MIAA at NCAAs

That is a good question. I see Kalamazoo qualifying their 200 medley, one would have to think that they would be close in the 4 med, and we all know they will have 2 individuals swimming, with Dekker having a chance.

Hope has a chance of qualifying more relays and they have a few guys capable of at least b cuts on top of the big stud Heyboer so I would say Hope would score more points, but what the hell do I know.

Kzoo is my answer. Both Ellis and Espinosa have ligitimate shots at a national championship and Kzoo’s hotshot relay will make bigs…

Heyboer’s events, whatever they end up being, seem a little more competative. I see his best event as the 400 IM and I am not sure he will be able to pull off a top 3 in that event unless he pulls something out of his ass which is entirely possible but not likely. If he swims the 2 back he is not going to beat the kid from Denison. He could swim about 4 other events and possibly make the top eight but I don’t think it’s enough to reconcile the individual point difference between him and Kzoo’s guys.

Hope’s relays make consuls at best. They will have a really tough time keeping up pointwise if both of Kzoo’s Medleys make the top eight.

What if Kzoo places third at leagues and manages to place higher than Olivet and Hope at NCAA’s? I am pretty sure that has never happened. It could potentially make SI’s “Signs of the Apocalypse.”

I think Hope’s relays will place higher than expected, but the strength of Kzoo’s medly is unquestionable. I’m not going to venture any guesses as to where exactly it places. Individually from Hope, Heyboer can certainly be counted on for something, and it’s your pick of the other studs – I think it will be hard for most of them to final in anything, but there is an outside chance.
Kzoo has a lot of indie points, but one question. Is Espinsa expected to beat Joey? It seems to me that that would be a pretty big step up for him, but I guess I don’t really know.

@Captain Insano wrote:

What if Kzoo places third at leagues and manages to place higher than Olivet and Hope at NCAA’s? I am pretty sure that has never happened. It could potentially make SI’s “Signs of the Apocalypse.”

very well could happen. two years ago wash u men place 4th at conference and 8th at nationals.

Hope has beaten K at NCAA’s when losing at MIAA’s by a lot…there has never really been a close 3rd place team at MIAA’s in the past. This may be the first year in a very long time that the league has seen three fairly evenly matched teams at the MIAA stage.

@vazzy vazquez wrote:

This may be the first year in a very long time that the league has seen three fairly evenly matched teams at the MIAA stage.

Did vazzy just make a comment that was not inflammatory and was an actual representation of common perceptions? I don’t believe it! (Vazzy, I really would expect something more along the lines of “except for Hope being so much superior” at the end of that, but I was wrong! Where is the old you?!)

I don’t think it’s a done deal that K beats Hope at nats. Right now looking at national standings it is logical to think that though. But Hope has the possibility of scoring all 5 relays in the top 12. While K could potentially win the 200 medley, they also run the risk of not finaling the 400 medley. Both of their star freshman will score high in one event but haven’t proven they will pick up many more points individually. While Hope won’t pick up as many points at a time, they could nickel and dime their way ahead of K scoring in at least 8 events, 5 of which are relays. Not to mention they appear to be well ahead of last year. It should be interesting.

Hope needs to get a medley relay there or they are not going to have a breaststroker. 400 medley:

Heyboer: 51.8
King: 59.0
Flyer: 50.5
Rose: 45.0
Total: 3:26.3

Does that make it? I doubt it. And while all of those swims are possible, I don’t know if they will happen at the same time.

I really don’t know about Heyboer’s 400 IM. 4:05.9 could equate to 3:59 at the end of the year. But other than that, isn’t he a consol swimmer in whatever events he does after that? While he could score consol in 5 events I am not so sure that really matters (Well, actually it is awesome, but it won’t score points). Here are my projected top 8 times for his other events:
500 Free: 4:31.9
200 IM: 1:52.2
100 back: 51.0
200 back: 1:51.0

Is it most likely that he will be above the top 8 line on those 4 events?

Will Rose score in the 100? I say yes.

I think the 200 IM is a little bit weaker than you do. 7 of the 8 finalists from last year graduated.

The 500 is insane, 15 of 16 return.

4 seniors graduate from the 100 back final where 51.49 was what it took in the morning to get in the big heat.

