NCAA Predictions

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    • #12200
      silentp
      Member

      Someone had to do it, so i’ll be the one. I’ll pick em all, you can pick em all, we can disagree, and we’ll probably both be wrong:

      200 FR
      Winner: Denison, too much talent and will be excited to get the meet rollin’
      Sleeper: GAC, 2 studs are both seniors and will want to go out on top

      500
      Winner: Peterson, keeps the Denison momentum going
      Sleeper: Dunn, Kenyon can teach him some earlier speed

      200 IM
      Winner: Westby, he probably swam just prelims at Carthage to prepare for prelims at NCAAs, after last year
      Sleeper: Blair Worthington, converted time is really fast and he goes to Kenyon

      50
      Winner: Byers, Denison momentum baby!
      Sleeper: Burch, Springfield can do more than dive, he was out fast last year

      400 MR
      Winner: Kenyon, too strong up the middle, others will step up
      Sleeper: Olaf, they’re the only team without a weak spot

      200 MR
      Winner: Denison, they start it back up
      Sleeper: Kzoo, they’ll be out fast and will have open water

      400 IM
      Winner: Treat, only other guy under 4 last year, is swimming well right now
      Sleeper: Heyboer, was just 4:08 in season and has lots of room to improve

      100 fly
      Winner: Westby, just looking too good right now to pick against
      Sleeper: Norman Scott, williams will be on fire and he’ll continue to drop “But he’s got 2 first names!”

      200 free
      Winner: Curtis… the guy went 1:37!
      Sleeper:Ginder, senior who got outtouched last year, will want revenge

      100 breast
      Winner: Espinosa, fastest split so far in D3 and lots of room to improve upon that with no clear cut winner
      Sleeper: Carpenter, ya know, Jesus was the son of a Carpenter.

      100 back
      Winner: Thomas, he’s been fast, very fast and is a freshman on the move
      Sleeper: Fai, had liver trouble last year but the word is that he is back

      800 FR
      Winner: Denison, come on, be serious, who didn’t see this pick?
      Sleeper: Washington and Lee, they lost no one and have Ginder, they’ll fight for 2nd

      1650
      Winner: Dunn, won’t even be close
      Sleeper: Borland, who was the last stud freshman to bust out in the mile for Kenyon? oh yeah, Dunn.

      200 back
      Winner: Ulrich, senior swimmer wanting his 1st win
      Sleeper: Thomas, he will continue to improve and be in the hunt

      100 free
      Winner: Courage, half a second in a 100 is a lot
      Sleeper: Test, half a second is never too much

      200 breast
      Winner: Gosselar, 2:01 was smokin, he might even be under 2 this year!
      Sleeper: Kegelman, Hopkins can do wonders with strokers, it was his first big meet last year

      200 fly
      Winner: Millen, 1:54 in a dual is doing ok, look for him under 1:50
      Sleeper: Norman Scott, this kid sleeps a lot, but he’ll want to fight with his teammate for this one

      400 FR
      Winner: Denison, they have speed and endurance and will be stepping up all meet
      Sleeper: Kenyon, NEVER count out Kenyon on this relay

    • #33623
      swim5599
      Member

      200 FR Denison
      Grove City

      500 Fr Newton
      Peterson
      Curtis/ spinelli
      200 IM Westby
      Treat

      50 Fr Test
      Burch/ Courage
      Mcglaston/ Whitbeck]
      400 MR Kenyon
      JHU
      Denison

      200 MR JHU
      Kenyon
      ‘ Denison
      400 IM Peterson
      Newton
      Treat
      200 fr Curtis
      Ginder
      Spinelli

      100 fly Westby
      Byers
      Joel R

      100 back Thomas
      Fai
      Ulrich
      Ellis
      100 br Zarins
      Kegelman
      Joe G
      Soriano
      800 FR Denison
      Wash and Lee
      Kenyon

      1650 Dunn
      Peterson
      Spinelli
      200 back Ulrich
      Ginder
      Thomas
      100 Free Courage
      Test
      Sweet
      200 Br Joe g
      Zarins
      Gensler

      200 fly Williams boys 1-2

      400 FR Denison
      Kenyon

    • #33624

      200 FR-
      GCC
      DU
      JHU

      500 FR
      Peterson
      Dunn
      Newton
      Curtis

      200IM
      Westby
      Treat
      Carpenter

      50 FR
      Test
      Courage
      Byers

      400 MR
      JHU
      KC
      Olaf

      200 MR
      JHU
      KC
      Olaf

      400IM
      Treat
      Lake
      Peterson?
      Dunn

      100 Fly
      Zimarev
      Byers
      Harris
      Westby

      200
      Ginder
      Curtis
      Guerard
      Spins

      100 BR
      ???? I’ll go with Zarins, Gosellar and then Espinoza

      100 BK
      Thomas
      Fai
      Ulrich

      800 FR
      DU
      WL
      JHU

      1650
      Dunn
      Borland
      Peterson

      200BK
      Ulrich
      Thomas
      Ginder

      100FR
      Test- gotta stick with my boy
      Courage
      Byers

      200 BR
      Gosellar
      Zarins
      Kegelman
      Gensler
      Fedderly

      200 Fly-
      Should be a fun race- Any combination of guys from EU, KC and Williams with Treat and Krz in there too. I cant pick 1 right now, lets just say Treat.

