Pan Pacs

On the men’s side, Hansen, Phelps, and Lochte will be disgusting. I can’t imagine any of them were fully tapered for nationals last week. I think Hansen can go under both his records, and I see Phelps finally breaking his 200 fly WR from three years ago if he decides to swim it. If Kitajima from Japan swims the breaststrokes, those should be great races with Hansen.

I think Hoff will finally erase the last drug-tainted record in the book, the women’s 200 I.M. set by a doped-up Chinese woman at worlds in 1997. My money’s on Coughlin to break her own WR in the 100 Back as well. Best race on the women’s side will be the 100 Free, with three Australians and two Americans having gone sub-54 seconds.

It’s been quite a while since I’ve written on here. I hope everyone is swimmerific. Not me though, I’m retired!

Since I’m a bit confused as to who is actually attending the meet, I’m reserving some event by event predictions until I can look at the heats sheats over at Omega. I’ve read that the South Africans will be there, which puzzles me because South Africa is definitely nowhere near the Pacific (not that I mind them being there!). So give me a couple days. I must say, I also expect big things from Phelps. I highly doubt he was swimming nationals on much rest since he went 1:45 in his 200 free a couple weeks earlier so I am excited to see what he can do.

@Colbybr wrote:

Since I’m a bit confused as to who is actually attending the meet, I’m reserving some event by event predictions until I can look at the heats sheats over at Omega. I’ve read that the South Africans will be there, which puzzles me because South Africa is definitely nowhere near the Pacific (not that I mind them being there!). So give me a couple days. I must say, I also expect big things from Phelps. I highly doubt he was swimming nationals on much rest since he went 1:45 in his 200 free a couple weeks earlier so I am excited to see what he can do.

The psych sheets can be found at:

http://www.panpacs2006.com/index.htm

You’ll note that the Lenton, Jones and other top notch Aussie women sprinters are not at this meet. That means the US women should clean up. However, Shipper is there and no doubt is gunning for the 200 fly w.r.

On the men’s side Hackett is not swimming (this was well known). Also interesting to see that Lochte has changed his event line-up considerably. Does anyone else really think he’ll swim the 400 free? He’s gunning for Phelps in the 200 im and Peirsol in the 100 back but is passing on the challenge in the 400 im and 200 back. Phelps will not swim Crocker in the 100 fly…is he saving it up to challenge Peirsol in the 200 back?

World record possiblities:
Phelps 200 fly and 400 im (but he is doubling 200free/200fly)
Hoff 200 im (more a wish then reality)
Shipper 200 fly (she was robbed at Worlds last year)
Peirsol 200 back (Phelps pushes him to worlds best)
Womens 4X200 free (they take it back from Germans)

Don’t think Hansen can repeat performance (I’m remembering OT 2004) but he will beat Kitajima.

@My Spoon’s Too Big! wrote:

On the men’s side, Hansen, Phelps, and Lochte will be disgusting. I can’t imagine any of them were fully tapered for nationals last week.

Hansen, yes, Phelps, yes, Lochte, no. That guy was fully rested. He was swimming 2:02’s 4 weeks ago.

I bet Hall wins the 50 in around 22.2

No WRs, 0, zilch, nada.

Phelps was fully rested at Nationals, he might drop a little time here and add a little time there, but won’t return to form. He is on a 4 year plan and this is not the final meet, he’ll be fine for the future but nothing special at Pan pacs.

Piersol won’t get close to his WR in the 2back, he was also fully rest at Nationals. he wil be pushed by Phelps but only to get a fast time, not to do anything special.

Hoff won’t break at WRs but i will keep wishing with you. I DO think she’ll break the IMs eventually, but not at Pan Pacs.

Hansen will be slower, but still win both.

@DonCheadle wrote:

I bet Hall wins the 50 in around 22.2

You really think he’ll beat Schoeman? I can see him beating Lezak, who often doesn’t show at big meets and Jones, who is not very experienced but will beat Hall in future showdowns but what about Schoeman? Seems like a long shot bet to me.

Re Phelps/Lochte rest. I do believe Lochte was fully rested at Nationals, or close to it. That’s one possible explanation or the exit from 200 back/400 im (he is the sc w.r holder in the IM). For what its worth, Phelps stated back in the Spring that they were targeting PanPacs as the big meet in 2006.

After Looking at the Psyche sheets, I believe it would be boring for everyone involved to pick event by event. Some events seem like they only have US or AUS swimmers in the top 8. I highly doubt that Hall will win the 50 free, or that the winner won’t be faster than 22.2. Hall has often exceeded expectations, but as its a non olympic year I really don’t think he’s in top form. On the other hand, Schoeman just went 20.9 SCM, so I’d go in that direction. Also, this is totally based off the psyche sheet, but if Tae Hwan Park really is 16 and has been 15:00 in the 1500, I predict he will bust under that standard. Young distance swimmers seem to rocket up into contention (remember how quickly Larsen Jensen got up to international form).