4 seniors graduate from the 200 back final as well. 1:51.4 was 8th in prelims.

3:26.3 would’ve gone last year. I want to say the line was about a half second slower than that. Hope also has the luxury of picking who is swimming well to help find the right relay combination. Waterstone swam breast on their 4 medley at Wheaton, King was on the sprint medley. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an invite from this relay.

45 anything scored in the 100 last year. Rose has another second to drop. He’s has an impressive start to his college career, I wouldn’t put anything past him at this point.

CVB in the 200?

I do not want to knock Ellis because he is a great swimmer, but I don’t think he wins the 100 back. He really is not even the best freshmen backstroker in the country right now. That goes to Thomas at Hopkins. Will Espinosa win the 100 breast? I also think that would be pretty tough. Zarins could come back with a vengeance.

If those 2 guys and their 200 medley are the only people that score, then I think based on relays and Heyboer maybe scoring in 3 events. Hope should score more points

To me, NCAAs is all about the guaranteed points. Fonsy and Ellis will more than likely (80%+) be in the big heat. I won’t give it more than 50% than Heyboer gets into the big heat. Based on his events other than the 400 IM, which is his best chance, he still needs to get to the meet. I know people want 3 scores from Heyboer and while that’s possible, it’s a better possibility of him not finaling.
Let’s say Fonsy takes 3rd, which i don’t think is too outlandish. That’s 16 points. For Heyboer to equal that, he would need to average better than 12th in all of his events. And if he failed to get 12th in an event, the law of averages says he’d have to do better in the others. Also, for the record, Blohm scored 14 points last year. That also doesn’t count Ellis who will likely score at least 11 points from his 100 back and his 100 fly could score as well. Don’t forget he was a 51.0 in high school.
The relays is kind of the same. K has 1 in and will likely be top 8 in 2. (don’t forget, without the false start, K is sitting at 3:26 right now). Also, their free relays aren’t great, but they should score something, at least the 2FR and 4FR anyway. Hope’s relays took a big hit from huge losses last year, and didn’t place in the top 8 last year. Their medleys should be improved, but like Cheadle said, they need a breatroker with them at Nats.

I’ll take the “more than likely’s” over the “maybe if’s” any day.

Sorry for the absence, the mile high weather out here is crazy.

I guess I have two things to say. Talk about Blohm and Vroegindewey all you want but the fact remains, Hope’s free relays are WELL ahead of where they were last year at the same time with their team now than with those two last year. I can understand how easy it must be for all of you to sit back and say that they lost their top two freestylers so their free relays obviously won’t be as strong. That appears not to be the case.

Second. Last I knew, Hope doesn’t come all the way down like KZoo does in December. So that makes it a little bit more difficult to compare times and national rankings right now.

@TheAnswer wrote:

I guess I have two things to say. Talk about Blohm and Vroegindewey all you want but the fact remains, Hope’s free relays are WELL ahead of where they were last year at the same time with their team now than with those two last year. I can understand how easy it must be for all of you to sit back and say that they lost their top two freestylers so their free relays obviously won’t be as strong. That appears not to be the case.

How can you compare the 2? Blohm didn’t swim at Wheaton last year.

Blohm could’ve split 45.1 and still not topped this years relay.

Let’s not forget a large factor in this, how well will all of the swimmers taper again after MIAAs, and is anyone going to get the jitters at nats and choke? It’s going to come down to who drops a nut and gets the most hype for nats.

@swimkid4221 wrote:

…drops a nut…

I’m pretty sure no one says that.

Ellis went 51.0 in HS in the 100 fly. That is a good time, but that does not qualify him for the meet, nor will it score. I am not saying he is not capable of popping off 50.4 or so in the fly, but as it stands he would only score in 1 event. Yes their 2 medley will be great, but I am not sure about their other relays. Hope scores more points but not by much.

@Captain Insano wrote:

@swimkid4221 wrote:

…drops a nut…

I’m pretty sure no one says that.

I couldn’t stop laughing when i read this post. That’s hilarious.

@swim5599 wrote:

Ellis went 51.0 in HS in the 100 fly. That is a good time, but that does not qualify him for the meet, nor will it score. I am not saying he is not capable of popping off 50.4 or so in the fly, but as it stands he would only score in 1 event. Yes their 2 medley will be great, but I am not sure about their other relays. Hope scores more points but not by much.

