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Clearly Nelis is better at the 100 free than he is the 200 fly. 2:06 vs 48.5 this weekend. Should Nelis swim the 100 free at MIAA’s? The reason I say yes is becuase the net effect of pushing Hope guys down in the 100 free is washed out by the fact that he also pushes Voss and Powers down (what you are most concerned with when you push someone down is moving from top 6 to bottom 6: Both Powers and Voss are right at that line). It won’t make a big difference either way so he might as well do the event that he is better at.
Unless you think he can win the 200 fly, which I don’t.
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I don’t know… if he swims the 200 fly he’s pretty much guaranteed a top 2 finish based on what happened last year. The 100 free is much more a gamble of a race – someone could fall really easily into the consolation final.
I do like your bumping down logic though, but he might also be in a position as his team’s only real flyer to keep someone like Olivet’s Brian Johnson from moving up too.
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I think you also have to put into effect that Nelis will also be swimming 2 200 IM’ and the 400MR on Thursday, the 800 FR, 200 MR and 100 fly twice on Friday of league meet, and also going to be on the 400 FR so it might be better for him to skip swimming the 200 Fly twice in order to have some left for the last relay.
On the flip side Hope has Vogelzang, Vanderbroek, Kurti, and Rose that all have potential of making finals in the 100 free. With PBG, Gunderson, Powers, Voss, the K Frehsman you are just adding to an already crap shoot of a 100 free. Your strategy cheadle may back fire if Nelis gets into finals and kicks Kurti into consol.
It’s a gamble either way, considering Hope doesnt’ have very many 200 flyers, i would probably leave him in the 200 fly. He’s a beast so swimming 200 extra yards shouldn’t take a toll on his last relay performance. But it’s definitely a tough call.
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Nelis is a force in teh 100, but at then end of the day there are four other gusy on Hope’s team that solid 100 frestylers. I’d say Hope goes with the four horses in the 100 and Nelis in the 2 fly. Nelis is guaranteed 2nd in that event and won’t be bumping nearly as many Hope guys in the 2 fly.
Also, Stevo, that notion that he will be swimming a lot is applicable in some cases but not Nelis. This is the kid that every time he swam the 1 fly starting at the beginning of the MIAA meet to nats PRed almost everytime. There was a post on that last year listing each 100 fly that he swam. He gets faster as the meet goes on. Hope shoudl use that in the 2 fly.
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@stiles wrote:
This is the kid that every time he swam the 1 fly starting at the beginning of the MIAA meet to nats PRed almost everytime
Brian Fantana: They’ve done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
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This is the kid that every time he swam the 1 fly starting at the beginning of the MIAA meet to nats PRed almost every time.
Brian Fantana: They’ve done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
What doesn’t make sense is saying that every time something happened, it almost happened every time. This is what mav is pointing out.
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