Silentp: I agree that we probably won’t see a WR out of Peirsol. But there is no way this meet is going to have 0 wr’s. I would be willing to bet a D3 swimming donation that there are at least two wr’s broken.

I think we’ll see drops out of Piersol and Phelps.

If Hall goes 22.2, he still won’t get a medal. But 22.2 wouldn’t be bad for only training 7 weeks, and tapering for the last half of it : )

Hoff takes down the 2:09.7 record.

I don’t think we will see any records out of the Men’s side (maybe the Medlay relay), but other then that, I don’t think Hanson will swim faster (Olympic trials to the olympics!), Phelps and Peirsol I don’t think will be their best (but very fast). I don’t see anyone else setting a record from Australia, or anywhere else.

The Women’s side might see a couple. 100 free does come to mind. I don’t think Natalie Coughlin will dip under 1:00 unless she has to to win. Hoff will get the 200 IM record, but not at this meet.

I bet hardy, kirk, and jendrick will swim faster than they did at nationals. I wonder if they were all even fully rested? Because they were all going 1:07’s mid season easily and they were the only 3 who could take the top 3, so they didnt have to worry about making the team.

I think that its foolish to discount Ryan Lochte so quickly. I realize that he is not quite at Phelps’ level as far as LC swimming is concerned, but nonetheless he has stepped up again and again and again when the time counted. Also, don’t forget that he went 412 in the 400IM, which from what I understand was a pretty big drop. Lochte, while an amazing swimmer, still is improving by leaps and bounds and I would not be the least bit surprised if he unleashed at Pan Pacs.
Other than Lochte, I also think discounting Michael Phelps is a bad idea. There was no reason for him to fully taper for summer nationals. Barring a complete meltdown, he was practically guaranteed a spot on the team headed to Pan Pacs. I realize he is on a “four-year plan,” but even so, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we see at least 1 WR out of him.

Phelps is going to be beat in the 400 IM, i will call it right now. Lazlo from Hungary is putting the smack down and winning the event. Lochte is a great 200 IMer but beyond that, won’t be a threat in anything else.

@silentp wrote:

Phelps is going to be beat in the 400 IM, i will call it right now. Lazlo from Hungary is putting the smack down and winning the event. Lochte is a great 200 IMer but beyond that, won’t be a threat in anything else.

I would be cautious about Lazlo. He’s good, but I think that Phelps would need to be far off his form overall for him not to be able to rise to the occasion. I would love to see a race, though.

And as for Lochte, I think that he is gonna bust out in long course at some point, and why not at Pan Pacs? If he does, he will give great races. Maybe he won’t win, but he will make Phelps and Piersol earn their titles.

@Derek wrote:

I would be cautious about Lazlo. He’s good, but I think that Phelps would need to be far off his form overall for him not to be able to rise to the occasion. I would love to see a race, though.

And as for Lochte, I think that he is gonna bust out in long course at some point, and why not at Pan Pacs? If he does, he will give great races. Maybe he won’t win, but he will make Phelps and Piersol earn their titles.

Considering that at the most recent taper meets, Lazlo went a 4:09 while Phelps went a 4:10, i will say it would not take a miracle for him to win.

Lochte busted out at the last Olympic Trials, he is done busting. He will be 2nd in the 200 IM and likely pushe Phelps but Piersol makes Lochte look like a chump in the 2Back. 1:58 is good, but nothing to get excited about. He is a short course guy.

@silentp wrote:

Considering that at the most recent taper meets, Lazlo went a 4:09 while Phelps went a 4:10, i will say it would not take a miracle for him to win.

Lochte busted out at the last Olympic Trials, he is done busting. He will be 2nd in the 200 IM and likely pushe Phelps but Piersol makes Lochte look like a chump in the 2Back. 1:58 is good, but nothing to get excited about. He is a short course guy.

That’s a good point about Lazlo and Phelps, but I still gotta hand it to Phelps to rise to the occasion. He IS that good.

Lochte has been a short course swimmer because until 2006, he was in college. It was all short course. He is a great swimmer and it is just a matter of time until his long course catches up to his short course.

It is hard to say if Lochte’s short course swimming will translate into long course at some point in his career. Neil Walker is a good example. 19.07 in the 50 free, 44.96 100 back, but he was never as good in Long Course, and he trains with a team (Texas) that produces long course and short course swimmers. Don’t get me wrong, Lochte and Walker are amazing swimmers with a coupld of Olympic medals to hang around their necks, they just been better short course.