I still don’t understand how Heyboer possibly scoring in 3 outscores 2 guys who will almost certainly final, if that is in fact the argument, which it seems to be from this post.

In the past few years, no men’s team from the MIAA has done exceptionally well at NCAAs, so my guess is that whoever goes in seeded with more “points”, gets more points. Unless K were to not taper Ellis and Fonsy, since they are in and so is the relay, but i don’t see that as likely.

As far as Heyboer, I think he has to taper to try to get medley relays in, but i would say his 400 IM is 95% safe. Of the top 11 from prelims last year, only 1 graduates, but the times also begin to drop off after that, even seed times, so he should be good.

Kzoo’s 400 med should be under 3:25, but 3:26.3 is kind of worst case scenario:

Ellis: 51.3
Fonzi: 55.7
Fly: 51.2
Free: 48.0
Total: 3:26.3

Strange things do happen (like at EMU), but I will be mightily disappointed if they are not significantly faster than that prelims at Nats. And last year that put you in the final heat. So I consider it unlikely that Kzoo does not place in the top 8 in the 400 medley.

Yep… I don’t think it will even be close at nationals.

Ellis and Fonzi basically give Kzoo the Boss effect between the two of them (right now, it takes two to equal Boss) — During the years of Boss, Kzoo had a much deeper team and was more well-rounded but Boss’ individual performances and presence on those relays factored out to huge points that Kzoo was not able to match with numerous individuals and relays in prelims.

Usually, I trust the usual suspects when it comes to this forum (milhouse, facenorth, silentp) and usually I wouls throw in DonCheadle. But Mr. Cheadle, I cannot tell what you are saying! First you say, Hope 3:26.3 won’t make it, when that time went last year. Next, you don’t even look at what happened in the 2IM with 7 of 8 leaving, which opens the door for people like Heyboer. Then, you say that K could go 3:26.3 but stil come back. Is a 3:26.3 differetn for 2 schools?

I am really at a loss for in regardsto your analysis.

In regards to H v. K at nats….I would say it comes down to K’s free relays. They will have two great legs on both the 2/4 free. But looking at the 4 medley, there are few that are going to be able to rip off much fast than a 47.5. Tacking on that split to a 4 free will hurt very badly (46.5, 46.5, 47.0, 47.5 = 3:07.5)…this would have been a 14th place and I think that this is a stretch. Mabe Greiner could go a 47.0 but I have no idea who that 47.5 is. You had to be a 1:24.9 to make it back at all in the 2 free. I don’t think that K can do that. Someone could break down the splits if they would like.

This leaves it Fonz/Ell/Medleys vs Heboer/5rels/others (others being if CVB, Rose, or anyone else picks up a point).

KZOO
Fonz, 2nd in the 1 breast- 17 pts
12th, 2:06 in the 2bre- 5 pts
Ellis, 5th in the 1 bk- 14 pts.
Won’t make it back in the 1 fl
K 2 med-2nd -34 pts
K 4 Med-8th -22 pts
k 4 free-15th-4 pts
K TOTAL: 92

HOPE
Heyboer 4:00in 4im, 4th- 15 pts
1:52 in the 2 bk, 10th, 7 pts
1:53 in 2IM, 9th- 9pts
RElays
2 free 10th 1:23.5-14 pts
4 free 8th3:04.5- 22 pts
8 free 11th 6:51.0- 12 pts
2 med 1:36.0 12th -10 pts
4 med 3:26.3 10th- 14pts
CVB or Rose in the 100 or the 200, or something:16th 1 pt.
H TOTAL: 104

I will take Hope.

Insight – the problem I have with your evaluation is – there is no guarantee that some of those relays will even get in. In fact, you’re hoping Hope’s free relays get in. Those times will all be on the bubble just to make the meet. K’s medleys will get in simply because, if nothing else, their 200 medley is in, so those guys can swim the 400 medley (as well as at least 2 other relays). I think that’s what Cheadle’s logic is – K is already going to be there, so their 3:26.3 will score. Hope’s medley is not in and may not get in.

