PAC’s Predictions

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    • #12151
      gccswimmer16
      Member

      Seeing as the invitationals are now over, I figured it was time to start making some predictions about what will happen at the end of the year. Looking at the results from the Wooster and Longnecker Invites, it seems as though Westminster was tapered, and GCC was a little bit rested. GCC’s drops were not significant across the board, and I know from their workouts over the past week that they did not have a taper for the meet. So here goes nothing. . .

      2FRel: 1) Grove City 2) Westminster 3) W and J

      Grove City is once again too strong in this event for Westminster, especially since they lost Gesacion. Burns should step in nicely, but it won’t be enough to knock off GCC.

      500: 1) Cressman 2) Mancuso 3) Senior

      Cressman continues to get faster, and I think he will be under 4:40 at the end of the year, which should be enough to get Mancuso. I am basing a 2nd place finish for Mancuso on his performance last year. If he continues to perform like he has been at the beginning of this year, give Senior second and Gebhardt third.

      50: 1) Whitbeck 2) Courage 3) Trunk

      By far the deepest event of the meet, it should be a horserace. I’m going to give the nod to Whitbeck, because I think he will continue to improve throughout the year. They’ll all easily be under 21, and it will probably take about a 20.4 to win it.

      2IM: 1) Rady 2) Gilbert 3) Simpson

      Rady continue to look strong in the IM, and he has evidently been working on the fly. I think he’ll have just enough to edge Gilbert, who has continue to improve in the last two years. If Simpson swims this instead of the 500, he’ll get third, barely, over Peter Larsen.

      1Meter: Not sure about the diving right now, but I’ll go with Riddell from GCC.

      4MRel: 1) Westminster 2) GCC 3) W and J

      This one is going to be real close. I’m giving the edge to Westminster right now after seeing Pat Smith’s times in the 100 backstroke. Westminster, despite having the faster stroke swimmers the past two years, has not won this race, so it could go either way. The question is whether or not Gilbert and Larsen will be able to make up any time on Lehberger and Simpson. If it’s close at all going into the freestyle leg, give the win to GCC.

      2MRel: 1) GCC 2) Westminster 3) W and J

      GCC’s sprints are much too strong, and Westminster will not be able to hold them off. Caleb will get the lead off of the backstroke leg and they won’t look back. Look for GCC to get atleast a B cut to win the race.

      1000: 1) Gebhardt 2) Senior 3) Barron

      I’m thinking Cressman won’t swim this one since it is not an NCAA event, and he’s a pretty good 4 IMer, so I’ll give the nod to the defending champ. I think Barron will be a lot faster this year in this event, but will it be enough to overtake the Westminster distance swimmers?

      4IM: 1) Cressman 2) Mancuso 3) Smith

      If he swims it, he should be able to win it. He’s 4:17 in season, and i think he could go under 4:10. That should be enough. Smith’s second place streak may end this year.

      1fly: 1) Simpson 2) Larsen 3) Zinz

      I think that Simpson may have just enough to edge Larsen this year in the event. Larsen has gained a lot of muscle mass over the summer and is swimming very well, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he takes it. I think that Barker will give Zinz a run for his money for third, as well. It will take a sub 52 to be in the top 3.

      2free: 1) Courage 2) Trunk 3) Snyder

      Caleb will take this one in a real close race, with Trunk in at a close second place. Look for Snyder to have a big year and take third after working real hard over the summer to get stronger. Should be a great race.

      1breast: 1) Gilbert 2) Lehberger 3) Keagle

      The Westminster breastroke quarter has taken over for the backstrokers, and they will be very strong in this event. Give the edge to Gilbert in his senior year. He wants the B cut and the school record, and I think this will drive him to regain his 100 breastroke title.

      1back: 1) Smith 2) Hothem 3) Werner

      Pat Smith looked incredible at the Wooster invite (I still can’t believe that 52.4. . . what swim) He should have enough to win the title. The real question is, will his time be enough to make it to NCAA’s? Let’s hope the conference can get a stroke swimmer out to Texas.

      800 Relay: 1) GCC 2) Westminster 3) W and J

      I don’t think the race can get any closer than last year. I think GCC may have enough to get close to the B cut, and that Westminster will be right behind them. Westminster is the defending champion in the race, and they do return everyone, but I think that Cressman will be the difference in this race. Should be another great race that we’ll be talking about the next morning.