      400FR
      DU
      WL
      GCC
      JHU
      KC

    • #33625
      neswim
      Member

      OK looking ahead to Houston the weekend before the Men’s meet for the Women I see :

      200 FR Relay
      Kenyon
      Denison

      500 FR
      Psaris Emory
      Arad Kenyon

      200 IM
      Ertel Kenyon (new national record)
      Orstein W+J

      50 FR
      Weima Calvin
      Carlton Kenyon

      400 MED Relay
      Kenyon
      Amherst

      END OF FIRST DAY: 1)Kenyon 2) Denison 3) Emory

      200 MED Relay
      Kenyon
      Denison

      400 IM
      Orstein, W+J
      Nicholson, Williams

      100 Fly
      Psaris, Emory (new national record)
      Ross, Middlebury

      200 Free
      Ertel, Kenyon (new national record)
      Weima, Calvin

      The race of the meet

      100 Breast
      Norsworthy, Colby
      Connors, Kenyon

      100 Back
      Sasser, Amherst (third time in row and new national record)
      Hostalet, Emory

      800 FR Relay
      Kenyon (new national record)
      Emory

      END OF SECOND DAY: The chase for the championship is over. Kenyon leads by more than 100 points. Emory is second and Denison is third.

      1650
      Arad, Kenyon
      Cowie, Middlebury

      200 Back
      Sasser, Amherst (third time in a row and new national record)
      Jacobssen, Kenyon

      100 Free
      Weima, Calvin (new national record and payback for loss in 200)
      Ertel, Kenyon

      200 Breast
      Connors, Kenyon (payback for loss in 100)
      Orstein, W+J

      200 Fly
      Psaris, Emory (new national record)
      Kephart, Whitworth

      400 FR Relay
      Kenyon, (sweep of all relays)
      Denison (this race determines second place

      FINAL TEAM STANDINGS
      1) Kenyon (the Ladies are back big time working in new streak)
      2) Denison (just touches out Emory in last race)
      3) Emory
      4) Amherst (beats out rival Williams)
      5) Williams
      6) Washington U
      7) Calvin
      8) Middlebury
      9) UW Stevens Point
      10) John Hopkins

      Swimmer of the Meet: A close one between Ertel and Sasser but the Amherst swimmer wins based on her third consecutive championship in both backstroke events.

      Coach of the Meet: Parini gets the nod as his team jumps several places over last year’s finish and his ladies perform at their absolute best to beat out Emory the last day.

    • #33626
      silentp
      Member

      @neswim wrote:

      200 FR Relay
      Kenyon
      Denison

      500 FR
      Psaris Emory
      Arad Kenyon

      400 FR Relay
      Kenyon, (sweep of all relays)
      Denison (this race determines second place

      Don’t both of these relays and the 500 have a good shot of the record going down? I don’t know how Psaris is training (as far as distance vs more sprints for her 100 fly), but i would think her 5:00 in-season performance means she’ll break the 500 record. I don’t know much about the 200 FR, but i see the Kenyon women taking down the 400 FR mark, really putting their stamp on this meet.

    • #33627
      neswim
      Member

      @silentp wrote:

      @neswim wrote:

      200 FR Relay
      Kenyon
      Denison

      500 FR
      Psaris Emory
      Arad Kenyon

      400 FR Relay
      Kenyon, (sweep of all relays)
      Denison (this race determines second place

      Don’t both of these relays and the 500 have a good shot of the record going down? I don’t know how Psaris is training (as far as distance vs more sprints for her 100 fly), but i would think her 5:00 in-season performance means she’ll break the 500 record. I don’t know much about the 200 FR, but i see the Kenyon women taking down the 400 FR mark, really putting their stamp on this meet.

      You’re probably right about the 500 record. Not as sure about the 200 free relay. It probably depends in part on which Kenyon relay goes off without Ertel. Denison could also do it if the freshman come up big…I assumed Ertel wouldn’t be in the Kenyon line-up for this one.

    • #33628
      Nescacfan
      Member

      neswim:

      You and I will probably be the only ones on this thread that interested in the women’s meet, but I am sure that this thread or one like it will have legs into March. We can keep a little attention on the women.

