Over/Under

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    • #11929
      silentp
      Member

      Like PTI and like the Nationals Thread, I thought I’d do it for the MIAA, soemthing we all know and love. So, take the over or the under on the following topics:

      – 14.5 swimmers from the MIAA swimming in Houston this March

      – 4.5 MIAA Overal Records by season’s end

      – .5 MIAA Relay Record

      – .5 Freshman “Studs” (Toll, Fonzi, Heyboer, Ellis) Missing NCAAs

      – .5 3 Event Winners at MIAAs

    • #30029
      Alterego
      Member

      Over 14.5 swimmers from MIAA at Nationals. Interesting you said swimmers though. Relays will certainly help drive this number up.

      Under 4.5 MIAA Open records. There are some pretty quick records out there. I do see a few falling though.

      Under .5 Relay MIAA Open record coming down. With no Blohm, it will be awful difficult to take down the 800 Free (still possible though). And the medley’s, while I believe will be challenged (especially the 200 Medley) but will remain in tact. No one will go 1:22.4 or 3:02 either.

      Over .5 3 event winners. The possibility is there for a couple people to win 3 events. While Ellis (50 Free, 100 Fly, 100 Back…totally guessing), Fonz (50 Free, 100 and 200 Breast…again guessing) and Heyboer (200 and 400 IMs, 200 Back…guessing) are the strongest possibilities, it is important to keep in mind there are some darkhorses with legitimate shots at this as well. Chas VanderBroek should be mentioned, while all of his events from last year are up in the air and more of a crapshoot than anything, he has a shot to win all three. Paul Krone is also another guy to keep your eye out for, double winner from last year. If he repeats and shows some more speed in the 200, there is another. I take the over.

    • #30030
      DonCheadle
      Member

      At this point Heyboer, Ellis, and CVB are favored to finish top 2 in whatever events they swim. That makes them the most likely to win 3 events. Krone (200) and Fonzi (50) each have an event where, while they have a shot to win, right now are underdogs.

      My guess is Ellis and CVB will go 1-2 in the 100 free and whoever wins will win 3 events. CVB is going to be better this year.

    • #30031
      silentp
      Member

      Under – It’s fun to talk about in August and September, but it’s a different thing in February: Albion sends 1, Olivet sends 1, K sends 5 – 6 and Hope sends 6 – 7… one of those won’t work out.

      Under – The 100 back will go down, but that’s all i’d bet on at this point, although the 2IM, 500, 200 back, and 1650 could all go down as well.

      Under – Only shot is the 200 MR, but the Back split will be faster, and the breast and fly COULD be similar, but the free won’t be as fast and that’s not something to bet on.

      Under – I hate to be the pessemist but i think as many as 2 of these guys won’t be swimming in March. If Nick Duda (1:52 in the IM in high school) can go without making it, so can one of those guys. And like Duda, it wouldn’t necessarily mean they won’t end up being great.

      Over – Ellis or Heyboer, 200 back. While Ellis is off winning the 1fly and 1back, Heyboer will win the 4IM. His quest in the 2IM will not be easy however, since you have to add a second to his time for the flip (puts him right with Dekker and Waterstone) and his 500 would be tough against Krone. Then they’d face off with an edge to Heyboer… big edge at this point. Ellis could go to the 100 free though and win that (maybe, but note easy), so i’ll pick him to win 3 100s… and Heyboer could do it too.

    • #30032

      OVER 14.5 swimmers from MIAA at Nationals – If as many are predicting the national meet becomes somewhat slower this year, the MIAA is vastly improved and can put 15 swimmers in the meet. Hope brings 7 or 8 swimmers, Kzoo brings 5 or 6 swimmers, Meisner, and Krone. Potentially, Yuri. That’s a minimum of 14 and there is plenty we don’t know about yet.

      UNDER 4.5 MIAA Open records – There is plenty of potential in the league this year, yet I just don’t see things coming together for more than 2 or 3 open records. There are plenty of stud freshmen but no one that is a sure thing to break a record.