      1650: 1) Cressman 2) Gebhardt 3) Senior

      I think that Gebhardt and Senior will both improve, but Cressman may prove to be too much to handle.

      2back: 1) Smith 2) Hothem 3) Werner

      Smith should make it a repeat, with Hothem and Werner in a battle for second. Once again, hopefully a B cut for Smith in this one.

      1free: 1) Courage 2) Trunk 3) Whitbeck

      The defending National Champion should be a 44 low in this meet. Trunk will challenge, but it won’t be enough. Whitbeck will have just enough to get third.

      2breast: 1) Lehberger 2) Gilbert 3) Yarzebinski

      I think Lehbeerger will have a little bit too much for Gilbert in the 200. He had such a fantastic race this year, I think he will have another great performance with a B cut. Once again, hopefully he’ll be able to head to Texas for nationals. The rest of the breastroke quartet should follow Yarzebinski.

      2fly: 1) Simpson 2) Barker 3) Mancuso

      I think that this will be a much better race than some people expect. Nick Barker is really coming on strong this year (hard to believe he was a 1:04 100 butterflyer when he came to GCC). He’s already been 2:00, and he could be right with Simpson when the race is over. Mancuso, Albertson, Robson, and Rady will fight for 3rd. I think Rady will swim this event over the breastroke since Westminster is already stacked there.

      3Meter: Once again, not sure about the diving yet. Give it to Riddell

      4FRel: 1) Grove City 2) Westminster 3) W and J

      Grove City is just too strong in this event, and they should be able to easily handle the Titans. They may even surpass their time from last year, despite losing Haring.

      Let’s see everyone else’s predictions as well-I’m sure mine need some editing.

      Also, the poll is up for team title. Should be another great meet-too close to call right now.

    • #32918
      bizerkel
      Member

      I’m going to say the run for 3rd in the 1 back is up for anybody. Look for a good showing by McNamara this year. He was 55.2 to Werner’s 56.7 this last weekend. Werner has always tapered well, though, so you never know. Hothem as defending champ is still my favorite for second. Nobody catches Pat this year.
      Here’s to hoping he makes it to nats.

    • #32919
      not_a_grover
      Member

      Overall… that’s tough. Westminster seems pretty deep, whereas GCC has some serious stud material – enough to make their free relays dominate. I’m not sure GCC has enough depth to pull it off – yet.

      2FR… GCC Should win this by at least 1.5 seconds, probably more… depending how good their starts get they should be 1.22.3 or less going in to nationals.

      500: Cressman should be impressive tapered. Here’s to hoping for another guy getting some cuts!

      50: Timmy vs. Caleb… Timmy has better acceleration and starts, but just doesn’t have the power and the walls of the Legend. I can’t decide in the 50. I predict it all comes down to the start. Whoever wins will be 20.3 or faster by my guess.

      I hope the rest of the close ones go well. P.Larsen should be interesting to watch tapered. I didn’t know he’s bigger now.

      800FR: I think GCC learned their lesson last year. Caleb is THE anchor. I don’t care if it’s him vs. Trunk and they have a decent lead when Caleb hits the water. GCC will win this one.

      I left out a lot, but it’s gonna be sweet.

    • #32920
      bizerkel
      Member

      After all the discussion of who’s going to win what events, and who’ll make cuts, the meet will ultimately be decided by all of the 5-6-7 place finishes. We saw it pretty acutely last year: WC had multiple swimmers in the top 8 of almost every race, and that’s what it’s going to take to win this meet. Depth is huge in a meet like this. You need that 18th guy to score points.

      Though it’s far less fun to talk about who’s going to get 6th, what’s great is that you never know. For a sport that is so precisely by the clock, prediction is just as unkown as any other.

    • #32921
      The Treat
      Member

      @not_a_grover wrote:

      Overall… that’s tough. Westminster seems pretty deep, whereas GCC has some serious stud material – enough to make their free relays dominate. I’m not sure GCC has enough depth to pull it off – yet.

      2FR… GCC Should win this by at least 1.5 seconds, probably more… depending how good their starts get they should be 1.22.3 or less going in to nationals.

      500: Cressman should be impressive tapered. Here’s to hoping for another guy getting some cuts!