The only way K’s 4th relay doesn’t score is if they come in DFL. Otherwise, the medley guys score in the 800 (although, probably the 200 FR). I personally voted for K because they will have relays at Nats. Until Hope goes a time that is safe I can’t vote for them, even though they didn’t do a full midseason taper. Their projected times just aren’t fast enough to be a lock.

I’m not sure, but I think only the top 10 relays were selected in each relay event (maybe 11 in one or two). Saying they’ll be fast enough for 11th or 12th means the same as “they’ll be watching the results online in Holland.”

Using your scoring I have K winning 112-31 (I gave K 13th in the 200 FR). Even if Hope does get a relay in, I don’t see the 4 guys performing as well as you’re predicting in all of those relays, so I don’t see 104 out of them regardless.

Wow, 4th place in the 400 IM by Heyboer, that’s really good, but…

Last year, Hope had 3 guys swim the 400 IM at Wheaton who swam it at MIAAs: KW, Josh Delo, and Brad Lininger. KW dropped 2.2 seconds, Brad Lininger added .3, and Josh Delo dropped about 2.5 seconds. So if we take out the 1 guy who added, and COMBINE the 2 guys who dropped time, we get still less time than Heyboer will drop? And that was just to MIAAs, most Hope swimmers added at NCAAs last year. This is just based on straight seconds, not a percentage of the time, since it is largely understood that faster times mean less in time drops in terms of seconds.

I know it’s hard to compare people with 1 another, but that was just my quick look.

I also like how Ellis can’t score any in the 1fly, but CVB or Rose will surely score something!

I just remembered that I watched one guy tie 7 guys from Carthage last year, so having 2 guys scoring in the big final in their respective events could theoretically score more points than a Hope team that might qualify a bunch of relays and a couple of ind’s. Hope will need to land a relay or 2 in the big final for them to win. Does anyone think they can do this.

8 free 11th 6:51.0- 12 pts

You’ve gotta be kidding me.

Earlier, I had praised Hope for teaching its students to add all the way to 4, but I see double-digits become way too much for them to handle:
17 + 5 + 14 + 34 + 22 + 4 pts = 96 (not 92)

Insight, look this up if you would like, but if the last team above the line would swim close (+/- .25) their seed time they would make it to the big heat more than 50% of the time. Hope gets a 400 medley to the meet, goes the same time at Nats, then they will place top 8.

Based on what I am reading here I have two questions…

1. If Hope gets a medley to the ‘ship will they beat KZoo? It appears as though based on the tone of the previous posts that the answer to that question is yes.

2. Can Hope get a medley there?

Yeah I guess I am wondering which medley is going to get in? They obviously have a good backstroker and good freestyler, but who swims the breast and fly, and do they have 58.5 and 50. in each of those?
Heyboer 51.5
? 58.5
? 50.5
Rose 45.5
3:26.00 yeah I guess that would do it. They have to get that from their flyer and breaststroker though

3:26.48 was the invite time last year if I am not mistaken. My hunch says you won’t have to be quite that fast to make this meet this year in the 400 medley. Of course, that is just a hunch.

Let’s look at the 400 MR, because i think that is there chance.

Teams who were above the line last year:
JHU – already in this year
Kenyon – in
Olaf – in
Denison – in
Williams – lost 2, including backstroke stud, but still has a good shot at being under the line i think
TCNJ – lost 3, i say out
Emory – likely in
Wheaton – lost 3, going to have a tough time, but had a solid midseason performance
Carthage – lost 1, has a shot
UWSP – lost 3, but was still 3:29 at midseason

So right now TCNJ, Wheaton, Carthage and UWSP are all shaky.

That’s 4 “open” spots, so who gets them?
Kzoo was basically a “converted” 3:26 without the incident, so look for them to grab a spot.
CMU was 3:31 and likely didn’t rest much, so they will compete for a spot.
WashU was 3:30, but i don’t see them faster than 3:27-28 at the end of the year.
Wastminster, i know nothing about them but their 3:30 already puts them in the hunt.
The 4 who got in last year could all make runs for it this year.

Hope has a good shot here, but will need a big breastroke split, as that seems to be the question mark for the team right now. You can’t argue that they are sitting prettier than more than a few teams for that relay right now however.