      As for the team rankings, Emory will be second to Kenyon. The Eagles edge out Dennison. There will be a substantial drop to 4th place and I agree that Amherst is poised to repeat in 4th place. The NESCAC picture is so cloudy until NESCAC championships produces the qualifying times needed to travel to Houston. For Amherst, only Sasser is automatically qualified and Pritchard looks good with her 100 back time in the Williams meeet. The same is true for Williams. Only Nicholson has qualified and Molen looks good.

      As for the invidual events, you have a little Kenyan/Dennison bias in your picks. It counter’s my NESCAC bias. I think you sell W& J’s Orstein short. The entrance of Ertle into the picture is just the motivation she needs to make a real race in the 200 IM if she decides to swim it. She may swim both breast events instead. I agree that Payne’s record in that event will be broken. There is no way that Connors beats Orstein in the 200 Breast. If Norsworthy can get back into shape, she will also be on the mix in that event. If Orstein swims the 100 breast, I think she wins.

      I can say the same ” your selling short” comment about Weima. The competition in the freestyle events will be intense because the arrival of so many gifted FY’s such as Ertel, Zalesky, Preyss, Psaris ,Hawk –just to mention 5. Weima will may get beat in one but not both the 100,and 200 free events.

      I tend to agree with you that Psaris has a good shot in the 200 fly, but as NESCAC fan, I want to make a strong case for Ross’s chances. Last year she battled mono. She is swimming just fine this season. Also, Kephart will vigorously defend her 2fly title. One thing for sure is that the 2-minute barrier in this event will be broken, maybe even shattered..

      As for the relays, it is difficult for me to counter your arguments with data because the only potential relay winner from the NESCAC teams is Amherst in the 400 Medley and 800 Free. I know Kenyon has posted strong times in these two events, but let me attempt to make my case.
      In the 800 free, the Amherst winning relay, as you know, returns intact. Sasser, Kim and Ramsey are swimming faster at this point in the season. Only Stern is swimming a litle slower. 154.5, 151, 154, and 150.5 are achievable times for Kim, Sasser, Ramsey and Stern. That 7:30 time makes for a good race. In any event, there will be a new record in the event. Kenyon will be favored, for sure.

      The 400 Medly is another chance for Amherst’s because of Sasser’s opening backstoke leg. Assumes she breaks 55 and Kenyon swims a 58. Can that 3+ sec lead be overcome. Amherst will break 3:50. What time do you think Kenyon will swim?

      Swimmer of the meet could be one of three swimmers at this time:

      Orstein if she wins three events. With Payne out of the breast events, I’m think Orstein swims the two breast events. If so, the only chance for a record would be the 400 IM.

      Ertel if she wins three events and sets a couple of national records.

      Sasser, if the above doesn’t happen. Could happen for her if she wins the two backs in record time and her 2 back time drops to 1:57 or below.

    • #33629
      neswim
      Member

      @Nescacfan wrote:

      neswim:

      As for the relays, it is difficult for me to counter your arguments with data because the only potential relay winner from the NESCAC teams is Amherst in the 400 Medley and 800 Free. I know Kenyon has posted strong times in these two events, but let me attempt to make my case.
      In the 800 free, the Amherst winning relay, as you know, returns intact. Sasser, Kim and Ramsey are swimming faster at this point in the season. Only Stern is swimming a litle slower. 154.5, 151, 154, and 150.5 are achievable times for Kim, Sasser, Ramsey and Stern. That 7:30 time makes for a good race. In any event, there will be a new record in the event. Kenyon will be favored, for sure.

      The 400 Medly is another chance for Amherst’s because of Sasser’s opening backstoke leg. Assumes she breaks 55 and Kenyon swims a 58. Can that 3+ sec lead be overcome. Amherst will break 3:50. What time do you think Kenyon will swim? .

      I pretty much agree that a number of my predictions are debatable…clearly Orstein could elect the 100 breast vs 400 IM and would be the favoriate in either. The pick of Connors over Orstein is a bit of long shot…Orstein if she’s in good form should be the favorite.

      800 Free Relay….I don’t think so with Amherst. I agree that they return all swimmers and 75% are swimming better this year. …BUT I think Ertel splits a 1:49 and Wenzlau splitting a 1:52 or 1:51 its pretty much over…Kenyon has 3-4 other swimmers capable of 1:53. I think there is a chance they break 7:30…its a bit of a stretch but doable.

      400 Medley Relay…Again Ertel is the difference maker together with freshman backstroker. The lead after the back is 3 seconds not 4 and its pretty much over after the breast..Ertel splits a 55 and the way Carlton is swimming right now she’s 51 plus….no record but probably break 3:50…Amherst can’t match that…

      Kenyon is most likely to lose the sprint relays (200 free, or 200 MR) and Denison seems like the threat. I think Denison’s team is somewhat underrated. Parini has some very impressive freshman sprinters and the team, on the whole, swam fast at Miami. They can overcome Emory’s greter depth with outstanding relay performances.

