Nelis Watch

  • This topic is empty.
Viewing 10 reply threads
  • Author
    Posts
    • #12313
      silentp
      Member

      It’s bubble time! Who is more on the bubble than this young man? Not many.

      200IM:

      Trouble, deep deep trouble here. I thought this event would be much slower than last year with everyone who graduated, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Right now, Nelis sits at 13th according to the top times list on this site (which isn’t 100% accurate, but close). In the MIAC (a conference i know well) he only will be beat by 1 person, but that’s for sure (Ted Marschall). I see about 3-4 people beating him at NESCAC’s. This would put him 17th or 18th already, so that’s not good. Other people to watch for from last year:
      Manuel Sanchez, Whittier (last guy with an invite last year)
      Jay Carpenter, USMMA (1:52 last year)
      Liam Gallagher, TCNJ (1:54.62 last year)
      Robert Donisch, UWSP (1:55.8 last year)
      Ben Gensler, UWSP (1:56.89 last year)
      Doug Fallon, Coast Guard (1:56.92 last year)

      I put him at 5/95 in this event as it stands right now.

      100 fly
      He is 9th in this one according to our site, but this includes Yury Zimarev, who we seem to all believe has stopped swimming for Old Westbury. I think this puts him 8th, which is nice. Looking at MIACs once again, there could be 3 to possibly pass him, but the one that for sure will, is already ahead of him and another one, Matt Stewart, would likely do the 200 free at NCAAs anyway. The NESCAC will once again hurt him, I see at least 3 people passing him from this conference. A quick list of names to watch for:
      Norman Scott
      Rob Collier
      John Dillon, Middlebury
      Adam Effinger, Rose-Hulman
      Joel Rousseau, WPI
      Chase Gross, UWSP
      Alex Wentworth-Ping, Williams
      Robert Donisch, UWSP
      Kyle Keller, Redlands
      Josh Forsman, TCNJ

      Right now i have him as 75/25 for the 100 fly.

      Good luck!

    • #34956
      facenorth
      Member

      Like Nelis, others in the league have their eyes fixed on results around the country right now. Very hard for me to believe that Resseguie’s 20.9 looks like it will end up on the wrong side of the line. There is hope though, guys like Leckey and Byers may not enter the 50. If Zimarev is not swimming any longer that will help also. The forecast at this point still isn’t a favorable one in my opinion. Ress, if you read these forums, great work last weekend, I was very impressed. I hope you use the rest of your eligibility if you have the opportunity to.

      Vinson looks like she’s in decent shape for the 50 as well.

      Men 200 Free Relay:
      Hope is sitting 9th and Calvin is 11th. Last year they took 10 relays for the men in 4 of the 5 relays and 11 in the other. JHU and the NESCAC schools still have to swim. JHU can only hurt Hope and the past few years Williams has put their relay together at the meet. For the MIAA’s sake, let’s hope that happens again. Unfortuantely for Calvin they will be taking a number of relay only swimmers and the NCAA doesn’t always love that. I wouldn’t be shocked if a number of the 1:24.0-1:24.2 schools TT that relay this weekend either. Especially DePauw and NYU. But that’s just me.

      Women 200 Free Relay:
      From what I can see, Hope’s women are tied for 9th. NESCACs start today.

      Wilson, 200 IM. Looking pretty favorable in my opinion right now.

      The rest of the country is trying to make a push at Stefl in the 500 but from what I can see, she still looks like she is in a pretty good position. I suppose that doesn’t matter because ‘A’ cuts are always fun and she has one in the 400 IM.

      Nelis, 200 IM. Sanchez didn’t jump him, the only guy to beat him in the Bluegrass Mtn Conference isn’t a d3 swimmer. Marschall from Carleton was expected, Westby was already infront of him. No one from the WIAC beat him. I thought I saw Jay Carpenter infront of him but could be making that up right now too. Metro’s start today, NESCACs next week. I’ll definitely take the over on the 5% silentp gave him but it’s still early to tell.

      400 Medley:
      Hope’s women starting to look a little bit better but those schools out east are a day behind. We’ll see what the Amherst, Williams, Middlebury, Colby foursome can do.

      Those are the day 1 bubbles as I see them, how about anyone else? SilentP, I know you’re at a meet but anything you can contribute would be great. Cheadle you always have some valuable insights too.

    • #34957
      N Dynamite
      Member

      @facenorth wrote:

      Unfortuantely for Calvin they will be taking a number of relay only swimmers and the NCAA doesn’t always love that.