      50: Timmy vs. Caleb… Timmy has better acceleration and starts, but just doesn’t have the power and the walls of the Legend. I can’t decide in the 50. I predict it all comes down to the start. Whoever wins will be 20.3 or faster by my guess.

      I hope the rest of the close ones go well. P.Larsen should be interesting to watch tapered. I didn’t know he’s bigger now.

      800FR: I think GCC learned their lesson last year. Caleb is THE anchor. I don’t care if it’s him vs. Trunk and they have a decent lead when Caleb hits the water. GCC will win this one.

      I left out a lot, but it’s gonna be sweet.

      the legend? isnt it a bit early to be calling him a legend?

    • #32922
      silentp
      Member

      @The Treat wrote:

      the legend? isnt it a bit early to be calling him a legend?

      This just in, new criteria for becoming a legend has been lowered to 1 NCAA title… congrats Treat, you legend you.

    • #32923
      MentalEdge
      Member

      As the only swimming national champion in school history, he’s a legend to Grove City swimmers. It may not be long before he’s a national legend as well.
      You can’t imagine how good it feels to have him as the anchor of a relay; such a competitor.

    • #32924
      not_a_grover
      Member

      @The Treat wrote:

      @not_a_grover wrote:

      Overall… that’s tough. Westminster seems pretty deep, whereas GCC has some serious stud material – enough to make their free relays dominate. I’m not sure GCC has enough depth to pull it off – yet.

      2FR… GCC Should win this by at least 1.5 seconds, probably more… depending how good their starts get they should be 1.22.3 or less going in to nationals.

      500: Cressman should be impressive tapered. Here’s to hoping for another guy getting some cuts!

      50: Timmy vs. Caleb… Timmy has better acceleration and starts, but just doesn’t have the power and the walls of the Legend. I can’t decide in the 50. I predict it all comes down to the start. Whoever wins will be 20.3 or faster by my guess.

      I hope the rest of the close ones go well. P.Larsen should be interesting to watch tapered. I didn’t know he’s bigger now.

      800FR: I think GCC learned their lesson last year. Caleb is THE anchor. I don’t care if it’s him vs. Trunk and they have a decent lead when Caleb hits the water. GCC will win this one.

      I left out a lot, but it’s gonna be sweet.

      the legend? isnt it a bit early to be calling him a legend?

      Yeah sorry, I didn’t really intend to use it. I’ve called him that since the first meet I saw him swim. Certainly in the context of GCC he’s there.

    • #32925

      Let me return to swimmer16’s PAC predictions for the men. Overall it looks very well researched to me – I don’t see much to change, but you never know that there might be some mid season transfers to add to the mix. I also agree with bizerkel that the difference in meet outcome will be from the 4th to 8th place finishers.

      However I’ve been thinking about what going to happen to the men’s conference records his year. There should be more broken this year than the 10 from last year. Here’s what I’m predicting:

      Excellence chance that these will fall –

      1. 50 Free
      2. 100 Free
      3. 500 Free
      4. 1000
      5. 1650
      6. All the relays again. (I’m also predicting that the 200 FR and 200MR from GCC will qualify for nats.)

      Good chance these will fall –

      1. 200 Free
      2. 100 Back
      3. 200 Back
      4. 200 Brst
      5. 400 IM

    • #32926
      The Treat
      Member

      @MentalEdge wrote:

      As the only swimming national champion in school history, he’s a legend to Grove City swimmers. It may not be long before he’s a national legend as well.
      You can’t imagine how good it feels to have him as the anchor of a relay; such a competitor.

      wasnt peggy whitbeck a national champ in the 200 fly?

      im not doubting his status as a great swimmer in GCC history, but i reserve legend status for those athletes lucky enough to be retired.

    • #32927

      @The Treat wrote:

      im not doubting his status as a great swimmer in GCC history, but i reserve legend status for those athletes lucky enough to be retired.

      We may just have to leave him as Superman (unless that’s become a dated reference by now, too). But at least I think we can agree that Mr. Courage has surpassed this early assessment:
      @Long, long ago, swimmerx wrote:

      courage???? who is that?

      In response to weedwacker’s remarks:
      @weedwacker2000 wrote:

      Excellence chance that these will fall –

      1. 50 Free
      2. 100 Free
      3. 500 Free
      4. 1000
      5. 1650
      6. All the relays again. (I’m also predicting that the 200 FR and 200MR from GCC will qualify for nats.)

