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I was wondering if we could breakdown what could end up being some very exciting Men’s Relays come MIACs in February? Earlier I predicted a GAC sweep, but the medlies will not be that easy, even if this 58 breastroker exists.
400 MR
back: edge gac by 1
breast: edge olaf by 1
fly: edge olaf by 1
free: evenLooks like olaf for that one, right?
200 MR
back: edge gac by .5
breast: edge olaf by .5
fly: edge olaf by 1
free: edge gac by .5Looks like olaf for that one, but close again…
what does everyone else think? and about the free relays?
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@sharkboy wrote:
The 800 free should be the most exciting at MIACs. Neither relay graduated any swimmers and it was last year’s closest finish.
True, GAC had 2 sophomores and 2 freshmen. Stewart has proven he can go as fast or faster and I don’t see Ben getting any slower. Cuevas had some nice time drops and could continue that. I am unsure what to make of Greg, but believe the new incoming freshman, Davis, could take his spot.
For Olaf, I don’t know as much but if Westby is tapered, you have to think he’ll be just as fast or drop even more time (shoulder depending) and Anderson should be able to drop some time. Evensen can likely expect the same thing.
Both will be under 6:50 but i predict GAC to break Olaf’s 1987 record o 6:47.61… 6:47 in 1987 is smoking fast by the way!
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It isn’t only Davis that could be on that relay, GAC has several other very fast 200 free guys. Remember, that is the event they went 1-2-3-4 in last year. Only two of the guys that swam individually swam on the relay, Amundson and Wakefield were not on it. These two guys are going to be right in there competing for spots on that relay.
Here are their times from last year at conference in finals:
Pokorski – 1:44.67 (split)
Amunsdon – 1:44.42
Wakefield – 1:44.02 -
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Going back to the beginning of this thread:
@SilentP wrote:
400 MR
back: edge gac by 1
breast: edge olaf by 1
fly: edge olaf by 1
free: even200 MR
back: edge gac by .5
breast: edge olaf by .5
fly: edge olaf by 1
free: edge gac by .5How fast of a breaststroker did GAC get to only be a second off Wareham? Wareham split a 56.73 on that relay. It seems to be the general consensus that GAC got a 58 breaststroker (though I find this difficult to believe). Assuming he is a 58 breaststroker, he is more then likely a 58.mid instead of a 58.0 (I call byself a 52 backstroker even though I never went a 52.0) This makes the margin in the breast more like 2 seconds. “So what?” people, might ask… but that additional second has to come from somewhere. No offense to the rest of that relay but trying to cut two seconds friom 4 very fast guys is going to be really tough, already Hagemeyer is being relied on to beat Kukla by a second (which is going to be tougher next year when Kukla is back to full form). I would bet that Amundson is going to be quicker next year, but then again Koch will be too. I could go down the line with the 200 Med as well with very similar results. This leaves Ziegler trying to cut most of that time himself. For him to cut 1 second off his fly would be amazing, but two? I don’t know.
So, to recap my rantings, with the guns that Olaf has on those medley relays, I just can’t reasonably forsee GAC winning either of these two relays.
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I don’t see GAC winning either of the meds either. On the other hand, two years ago nobody could see GAC winning the 800 free relay or any of the distance or mid distance events. I saw a post that talked about Olafs “obcene stranglehold’ on the distance, mid distance and 800 FR. Well, they haven’t won any of those events since then. Anything can happen. It doesn’t take one guy to do it all. If GAC picks up a decent B stroker who drop time in college and everybody else drops aa little…… then you have a race. But it will be tough for the Gustes.
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Yeah. No way no how Gac will even come close to winning the medley relays. But no way no how that Olaf will come close to Gac in the sprint free relays. But the 800 free will be fun. Real fun to watch. My guess is that Gac touches out Olaf again. But it could be the other way. Either way it is going to be a touch out in that race
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@Procrastinator wrote:
Yeah. No way no how Gac will even come close to winning the medley relays. But no way no how that Olaf will come close to Gac in the sprint free relays. But the 800 free will be fun. Real fun to watch. My guess is that Gac touches out Olaf again. But it could be the other way. Either way it is going to be a touch out in that race
I will predict the difference will be at least 2 seconds in one direction. Any takers?
I will also predict GAC either wins the 2MR or gets very close.
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I might take that. Please specify which direction you’re going. And Please specify “close”. It’s only 200 yards. It SHOULD be close. Also, what do you feel the difference makers will be? As I have said before, I don’t think you will see much of a change in event winners or meet outcome UNLESS there is a major change in a teams strategy, training or goals.
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First I’d like to know this breastroker is more than a rumor. Then we can make this wager for some beer (assuming you’re of age, which I assume you are). Here is my thought and something for everyone to consider about the 200 MR: Last year the race was within a second, and that had Ben Hanson, GAC’s stud D swimmer, swimming breastroke on the relay… he split a 27-mid, even this 1:00 breastroker they got should outsplit that AND, althought amundsen did split a 19.89, Koch split an amazing and overlooked 20.01… he may do it again, but i’ll take my bet on amundsen in his senior year doing it again or faster as a better shot than koch.
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800 FR makes me think of 2 things:
1. Wesby may not swim this relay this year, in order to take full advantage of Koch, they could put him on the 400 FR.
2. No offense whatsoever to Greg, but I don’t see GAC putting someone who will split 1:44 on the relay this year because I believe someone (perhaps this freshman D swimmer) will have a B cut but be borderline for making the meet, and he will put him on it to make sure he goes to NCAAs. Either that, or he will just go for it (with how fast the 800 FR will be this year, very possibly sub 6:50) and put someone who is a bit faster already, like a Wakefield, on the relay.
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I’m a few posts back but I apologize. To Backstroker02… part of the reason why it is more feasible that the 1 second gap predicted on the breaststroke leg (if the recruit is a 58) is because, unlike the backstroke leg, he’ll have a relay pickup to go off of. Take your 58.? and subtract .6 and it’s a lot closer to the gap silentp or whoever predicted. Not to mention, a lot of people experience a sizeable drop their freshman year. So while 56.7 is still outta control fast, it’s not as daunting of a split to have to overcome.
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