MVP

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    • #11986
      silentp
      Member

      We discussed this before, but who is it? If you go by 3 wins, then:
      Heyboer has great shot but will be very challenged in the 200 back if Ellis swims it (although Heyboer would be the favorite) and the 200 IM would be a shoot out when the back-breast flip is factored into the time.

      Ellis will be the fastest officially in only 1 event (i believe Bacon has been 50.), but his 100 fly was faster than anyone’s last season and his 100 free would probably be the favorite going in, if he swims.

      Fonzi is the longest shot there, while he should win the 100 breast, the 3rd day event would be tough and we have no idea about his free ability to know about his 50 free.

      The other factor could be the outstanding swim/swims, here it’s the opposite:
      Fonzi could end up with a Boss like swim and have the best shot of doing something outstanding. IF he goes a sub 55 (i don’t think he will), then he’d be the favorite, even if he doesn’t win another event, right?
      Ellis could be a sub 50 backstroker and probably throw down another impressive swim, but wouldn’t necessarily win 3, so would that make him the winner?
      Heyboer could throw down an impressive swim, but is probably the least likely (just in my opinion) to have that jaw dropping swim because it would take a close to 4:01 4IM or a sub 1:50 2back to have an equally impressive swim as the other 2, but hey, he could do it too.

    • #30785
      maverick1
      Member

      bacon was a 51.29 swimming against pbg at the 2005 miaa champs and last year he was a 51 high in the event, so ellis is the fastest coming in.

    • #30786
      silentp
      Member

      Heyboer seems to be the favorite but not by much meaning (probably) that most people feel a 3 event guy is more valuable than a 1 or 2 trick stud, or that heyboer will see significantly more time drops than ellis (considering ellis is faster coming in comparitively).

    • #30787
      Gargamel
      Member

      This might be worth bringing back up. I think you have to add Krone to the list, I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he breaks two MIAA records and he’s not even on the poll. Especially if he beats Heyboer in the 500. Trouble here is he likely won’t win his 3rd event. So if there is a 3 event winner it might be Bobby Dekker. Krone over Heyboer in the 500, Dekker in the heyboerless IM and both flys. His quality of swim may not be as great the breaststrokes of Espinosa of the backstroke or Ellis or Heyboer but do you give him the nod if he’s the only triple winner?

    • #30788
      silentp
      Member

      @Gargamel wrote:

      This might be worth bringing back up. I think you have to add Krone to the list, I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he breaks two MIAA records and he’s not even on the poll. Especially if he beats Heyboer in the 500. Trouble here is he likely won’t win his 3rd event. So if there is a 3 event winner it might be Bobby Dekker. Krone over Heyboer in the 500, Dekker in the heyboerless IM and both flys. His quality of swim may not be as great the breaststrokes of Espinosa of the backstroke or Ellis or Heyboer but do you give him the nod if he’s the only triple winner?

      Great points, but if Ellis swims the 100 fly, he may beat Dekker (not to mention Nelis will be in the fight), giving him 2 wins with a shot in the 50 or whatever else he swims. Dekker may have 2 wins still with the 2fly and 200 IM.
      Heyboer would likely have his 2 wins in the 4IM and 200 back, and will have a shot in the 500 (if he swims it) or 200 IM (favorite if he swims it). I don’t see Fonsy being a multiple event winner, so unless he breaks Boss’s 100 breast record (and i don’t predict it), i don’t see him winning it.
      Krone, in my predictions, breaks 2 records and wins 2 events. If no one else wins 3, he should get it because i don’t see anyone else breaking 2 league records.
      If someone wins 3, like Heyboer or Dekker or even Ellis, i still say they should have to break 2 records to win the award over Krone because as a distance swimmer, he doesn’t get a 3rd event, like the 1000.

    • #30789
      Insight
      Member

      This is always a great question and I believe that we could come up with the MVP better then the coaches. Oh yes, I said it.

      The criteria that seems to be used is who will score the most points at nationals. Going by that logic it has to be Heyboer or Fonzi because they both have the best chances at scoring in finals. Ellis and Krone coming in after that. I am not going to say the outright favorite because I don’t know what Heyboer will be swimming and I don’t know how Fonz’s 2 breast wil drop.

      That being said, if you look at it from a stricterly MIAA stand point, it becomes much more blurry. I can see the arguement for Krone and the two records with 2 wins, but is he really THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER (swimmer)?

      This same argument could used with Fonz because he is only a “one trick stud”…except for that one trick makes the relays competitve on a national level. Something that Kroner will not do.. So he is out in my mind.

      Then you have Ellis or Heyboer. I am not going to bet on Ellis because he could be entered in the 3 events that are the most competitive, 50/100/1fl. He could come out on top of all three just as easily as he could get a 3rd and a pair of 4ths. I can’t vote for that because there is to much incertainty. I am not saying that he won’t win, but it is hard to vote for him at this point.

