MIAC 07

@silentp wrote:

W 100breast: GAC freshman

I am pretty sure Carleton has a 105 or 106 freshman girl this year

I noticed you picked Stewart to win the 200 this year while he didnt swim it this past year. Since GAC does have so many 200 freestylers (they placed 1,2,3,4 last year), why do you think Stewart will swim it when they have a sure win with Hanson. Hanson cant really swim much else besides freestyle while Stewart is competitive in a lot of event. I think that they will not swim Stewart in that event, and have him try to place high in a different event, like the 100fly or something. Sure he may not win it, but placing 1,2,3,4 in the 200 and 2,3 in the 100 fly is more points then placing 1,2,3,4,5 in the 200 and 2 in the 100 fly.

I believe Hanson has gone 52 in 100 fly nd 1:53 200 fly. That was in high school. He’s also been 1:01 100 breast (not world class, But not shabby either for someone who trains distance free.)and swam it on GAC’s relays last year. So, to say he can’t swim anything besides freestyle isn’t accurate. Carlson has alot of options. With his ability to handle distance, Hanson could threaten in the 400 IM. But, the distance free are his events and it would be tough to take him out of them. Stewart can also swim Fly and Free. His Breast is suspect. I would think he could be a decent backstroker though. Cuevas can also swim multiple events. He could train IM this year and make an impact. With the new Freshman distance specialist I caught wind of, GAC will be tough in those events. On the other hand it looks like Olaf is stocking up on sprinters. If they can steal a Free relay along with the Med’s they already own. We could see a changing of the guard. But probably not this year.

it’s pretty obvious that the MIAC meet is very important to Olaf and GAC, but after a terrible nationals meet will they change anything for next year?

marschall winning the 200IM….does anybody else remember westby crushing the consol heat at nats and going 1:51.42?—i’d take westby

@maverick wrote:

it’s pretty obvious that the MIAC meet is very important to Olaf and GAC, but after a terrible nationals meet will they change anything for next year?

marschall winning the 200IM….does anybody else remember westby crushing the consol heat at nats and going 1:51.42?—i’d take westby

I agree Mav, provided Westby gets in solid training. See my other post in another forum about his shoulders.

Here are my picks:

M 200 FR: GAC

M 500: Hanson

M 200IM: Westby

M 50: Hagemeyer

M 400 MR: Olaf

M 200 MR: Olaf

M 400IM: Marschall

M 100fly: Ziegler

M 200free: Hanson

M 100breast: Westby

M 100back: Hagemeyer

M 800 FR: GAC

M 1650: Hanson

M 200back: Waylander

M 100 free: Hagemeyer

M 200breast: Wareham

M 200fly: Ziegler

M 400 FR: GAC

M Swimmer of the Meet: Hagemeyer, Hanson, Westby, and Amundson all have shots

200 FR GAC

500 Free Hanson (Will anyone else go under 4:30 this year?)

200 IM Westby (Watch out for Ted)

50 Free Hagemeyer (To big and to strong at this distance)

400 MR Olaf

200 MR Olaf

400 IM Marschall (Not even close)

100 Fly Westby

200 Free Hanson

100 Breast Westby

100 Back Larson (He took Hagemeyer down last year. This year he’ll beat him by more)

800 FR GAC

1650 Free Hanson (To experienced and confident. He owns this one.)

200 Back Meyer

100 Free Koch (Hungrier than Hagemeyer, faster than Amundson. Repeats.)

200 Breast Marschall (Passes on the mile to win this event,)

200 Fly Ziegler (He wanted this one to bad to give it up.)

400 FR GAC

SOTM Westby or Hanson. If they both win 3, Westby has the advantage as Hanson has won twice in a row. But Hanson could set 3 records.

I will put my two cents in.

200 FR GAC- no other team has the sprint depth of Gustavus. No one graduates from GAC record relay from last year and they may have gotten a freshman to make them even faster.