      UNDER .5 Relay MIAA Open Records – Not likely to happen this year. It will be tough to get all 4 guys swimming at the level needed to knock any of these off this year.

      OVER .5 Freshman “Studs” (Toll, Fonzi, Heyboer, Ellis) Missing NCAAs – Easy, Toll! His best event is the 200 Fly and I just don’t think that will be his strength at Calvin. And, I don’t like Calvin.

      OVER .5 3 Event Winners at MIAAs – There are enough candidates (Heyboer, Ellis, Espinosa, CVB and Krone) that I believe one of them will pull it off.

    • #30033
      Insight
      Member

      OVER…Hope, 8, Kzoo, 4-5, C-A-O, all 1…I don’t know where silentp came up with 6…hell, i don’t know where i came up with 5…am I missing something?

      UNDER…i agree with Billy, they are studs and maybe 4 but not 5.

      UNDER…this will be tough as well and I gotta believe that Hope’s 4 free is the best chance, the league record is “only” 3:04.17. Sorry, I know Kzoo think the fonz and ell are the second coming but they are looking at an A cut to break the 2MR rec.

      UNDER…those guys will all make it.

      OVER…Can somebody look into the last time there was not a three event winner? if we go backwards….06- Blohm 05-Blohm 04-Whitbeck 03-Boomhower 02-Boomhower…..I have streched my memory as far as it could go….I am taking this one on the over because of history, not because I think a certain person can do it over another.

    • #30034
      silentp
      Member

      @Insight wrote:

      OVER…Hope, 8, Kzoo, 4-5, C-A-O, all 1…I don’t know where silentp came up with 6…hell, i don’t know where i came up with 5…am I missing something?

      UNDER…this will be tough as well and I gotta believe that Hope’s 4 free is the best chance, the league record is “only” 3:04.17. Sorry, I know Kzoo think the fonz and ell are the second coming but they are looking at an A cut to break the 2MR rec.

      OVER…Can somebody look into the last time there was not a three event winner? if we go backwards….06- Blohm 05-Blohm 04-Whitbeck 03-Boomhower 02-Boomhower…..I have streched my memory as far as it could go….I am taking this one on the over because of history, not because I think a certain person can do it over another.

      Yes, you are missing someting: Ellis, Fonzi, Dekker, Hennigar, Ben, Greiner… they’ll switch the medleys to get more people to NCAAs.

      We think Ellis and the Fonz are the 2nd coming because they are the quite possibly the fastest incoming freshmen in their best events in Division III history… remember that if high school still did the stand up start, Ellis may have been a 49.

      Also, in 05 PBG was a triple winner and in 04, Kurtz won 3 also. I am not sure who Boomhower is, but there were no triple winners in 03 OR 02…. so maybe history isn’t on your side.

    • #30035
      DonCheadle
      Member

      In 2002 E Whitbeck, PBG, and Tim DeHann went 1,1,2 but there were no 3 event winners

      In 2003 PBG went 1,1,2 Kobes went 1,1,5 Kurtz went 1,1,6 Slagh went 1,2,2 and White went 1,2,3 – again no 3 event winners

    • #30036

      @silentp wrote:

      I am not sure who Boomhower is

      pretty sure Boomhower = PBG

      either way, no one won 3 events in ’02 and ’03. however, if one of the new studs is swimming well at leagues they will win 3.

      @insight wrote:

      C-A-O, all 1

      I agree with Krone and Meisner, Olivet may even get Yuri in with a full season of training and hopefully a strong race with Heyboer in the 400 IM. However, I don’t think Calvin gets one… Toll is a solid swimmer and likely a B cut guy but I don’t think he makes the meet. He’s about a second off of what it will take in both the 200 free and 200 fly. I don’t think he’ll drop time this year.