      I agree with all of the individual events (ironic that the 500 record, after standing untouched for 24 years, will now most likely fall twice in two years). The only relay record I have any hesitation about would be the 200FR. All the others will drop like stones. 1:22.4 is pretty good speed for PACs……but then again, the relay is to all appearances fast than last year. And if they’re going to go under 1:21.7 at nationals, which I fully expect, maybe that record really isn’t too long for this world. Mm.

      As for qualifying relays: I think I agree. If the 200 FR gets anywhere within slingshot distance of the record, it’s a virtual shoo-in. The 200 MR appears to be considerably faster than last year’s — 2 seconds faster comparing Longnecker times. If, for the sake of a conservative estimate, you take 1.5 seconds off their 06 PAC time, you get 1:33.12. That should make it without too much trouble.

      @weedwacker2000 wrote:

      Good chance these will fall –

      1. 200 Free
      2. 100 Back
      3. 200 Back
      4. 200 Brst
      5. 400 IM

      I’ll go along with Courage possibly breaking his own 2free record, and Lehberger being a decent shot to take down the great Kenko Nagai in the 2breast (needs a 1.35 drop from his time last year). As for the rest, I think they’re long-shots. I am highly impressed with Pat Smith (52.4 is very good), and I concur with bizerkel that he will cruise to a sweep in the backstrokes this year. But I just don’t see him beating out Jim Mann. He’s got most of a second to drop from a tapered time in the 100, roughly double that in the 200. I certainly would not put it past him, though, to get a Q-time for Texas in the 100 and/or drop somewhat under 52. In the 4IM, Cressman will win, and I fully expect he’ll get a B-cut…..but in spite of the wiser heads who tell me otherwise, I’m not sure about holding my breath for a sub-4:08 this year.

      And I too agree with the sentiment that the small places in the finals heats will be huge. Westminster has 18 gentlemen who should have no worries about making the big heat in at least two of their events. Grove City has 16-19 in that same category. Last year’s numbers were 16 and 14 respectively. It might just come down to who has the best third swims in consols this year. Something also suspects me that the fly events will turn out to be the key.

      Ah, announcing will be fun. And no, I won’t be intentionally reading any out-of-sorts remarks that happen to find their way onto the finals sheets this year…..though, if requested, I may (emphasis on May) consider working in such things as “stone cold,” or perhaps “luke warm,” to describe certain persons.

    • #32928
      bizerkel
      Member

      Very punny, Smoker.

      I’m going to try my hardest to make the meet. It’s a long way, but proves to be more than worth the trip.

    • #32929

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      the poll is up for team title. Should be another great meet-too close to call right now.

      Too close to call is right. The two teams are almost perfectly balanced, and it could go either way. People who don’t make finals will find their consols swims meaning a lot. I don’t think it’ll come down to the last relay (although something like that would be hard to beat for drama), but I think there will still be some serious doubt about the outcome well into Saturday evening.

      One thing that is clear: WC and GCC will utterly dominate this meet. Between them they should win every single event and blow the other eight teams clean out of the pool. Even W&J could have trouble getting within 400 points of 2nd place. And as was noted last year, the exhibition swimmers could probably place respectably in the team standings if they were competing as their own a separate team.

      Going off swimmer16, here are my per-event thoughts:

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      2FRel: 1) Grove City 2) Westminster 3) W and J

      I agree with the ordering. Westminster gets second after some yards, but very probably with a B-cut. W&J gets third after more than just some yards. 4th could be something of a race between PS-Behrend (this looks like one of their good years) and Misericordia, with neither finishing toooooo far behind the Presidents.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      500: 1) Cressman 2) Mancuso 3) Senior

      Some wild cards here. Cressman should win it going away; I also wouldn’t be surprised at a B-cut out of him. After that, a lot depends on whether Dan Mancuso’s bum shoulder (or whatever it is that’s been ailing him) is back to strength and whether Conor Simpson swims this or defers to the IM. If there’s a yes to both, I would say Mancuso 2nd, Simpson 3rd, then Senior, Gebhardt, Barron, and a couple from among Fairchild, Harbaugh, Seidelson, and Yelacic to round it out. If not, bump everyone else up a place or two and find Mancuso a place toward the outside lanes in finals.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      2IM: 1) Rady 2) Gilbert 3) Simpson