500 Free Hanson- Stewart might improve enough to push him, but its still Hanson’s. This May be the race of the Meet. It looks as if as many as 5 swimmers (not including any freshman) have a chance to go under 4:40.

200 IM – Marschall- If it is true about Westby having bad shoulders, his training can suffer and you need to be in top shape for this event. I believe I saw Marshall swimming this summer. This is his to lose.

50 Free Koch- The real surprise here won’t be Amundson taking second, it will be Hagemeyer third. Hagemeyer is still quick, but Koch and Amundson both look to have more of a top level right now, but watch out for Hagemeyer to prove me wrong. Look for 3 swimmers under 21.00, Maybe a fourth trying to break that barrier.

400 MR Olaf- This is their event, Kula or not, there breast and fly is stronger then GAC and despite the rumor of a good Breastroker I have no reason to think GAC improves enough to catch them. Olaf’s freestlyer is just as fast and won the hundred last year. Amundson is the best anchor guy in the conference, but he maybe just a little too far out to catch Koch.

200 MR Gustavus- My upset special. This all depends in Gustavus has said Breastroker. Gustavus is the best sprint team in the conference and one of the best in all of D3. They will be ready to go. Hagemeyer will be upset about his 3rd place finish in the 50 and will take it out on all the other Backstrokers and put Gustavus to a dominate lead in which their second and third leg will hold and no one will catch Amundson.

400 IM Marschall- May eventually make a claim as the best 400 IMer in conference History. Sub 4:00 will bring a site to see. By senior year, maybe able to break Hauck’s record, Maybe!

100 Fly Westby- Bad shoulders or not, he should be able to train enough to keep his times he produced at Nationals. I see improvement out of Stewart and Ziegler, but not enough to catch him.

200 Free Hanson- Stewart could challenge, but he will go the 100 fly.

100 Breast Wareham. I had a coin flip between him and Westby, but I have to go with the defending Champ.

100 Back Larson- Look for good things from him. If Hagemeyer can get his form back from freshman year it is his, but Larson looks to improve on his winning time from last year.

800 FR GAC- Olaf swam an amazing race last year to make this a great one, look for them to do it again, but Gustavus to do it out again. Two Sub 6:50’s will be exciting.

1650 Free Hanson- Marschall could not keep with Hanson last year. No one stays with Hanson.

200 Back Meyer- This maybe the most up in the air race. Look for Waylander to make a run, but like the 100 breast, I have to go with the top returner. Larson has the speed, but it does not appear that he has the gas tank to win this one.

100 Free Koch – Another great race. No more then .2 separates the Big three.

200 Breast – Wareham- Marschall may swim it, but I still think it will be Wareham.

200 Fly Ziegler- This is his race, Tapia will be solid with Stewart, but they will battle it out for second. Ziegler swam the summer with the U of M and from what I understand loves to work out. No one catches him, loves it to much. Gutsy racer.

400 FR GAC – No one has been close for the past Couple of years, and no one will be close this year.

Hanson should repeat as he betters his times from Last Year. But look out for a new face to win it if they take three events, even if they are not up to the same Caliber swims as Hanson, as some coaches may try to find a reason not to vote for Hanson. If he goes under 4:30 in the 500, it is his hands down.

Don’t worry silentp, you aren’t missing anything. Kukla was indeed a junior last year. I wont list all my picks because I really dont have much else to add. However, I believe that Kukla will be the one to beat this year in the 200 back. This past season he missed all of Janurary (I think he was performing in the band). If he stays around for the whole season, look for him to go around a 1:52. mid (what he went his sophomore year). No one else was even close to that fast this past year, so I think Kukla is a safe choice for the 2007 200 Back Champion.

@It’s all an act wrote:

100 Free Koch – Another great race. No more then .2 separates the Big three.

By the ‘Big Three’ I’m assuming that you’re referring to Hagemeyer, Amundson, and Koch? All very tall guys.

