MIAC Men Bubble Watch

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    • #12362
      lirpa
      Member

      OK, We know for certain the top of the top guys are in.

      Here are who I think are on the bubble:

      Olaf- Their 800 free relay could bring Bentley and Anderson. Anderson looks doubtful in his individuals.

      GAC- I think the 200 medley relay is safe for Mikkelson, but what about the 800 with Cuevas? Seems like a lock to me.

      Individuals from elsewhere: Obviously Marshall, but nobody else from Carleton, even though Friedlander-Holm had a fast 100 TT. St John’s guys look doubtful, including Larson. Tapia, 12 in 200 fly, will that go? Anybody I overlooked?

    • #35539
      silentp
      Member

      @lirpa wrote:

      Olaf- Their 800 free relay could bring Bentley and Anderson. Anderson looks doubtful in his individuals.

      Typically, 10 relays are taken, but it obviously comes down to numbers. Right now, with 1 weekend to go, Olaf is 9th. They will 90% likely fall behind Williams, but who else?

      NEWMAC psyche sheets aren’t up, but look for the Coast Guard and Springfield to come close. The NESCAC doesn’t seem to have anyone other than Williams who will be under 6:52, but there are always surprises in this meet. The great thing about this relay is that it is rare to time trial or even last chance it and get in.

      I say they are 75/25 in.

      @lirpa wrote:

      GAC- I think the 200 medley relay is safe for Mikkelson, but what about the 800 with Cuevas? Seems like a lock to me.

      The 800 is 100% safe, so Cuevas can get ready for Houston. The 200 MR is 7th right now, but could be the last team in with Williams, MIT and Middlebury all coming in fast. If a team like Amherst gets hot, they could be in trouble.

      I put the 200 MR at 85/15 in.

      @lirpa wrote:

      Individuals from elsewhere: Obviously Marshall, but nobody else from Carleton, even though Friedlander-Holm had a fast 100 TT. St John’s guys look doubtful, including Larson. Tapia, 12 in 200 fly, will that go? Anybody I overlooked?

      St. Jons guys are out unfortunately.

      Tapia, 200 fly, has a good shot, but he’s not 100% safe. The NESCAC has 4 guys right away that jump out, Millen, Collier, Scott and Treat. This puts him at 16th. That means only a couple of other people could jump in front of him and still keep him in. Don’t count out a guy or 2 from the NEWMAC getting in, perhaps a freshman from MIT, and also don’t sleep on the rest of the NESCAC. Remember, NESCAC schools don’t taper or rest midseason like most other teams, so the fact that 11 guys on the psyche sheet have been under 2, is impressive.

      I’d say he’s 60/40 in.

    • #35540
      lirpa
      Member

      Update:

      Here are some guesses on National Participants

      GAC: Stewart, Davis, Hagemeyer, Amundson, Ziegler, Hanson, and Cuevas Mikkelson Winter relay only. 400 MR is way down, so no Waylander. 9 guys total

      OLAF: Meyer, Wareham, Westby, Koch, Kukla, and Diver(probably). 800 free relay is 11th for Bentley and Anderson. Anderson’s 500 is 22nd, so this is his best chance.

      6 guys total, 8 with a little luck?

      Carleton: Marshall
      Hamline: Tapia is 17th in 200 fly 21st in 100 fly. 200 will probably make it. This was done with not a lot of research, am I missing anyone, any extra divers or anything? Silent P, how would you place the odds on the question marks now?

    • #35541
      silentp
      Member

      Tapia is in, 100%.

      Napoleon went through and added people to the meet, based on the rules in the rulebook, and he says the 800 FR is in for Olaf (all line 11 relays go). I believe him, because usually they only take 10 because much more so than girls, guys have a lot of relay only swimmers. Last year, however, relay times were very fast, especially the 400 FR, so it appeared to make coaches nervous and they no longer risked adding guys to the team by filling them in on relays, but using their best guys. This means an additional relay should be able to be taken and Olaf is in. You never know though, but hopefully they make it.

    • #35542

      @lirpa wrote:

      any extra divers or anything?

      From what I know: Lorentzen of StO is in, undoubtedly. Blaise of StO and Knapp of Carleton each had qualifying scores–whether they get in is a little bit on the bubble.

    • #35543
      SeekUp
      Member

      I talked to Christian and he thinks Knapp is a good enough diver to qualify but that it is up to the judges to review the tape that he sent in and apparently the tape does not do him justice. So we’ll see.

    • #35544
      Kari Byron
      Member

      The entries list comes out tomorrow and the official cut list comes out Thursday, correct?

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