@swim5599 wrote:

Again with Lochte are we forgetting that he just went 1:56.7 in the 200 Im, that is a second drop from last summer and he is the only other guy ever under 1:57. That was a great swim, and if Phelps is not quite on in the 200 IM Lochte will take it. Lazlo does not stand a chance in the 200 IM, but you guys are right he might win that 400 Im.

Hey, give me some credit here, it’s not you guys, it’s me saying he will win it, everyone else is disagreeing.

No one is taking anything away from Lochte, i just don’t believe he will do much in non-IM events. His 4:11 was also impressive and might be faster than the great Tom Dolan ever went.

For a short while Neil Walker was the best swimmer in the world. In 1997, he went a 49.5 in the 100 M Free (the WR was 48.2 and noone was going under 49 regularily) he went a 52.76 in the 100 M Fly (American Record) and a 54.7 (WR 53.8) in the 100 back. He was top 5 inthe world in all 3 events. I don’t think that he was better or worse in yards, than meters, but his LCM times became somewhat pedestrian quickly. He would have medaled in all 3 events in Atlanta with those times. The wave of talented swimmers that sprung up leading to the 2000 Olympics sort of washed him out.

50 Free 22.09 vs 19.07
100 Free: 48.55 vs 42.35
100 Fly 52.76 vs 45.89

The exception may be the 100 back. That 44.9 stands out.

I stand corrected. Looking at Neil Walkers and Ryan Lochte’s short course times and the records they set, by leaps and bounds, I sometimes figure they should do the same in Meters. IF Lochte swam in 2000 or 1996, he would have came away with a lot of medals.

@swim5599 wrote:

Ok I’m sorry Silent P, Lochte 4:11 was a smidge faster than Dolan’s 4:11.7. To me Dolan just epitomized a tough hard nosed racer. He just would not lose. No Question Phelps is the more talented swimmer, but something about Dolan and that cocky ass attitude just made him cool. Before him no one in their right mind would have thought of the 400 Im as a cool event, Dolan put that event on the map.

I agree 100%, how can anyone not love Dolan? He is a guy to be idolized for sure. The pinnacle of what hard work can do.

@silentp wrote:

@swim5599 wrote:

Ok I’m sorry Silent P, Lochte 4:11 was a smidge faster than Dolan’s 4:11.7. To me Dolan just epitomized a tough hard nosed racer. He just would not lose. No Question Phelps is the more talented swimmer, but something about Dolan and that cocky ass attitude just made him cool. Before him no one in their right mind would have thought of the 400 Im as a cool event, Dolan put that event on the map.

I agree 100%, how can anyone not love Dolan? He is a guy to be idolized for sure. The pinnacle of what hard work can do.

ive heard that he was a bit of a cry baby. heard that he would over play his asthma sometimes. i mean he did amazing things despite having that setback, but there are reasons not to love him.

If Dolan had been able to stay healthy through ’04, I believe that he could (although not necessarily would) have won the 4 IM in Athens.

@Chris Knight wrote:

If Dolan had been able to stay healthy through ’04, I believe that he could (although not necessarily would) have won the 4 IM in Athens.

I like Dolan as much as the next guy but he would have struggled to make the team, let alone win gold. If he had made the team, he likely would have been a leading candidate for silver, but almost no shot at gold.

I think Backstroke translates poorest from yards to Meters. Remember Retterer? That guy was just as fast as Lochte and Walker in yards, but I don’t know if he ever went a 55, much less a 54. Ehh, I think he did go a 55 high at the 96 trials.

Did anyone notice that their is a European bacstroker who went a 53.5 a 1:55 at Euro champs. He was a lot faster than Peirsol on the same week that they both tapered.

About Dolan: I remember reading that ‘Snick would use him in practice. Sometimes practice is over-rated though (I am sure the Answer agrees with that statement). Maybe that is why he has the cry baby rap? Swim5599: Do you remember reading about Vendt going a 3:43 in practice ( 400 IM)? Crazy.

Gary Hall Jr. kicked a 50M free in 26 in practice.

@Press Conference wrote:

Reporter: “So you and coach Brown got caught up on Saturday about practice?”

Iverson: “If I can’t practice, I can’t practice. It is as simple as that. It ain’t about that at all. It’s easy to sum it up if you’re just talking about practice. We’re sitting here, and I’m supposed to be the franchise player, and we’re talking about practice. I mean listen, we’re sitting here talking about practice, not a game, not a game, not a game, but we’re talking about practice. Not the game that I go out there and die for and play every game last it’s my last but we’re talking about practice man. How silly is that?

Now I know that I’m supposed to lead by example and all that but I’m not shoving that aside like it don’t mean anything. I know it’s important, I honestly do but we’re talking about practice. We’re talking about practice man. (laughter from the media crowd) We’re talking about practice. We’re talking about practice. We’re not talking about the game. We’re talking about practice. When you come to the arena, and you see me play, you’ve seen me play right, you’ve seen me give everything I’ve got, but we’re talking about practice right now. (more laughter)
.