@The15mMark wrote:

@It’s all an act wrote:

100 Free Koch – Another great race. No more then .2 separates the Big three.

By the ‘Big Three’ I’m assuming that you’re referring to Hagemeyer, Amundson, and Koch? All very tall guys.

ill take the over on .2 separating the “big three”.

kukla missing a month because he was playing in “the band”? thats moronic. do one or the other, not half of both.

The thing that will hurt the Gusties a lot this year is not having a contender for diving. Their number one diver (Hawkinson) transfered to the U over the summer. Knowing the Carlson, he didn’t recruit any divers this year, and I can almost guarentee that there will not be another diver to take his spot. He placed 6th and 4th in the 1 and 3 meter respectively (though he dove poorly in finals for the 1 meter). This is a lot points that the Gusties cannot make up.

Hey silentp,
I’m just catching up here, reading your 07 predictions.
Why do you pick Kristin Mathson to win the 500 free and the 400 IM? There are other returning swimmers who finished ahead of her in 06. If you have reason to believe she will step it up a notch to win these events, why don’t you also pick her to win the 200 back? Just wondering….
Also, is there really a GAC freshman breaststroker for the women, or is this just wishful thinking?

Pretty sure GAC breaststroker is Sarah Koepp

1:07.5/2:25

Word through the grapevine is that Gustavus had their preseason meeting earlier this week. Apparently there are like 26 new people who are thinking about going out for the team this year. This includes both guys and girls, transfers and freshmen. My prediction is that a lot of these people are not going to end up on the team because the practices are too tough or they don’t want to devote the time and effort required. Still having that many new people means that they might be able to fill a couple holes at the tail end of their roster. Depth never hurt anyone.

Maybe there are a few divers in that group. Just get someone to learn a few dives and Gustavus gains some free points.

Go St. Mary’s!
2006-2007 women’s roster for St. Mary’s has Hannah Szerlong (transfer from Loras College), not a superstar, but a strong versatile swimmer.
100 breast 1:09
200 IM 2:16
400 IM 4:49
500 free 5:20
1650 18:18
…..not bad!

SMU picked up a freshman who, based on last years times and losing seniors, will place 3rd with a 1:00.92 in his 100 BR, that’s a good recruit by any MIAC schools standards.

you guys dont seem to think that the freshman are going to do much this year

So after this last weekend does anyone want to change their predictions for conference? What team is going to win? Who is going to win what event?

It seemed evident from the Carthage invite that GAC has the advantage when it comes to an invite meet format. Both teams had good swims, but Olaf’s studs came in swimming extremely fast, many of them swimming their lifetime bests. I would put money that Olaf tapered for this meet, and not the 3 day drop that GAC does. GAC also had some fast swims, Davis is particular, but just not to the extent Olaf did. GAC also was missing Hagemeyer at Carthage. Even though Hagemeyer is not at the form he used to be at, he still can be depended on to place fairly well.
Therefore, I will stay with my prediction that GAC will pull out the conference win. However, it will be very close. Take out Carthage and St. Cloud from this meet, and I think you will find Olaf’s lower guys moving up more then GAC’s lower guys. My prediction is that this is going to be the closest, and most exciting conference meet since GAC first won back in 2000.

Here are my post-carthage picks:

M 200 FR: GAC

M 500: Hanson

M 200IM: Westby

M 50: Koch

M 400 MR: Olaf

M 200 MR: Olaf

M 400IM: Marschall

M 100fly: Westby

M 200free: Hanson

M 100breast: Westby

M 100back: Meyer

M 800 FR: GAC

M 1650: Hanson

M 200back: Kukla

M 100 free: Koch

M 200breast: Marschall

M 200fly: Stewart

M 400 FR: GAC

Ridiculous. Skylar Davis will beat Ted Marshall and Ben Hanson by about 50 seconds in the 1650. Skylar Davis wins both the 400 IM and 1650 Free. Though, he will only win the 400 IM by 15 seconds.