      I agree with other comments re Weima, Orstein, Ross, etc….however, I still maintain that Sasser is my pick for swimmer of the meet….another two national records….great relay swims…3 consecutive national records and, unless Weima or Ertel somehow manage 3 national titles and 2 national records.

    • #33630
      swim5599
      Member

      Weima is a great swimmer and capable of going 1:48 low in the 200, but to say she is going to go 49.7 in the 100 is a bit of a stretch. She has only been 23.3 in the 50, and probably only 50.8 in the 100. I think she goes 50.4, but does not break the record.

      The women’s meet is going to be so fast. It will be the fastest meet in history, with so many records at stake.

    • #33631

      Ain’t no way Marsman’s 100 free record is going down. No one will touch it.

      Keep in mind Wash U does not have it breaststroker or flyer from last year on the women’s side. I still think 6th is a good prediction for them, and 5th is not unreachable.

    • #33632

      I dont know what most of you guys are smoking (please inform me because it seems to give a wicked trip). Emory has the top two swimmers in the 2fly, with Brown at 151 and Petroff at 152. Brown choked at nationals last year, being a rookie, but he should put up a fight. Petroff is a 152 coming in as a freshman. if the title goes to a swimmer who break the 150 mark, the odds are definately for Brown or Petroff.

    • #33633
      silentp
      Member

      @wickedfoolish wrote:

      I dont know what most of you guys are smoking (please inform me because it seems to give a wicked trip). Emory has the top two swimmers in the 2fly, with Brown at 151 and Petroff at 152. Brown choked at nationals last year, being a rookie, but he should put up a fight. Petroff is a 152 coming in as a freshman. if the title goes to a swimmer who break the 150 mark, the odds are definately for Brown or Petroff.

      I believe we are back to men with this post, so i’ll help here. I believe what people are saying is that we don’t care what people go in with, but rather what they end with. Emory may be 1-2 going into NCAAs, but i’m still sticking with my prediction of the Williams guy (Millen) who was 1:54 in season already, with the shortened NESCAC season.

      It’d be interesting to see how many people who were ranked 1st at midseason actually won their event in March. I recall when i was swimming, Kzoo was ranked 1st in the 200 FR (women) at midseason and didn’t even end up making it to the meet! That sucked.

    • #33634
      swim5599
      Member

      I would think the winner would go under 1:50 as well and my money is on Millen.

    • #33635

      I could seen Millen under 1:50 maybe, but probably no one else this year. Treat, Krz, and the 2 Emory boys should be close and Harris could bust one out, but its a tough barrier and I think we will see alot of 1:50s and 51s

    • #33636
      middie07
      Member

      Allow me to post this spoiler, who has had numerous mid-season swims that boggle the mind: Matt Stewart. Ignore 200 Fly times, we cannot possibly know each team’s training strategy into duel meets. He’s pulled off amazing Free and Fly swims alreay, and we all know JC works the Gusties hard. It may be a MIAC bias, but I would like to see (and am picking) Matt Stewart as a challenger for the 200 Fly title.

    • #33637
      swim5599
      Member

      Stewart has really had some great swims, but I am not sure he will win the 200 fly. WIlliams goes crazy at the nat meet every year, so my money is on Millen

    • #33638

      @swim5599 wrote:

      Stewart has really had some great swims, but I am not sure he will win the 200 fly. WIlliams goes crazy at the nat meet every year, so my money is on Millen

      who doesnt go crazy of nationals?

    • #33639
      silentp
      Member

      @wickedfoolish wrote:

      who doesnt go crazy of nationals?

      I’m actually going to agree with Swim5599 on this one. A lot of teams don’t get crazy at nationals and actually have subpar swims.

    • #33640
      swim5599
      Member

      I can go back to 2004 and honestly say in terms of time drops from the conf meet to the nat meet, Williams is near the top. That is why I pick Millen to win the 200 fly, and also why I think Spinelli will be 4:26 in the 500 this year

    • #33641

      I think Harrison Brown, after going 1:51 mid-season last year, is a big threat as well. He ought to be well sub 1:50, but totally choked (or something) last year having a great first two days.

    • #33642
      Flicka
      Member

      Someone to watch for:

      Today at the Emory vs. Transylvannia meet Andrew Callam popped off a 21.0 50 free and 50.8 100 fly. Pretty darn good since his best times are only 20.6 and 50.4. The kid trains like a machine and is definitely going to be making an impact in everything he swims at Nationals. Definitely my darkhorse pick for the 50.

      It’s so fun to see the swims that pop up around now with the post winter training “taper” that everyone seems to hit. Anything else out there noteworthy this weekend?

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