I do not think that Wheaton has enough fire power to get a 400 medley in, so I think that is one open spot for sure. I think Hope needs 58 low breaststroke split in order to make it close. They always swim great at their conf meet, so they will def take a run at it.

Carthage graduated 2 and their 3rd, Jared Hallam opted to play golf this year instead of swim.

Williams did graduated a national recordholder as one of their 4 legs.

What about W & L? Do they have a shot? GAC?

K is essentially already in. That leaves 3 spots if they take 8 relays. Last year they took 10 relays in every event except the 4 free, where they took 11. So that would leave 5 spots.

Williams, WashU, Hope, Wheaton, TCNJ, Carthage, CMU, W&L, Westminster, GAC. If that is what it comes down to, I think Hope has a good shot. Now there are usually some sleepers out there that get looked over. NYU is probably worth mentioning as well.

Swim5599 – Hope has already had a 51.2 split from their fly leg. I don’t think 50.5 is unreasonable. They also have a guy who was 59.6 last year in the breaststroke so who knows? Like any other relay, doing it all at the same time will be the issue.

The problem with Carthage getting their medley in is that Davis can not swim both the fly and free splits. They would need 52 low out of Reeder in the backstroke, and I am not sure he has enough speed for that.

Hope’s breaststroker has been 59.6 in his life, I would say the 58 low split could be in range. If they go the 3:26 that I speculated on they would be selected.

Williams is Williams so they will probably come up with enough to get in. I am not sure how, but someway

@silentp wrote:

Carthage – lost 1, has a shot

I thought Carthage lost 3 – Chapman and Sommers graduated and Hallam quit. I don’t see them getting in, so that’s 2.

Don’t forget about Middlebury – they cancelled the second half of their season last year but return a very solid medley relay. They’ll most likely take a spot.

I have to disagree with facenorth – last year was a weird year for the medleys – the 400 MR QT was a little faster than usual, but the 200 MR was a little slower. I think both will be faster this year.

Does Middlebury return Collier or no?

Collier is a senior.

@NCAA Psyche Sheet wrote:

9 Carthage College 3:26.01
1) Chapman, Nathaniel SR 2) Jole, Zach JR
3) Hallam, Jared FR 4) Davis, Bryce FR

This is why i thought Carthage only graduated 1.

The NESCAC will shake things up for sure… and what about a team like MIT? Maybe NYU makes a step up and gets someone in on this relay. It should be fast, no doubt.

I really don’t see a 58-low coming from the breastroke of Hope, but i don’t think 59-low would be a stretch by any means. They might not need the 58 either, but it does put a bit more pressure on the other guys. Rose is quite a competitor, but he may not have much of a race on his hands when he jumps in, so the question is, will that hurt him at all?

silentP,

How can you say Rose will not have a race when he dives in for the last leg of the 4 med at MIAAs when both K and Hope haven’t both been predicted around 3:26 in this thread? I don’t think Hope will win the relay because K is tough, but As things look Hope will be down by a bit going into the freestyle to K. Also lets not forget that Olivet will not be too shabby either with Fetters, Meisner, Koji and Powers.Rose will have a race end of story.

@Ghost Rider wrote:

silentP,

How can you say Rose will not have a race when he dives in for the last leg of the 4 med at MIAAs when both K and Hope haven’t both been predicted around 3:26 in this thread? I don’t think Hope will win the relay because K is tough, but As things look Hope will be down by a bit going into the freestyle to K. Also lets not forget that Olivet will not be too shabby either with Fetters, Meisner, Koji and Powers.Rose will have a race end of story.

While they both may have been predicted at some point as 3:26’s, i don’t believe many people think K will only be a 3:26 when the aggregate 400 MR at EMU was 3:26. I would think a second or 2 drop can be expected. The race should be at least a couple seconds apart, with it being closer to 4 seconds apart when Rose jumps in. The race with Olivet, however, may be a closer one, but i see them beating Olivet by a couple of seconds.

Lets look at the front half of the medleys alone. Kalamazoo could be up huge by the time the flyers dive in. I think it would be safe to say that the flyers on Hope and K probably cancel each other out. Hope has the advantage in the freestyle that is for sure, but will they be to far behind?