      I too think Rady will win repeat as champion. It’s his senior year and he sees this as his event (or at least he used to). Then again, Gilbert is never to be counted out lightly, so he may pull something unexpected out of his cap. Ed Werner, if he tapers well again, might be able pull off an upset himself. Overall, though, even if you add in Peter Larsen, this should be a very blue heat — 80 points for Westminster wouldn’t surprise me — and all the more so if Conor Simpson swims this instead of the 500.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      50: 1) Whitbeck 2) Courage 3) Trunk

      Although I think either of them can win it, just to be contrary, I’ll call Courage ahead of Whitbeck. ๐Ÿ˜€ Trunk comes in for 3rd, but I think he too gets the A-cut (his first in the 50, I believe?). Beyond those three, we’ll have some more red (Snyder, Young) and blue (Burns, Gerthoffer), and any one of several candidates from other teams (Nigrelli, Spoto, Hall) to finish out the heat.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      1Meter: Not sure about the diving right now, but I’ll go with Riddell from GCC.

      Joe Riddell is a good pick to win this, but Kyle Grubbs and Luke Morgan should be close behind. It wouldn’t shock me to see some lead changes along the way. As for the rest, Gary Miglaccio will make Bethany’s cameo appearance in the top 8 for Thursday, and Ryan Sayers and A.J. Kondash should fill out the rest of this nearly (but not quite) complete heat of divers.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      4MRel: 1) Westminster 2) GCC

      I don’t know what to make of this one. Pat Smith should indeed take the backstroke by some distance, breast and fly ought to be even (again), and that leaves Courage vs. Trunk on the end with Trunk having perhaps a second’s worth of a head start. We may very well get the nail-biter that failed to materialize last year. It should be very tight, and I most certainly would not count Westminster out of reclaiming this relay for themselves. @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      3) W and J

      3rd has been a pretty ho-hum affair for all the relays ever since Westminster came into the conference (although Misericordia did snag the 2MRel as recently as 2005) — but there appears to be a distinct possibility of Behrend actually defeating the Presidents in this event this year. Their times at mid-season are a good two and a half seconds ahead (3:43.7 against 3:46.1). Again, a lot depends on Mancuso, and on the success of W&J’s February taper.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      2MRel: 1) GCC 2) Westminster 3) W and J

      Grove City’s sprints are indeed much too strong in this race. They should destroy the B-cut, and a shot at a nationals invite could well be in range. The really interesting question about Westminster is whether they get under the B-cut or not. They weren’t too far off of it last year, and their only loss was Horrell, who should be replaceable. W&J could fall as far as fifth here. Once again, Behrend currently owns an (albeit fractional) advantage over them, and St. Vincent actually appears to occupy 3rd at the moment. Still, the differences being as tiny as they are, I expect the Presidents will find a way to finish in the top three, just as they usually do.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      1000: 1) Gebhardt 2) Senior 3) Barron

      I like that ordering, as I also expect Cressman will switch over to the IM on Friday. Depending on who’s most on, 4th could be any one of Jeremy Harbaugh, Steve Seidelson, or Pete Yelacic. If my guesses about exhbition are right, Josh Shrum should be good for a showing in the top 8 as well.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      4IM: 1) Cressman 2) Mancuso 3) Smith

      Cressman should take 1st. I’d like to dispute 2nd, though. Unless he’s having an off weekend or saves way too much for his back, Pat Smith should 4-peat, no matter how good Mancuso’s shoulder is feeling. After Mancuso, in some order should be Yarger, Rady, and Albertson. The two likely suspects I see as finishing out the heat would be Chip Hothem and Nathan Taylor. This will be a Big 3 heat.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      1fly: 1) Simpson 2) Larsen 3) Zinz

      Tough call between Larsen and Simpson, but you have to go with the defending champ. I don’t think Zinz will do better than 3rd, although you never know, but I also don’t think sub-52 is necessarily out of his range. I think Nick Barker beats all comers for 4th — or even a place in the top 3 — and I have a suspicion that sub-52 isn’t out of his reach either. Some sortation of Rady (if he’s not in the 4IM), Robson, and Butmankiewicz should follow. Clouse (SVC) and/or Reese (Behrend) should add a bit more diversity to the heat.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      2free: 1) Courage 2) Trunk 3) Snyder

      I’m having trouble expecting a close race between Courage and Trunk, but it probably will be closer than I think. For 3rd, Snyder will be seriously challenged by Tom Benoit. Benoit has a history of getting 3rd in this event and has already been 1:46 this year, so it may end up being a battle of who wants it more. In spite of his astonishing “1:45” a while back, I do not expect that Chris Hickey (Altoona) will be anywhere near those two. In fact, I think it’s a stretch to propose him for a finalist at all. The bottom half of the heat should be somewhat diverse: Gerthoffer, Nigrelli, Fairchild, and someone else (but probably not Hickey).

