NCAA Predictions

200 FR Denison
Grove City

500 Fr Newton
Peterson
Curtis/ spinelli
200 IM Westby
Treat

50 Fr Test
Burch/ Courage
Mcglaston/ Whitbeck]
400 MR Kenyon
JHU
Denison

200 MR JHU
Kenyon
‘ Denison
400 IM Peterson
Newton
Treat
200 fr Curtis
Ginder
Spinelli

100 fly Westby
Byers
Joel R

100 back Thomas
Fai
Ulrich
Ellis
100 br Zarins
Kegelman
Joe G
Soriano
800 FR Denison
Wash and Lee
Kenyon

1650 Dunn
Peterson
Spinelli
200 back Ulrich
Ginder
Thomas
100 Free Courage
Test
Sweet
200 Br Joe g
Zarins
Gensler

200 fly Williams boys 1-2

400 FR Denison
Kenyon

200 FR-
GCC
DU
JHU

500 FR
Peterson
Dunn
Newton
Curtis

200IM
Westby
Treat
Carpenter

50 FR
Test
Courage
Byers

400 MR
JHU
KC
Olaf

200 MR
JHU
KC
Olaf

400IM
Treat
Lake
Peterson?
Dunn

100 Fly
Zimarev
Byers
Harris
Westby

200
Ginder
Curtis
Guerard
Spins

100 BR
???? I’ll go with Zarins, Gosellar and then Espinoza

100 BK
Thomas
Fai
Ulrich

800 FR
DU
WL
JHU

1650
Dunn
Borland
Peterson

200BK
Ulrich
Thomas
Ginder

100FR
Test- gotta stick with my boy
Courage
Byers

200 BR
Gosellar
Zarins
Kegelman
Gensler
Fedderly

200 Fly-
Should be a fun race- Any combination of guys from EU, KC and Williams with Treat and Krz in there too. I cant pick 1 right now, lets just say Treat.

400FR
DU
WL
GCC
JHU
KC

OK looking ahead to Houston the weekend before the Men’s meet for the Women I see :

200 FR Relay
Kenyon
Denison

500 FR
Psaris Emory
Arad Kenyon

200 IM
Ertel Kenyon (new national record)
Orstein W+J

50 FR
Weima Calvin
Carlton Kenyon

400 MED Relay
Kenyon
Amherst

END OF FIRST DAY: 1)Kenyon 2) Denison 3) Emory

200 MED Relay
Kenyon
Denison

400 IM
Orstein, W+J
Nicholson, Williams

100 Fly
Psaris, Emory (new national record)
Ross, Middlebury

200 Free
Ertel, Kenyon (new national record)
Weima, Calvin

The race of the meet

100 Breast
Norsworthy, Colby
Connors, Kenyon

100 Back
Sasser, Amherst (third time in row and new national record)
Hostalet, Emory

800 FR Relay
Kenyon (new national record)
Emory

END OF SECOND DAY: The chase for the championship is over. Kenyon leads by more than 100 points. Emory is second and Denison is third.

1650
Arad, Kenyon
Cowie, Middlebury

200 Back
Sasser, Amherst (third time in a row and new national record)
Jacobssen, Kenyon

100 Free
Weima, Calvin (new national record and payback for loss in 200)
Ertel, Kenyon

200 Breast
Connors, Kenyon (payback for loss in 100)
Orstein, W+J

200 Fly
Psaris, Emory (new national record)
Kephart, Whitworth

400 FR Relay
Kenyon, (sweep of all relays)
Denison (this race determines second place

FINAL TEAM STANDINGS
1) Kenyon (the Ladies are back big time working in new streak)
2) Denison (just touches out Emory in last race)
3) Emory
4) Amherst (beats out rival Williams)
5) Williams
6) Washington U
7) Calvin
8) Middlebury
9) UW Stevens Point
10) John Hopkins

Swimmer of the Meet: A close one between Ertel and Sasser but the Amherst swimmer wins based on her third consecutive championship in both backstroke events.

Coach of the Meet: Parini gets the nod as his team jumps several places over last year’s finish and his ladies perform at their absolute best to beat out Emory the last day.

