MIAA National Champs

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    • #11913
      silentp
      Member

      Top Contenders:
      Alfonso Espinosa – His chances in the 100 breast are a bit unknown since his experience as a yards swimmer is limited. He is under the National Cut for LCM and with his height, most believe he can be a dominate yards swimmer.
      Odds = 5-1

      Paul Ellis – He comes in only a couple tenth off of last year’s fastest returning backstroker. High school times can now be compared because of the loss of the stand up start, but his lack of “big meet” experience could haunt him here.
      Odds = 8-1

      Lisa Smith – Hope’s dominant short distance butterflyer should continue to see improved over the 100 yard distance. Big recruits named (Recruits section) already have seen 2 flyer come in with very very fast times, but will they pan out in college. Lisa has proven she has, but has yet to get over the hump and win it.
      Odds = 8-1

      Kurt Blohm – The biggest uncertainty at this point is whether or not he will swim. If he does, the fact that he swims the 50 makes him a longer shot, just due to the nature of the event. His MIAA record times the past couple of seasons has been impressive, but NCAAs hasn’t been as successful. It could easily change in his final campaign however.
      Odds = 16-1

    • #29806
      maverick1
      Member

      weima-already won 4 national titles

      odds: .5-1

    • #29807
      silentp
      Member

      @maverick wrote:

      weima-already won 4 national titles

      odds: .5-1

      Ah crap, i knew i forgot someone. Yes, she’ll win, how about we change it to someone else? My bad!

    • #29808
      miller
      Member

      @maverick wrote:

      weima-already won 4 national titles

      odds: .5-1

      I’ll take those odds!

      All bets are on Weima kicking my arse at the Reeds Lake Tri again this year as well.

    • #29809
      Glass Joe
      Member

      P,

      With your predicted odds (without Weima), the collective probability that one of your swimmers will win their event is less than 50%. So, I vote no.

      And Blohm is not swimming next year so it’s even less.

    • #29810
      Derek
      Member

      Being cynical, I am going with nobody (except Weima) will win. Why? I don’t think that Blohm can do it due to the nature of the 50 and also past performance at nationals. (Blohm, if you read this, please swim and prove me wrong, I would love to see your success for you and the MIAA.) I don’t really think that Lisa Smith will win. I don’t have a good reason for that and it can probably be chalked up more to my ignorance about her.

      As for the freshmen. Freshman = no titles this year, but from the incoming freshmen class, the number of potential national titles is huge. The number of titles by freshmen last year nationwide (men and women)? One, by Eric Dunn. If you include the previous year (2005), the total goes up to 7. those championships were won by four additional freshmen: Andrew Cox, Kaitlyn Orstein (2), Brittany Sasser (2), and Marika Ross. Of those, if you look at the current record books, Brittany Sasser is current record holder in both backstrokes, and Kaitlyn Orsein is 2nd and 3rd all time in the 200 and 400ims, Marika Ross is 3rd ever in the 200 fly, Eric Dunn is 3rd ever in the 1650, and Cox is 10th ever in the 50 free. Clearly, all of these have made themselves among the best ever in d3, and with the exception of Cox, top 3. Are these freshmen that good? Well, time will tell, and I sure hope so, but I don’t think that you can say that yet. Dunn didn’t prove himself until nationals. We just might have to wait that long before I think we can truly give one of these freshmen a title.

      This is me being cynical and playing devil’s advocate… I really want to see the MIAA take a title (or two or three or so)!

    • #29811
      silentp
      Member

      @Glass Joe wrote:

      P,

      With your predicted odds (without Weima), the collective probability that one of your swimmers will win their event is less than 50%. So, I vote no.

      And Blohm is not swimming next year so it’s even less.

      I am glad you have taken my odds to this great an extent to base your decision on, thank you.

      To have some fun, i will rebuttal most of Derek’s points with a single idea: this year will be slower for D3. I honestly believe the last few years have been the best of D3. I am not saying they can’t continue, but this year will be a lull. Times to get into NCAAs will be slower in over half of the events and at least 3 out of 5 relays. This is why the last couple years cannot be looked at for winners, those men were going against some amazing veterans of D3. let’s have a look at the 2 men’s events in which MIAA freshmen are in question:

      100 breast: almost the same crap shoot as the 50 free. It seems every year the same time wins it, but someone else does it. The smart money is on Zarins, but he didn’t even final last year. This event is deep, but doesn’t have a true stud who you know is going to win. This makes it exciting an also opens the door for a freshman to come in.

