turned into lopsided wins for WC later in the meet. Did WJ have any best times? Near best times? That was awful…
November 15, 2007 at 2:57 pm #40552WCSwmFanMember
My take on this is that the W&J men were clearly out classed last night, but it looks like there were some exciting races. Other than WC clearly being better, I think Orstein put together a terrible line up, and he historically has done that, he gets creative with the woman and it looks like he just draws events out of a hat for the men, when the best swimmer on your team, Mancuso in my opinion, can’t win an event you have a problem. I think Orstein needs to re-evaluate his coaching style a little bit
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