    • #30037
      silentp
      Member

      @DonCheadle wrote:

      In 2002 E Whitbeck, PBG, and Tim DeHann went 1,1,2 but there were no 3 event winners

      In 2003 PBG went 1,1,2 Kobes went 1,1,5 Kurtz went 1,1,6 Slagh went 1,2,2 and White went 1,2,3 – again no 3 event winners

      01 did not have any 3 event winners either, but Duda won 3 in 00!

    • #30038
      DonCheadle
      Member

      I’ll go back a little further:

      1995 Knapp won the 200 IM, 400 IM and 200 fly

      1996 – 1999 Latham won 3 events every time

      Additionaly In 1997 Robbins won both flies and the 100 back (by .01) and Vanderheide won the 50, 100, and 200 free

      In 2000 Duda and JD won 3

      In 2001 none (a 1,1,2 by Duda and a 1,2,2 by JD)

    • #30039
      Insight
      Member

      So if I am reading this right, and I’d like to think I am, From 1995 to 2006 there were only 3 years that there was NOT a three event winner….also, in those three years, 1 year one guy won two events and the other two, three guys one 2 events.

      I think history is on my side.
      [/quote]

    • #30040
      Insight
      Member

      Also, let’s first look at this statement….

      @silentp wrote:

      I am with your coach, i hate coulda shoulda woulda crap.

      and then look at this statement:

      @silentp wrote:

      remember that if high school still did the stand up start, Ellis may have been a 49.

      Hmmm….I am not sure what to think here.

    • #30041
      silentp
      Member

      @Insight wrote:

      Also, let’s first look at this statement….

      @silentp wrote:

      I am with your coach, i hate coulda shoulda woulda crap.

      and then look at this statement:

      @silentp wrote:

      remember that if high school still did the stand up start, Ellis may have been a 49.

      Hmmm….I am not sure what to think here.

      Yeah, could have, but who knows, he never got the chance. It’s kind of the same, so I can see your point, however i would argue it is slightly different than “if he hadn’t lifted his head”.

      Yes, only 3 times, and those times were when the league was at its strongest, so if, as some say it is back to that, then maybe that will cause people to not win. Then again, maybe there will be 3-4 triple event winners, you never know.

    • #30042
      DonCheadle
      Member

      I missed my turn in the finals of the 200 medly in 1998 otherwise I could have been a 20.8

      is not the same as

      Phelps would go a 1:30 in the 200 if he swam collegiately

      One is just an excuse, while the other is more conjecture.

      But that is just MY opinion!

      In the last 11 league meets, there have been 11 triple winners. THe years it did not happen could attributed to the fact that some swimmers did not taper for leagues.

      In ’01 Whitbeck beat Duda in the 400 IM due to a lack of taper by Duda. Duda beat Whitbeck’s MIAA time at Nats by a half second.

      In ’02 Duda would (there is that word again) have won 3 events but didn’t rest at all. So he finished 2,6,3

    • #30043
      Derek
      Member

      @DonCheadle wrote:

      In ’02 Duda would (there is that word again) have won 3 events but didn’t rest at all. So he finished 2,6,3

      Keep in mind that Duda had an insane fever when he swam that 6 in the 400im. That was the year that we had 6 in finals. I don’t recall what he went and I’m too lazy to check, but Duda was really really sick for that swim. Doesn’t mean that he would have been close to EWhitbeck (who was tapered), but I’ve always held Nick in high regard, and that is just another reason.

    • #30044
      silentp
      Member

      Cheadle and I are on the same page, it’s different when someone never gets the chance than when someone just doesn’t do it despite numerous opportunities.

      The only reason Duda even swam in the race was that K had 6 in finals, otherwise he would have scratched. It’s not like we needed the points to win the meet.

      History, in athletics, is not always a good indication of the future, especially in college because the people competing are not the same. If you put any of this year’s athletes into those 3 years where no one won 3 events, none of them would win 3 either. At the same time, last year, it’s possible none of them could have won 3 either (Heyboer and Ellis would have each won 2). This year isn’t those years though.

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