      That leaves Heyboer. A lock in the 4IM and (forgive me Ellis fans) the 200 bk. I believe this to be true because I believe Ellis won’ be in the 2 bk. THe toss up wil be Heyboer in teh 500/2IM and with him going 4:41 that puts him in line to keep up with Krone in the 500 and possibly beat him/set a record. ALso, I think he has a sliver of a better chance at scoring more points than Fonzi at Nationals.

      Thus, Heyboer is my vote.

      Whew.

    • #30790
      JoMamma
      Member

      i heard ellis was transferring back to west point after this year…anyone know if there is any validity to that statement?

    • #30791
      maverick1
      Member

      @Insight wrote:

      Then you have Ellis or Heyboer. I am not going to bet on Ellis because he could be entered in the 3 events that are the most competitive, 50/100/1fl. He could come out on top of all three just as easily as he could get a 3rd and a pair of 4ths. I can’t vote for that because there is to much incertainty. I am not saying that he won’t win, but it is hard to vote for him at this point.

      how could you see ellis getting a 3rd and a pair of 4ths…..is he going to lose his mind and not swim the 100 back? so i guess you’re trying to say that he could have an easy 1st (100 back-with miaa record most likely) and maybe a pair of 4ths….that sounds more logical although i don’t see him getting 4th in both of his other events

      heyboer winning the 400im, 200im and 200 back could make him a frontrunner for swimmer of the meet…..it will be interesting to see how the coaches vote in terms of national impact. fonzi and ellis will place higher than heyboer in their best events. heyboer will most likely place better in the 2nd best events of the three….and the third event is a toss up because who knows what everyone will be swimming

      my vote will be for whoever ends up with the most impressive swim at miaas in their top event and i see that being fonzi at the moment

    • #30792
      swim5599
      Member

      Heyboer wins it in a lock

    • #30793
      Stevo
      Member

      ok even though this is a discussion every year, i think it’s prett pointless. I would rather talk about top 5 best races at the league meet, or a breakdown of points, or relays than MVP. Whoever has the best meet will win MVP….that’s who wins it every year.

    • #30794
      Stevo
      Member

      and JoMamma, your credibility is overwhelming.

      Your that guy that used to post on Mlive.com in high school on how this swimmer got caught smoking weed, and can’t swim anymore.

    • #30795
      Insight
      Member

      Mav, if you read the part that you quote from me, you’ll notice that I said he could be entered in the 3 most competitive events 50/100/1fl. I didn’t say 1bk. With the events that I listed, it is entirely possible for him to get a 3rd and 2 4ths. To be honest, I think the people that have him in the 50 and 100 are “losing their minds” as you put. Why wouldn’t you put ellis in an event where is guaranteed 2nd (the 2bk) vs. an event like the 100 where he could get beat by jbg, tuuk, ress, cvb, rose, or powers? Or any combination? Or, dare I say, all of them?

      If Ellis were going for the most number of points, I’d say his best line up would be 1fl, 1bk, 200bk…3rd, 1st, 2nd. Instead of 50, 100, 1 bk….?,?, 1st.

    • #30796
      silentp
      Member

      @Insight wrote:

      I am not going to bet on Ellis because he could be entered in the 3 events that are the most competitive, 50/100/1fl. He could come out on top of all three just as easily as he could get a 3rd and a pair of 4ths.

      Actually Insight, Mav was pointing out the fact that you didn’t say the 100 back, because the rest of us believe he will be entered in this event, call it a hunch. You say “in the 3 events”, therefore saying those would be his 3 events, and thus not including the 100 back. With the events you listed it is possible he wouldn’t win them, but he won’t be entered in those 3 because the NCAA at the Division III level restricts entry to 3 events. Instead of defending your stupidity, just say you meant to say something different.

      Also, Ellis still has the fastest time in the 100 fly going in, perhaps that deserves some notice.

    • #30797
      Stevo
      Member

      Also, Ellis still has the fastest time in the 100 fly going in, perhaps that deserves some notice.

      Ellis gets jerked off enough on this forum, we all know he is an amazing swimmer and whatever he swims he will be in contention.

    • #30798
      Stevo
      Member

      wow, you would think i have been on this forum enough to know how to use the quote.

    • #30799
      Insight
      Member

      silentp, isnt that what i was saying? please stop being a douche.

    • #30800
      silentp
      Member

      @Insight wrote:

      silentp, isnt that what i was going?

      I have no idea what you’re saying here.

    • #30801
      maverick1
      Member

      obviously i don’t think that was what you were saying (see my reply) so i’d say that maybe you should start proofreading your posts.