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      1breast: 1) Gilbert 2) Lehberger 3) Keagle

      I agree. I think Andrew Gilbert holds off the breaststroke quartet in a finish not unlike the finish of the 100 back in 2005. And very hopefully he gets that B-cut and school record. But I would also pencil in 2-3-4-5 for the Titans. Tim Whitbeck and Linc Larsen should show here as well. The remaining spot could conceivably go to any one of a number of people — A. Whittam (W&J), T. May (GCC), J. Linck (SVC), J. Kunselman (PSB), W. Gagliardi (CM). Sub-1:03 to make top 8, anyone?

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      1back: 1) Smith 2) Hothem 3) Werner

      This event won’t be quite the madhouse it’s been the last couple of years. We’ll have 3 guys (Hothem, Werner, McNamara) gunning for 2nd (or two going for 3rd) instead of 5 or 6 guys in the hunt for 1st. If Smith can drop a half-second or a bit more, he should be good for a trip to Houston. I will agree with the predictions of Hothem for 2nd. After McNamara and Werner, there will likely be a sizeable gap before 5th. For the rest of the heat, it could be any combination of Brian Schultz, Jason Hall, Tom Weir, Chad Toth (presuming he has the, ah, intestinal fortitude for it), and/or Andrew Whittam (if he opts for it).

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      800 Relay: 1) GCC 2) Westminster 3) W and J

      I agree with the ordering. I predict a Grove City win in 6:56 and change. I don’t think it’ll be a touch-out again, though. Westminster should get under the B-cut, but I think they’ll finish a second or two behind.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      1650: 1) Cressman 2) Gebhardt 3) Senior

      Again no objections to the ordering. More of the usual suspects should follow: Barron, Seidelson, and Harbaugh. Yelacic should also finish top-8 if he swims it, and Dan Brett may make an appearance for the end spot.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      2back: 1) Smith 2) Hothem 3) Werner

      Pat Smith wins #4, definitely. A B-cut might be a bit of a stretch here, though. Hothem and Werner should be good for 2nd and 3rd. And call me crazy, but could we see Ian Yarger here instead of the 2fly? After that it gets, really murky. Jason Hall should show; and as the feel-good pick, I’ll say Pitt-Bradford gets a top-8 out of Cameron Lanich.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      1free: 1) Courage 2) Trunk 3) Whitbeck

      44-low is a good call. I think Whitbeck will outdo himself in this event, but Trunk will still wrap up 2nd comfortably. And the heat as a whole should be straight red-and-blue, with Gerthoffer, Burns, and Benoit for Westminster and Snyder and P. Larsen for Grove City. If there’s a spoiler, look for it to be Zach Nigrelli or Anthony Spoto.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      2breast: 1) Lehberger 2) Gilbert 3) Yarzebinski

      I’m going with history here, too, and a Lehberger win. Another B-cut for him, he maybe breaks the conference record, maybe gets a nationals invite. I’d like to see Gilbert with a B-cut in 2nd. I don’t think the rest of the breaststroke quartet will keep with those two, but they should come in for a 3-4-5 finish. Fairchild and L. Larsen should also show up here, and then Whittam or May for that last spot.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      2fly: 1) Simpson 2) Barker 3) Mancuso

      I give Simpson the repeat as well. While I agree Barker should have no problem getting to the top 3, I don’t know what to make of him vs. Mancuso. Beyond that, I too think that Rady will switch over from the breast, Robson, Albertson, and Yarger (if he swims it) will show up, too. Joe Reese could prove to be a sleeper here, but unless Butmankiewicz blows it, he’ll be looking at the top of consols instead.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      3Meter: Once again, not sure about the diving yet. Give it to Riddell

      Riddell will most likely repeat his double win, but 2nd could be an interesting fight between Morgan and Grubbs. Sayers, Miglaccio, and Kondash will come along behind again.