@silentp wrote:

@neswim wrote:

200 FR Relay
Kenyon
Denison

500 FR
Psaris Emory
Arad Kenyon

400 FR Relay
Kenyon, (sweep of all relays)
Denison (this race determines second place

Don’t both of these relays and the 500 have a good shot of the record going down? I don’t know how Psaris is training (as far as distance vs more sprints for her 100 fly), but i would think her 5:00 in-season performance means she’ll break the 500 record. I don’t know much about the 200 FR, but i see the Kenyon women taking down the 400 FR mark, really putting their stamp on this meet.

You’re probably right about the 500 record. Not as sure about the 200 free relay. It probably depends in part on which Kenyon relay goes off without Ertel. Denison could also do it if the freshman come up big…I assumed Ertel wouldn’t be in the Kenyon line-up for this one.

neswim:

You and I will probably be the only ones on this thread that interested in the women’s meet, but I am sure that this thread or one like it will have legs into March. We can keep a little attention on the women.

As for the team rankings, Emory will be second to Kenyon. The Eagles edge out Dennison. There will be a substantial drop to 4th place and I agree that Amherst is poised to repeat in 4th place. The NESCAC picture is so cloudy until NESCAC championships produces the qualifying times needed to travel to Houston. For Amherst, only Sasser is automatically qualified and Pritchard looks good with her 100 back time in the Williams meeet. The same is true for Williams. Only Nicholson has qualified and Molen looks good.

As for the invidual events, you have a little Kenyan/Dennison bias in your picks. It counter’s my NESCAC bias. I think you sell W& J’s Orstein short. The entrance of Ertle into the picture is just the motivation she needs to make a real race in the 200 IM if she decides to swim it. She may swim both breast events instead. I agree that Payne’s record in that event will be broken. There is no way that Connors beats Orstein in the 200 Breast. If Norsworthy can get back into shape, she will also be on the mix in that event. If Orstein swims the 100 breast, I think she wins.

I can say the same ” your selling short” comment about Weima. The competition in the freestyle events will be intense because the arrival of so many gifted FY’s such as Ertel, Zalesky, Preyss, Psaris ,Hawk –just to mention 5. Weima will may get beat in one but not both the 100,and 200 free events.

I tend to agree with you that Psaris has a good shot in the 200 fly, but as NESCAC fan, I want to make a strong case for Ross’s chances. Last year she battled mono. She is swimming just fine this season. Also, Kephart will vigorously defend her 2fly title. One thing for sure is that the 2-minute barrier in this event will be broken, maybe even shattered..

As for the relays, it is difficult for me to counter your arguments with data because the only potential relay winner from the NESCAC teams is Amherst in the 400 Medley and 800 Free. I know Kenyon has posted strong times in these two events, but let me attempt to make my case.
In the 800 free, the Amherst winning relay, as you know, returns intact. Sasser, Kim and Ramsey are swimming faster at this point in the season. Only Stern is swimming a litle slower. 154.5, 151, 154, and 150.5 are achievable times for Kim, Sasser, Ramsey and Stern. That 7:30 time makes for a good race. In any event, there will be a new record in the event. Kenyon will be favored, for sure.

The 400 Medly is another chance for Amherst’s because of Sasser’s opening backstoke leg. Assumes she breaks 55 and Kenyon swims a 58. Can that 3+ sec lead be overcome. Amherst will break 3:50. What time do you think Kenyon will swim?

Swimmer of the meet could be one of three swimmers at this time:

Orstein if she wins three events. With Payne out of the breast events, I’m think Orstein swims the two breast events. If so, the only chance for a record would be the 400 IM.

Ertel if she wins three events and sets a couple of national records.

Sasser, if the above doesn’t happen. Could happen for her if she wins the two backs in record time and her 2 back time drops to 1:57 or below.

@Nescacfan wrote:

neswim:

As for the relays, it is difficult for me to counter your arguments with data because the only potential relay winner from the NESCAC teams is Amherst in the 400 Medley and 800 Free. I know Kenyon has posted strong times in these two events, but let me attempt to make my case.
In the 800 free, the Amherst winning relay, as you know, returns intact. Sasser, Kim and Ramsey are swimming faster at this point in the season. Only Stern is swimming a litle slower. 154.5, 151, 154, and 150.5 are achievable times for Kim, Sasser, Ramsey and Stern. That 7:30 time makes for a good race. In any event, there will be a new record in the event. Kenyon will be favored, for sure.

The 400 Medly is another chance for Amherst’s because of Sasser’s opening backstoke leg. Assumes she breaks 55 and Kenyon swims a 58. Can that 3+ sec lead be overcome. Amherst will break 3:50. What time do you think Kenyon will swim? .