    • #30802
      swim5599
      Member

      What has Ellis been this year in the fly? I saw 55 plus at one meet, but I am sure he has been faster. Anyone know

    • #30803

      It appears as though 55.17 at Alma has been his best time so far this year.

    • #30804

      I believe he was 53 in a dual before Christmas. Carleton perhaps?

    • #30805
      Low Tide
      Member

      If he swam a 53 against Carleton, that is extremely impressive.

      A) Everyone is very tired during that training trip (I’ve never seen a good time from that meet).
      B) It is usually a long course meet.

    • #30806
      silentp
      Member

      @Low Tide wrote:

      If he swam a 53 against Carleton, that is extremely impressive.

      A) Everyone is very tired during that training trip (I’ve never seen a good time from that meet).
      B) It is usually a long course meet.

      I had it confirmed that he did swim a 53 vs Carleton down in Ft. Lauderdale. For the past few years the meet has moved to a short course meet. This year, since Kzoo found a good opponent, they did not do a relay meet. It wasn’t really a great opponent though because the K men were significantly better than the Carleton men and the Carleton women were a lot better than the K women.
      Fonsy also went a 57 in the breast at the meet, those were the only times i recall.

    • #30807
      swim5599
      Member

      57 in the middle of a training trip is pretty darn good. I just saw recently that Alexandrov went 57.0 in the middle of their training trip. So what I am saying is we can probably expect 52.8 out of Soriano at the conf meet. I am clearly kidding, but 57 beat up probably means 55 by the end of the year.

    • #30808
      DonCheadle
      Member

      @swim5599 wrote:

      57 in the middle of a training trip is pretty darn good. I just saw recently that Alexandrov went 57.0 in the middle of their training trip. So what I am saying is we can probably expect 52.8 out of .

      Well Soriano was a 57 mid, so actually he should be around 53.3.

      Insight, I now understand what you were saying, but it was very confusing. Anyhow, I think Ellis wins the 50 and the 100 back, places 2nd in the 2 back, Soriano will win only one event, andHeyboer will win all 3. Thus I give the MVP to Heyboer. Dark horse noone is considering is Rose. Wait, does he have a 3rd event? Well a 20.9 and 45.9 puts him in contention. I doubt Krone will taper.

    • #30809
      swim5599
      Member

      Yeah I could see 20.9 and 45.9 out of Rose. What is his 3rd event going to be? The 200, does he swim fly?

    • #30810
      Tecmo
      Member

      What about rose? I can’t see him being entered in the fly with it being so strong. So more than likely he will go the 200. What if he wins the 50, 100 and finals in the 200. Now of course the be considered both the 50 and 100 times have to be impressive, but to win both those events I would say two impressive times are needed.

      The real question is do we factor in relays. Rose will likely be in 4 relays that all have a shot to win. I say that loosely because of the 4 medley. But then look at that, if Hope wins the 400 MR he will have had to have one of the greatest backend splits in miaa history. Thus, a darkhorse yes, a longshot yes, but if all those things happen, 2 wins in really tough events, a final, and 4 relay wins is that still enough?

    • #30811
      swim5599
      Member

      Probably not enough, but you are right we would need to see 44 plus out of him in the medley for them to have a shot to win it.

    • #30812
      Ricky Bobby
      Member

      What about Rose? If you’re looking for a darkhorse freestyler you should be talking about VanderBroek, not Rose. No disrespect to the freshman but the 50 and 100 are as wide open as any event in the league. VanderBroek has the best shot to actually win the 200 and is every bit as likely to win both the 50 and 100 as Rose is, remember VanderBroek’s best 100 is faster than Rose’s. Same goes for the 50. And VanderBroek knows…if you ain’t first….you’re last.

    • #30813
      Tecmo
      Member

      well i guess the question i really want to ask is relays. Does being on the most winning relays help anyones cause?

    • #30814
      silentp
      Member

      @Tecmo wrote:

      well i guess the question i really want to ask is relays. Does being on the most winning relays help anyones cause?

      I would say no, and typically the MIAA coaches agree. Sprinters are important to the team and obviously valuable, but 1) just being on winning relays doesn’t mean that much and 2) it’s usually not the most valuable, which a sprinter is, but the best swimmer, who wins it. What if Rose is on the winning 200 FR but doesn’t have the fastest split? There are a couple non-Hope swimmers who have shown they may be the fastest in the 50, 1 of which who currently has a faster split, so does that still count? Even if he does, does his 1 tenth he might have the fastest split by really count for much? I’d say no.

      No one outside of Krone, Ellis, Espinosa, or Heyboer have any chance of winning this.

      Also, just finaling really doesn’t mean much, at least to me, when talking about an MVP, that’s most of the discussion for All-MIAA.

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