Over/Under

Forums General National Championships Over/Under

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    • #11922
      silentp
      Member

      Much like PTI, and i’m Stat Boy (i know they don’t call him this anymore, but they should), this is just for the men’s side:

      1.5 individual wins for freshmen…

      1.5 wins by Non-Kenyon relays (not from false start)…

      6:51.00 for the 800 FR invite time…

      .5 NCAA Records at the big meet in March…

      2.5 threads predicting NCAA Champions…

    • #29930
      N Dynamite
      Member

      I’m assuming we’re talking guys only. If not then the first one is a definite over – between men and women there will be multiple freshmen victories.

      Over – One of those guys is going to win 100 and 200 of their stroke.

      Over – For no other reason than last year’s 800. If that wasn’t a sign of the apocalypse I don’t know what is.

      Under – This was my hardest call to make. The cut time last year was ridiculous compared to previous years. One would think it can’t be consistently that fast, but I think this year it might be faster. One of the academy’s got left out with a 6:51 last year – there’s my rationale

      Over – Either Dunn or Courage

      Way Over – I was thinking more like 5-6 by the time we reach March.

    • #29931
      Chris Knight
      Member

      I will agree with all of those but add the 2 Back and 2 Free to the list of potential records.

      The relay question is a little tricky. Last year, even though they were certainly picked by many to sweep all 5, you just knew that one would be marked…whichever one didn’t have Duda. Despite losing him, this year Kenyon’s weakest relay will be harder to determine. For the sake of excitement I’ll say over, though.

    • #29932
      silentp
      Member

      Under – Freshmen are cool, but only 1 will win.

      Over – Agreed that the 800 FR was shocking how bad they did, but none of the relays will have Duda, or a backstroker… they are in trouble, they lose 3!

      Under – It might be under 6:50 since 90% of the relays are intact from the previous year and others are likely creeping up.

      Under – No records, 100 will be 44-mid, Dunn will be slower, 2back won’t even be close, and the 200 will also be a second or 2 away

      Over – Like ND said, this one is over by a lot

    • #29933
      facenorth
      Member

      Over. 1.5 individual wins for freshmen…My guess is number was set based on two people, Paul Ellis and Alfonso Espinosa. That may be a good o/u for those two but with a handful of winning seniors graduating and so much uncertainty of who is coming in, I saw Over.

      Over. 1.5 wins by Non-Kenyon relays (not from false start)…The 800 Free is one, on paper that’s easy enough. I still say they win the medley’s. They’ve got the last three legs faster than anyone else in the country, they’ll find a way to make the backstroke work.

      Over. 6:51.00 for the 800 FR invite time…maybe that’s just me hoping (no pun intended).

      Under. .5 NCAA Records at the big meet in March…records are fun to see but I’m not sure which one would be on it’s way out this year.

      Over. 2.5 threads predicting NCAA Champions…I mean indirectly, it’s already started.[/b]

    • #29934
      silentp
      Member

      @facenorth wrote:

      so much uncertainty of who is coming in, .[/b]

      Not to get us off topic, but i think uncertaintly either means people didn’t get anyone and therefore there isn’t much to talk about or, more likely, they got a lot of studs and therefore are keeping their mouths shut to hold the secret a bit longer.

    • #29935
      swim5599
      Member

      Under, I don’t think there will be one freshmen to win an event this year. The only guys with a shot this year are Ellis and Soriano. And I think Soriano gets beat by either Zarins or Westby in the 100 breast

      I think Kenyon will probably win a few relays, but they are not going to win the 800 fr or the 400 Fr

      6:51 is probably a safe time, I do not think it will get a whole lot faster than that.

      The only record that has potential to go down is the mile, no way Courage breaks Born’s record, and no way the 200 back goes down.

    • #29936
      DonCheadle
      Member

      I am trying to figure out who has a shot at winning the mile???

      Anyhow, we don’t know the freshmen yet, so I think there will be 2 events won by freshmen but I have know idea who it will be.

    • #29937

      For that 800, I bet it takes a 6:49 to get invited this year. It seems like it only keeps getting faster, and teams at the top of that race in finals last year didn’t graduate that much (except Wash U.) who has a senior that has been 143 and a freshman that has been 142, so that puts them back under 650 right away.

    • #29938
      DonCheadle
      Member

      Wash U under 6:50? I don’t see it.

    • #29939
      swim5599
      Member

      well lets see if we take Leckey’s 1:41.1 along with Vimr 1:42.4 or so and then add it the 1:43.0 and 1:42.1 we are looking at That puts them at 6:48.6 correct, I have to say that is probably doable.

    • #29940
      silentp
      Member

      @swim5599 wrote:

      well lets see if we take Leckey’s 1:41.1 along with Vimr 1:42.4 or so and then add it the 1:43.0 and 1:42.1 we are looking at That puts them at 6:48.6 correct, I have to say that is probably doable.

      Not to mention the great job Shively does preparing his swimmers and getting the best possible times out of them.

    • #29941
      swim5599
      Member

      Absolutely he might be the most underrated coach at the d3 level. To have guys like Slavik and Triebe just continue to drop time every year says something about his coaching ability. Like I have said before it would have been great fun to watch some Lactate set done at Wash U with those two guys.