      100back: the past fewyears have been dominated by Cunningham, so no one came in with a shot to win. Also, since 1999, the winner has always gone under 50, but this year the closest person is still half of a second off of that. Someone has to drop the time, so why not the kid who hasn’t fully developed as a swimmer and is bursting with potential.

    • #29812
      Derek
      Member

      Silentp,

      Your argument is much stronger than mine because it includes specific event analysis. All the same, I’ll remain skeptical until it happens just because I want to set myself up to be surprised. 🙂

    • #29813
      swim5599
      Member

      Not knocking this conf at all but I think Weima is probably the only one that wins an event this year. I am not saying that kid breaststroker would not have a shot, but I have to think Zarins is going to be primed to make up for a rather lousy effort at nats this past year. And if Zarins is on he is by far the best breaststroker in D 3

    • #29814

      P,

      Do you remember when you said this…

      @silentp wrote:

      I will preduct that niether Heyboer or the Fonz will have the best finish at NCAAs next season.

      and

      @silentp wrote:

      Krone baby!

      I guess your perspective changes when you have 2 stud recruits on the way.

      I really posted this to point out that you spelled neither incorrectly in the first post quoted. Please work on your spelling.

      Love,
      Billy

    • #29815
      silentp
      Member

      @Billy Gilmore wrote:

      I really posted this to point out that you spelled neither incorrectly in the first post quoted.

      I also spelled predict incorrectly. But insightful post…

      I am not saying the Fonzi will win, I’m saying there’s a chance, same with Ellis. Plus, having 1 stud to swim basically on his own is different than 2 who can train together.

      Krone also has no shot to win, about the same shot as Heyboer, which I would put at about 50-1. He could still be the highest finisher though, but that event has a stud.

    • #29816
      The Treat
      Member

      @silentp wrote:

      The smart money is on Zarins, but he didn’t even final last year. This event is deep, but doesn’t have a true stud who you know is going to win.

      i would say the smart money is NOT on zarins. im sorry, but i have been thoroughly unimpressed by him. yes he has a chance to win it, but as we have seen, he has a chance to fall flat on his face again. he has to have some serious mental issues at big meets.

      this is a bit of speculation, but maybe having gosselar on his team has had a negative effect on him. he’s never sure of whether he’s going to have a spot on the relay so he’s worrying about all the wrong things.

    • #29817
      Alterego
      Member

      Treat,

      Zarins IS a for sure thing to be on all of Kenyon’s medleys because Gosselar doesn’t want those spots; even when he’s swimming faster. It’s weird, I know.

    • #29818
      silentp
      Member

      @Alterego wrote:

      Treat,

      Zarins IS a for sure thing to be on all of Kenyon’s medleys because Gosselar doesn’t want those spots; even when he’s swimming faster. It’s weird, I know.

      Sounds like a real team player… I picked Zarins because he has the fastest times and it will be his senior year, thats it. I don’t think he steps up when it matters and basically can’t taper properly… which we all know is not at the fault of his coaching staff.

    • #29819
      DonCheadle
      Member

      This is for the older guys,

      remember David Phillips from Kenyon? He won the Mile as a freshmen, then for the next 2 years he swam poorly at the meet. Senior year, he got it together and won again.

    • #29820
      Psimon3
      Member

      @DonCheadle wrote:

      This is for the older guys,

      remember David Phillips from Kenyon? He won the Mile as a freshmen, then for the next 2 years he swam poorly at the meet. Senior year, he got it together and won again.

      I swam with and against Dave all through high school and college. Even then he had trouble staying healthy. If I remember correctly he had mono during his sophmore year at NCAA’s and some kind of viral infection his Junior. Didn’t help that Torsten Seifert was a pretty good miler those “off years” for Dave. I’m glad he pulled it out his Senior though.

    • #29821
      swim5599
      Member

      No Zarins is a bit of a head case no question. His sophmore year he was dynamite, so I have a feeling if his head is in the right place we could see 55 mid to low and 2:00 again. If not he might not even make the consolation final. That being said he is the class of the field when he is on.

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