That sure doesn’t make me like Iverson a whole lot. In an individual sport, if you can get away with that attitiude then okay. However, a team sport is something else. When there are other guys depending on you, you can’t have a cavalier attitude towards working with them.

Of course, if somebody playing an individual sport says that, it just makes me wonder if they could be better if they DID put in the practice.

@silentp wrote:

@Chris Knight wrote:

If Dolan had been able to stay healthy through ’04, I believe that he could (although not necessarily would) have won the 4 IM in Athens.

I like Dolan as much as the next guy but he would have struggled to make the team, let alone win gold. If he had made the team, he likely would have been a leading candidate for silver, but almost no shot at gold.

We’ve all read about how losing once to Wilkens pushed Dolan to the ’00 gold and 2nd WR in the event. Imagine the motivation he would have had having lost his record to not one, but two countrymen. It’s pure speculation, but I think that had he been able to he would have pushed himself like nothing we’ve ever seen. I mean he did an intense 30K day for the Curl-Burke swimathon shortly after 9/11 – clearly he had something left.

Dolan might have had problems pushing himself in practice sometimes. I remember hearing Urbaneck (sp?) say that he passed out a couple of time becuase of lack of Oxygen from his asthma problems. No matter what, it has to wear on your mind if that happens to you.

The athsma was what forced his retirement, not age or feeling he couldn’t challenge Phelps and Vendt. He just couldn’t train anymore.

To get back on topic, it looks like I wasn’t too far off the mark. Michael Phelps looks to be on his game going into tonight’s 200 fly final. The real story of the games so far though is RYAN LOCHTE coming in ahead of Peirsol in the 100 back, albeit in prelims. 53.78 is pretty damn fast…Can’t wait for tonight’s results.

if you look at the men’s 100 back final results, there are two things to note…

1) the final was swum in a perfect symmetry of countries.
i.e. RSA-AUS-JPN-USA-USA-JPN-AUS-RSA

2) the results are blocked by country in the A-final.
i.e. USA-USA-JPN-JPN-AUS-AUS-RSA-RSA

i just thought that was cool…no?

Gotta be a pretty heartbreaking final for Randall Bal. 53.8 just ain’t good enough to get him to world champs.

100 back is amazing and the 3 deep for the US… 3 guys under 54 is AMAZING… too bad one did it in the boner heat. I still do not think lochte will challenge in the 2back but the 2IM should be very fun.

Anyone else see the age of the runner up in the 200 free? 1989 birthday, so probably 17, slight chance of 16. He went 1:47, but then again, Thorpe was 1:44 by that age… so it’s tough to know.

@silentp wrote:

100 back is amazing and the 3 deep for the US… 3 guys under 54 is AMAZING… too bad one did it in the boner heat. I still do not think lochte will challenge in the 2back but the 2IM should be very fun.

Anyone else see the age of the runner up in the 200 free? 1989 birthday, so probably 17, slight chance of 16. He went 1:47, but then again, Thorpe was 1:44 by that age… so it’s tough to know.

The kid IS 16 ( 9/27), Thrope was a 1:46.00 at that age. Park Tae Hwan is only 5-10. He will go under 15 in the 1500, his better event.

Tae Hwan Park 3:45.7 to win the 400 free.

I visited the Pan Pacs website, but couldn’t find any results? Anyone help me out with a link? Thanks.

@The15mMark wrote:

I visited the Pan Pacs website, but couldn’t find any results? Anyone help me out with a link? Thanks.

http://omegatiming.com/swimming/racearchives/2006/victoria_2006/index.htm

200 back and 400 FR are amazing!!!

@silentp wrote:

200 back and 400 FR are amazing!!!

Thanks for the link, silentp. You are most helpful on this website! I’ve always been amazed at how the best can continue to find ways to become even faster, especially when the top tier of atheletes are already pushing the limits of human capability.

How about Hansen bringing that 200 breast back like a champ? Great swim, one of the better individual performances of the meet.

200 IM has the gap closing. Lochte will beat Phelps sometimes soon, but I am not sure if he’ll do it at the big stage of the Olympics. Lochte now has 3 events, but the 400 IM and 100 back still might not put him in the Olympics because those are 2 events that are 3 deep for the US.

50 Free was great because it’s the 1st time for Jones under 22, and he’s still improving.

1500 was a bit surprising, i thought the Korean would go for it but it looked like (from splits) that he swam to win, and did win. His last 200 was faster than his first 200. Lots of talent, we’ll see if he uses it.

@silentp wrote:

50 Free was great because it’s the 1st time for Jones under 22, and he’s still improving.

It was great, but it was his 2nd time under 22 (21.9 two weeks ago). He’s on fire right now.