    • #29942

      I hope you are right about the returners at WashU. One thing I have seen in years past is the difficulty for the returners to get up and go when their stud graduates, or in this case, their studs. It’s easy to shine when you know you’ve got two horses like Triebe and Slavik coming home. I just hope they can do it on their own. The training will be different, not chasing anyone in practice will be different, the leadership will be different. The Coach however, will not be.

    • #29943
      neswim
      Member

      @silentp wrote:

      Much like PTI, and i’m Stat Boy (i know they don’t call him this anymore, but they should), this is just for the men’s side:

      1.5 individual wins for freshmen…

      1.5 wins by Non-Kenyon relays (not from false start)…

      6:51.00 for the 800 FR invite time…

      .5 NCAA Records at the big meet in March…

      2.5 threads predicting NCAA Champions…

      Here is my version for the women’s meet

      1) Over….there at least two freshman coming in that are capable of individual championships.

      2)Under….good chance of Kenyon sweep.

      3) Pass for obvious reasons

      4) Over….100 fly, 100 back, 400 IM, 200 fly, 200 back, 200 free all seem possible. Exceptionally fast meet this year.

      4) Over, proving once again this isn’t a Div III Men’s Swimming and Diving.

    • #29944
      silentp
      Member

      The women’s races really have been seeing time drops as of late, i think we could see in the neighborhood of 7 records fall… 7! That’s exciting stuff.

      If Kenyon has a shot of sweeping the relays (which they do), could they bring back the title? I’d say yes, but i don’t have a lot to base that on.

    • #29945
      neswim
      Member

      @silentp wrote:

      The women’s races really have been seeing time drops as of late, i think we could see in the neighborhood of 7 records fall… 7! That’s exciting stuff.

      If Kenyon has a shot of sweeping the relays (which they do), could they bring back the title? I’d say yes, but i don’t have a lot to base that on.

      Well we do know that Kenyon lost less points to graduation than Emory. So until we evaluate each school’s freshman class they are they likely favorites to win.

    • #29946
      Nescacfan
      Member

      If Kenyon has a shot of sweeping the relays (which they do), could they bring back the title?

      Much more likely that the Kenyon women take home the title than sweeping the relays. If Calvin picked up a fast freestyler, they could offer competition in the 400 Free. The Amherst women lost no swimmer on last year’s winning 800 free relay and they are a formidable medley threat–especially in the 400. They were second to Williams last year and lost no one on that relay.

    • #29947

      I don’t have a ton of insight into Emory’s freshman women’s class, but I do know that they picked up a 215LCM 2flyer, a couple of divers and a 5flatish 500 swimmer. The women’s meet is going to be a barn burner.

    • #29948

      @CommodoreLongfellow wrote:

      The training will be different, not chasing anyone in practice will be different, the leadership will be different. The Coach however, will not be.

      Yes, the leadership will be different. Different is not always bad, especially in this situation. Last year, we had to rely on Triebe and Slavik for the big points, big swims, etc. That was the approach, and as a result, and what most people don’t know, is that the rest of the team (generally speaking, there were exceptions) had a shitty conference meet. This year, with more of a team focus, I think it helps get more of the best out of everyone, which is what has to happen this year for us to get relays back to nationals, and get a Kevin Leckey or Ross Vimr to score individually at nationals.

      Secondly, your senior 143 you are talking about was at NCAA’s on relays his freshman and sophomore year. If you look back at results, he wasn’t on there last year due to one stud freshman Kevin Leckey. If that doesn’t motivate your senior leadership to get back to the dance his last year, I don’t know what does.

    • #29949
      swim5599
      Member

      The womens meet will be unbelievable this year. I thought last years might have been the fastest ever, this year should be even more impressive. Emory picked up a 2:15 LCm 200 flyer? That was a girl right? That is really fast.

      I look for Leckey to have a huge year. Might he consider swimming the 200 free instead of the 400 Im this year?

    • #29950
      The Treat
      Member

      @swim5599 wrote:

      The womens meet will be unbelievable this year. I thought last years might have been the fastest ever, this year should be even more impressive. Emory picked up a 2:15 LCm 200 flyer? That was a girl right? That is really fast.

      I look for Leckey to have a huge year. Might he consider swimming the 200 free instead of the 400 Im this year?

      ill would try and convince him to, but brad loves the 400 im. i think its a fine and dandy event, but it a) takes a lot out of you (especially when you swim it twice) and b) is a pretty deep event.

    • #29951
      JHU84
      Member

      @The Treat wrote:

      @swim5599 wrote:

      ill would try and convince him to, but brad loves the 400 im. i think its a fine and dandy event, but it a) takes a lot out of you (especially when you swim it twice) and b) is a pretty deep event.

      Swimming the 200 free twice or more with relay is no simple task either. At least if you swim it well

    • #29952
      swim5599
      Member

      I was just thinking that he went 4:08 last year in the Im, but he split 1:41.1 in the 200. I was thinking about it in terms of qualifying for the meet. 4:08 would not qualify but if he went 1:41 plus he certainly would qualify in the 200

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