Heyboer 51.5 at the best
? 58.8 possibly

Ellis 50.5
Soriano 55.5

That is almost a 4.5 second lead. Rose is going to have to really move to pull that one off.

One of you was writing about guaranteed points earlier. Part of me wishes this conversation was taking place 5 years ago when 5 years ago to the day K, Hope and Calvin all had 400 free relays within a tenth of each other. All of those times made the cut prior to MIAAs (even though they didn’t know it at the time) but Kalamazoo had the fastest time so they must have had the most guaranteed points in that event, right? Ok that might have been a bit extreme and I know you’ll come back and say Hope had Boss and that’s like K having Fonz and Ellis cause Boss had two events and they each have one. Now I’m not sitting here trying to bark up the wrong tree or compare two things that are entirely different but that also happens to be the year that Hope went 3:04.1 at MIAAs, still the league meet record and 3:02 at Nats. The point that I’m trying to make is that a decent time in December that no one was sure would even make the meet ended up #6 on d3swimming.com’s all time top 10 times sheet. You can’t compare Kalamazoo in December to Hope in December. Even with the coaching change at Kalamazoo, you still can’t make that comparison because many people seem to think that K still comes way if not all the way down at EMU.

I’m not taking a side here because I think both teams will end up right around 100 points, it’s too close to call in my opinion at this point. Yes, it’s fun to argue about and it even got me out of hybernation but without all the facts it’s kind of silly to take such a STRONG stand one way or the other. Hope could step up and swim great in February, K could have sizeable drops from EMU at MIAAs. Hope could not improve much from Wheaton, K’s December taper might have been their best one. Either way you look at it, Hope has the potential to swim better than any of the K posters think with more than Heyboer and relays scoring, and what I don’t think anyone outside of Zoo is taking into consideration is that Ellis can score in the 200 back and the 100 fly. Not to mention Espinosa has already posted a time that could score in the 2 breast and he will likely be on 5 scoring relays. Damn y’all.

When you mention that Ellis can score in the 2 back and 1 fly are we talking about at nats or at the conf meet? I don’t think he can score in the 100 fly at nats as of yet based on his best times.

I think it will be interesting to see who scores more points at nationals.

Ellis could score at nationals in the 200 back or 100 fly; heck, probably even the 50 free… but we just have not seen enough of him to make any calls. I’ll start making those next year 🙂

As for Eastern, I always did a mild taper for Eastern… as did most of the team, I believe. Definitely more of a taper than what I would do for leagues, and I always swam faster at the end of the year than at Eastern. I can’t think of too many occassions where anyone had faster times at eastern with the exception of Latham a couple times (whom I think perhaps did better with less rest) and perhaps Duda once.

Two guys built Kzoo’s reputation for having the best meet of the year at Eastern: Latham and JD. Other than that it just isn’t true (and it’s not really true for those two guys either). Speaking for myself, I had one good swim there ever.

Don’t forget, heyboer is H’s fastest breast stroker. They have a couple of freshman that can swim back and fly.

I don’t know if ellis can score in the 100 fly or the 200 back at nationals. Probably a shot at the 200 back, but Pr’s of 51.0 in the fly does not equate to scoring in the 100 fly. He is a great 100 backstroker but it is probably to early to tell in the other events.

Swim5599 – If Ellis doesn’t improve his high school time in the 100 fly, you’re right, he probably wouldn’t score…he might….but he probably wouldn’t. If he improves only slightly, he’s scoring. 51.06 was 18th last year, I’d say he’s got a good shot to score it.

Sea Dog – If you are suggesting Heyboer swims breaststroke on the medley, what would you need to get out of the guy on the front end to make it worth your while? I could be wrong, but I suspect Heyboer’s ability in the breaststroke is greater the longer the distance. If you’re going to get a 52.0 out of one of your backstrokers, it’s probably worth the experiment…if not, you have a guy that’s been under a minute and another who has split just over. What would Heyboer have to go to make it worth your while?

You’re right Aflac, Heyboer gets better as the distance increases
I’d doubt greatly that he would be swimming breast for a relay. His ability to swim the 200 is his strength in that stroke

@swim5599 wrote:

I don’t know if ellis can score in the 100 fly or the 200 back at nationals. Probably a shot at the 200 back, but Pr’s of 51.0 in the fly does not equate to scoring in the 100 fly. He is a great 100 backstroker but it is probably to early to tell in the other events.