I pretty much agree that a number of my predictions are debatable…clearly Orstein could elect the 100 breast vs 400 IM and would be the favoriate in either. The pick of Connors over Orstein is a bit of long shot…Orstein if she’s in good form should be the favorite.

800 Free Relay….I don’t think so with Amherst. I agree that they return all swimmers and 75% are swimming better this year. …BUT I think Ertel splits a 1:49 and Wenzlau splitting a 1:52 or 1:51 its pretty much over…Kenyon has 3-4 other swimmers capable of 1:53. I think there is a chance they break 7:30…its a bit of a stretch but doable.

400 Medley Relay…Again Ertel is the difference maker together with freshman backstroker. The lead after the back is 3 seconds not 4 and its pretty much over after the breast..Ertel splits a 55 and the way Carlton is swimming right now she’s 51 plus….no record but probably break 3:50…Amherst can’t match that…

Kenyon is most likely to lose the sprint relays (200 free, or 200 MR) and Denison seems like the threat. I think Denison’s team is somewhat underrated. Parini has some very impressive freshman sprinters and the team, on the whole, swam fast at Miami. They can overcome Emory’s greter depth with outstanding relay performances.

I agree with other comments re Weima, Orstein, Ross, etc….however, I still maintain that Sasser is my pick for swimmer of the meet….another two national records….great relay swims…3 consecutive national records and, unless Weima or Ertel somehow manage 3 national titles and 2 national records.

Weima is a great swimmer and capable of going 1:48 low in the 200, but to say she is going to go 49.7 in the 100 is a bit of a stretch. She has only been 23.3 in the 50, and probably only 50.8 in the 100. I think she goes 50.4, but does not break the record.

The women’s meet is going to be so fast. It will be the fastest meet in history, with so many records at stake.

Ain’t no way Marsman’s 100 free record is going down. No one will touch it.

Keep in mind Wash U does not have it breaststroker or flyer from last year on the women’s side. I still think 6th is a good prediction for them, and 5th is not unreachable.

I dont know what most of you guys are smoking (please inform me because it seems to give a wicked trip). Emory has the top two swimmers in the 2fly, with Brown at 151 and Petroff at 152. Brown choked at nationals last year, being a rookie, but he should put up a fight. Petroff is a 152 coming in as a freshman. if the title goes to a swimmer who break the 150 mark, the odds are definately for Brown or Petroff.

I would think the winner would go under 1:50 as well and my money is on Millen.

I could seen Millen under 1:50 maybe, but probably no one else this year. Treat, Krz, and the 2 Emory boys should be close and Harris could bust one out, but its a tough barrier and I think we will see alot of 1:50s and 51s

Allow me to post this spoiler, who has had numerous mid-season swims that boggle the mind: Matt Stewart. Ignore 200 Fly times, we cannot possibly know each team’s training strategy into duel meets. He’s pulled off amazing Free and Fly swims alreay, and we all know JC works the Gusties hard. It may be a MIAC bias, but I would like to see (and am picking) Matt Stewart as a challenger for the 200 Fly title.

Stewart has really had some great swims, but I am not sure he will win the 200 fly. WIlliams goes crazy at the nat meet every year, so my money is on Millen

@swim5599 wrote:

Stewart has really had some great swims, but I am not sure he will win the 200 fly. WIlliams goes crazy at the nat meet every year, so my money is on Millen

who doesnt go crazy of nationals?

I can go back to 2004 and honestly say in terms of time drops from the conf meet to the nat meet, Williams is near the top. That is why I pick Millen to win the 200 fly, and also why I think Spinelli will be 4:26 in the 500 this year

I think Harrison Brown, after going 1:51 mid-season last year, is a big threat as well. He ought to be well sub 1:50, but totally choked (or something) last year having a great first two days.

Someone to watch for:

Today at the Emory vs. Transylvannia meet Andrew Callam popped off a 21.0 50 free and 50.8 100 fly. Pretty darn good since his best times are only 20.6 and 50.4. The kid trains like a machine and is definitely going to be making an impact in everything he swims at Nationals. Definitely my darkhorse pick for the 50.

It’s so fun to see the swims that pop up around now with the post winter training “taper” that everyone seems to hit. Anything else out there noteworthy this weekend?