      @gccswimmer16 wrote:

      4FRel: 1) Grove City 2) Westminster 3) W and J

      I think GCC can get a 3:04-mid out of this one. For the Titans, the question is again whether or not they’ll get the B-cut. The fact that they didn’t last year, while understandable, was unfortunate. They should be more than capable of it this year, but if they’re ahead by between 7 and 40 points going into this event, they’ll probably hold back again to ensure the win.

    • #32930

      That’s another good analysis, outside smoker. However it appears to me that you have Courage swimming all five relays for GCC to do as well as you would like them to do. My prediction is that Caleb sits out the 400MR and concentrates with swimming the 50 Back leading off the 200MR. If indeed he does not swim in the 400, then Westminster should take this relay.

      Having mentioned Caleb let me go even further and make a prediction as to his relay splits, assuming of course he does these relays, and has relay starts and not flat starts:
      200FR – 19.6
      200MR – 24.2 for the back (maybe even a 24.0)
      800FR – 1:39.0
      400FR – 43.6

    • #32931
      bizerkel
      Member

      You know, the man of the stellar 0.8 relay start might even be quicker leading off…

    • #32932
      swim5599
      Member

      Courage is not eh first swimmer to win a nat champion at Grove City. I am also prety sure Peggy Whitbeck won the 200 fly, wasn’t she at one point the nat record holder also? I can’t remember

    • #32933

      @swim5599 wrote:

      Courage is not eh first swimmer to win a nat champion at Grove City. I am also prety sure Peggy Whitbeck won the 200 fly, wasn’t she at one point the nat record holder also? I can’t remember

      Since this point has come up a couple of times, Courage is the first men’s national champion swimmer in GCC history. This is not to be confused with:

      1) the three national champion divers from the early 80s (in the days before Grove City had a women’s team)
      or
      2) the school’s very first national champion swimmer, Peggy Whitbeck, who won the 200 fly at NCAAs 3 times (02-04) and set the national record (twice) at the PAC meet in 2003.

      @weedwacker2000 wrote:

      However it appears to me that you have Courage swimming all five relays for GCC to do as well as you would like them to do. My prediction is that Caleb sits out the 400MR and concentrates with swimming the 50 Back leading off the 200MR. If indeed he does not swim in the 400, then Westminster should take this relay.

      Yeah, you’re probably right about my overextending Courage on relays. But I don’t think the 400MR is the one he’ll sit. A couple of reasons: 1) that relay is at the end of the first night, and they’re going to want to go into Friday on a high note; 2) more importantly, the chance for qualifying the 400 MR for nationals are probably sleeper-quality even under ideal conditions, but if Courage doesn’t swim it, you can amend that to “no chance at all.” They’re going to want to give it their best shot if they’ve got any chance at all.

      I could see him sitting the 800FR as an alternative. The chances that they would qualify that relay — that they could qualify it — are so remote, I have trouble even saying it. They also can’t win this relay without him, unfortunately (even sub-7:00 might be a bit of a stretch), but Fritz values the national-caliber swims most, and every other relay has at least some potential to perhaps make it to Houston. So we may have to forgo a repeat of last year’s Fantastic Fight to the Finish. If that ends up being the case, I’m already disappointed. But I still think it makes strategic sense.

      @bizerkel wrote:

      the man of the stellar 0.8 relay start might even be quicker leading off…

      Didn’t he improve his relay starts just a smidgen last year? I could be wrong…………….

    • #32934

      Here’s my thinking on Courage and the relays from GCC –

      Even with Caleb swimming both the 400MR and the 800, neither would qualify for Nationals. For the 400MR, if you have him doing the back and Tim doing the free legs, you come up short because neither are their strongest events. If you have Caleb swimming the free, then there is no good backstroker left to do the back leg. And for the 800, Caleb needs stronger support to qualify, as mentioned previously.

      So then the objective turns to winning the PAC meet. I feel that the 800 gives Grove City the better chance of victory. Westminster is just too strong in the 400MR with Smith, Lehberger, Simpson and Trunk. Courage would most likely lose out to Smith, and Trunk is stronger in the 100 free than Whitbeck. The other strokes are more or less even. Then if Courage sits out the 800, Westminster should easily take that one as well.

