Nationals?

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    • #12374

      What does it look like for the MIAC at nats?

      Does Olaf have a shot at a top 5 team finish?

      Where will GAC finish?

      Can either GAC or Olaf realistically win a relay (or two)?

      Could Westby be swimmer of the meet?

      Other than Westby, who else has a shot at winning an individual event? Stewart? Marschall in the 400 IM?

      I don’t follow other conferences to closely, so I am curious as to peoples thoughts.

    • #35737

      i think the most obvious shot for a national championship would be westby in the fly or IM, both of olafs medleys(both seeded 1st), or GAC in the 4 free relay (being seeded 1st). with newton and peterson returning in the 500, it is going to take a 25-26 to win it. who knows what stewart can do with people next to him (he won the MIAC 500 by 6 seconds) so hopefully he can make it interesting. in the 4 im, ted will have to cut 5-6 to have a shot, but who knows whats possible!

    • #35738
      silentp
      Member

      @Chapel Partner wrote:

      Does Olaf have a shot at a top 5 team finish?

      Highly unlikely, unless JHU falters. The top 5 is pretty set, Kenyon, Emory, Denison, Williams and JHU. They will be 6th though.

      @Chapel Partner wrote:

      Where will GAC finish?

      I think 9th, 8th through 10th is a strong possibility.

      @Chapel Partner wrote:

      Can either GAC or Olaf realistically win a relay (or two)?

      Yup, both Ole relays have a shot, although despite their current ranking (may change this weekend), i wouldn’t say they are the favorites. Kenyon looks strong in both, but yes, it’s very realistic.

      GAC will have a harder time and I’d say they have a better shot in the 200 FR than the 400 FR actually. I see them 3rd or 4th in the 400 FR, with the 200 FR being anywhere from 1st to 7th. They do have 2 stud seniors though who will swim their last meet, could help.

      @Chapel Partner wrote:

      Could Westby be swimmer of the meet?

      Yup, and it’s not a longshot. I don’t see anyone winning 3 events and while he’s not my pick in the breast, as long as he’s top 5, with strong 1st places in his other 2 (48 in the fly, 1:50-low or sub 1:50 in the IM), he has a shot. And i don’t think that is a longshot for him at all.

      @Chapel Partner wrote:

      Other than Westby, who else has a shot at winning an individual event? Stewart? Marschall in the 400 IM?

      Stewart in the 500 has a shot. 4:26 will probably win, and he dropped time last year, but that’s a good sized drop. Marschall in the 4 IM would take about a 4 second drop, and I am not sure he has that in him this year. I suppose someone could win the 50, since it’s wide open and the MIAC has 3 solid guys, but not betting on it.

    • #35739

      If you just look at the top times of the season so far it looks like Gustavus is sitting quite a bit better Olaf. Any reasons that you think that Olaf will place higher than Gustavus? Olaf has the Med relays which will be strong but there free relays are lacking some what, especially if their 800 free relay does not get in. And Gustavus has quite a few more individual swims than they do. Just from looking at the top times I would be surprised if Olaf beats GAC at nationals.

    • #35740

      Does Olaf have any divers there?

    • #35741
      SeekUp
      Member

      St. Olaf has Christian Lorentzen who placed 5th and 6th in the two diving events last year.

    • #35742
      swim5599
      Member

      I think it might even be a tall order for Stewart to break up the top 4 in the 500. I look for Peterson, Curtis, Newton, and Spinelli to all be under 4:27.

    • #35743
      N Dynamite
      Member

      Don’t forget about Dunn

    • #35744
      swim5599
      Member

      Yes and Dunn as well. ANyone of the Kenyon guys Borland or Rantz also

    • #35745

      while it would be awesome for the MIAC to win all those events, realistically Westby has the greatest chance for a championship (or multiple) out of any swimmer in the MIAC, not including the relays of course.

    • #35746
      swim5599
      Member

      Yeah I still think Westby is probably going to be your swimmer of the meet. I am not sure if he can win the breaststroke, but I am not ruling him out.

    • #35747
      Kari Byron
      Member

      @Procrastinator wrote:

      If you just look at the top times of the season so far it looks like Gustavus is sitting quite a bit better Olaf. Any reasons that you think that Olaf will place higher than Gustavus? Olaf has the Med relays which will be strong but there free relays are lacking some what, especially if their 800 free relay does not get in. And Gustavus has quite a few more individual swims than they do. Just from looking at the top times I would be surprised if Olaf beats GAC at nationals.

      GAC has more guys going (GAC 9 to Olaf’s 6, I think), but you have to look where they’ll place. Westby will be top 1 – 4 or 5 in all his individuals, plus they have two, top 5 relays. That’s a lot of points from only a few guys.

      GAC’s guys are mostly sitting in bubble spots, 7 – 12th and 14 – 20th, with 2 relays that should score big.

      Olaf can definitely not beat GAC at NCAAs if that 800FR doesn’t make it. They’ll be forced to swim relays with their Med guys…. God knows watching a breaststroke try to swim sprint free isn’t exactly pretty.

    • #35748

      although posting this text concludes i have absolutely no life, i scored out gustavus and olaf as according to their EXACT seed times for both: the gusties outscore the oles roughly 253 to 224. obviously these scores are not exact, but hey, to say olaf is the favorite is well…..incorrect

    • #35749
      Tiger2
      Member

      …and do these scores include diving ?

    • #35750
      CRUNCHYSOCK
      Member

      If history has taught us anything, and it hasn’t, it is that St. Olaf will beat GAC at Nationals. You’re right though, it will be much more difficult for them if they don’t get their 800FR in. GAC is bringing an impressive contingent, but with Westby and a top 5 diver, it will be tough for GAC to beat them.

    • #35751

      yes, i gave christian 4th on both boards

    • #35752

      Crunchysock. I would say that history shows that Gustavus scores higher at nationals. It is true that when Olaf had Casson and Hauck and what not that they scored very high at nationals but unless I am mistaken last year was the first year in a while that Olaf beat Gustavus at nationals.

    • #35753
      swim5599
      Member

      Olaf def swam better at last years meet, in terms of time drops from conf, but with 3 less guys and an 8 fr on the bubble this year might be tough

    • #35754
      openwater
      Member

      For what it is worth:

      Quick trip through the psyche sheet:

      19 rows of individual qualifiers = exactly 140 swimmers
      12 rows of relays = exactly 63 relay only swimmers

      If correct Olaf has 7, Gustavus has 9, Carleton has 1 and Hamline has 1.
      Plus divers.

      your mileage may vary.

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