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Ultimately, I think if you want to break into that top 5 at nationals, you need a double-digit freshman class each year. If we had been able to continue with the Duda and Schneider classes that would have happened (I blame Port and Miller leaving recruiting for that).
In a rough estimate, I would say 50% of freshman actually “pan out” — ie. swim 4 years and improve at least a bit.
Consider my class, which coming in, was one of the best recruiting classes all time at Kzoo (at the time).
Steve Tisch — “A” recruit. 52.1 bk; 52.1 fly; 47/1:44 freestyler.
Result: Swam two years. 52 mid fly/back freshman year (went to nationals); slowed down sophomore year and quit junior year. *Bust*Brett Robbins — “A” recruit. 51.9 fly; 53.0 bk; 48/1:45 freestyler.
Result: Swam 4 years and improved. *Success*Jon Sander — “B” recruit. Solid in everything 1:45 free; 1:56 IM; etc.
Result: Swam 3 years and never really improved. *Bust*Matt Sheeran — “B” recruit. 53.0 back.
Result: Swam 4 years, improved a bit in everything. Borderline nationals every year. *Success*Mark Hannum — “B” recruit. 22.0/48/1:46
Result: Swam 3 years and improved a bit. Almost went to nationals on relay. Technically a *Bust*Jussi Thomas — “C” recruit. 22 mid 49 freestyler (??)
Result: Swam 4 years and improved. Nationals on relay. *Success*Byron Brown — “C” recruit. Decent Diver.
Result: Dove all 4 years and improved a bit. *Success*Matt Evans — “C” recruit. Decent Diver.
Result: Dove one year. *Bust*That’s 4 out of 8 “panning out”. It seems like this is pretty fairly typical?
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My class,
Tony Holt — “A” recruit. Amazing diver.
Result: Dove for 2.5 years, won 3 national titles and 6 conference titles, but quit before nationals junior year. *In the middle*Kyle Oberhill — “B” recruit. Very good diver.
Result: Went to nationals, but then quit after 2 years. *Bust*Derek Jansen — “B” recruit. 4:11 IM, 9:50 1000.
Result: Won 2 MIAA titles and was borderline for Nationals each year with a butt load of B cuts. *Success*Andrew Kurtz — “B” recruit. 59 breast, 22.1 50.
Result: Stud. *Success*Anthony Duda — “B” recruit. Don’t remember times.
Result: Swam for 2 years, improved a bit, went to Nationals on a relay. *Bust*Josh Pfau — “B” recruit. 53.4/1:57 back, 2:00 IM
Result: Swam all 4 years, went to Nationals, dropped time. *Success*Mike Arce — “C” recruit. 4:55 500, 55 back.
Results: Swam all 4 years, went to Nationals on a relay, several B cuts, improved a ton. *Success*4/7 were a success, hard to classify Holt.
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Those are actually great results, class-wise.
Consider the year after me (Class of ’99)
John Latham — “A” recruit. 1:53 IM; 52 back; 47/1:44 free
Result: Swam 4 years and improved. *Success*Garret Olsen — “B” recruit. 21 high fr
Result: Swam freshman year, ind. qualifying for nationals — then quit. *Bust*Aaron Ford — “C” recruit. 53 fly
Result: Swam freshman year, improved greatly and transferred out. *Bust*JJ Wilner — “C” recruit. 4:50/16:40 fr
Result: Swam one, maybe two years. Never improved. *Bust*
Posed for Playgirl: *Success*Mike Tsipursky — “C” recruit. 1:02 br
Result: Swam two years, never improved. *Bust*That’s 1 out of 5!!!
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For what it’s worth, here’s my class (’97). I don’t know any incoming times, but I don’t think anyone could have been considered a stud except for Chuck and maybe Garth and Tack. BTW, this is the class that replaced Jeff Walker and Marvin Im (among others), which might be why we got 3rd at MIAA and dropped from 6th to 54th at nationals my freshman year, and why Miller had to swim fly on the medley relays…
PEOPLE WHO SWAM THRU THEIR SENIOR YEAR:
Jeremy Hansen: A 2 or 3-event consol heat scorer at MIAAs when he wasn’t swimming exhibition. He drove my car into a ditch on the way down to nationals in Atlanta one year. Missed junior year for study abroad.
Scott Jablonski: Decent sprinter, went to nationals on relays his senior year. Probably the best all-around athlete on the team. Beat up Sheeran a lot.
Chuck Kemeny: I think a 59 breaststroker coming in, maybe got down to 58. Any distance above a 100, and there was a precipitous dropoff in quality. But split a mean 50 breast on the short medlies. Made nationals on relays. Twisted his nut and had to be taken to the hospital.
Tony Michaels: Consistent finals heat scorer at MIAAs in back and IM. Instigated pretty much every bad thing that anyone ever did and never got in trouble.
Garth Miller: National qualifying diver. Provider of deeply discounted libations from Munchie Mart. Got revenge against Albion for beating us in ’94.
Myself: Consol heat scorer at MIAAs. Missed junior year for study abroad (my only regret was not being there in ’96 when we took the MIAA crown back from Hope). Basically provided atmosphere.
GUYS WHO DIDN’T PAN OUT:
Mike Volk: Never even made it to league meet his freshman year. We would do 25 sprints off the block during taper and he just froze in mid-stroke in the middle of the pool. Something to do with his vertebrae/spinal cord.
Ryan LaBudda: Quit after sophomore year, citing shoulder problems. Decent distance guy, especially for being 5′ 9″ 200+ lbs.
Steve Tack: High School All-American at Bloomfield Hills Lahser (sprint free relay). But he also played football and never really could get into decent swimming shape after he finally joined the team in mid-November. Only swam one year.
So, 6 out of 9 who were decent contributors in one form or another.
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My point being — you will lose half the class throughout 4 years, whether they are an “A” or a “D” recruit.
I was also not counting on every single one of those recruits to be national caliber swimmers… I know you’re being a smart ass, but I really think you need those numbers to break our “6th place” barrier at nationals.
You get ten freshmen —
2 “A” recruits that could go to nationals their freshman year
4 “B” recruits that have the potential to qualify in a year or twoIf half of them are gone by senior year, you have:
3 seniors
4 juniors
4 sophomores
2 freshman13 man team at nationals. That could place very well at nats.
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