@iknowall wrote:

Here are my post-carthage picks:

M 200 FR: GAC

M 500: Hanson

M 200IM: Westby

M 50: Koch

M 400 MR: Olaf

M 200 MR: Olaf

M 400IM: Marschall

M 100fly: Westby

M 200free: Hanson

M 100breast: Westby

M 100back: Meyer

M 800 FR: GAC

M 1650: Hanson

M 200back: Kukla

M 100 free: Koch

M 200breast: Marschall

M 200fly: Stewart

M 400 FR: GAC

@Mac of the MIAC wrote:

Ridiculous. Skylar Davis will beat Ted Marshall and Ben Hanson by about 50 seconds in the 1650. Skylar Davis wins both the 400 IM and 1650 Free. Though, he will only win the 400 IM by 15 seconds.

I think not…

Sky-Dave is the Forrest Gump of swimming. He gets better the longer the swim is. I heard he trains 15,000 yards a practice… and that’s after hitting the weights. Then he shoots free-throws after practice to keep his dexterity.

Marschall will probably taper well, and who knows how rested Sky-Dave was for Carthage. But I could see both of them going sub 4 minutes, and Sky-Dave winning due to Marschall being tired from the 200 Med relay.

As for the mile, Sky-Dave basically lapped Hanson at Carthage. How could he not be the favorite to win the 1650? They should invent a 3300 for him so that he could win the Olympics at it.

Then again, maybe Sky-Dave doesn’t taper for the MIAC and decides to win the mile at Nationals.

If there were a 3300 in the Olympics, Skylar Davis would dominate it. But he will just have to be satisfied lapping the competition once or twice in this years 1650.

@Chapel Partner wrote:

Sky-Dave is the Forrest Gump of swimming. He gets better the longer the swim is. I heard he trains 15,000 yards a practice… and that’s after hitting the weights. Then he shoots free-throws after practice to keep his dexterity.

Marschall will probably taper well, and who knows how rested Sky-Dave was for Carthage. But I could see both of them going sub 4 minutes, and Sky-Dave winning due to Marschall being tired from the 200 Med relay.

As for the mile, Sky-Dave basically lapped Hanson at Carthage. How could he not be the favorite to win the 1650? They should invent a 3300 for him so that he could win the Olympics at it.

Then again, maybe Sky-Dave doesn’t taper for the MIAC and decides to win the mile at Nationals.

I hear that Assistant to the Head Coach Andy Hagen has given Sky-Dave a new nickname, JYD v2.0. It’s an homage to the original Junk Yard Dog, Matt Christianson (greatest distance swimmer in GAC history, sorry G-Dubbs), and a clever play on computer programming language. Hagen is a comedic genius. Apparently no matter how bad they beat on v2.0 he just keeps coming back for more. This guy is going to uber-pwn the 1650 at MIAC’s, and rule the imaginary 3300 in my dreams.

Any predictions on how he’ll fare at Nats? Only 1 of the 24 guys who swam it last year graduated. However, he does have the best time in the conference by almost 43 seconds, and almost 47 seconds over last years 8th place finisher at Nats.

The mile is a fickle event.

While Skylar Davis has had many impressive swims this year, I don’t think you can compare in-season times in a race as long as the mile and accurately predict what will happen at the end of the season against the competition (who may be training in a different way and have a bigger or smaller time drop).
As far as the Olaf studs go, I think that they will still rest up quite a bit for Conference. Seeing as they beat GAC in the dual, they may want to go for the win at the Conf level and break GAC’s current streak. Westby, on the other hand, will probably do the same as last year and focus in on the National meet.

@EnThralled wrote:

While Skylar Davis has had many impressive swims this year, I don’t think you can compare in-season times in a race as long as the mile and accurately predict what will happen at the end of the season against the competition (who may be training in a different way and have a bigger or smaller time drop).

I think that it might be safe to assume that Skylar will have very impressive swims during his taper as well. I would be surprised if he doesn’t make an impact at the national level this season.