      Strategy wise, I say GCC goes for the 800 with Courage as the final leg.

    • #32935
      Crimson Tide
      Member

      My picks for winners at what should be a meet with some
      ~ of the best competition
      ~ outstanding perfomances and
      ~ the best races in the conference.

      Swim well everyone!!! 8)

      200 Freestyle Relay Grove City
      500 Freestyleyle Cressman – GC
      200 Individual Medley – Courage – GC
      50 Freestyle – Whitbeck – GC
      1-meter Diving – Riddell – GC
      400 Medley Relay – Grove City

      200 Medley Relay – Grove City
      400 Individual Medley- Mancuso – W&J
      1000 Freestyle – Cressman – GC
      100 Butterfly – Larson – GC
      200 Freestyle – Courage – GC
      100 Breaststroke – Lehberger – Westminster
      100 Backstroke – Smith – Westminster
      800 Freestyle Relay – Grove City

      1650 Freestyle – Cressman – GC
      200 Backstroke – Smith – Westminster
      100 Freestyle – Courage – GC
      200 Breaststroke – Lehberger – Westminster
      200 Butterfly – Simpson – Westminster
      3-meter Diving – Riddell – GC
      400 Freestyle Relay – Grove City

    • #32936

      @Crimson Tide wrote:

      My picks for winners at what should be a meet with some
      ~ of the best competition
      ~ outstanding perfomances and
      ~ the best races in the conference.

      Swim well everyone!!! 8)

      200 Freestyle Relay Grove City
      500 Freestyleyle Cressman – GC
      200 Individual Medley – Courage – GC
      50 Freestyle – Whitbeck – GC
      1-meter Diving – Riddell – GC
      400 Medley Relay – Grove City

      200 Medley Relay – Grove City
      400 Individual Medley- Mancuso – W&J
      1000 Freestyle – Cressman – GC
      100 Butterfly – Larson – GC
      200 Freestyle – Courage – GC
      100 Breaststroke – Lehberger – Westminster
      100 Backstroke – Smith – Westminster
      800 Freestyle Relay – Grove City

      1650 Freestyle – Cressman – GC
      200 Backstroke – Smith – Westminster
      100 Freestyle – Courage – GC
      200 Breaststroke – Lehberger – Westminster
      200 Butterfly – Simpson – Westminster
      3-meter Diving – Riddell – GC
      400 Freestyle Relay – Grove City

      So Grove City wins 15 events. Not out of the question. Other than Cressman winning the 1000 (I’d look for him in the 4IM instead, with Gebhardt probably taking the 1000), those are all plausible guesses.

      The really crazy thing is, even if they do win that many events, Westminster could still win the meet (e.g. look at how many events the W&J women won last year in the process of losing the meet). I think, based mostly on what’s likely going in and how momentum might shift and turn during the meet, Westminster only needs to win 6 events to be able to win the meet. For Grove City, I think that number is 12. And I think both teams will probably win at least those many events.

    • #32937
      Crimson Tide
      Member

      @OutsideSmoker27 wrote:

      So Grove City wins 15 events. Not out of the question. Other than Cressman winning the 1000 (I’d look for him in the 4IM instead, with Gebhardt probably taking the 1000), those are all plausible guesses.

      So you think GC should give up the good-chance-of-a-win in the 1000 to Westminster and have Cressman possibly get beat by Westminster (Smith/Rady) and/or W&J (Mancuso not had a good IM this year but he’s capable of getting back to his 4:14 of last year’s PACS). Cressman anywhere from 1-4 in IM, 1-2 in 1000. Hmmmm.

      @OutsideSmoker27 wrote:

      The really crazy thing is, even if they do win that many events, Westminster could still win the meet (e.g. look at how many events the W&J women won last year in the process of losing the meet). I think, based mostly on what’s likely going in and how momentum might shift and turn during the meet, Westminster only needs to win 6 events to be able to win the meet. For Grove City, I think that number is 12. And I think both teams will probably win at least those many events.

      I agree that Westminster could still win (and they will be out to avenge the dual meet loss to GC). They have enough good swimmers to put several swimmers in the top 8 in most events. Grove City can do that in the free events, but not too many in the stroke events. Should be a very interesting – and exciting – meet. ๐Ÿ˜†

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