      I’ve heard this comment come up before and I want to point out that the NCAA couldn’t care less how many relay only swimmers you have. There’s a cap – they only take 63 relay only swimmers (140 individuals/22 divers – total 225). When they start with the A cuts and then the fastest B cuts (filling in the events evenly) they won’t skip anyone if they have four relay only guys. Once they run out of spots they stop inviting people. The problem with Calvin having so many relay only guys is they need a lot of those 63 spots, and by the time the line gets to where they are there won’t be many spots left. There are two other things possibly working against them:

      1. If they need 4 spots and there are only 3 left those three go back into the individual events pot – Calvin’s out but 3 more individuals get in. That could change the number of relay only swimmers in Calvin’s favor.
      2. If the NCAA has to choose between two relays (both need two relay only swimmers, there are two spots left, an they’re both ranked the same), they go with the relay that is closest to the meet record. It’s impossible to say at this point whether that would help them or not.

      Hopefully this clears up any confusion.

    • #34958
      DonCheadle
      Member

      I don’t yet have an opinion on the 100 fly. But the 50 free is simple. There is NO WAY that Ress makes the meet with a 20.96 I agree that Lecky won’t swim the 50 free and that Zimaroz is probably done, but I think Byers swims and possibly wins it (nah, Courage wins, but still). This means that Ress is 20th right now. Yuck.

      The 200 Free Relay: as Nepolian pointed out at the end of the line you have to start looking at percentage over the national record. This is not good for Hope/Calvin because their 1:23.6 translates to a 3:27.5 (4Med) 3:07 (4Free) or 6:57 (8 Free). So it is very unlikely that 11 teams will make the 200 Free Relay.

      So in my opinion Calvin is (almost) done unless they do a TT. Frankly I do not understand why they didn’t do it last week. Can anyone explain that?

      The reason that I said “almost” done is that JBG 100 fly is actually looking okay. Right now he is 16th, but Zimarov and Test probably won’t enter it. This puts him at 14th. And looking at who is behind him he has a shot at staying in the top 20 (Obviously I think Nelis is very very safe in the 100 fly).

      Two other observations: All of Kenyon’s relay records end in 0 at the hundreths place. And the 200 Relay Records are really really fast. Most years the 4 best splits from the meet will not break either of those records.

    • #34959
      Buck
      Member

      Didn’t realize there was any confusion….

    • #34960
      silentp
      Member

      I think the 100 fly still looks good, but he took some hits this weekend.

      Luckily, Matt Stewart led off the 800 FR in a sub 1:40 time, which should mean he swims that instead of his 49.7 100 fly. Also, since Yury Zimarev appears to be done swimming, bumping him up another spot.

      With those 2 out, he sits at 11th with 1 weekend of meets to go. I believe i was 12th at this point when i made it in, so things are so far so good for Nelis.

    • #34961
      The Treat
      Member

      @DonCheadle wrote:

      I don’t yet have an opinion on the 100 fly. But the 50 free is simple. There is NO WAY that Ress makes the meet with a 20.96 I agree that Lecky won’t swim the 50 free and that Zimaroz is probably done, but I think Byers swims and possibly wins it (nah, Courage wins, but still). This means that Ress is 20th right now. Yuck.

      The 200 Free Relay: as Nepolian pointed out at the end of the line you have to start looking at percentage over the national record. This is not good for Hope/Calvin because their 1:23.6 translates to a 3:27.5 (4Med) 3:07 (4Free) or 6:57 (8 Free). So it is very unlikely that 11 teams will make the 200 Free Relay.

      So in my opinion Calvin is (almost) done unless they do a TT. Frankly I do not understand why they didn’t do it last week. Can anyone explain that?

      The reason that I said “almost” done is that JBG 100 fly is actually looking okay. Right now he is 16th, but Zimarov and Test probably won’t enter it. This puts him at 14th. And looking at who is behind him he has a shot at staying in the top 20 (Obviously I think Nelis is very very safe in the 100 fly).

      Two other observations: All of Kenyon’s relay records end in 0 at the hundreths place. And the 200 Relay Records are really really fast. Most years the 4 best splits from the meet will not break either of those records.

      i wouldnt be so sure that leckey doesnt swim the 50.

    • #34962
      swim5599
      Member

      no 200 IM for Leckey?

    • #34963
      The Treat
      Member

      @swim5599 wrote:

      no 200 IM for Leckey?

      didnt swim it at conference. dont know what he’ll choose but it’s no lock to swim either.

    • #34964
      swim5599
      Member

      Well I am just going out on a limb when I say this but he would have a better shot to score in the IM then the 50. Of course I have no idea how rested he was for conf.

    • #34965
      RadAGator
      Member

      he looks probably good in the fly…also kyle keller graduated last year.

Viewing 10 reply threads
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.