@EnThralled wrote:

As far as the Olaf studs go, I think that they will still rest up quite a bit for Conference. Seeing as they beat GAC in the dual, they may want to go for the win at the Conf level and break GAC’s current streak. Westby, on the other hand, will probably do the same as last year and focus in on the National meet.

Olaf did beat GAC in the dual this year, but GAC beat Olaf at Carthage. Since the meet format that more closely resembles Conference is Carthage, and Olaf lost there, I think that they have no choice but to do a full taper and shave for Conferences if they’re going to beat GAC. I don’t know the goals of either team for sure…. But without either of them being a shoe-in for top 5 at NCAAs, I’ve got to believe that both coaches have the same goal: WIN CONFERENCE. With that said, I would doubt that Westby would abstain from a team taper to perform at Nattys. Doing a solo taper would be, in my mind, just too difficult. Bet then again, he’s one hell of a swimmer.

i agree that gac can beat olaf at conference with olaf not concentrating on conference as a team…. i think that olaf will not taper westby, kukla, koch, etc.. completely for conference…i think that their best chance to making a big splash will be at nationals with westby getting top 4 in his 3 events….which spells good news for the gusties at conference…what do the rest of you think??

@littleswimmerguy wrote:

i agree that gac can beat olaf at conference with olaf not concentrating on conference as a team…. i think that olaf will not taper westby, kukla, koch, etc.. completely for conference…i think that their best chance to making a big splash will be at nationals with westby getting top 4 in his 3 events….which spells good news for the gusties at conference…what do the rest of you think??

Not tapering those guys leaves a lot of room for GACs rival top 8 swimmers to move up in a fair number of events…. I don’t see the Hauck’s handing it to Jon on a year that should be theirs for the taking.

I don’t think it would make much of a difference at all. Its not like Westby or Koch not fully tapering is going to knock them out of the top 8. If they don’t fully taper, its because they are good enough to not have to. Westby will still win all of his events, and Koch goes from a shot at winning the 50, to third or fourth at the lowest, and really, the top 4 spots in that race are wide open anyway. Their relays will be a touch slower, but I don’t think it would change their place. They will dominate the medley’s either way, and probably finish right behind GAC in the free relays. If some of them don’t taper, my highly unscientific reasoning says they won’t lose more than 10-20 points. It will be a close meet, but I don’t think this will be the difference maker. And who knows if Hanson and Sky-D will taper all the way either. And yes, I’m writting this from my parents house on Christmas. Scoreboard.

Are Koch’s times in the 50 and 100 B cuts? I don’t think they are low enough to make nats on their own (could be wrong, I don’t know). I’d think the Med relays get in regardless of whether Koch and/or Westby fully Taper, but I’d think Koch tapers in hopes of maybe getting the free relays there (to get more guys to the meet).

I doubt Westby will taper… if he’s back from Europe for the meet.

@Chapel Partner wrote:

Are Koch’s times in the 50 and 100 B cuts? I don’t think they are low enough to make nats on their own (could be wrong, I don’t know).

His 50 won’t make it right now. He’d be taking a chance on the 100.

@Chapel Partner wrote:

Are Koch’s times in the 50 and 100 B cuts? I don’t think they are low enough to make nats on their own (could be wrong, I don’t know). I’d think the Med relays get in regardless of whether Koch and/or Westby fully Taper, but I’d think Koch tapers in hopes of maybe getting the free relays there (to get more guys to the meet).

I doubt Westby will taper… if he’s back from Europe for the meet.

what meet in europe? did i miss something? are you allowed to swim in meets not for your college during your college season?

I don’t think Westby is swimming there he is just going to be there for foreign quarter.

@swim5599 wrote:

I don’t think Westby is swimming there he is just going to be there for foreign quarter.

I would imagine that he’ll do everything he can to get some pool time though. As a key player on Olaf’s team and a real threat at the national level, I doubt he can afford to take a month off especially during January when the training is most crucial.