For those of you confused by this post, let me clear things up. This can all be related to Economics. As an Economics major, I feel I can clear things up regarding this.
In Economics, there is something we call a Price Ceiling. A Price Ceiling is usually enforced by a government agency and is the maximum price at which a good, product, service, etc. can be sold at. This is done usually for one of a couple reasons, such as monopolization of the market or increasing prices, without shortage or increase in demand. Different factor of course go into this.
To relate this to Swim5599’s post, a Time Ceiling has been placed on Mr. Ellis’ 100 fly time. While his other times, such as this huge drop for his 200 back, have the ability to move freely in the swimming world, which could mostly closely be realted to a free market, laissez faire, system, his 100 fly is kept at his current PR of 51.0. Instead of a government agency enforcing said time, Swim5599 has set this ceiling, under which all of Paul’s times for this event must fall. The reasoning for this is uncertain, but since these ceiling are usually set for consumers, one can only guess Swim5599 is merely looking out for the general good of the swimmers Mr. Ellis competes with.
All of us MIAA fans look forward to Swim5599 monitoring activity at the conference championships come February, where he will no doubt be on deck, reuglating the moves and times of Paul during his 100 fly, should he choose to swim it. If he should happen to be approaching the wall just a hair too quickly, we will see either instant disqualification, or some sort of force, stopping Paul from finishing the race in anything faster than 51.0. Thank you and good day.

Thank you for the economics lecture, it has been awhile since I have had one.

Swim5599, you have to admit that was funny.

Derek wrote:

Swim5599, you have to admit that was funny.

I laughed.

I laughed too, but only because silentp didn’t address the possible consequences of a price ceiling.

When the government sets a price ceiling, it creates the possibility of a shortage (shortage = when the quantity demanded exceeds the quantity supplied, which occurs when the ceiling price is set below what the equilibrium price would be. Remember…supply goes up, demand goes down!)

As it relates to swimming, this shortage created by swim5599’s time ceiling (or should it be a floor?) for Mr. Ellis’s 100 backstroke could result in a shortage of swimmers in said event. This could result in Mr. Ellis’s national championship in said event due to the shortage of possible competitors.

Of course, this is merely economic theory. And when has an economist ever been right about anything?

Aflac- 400 Med relay, you are probably right. I was thinking about Ruch in the back and Nelis in the fly. Ruck went 54 at Wheaton but its probably not enough.
It might be interesting though. Heyboer looked good in the breast last Sat.

Does Heyboer have 57 low in him in the 100? Because if he did and they could get that guy to go 53 low in the back then it might be worth the stretch.

Back 53.2
Heyboer 57.0
FLyer 51.0
Rose 45.0
That is 3:26.2. Of course Rose would have to split out of his mind.

Engers went a 53.7 last year, it is very reasonable to expect a 52 high out of him. But 57 low from Heyboer seems a tad fast. I have been wondering that myself though. I would think that Engers and Lane2Allstar would need to go all out in prelims of the 400 medley to make this decision. I would assume a 52.0 and a 58.0 out of Heyboer. This would mean if Engers can outsplit Lane2 by 6.0 seconds he should be on the relay at night. Just a thought…

@DonCheadle wrote:

Engers went a 53.7 last year, it is very reasonable to expect a 52 high out of him. But 57 low from Heyboer seems a tad fast. I have been wondering that myself though. I would think that Engers and Lane2Allstar would need to go all out in prelims of the 400 medley to make this decision. I would assume a 52.0 and a 58.0 out of Heyboer. This would mean if Engers can outsplit Lane2 by 6.0 seconds he should be on the relay at night. Just a thought…

That would be ideal but Waterstone may also have the opportunity to be on the relay. They could put Waterstone on the 4MR and King on the 2MR, but the 2MR is a longshot to make it. The bad part for King is that his best events are obviously the breasts, so he won’t have a chance to prove himself and the Hope coaches will be unable to evaluate the type of meet he’s having. Waterstone’s best event by far is the 2IM, but that doesn’t always directly translate to the 100 breast.

The problem with the short medley for Hope is that Heyboer is more of a distance backstroker. I would be shocked if he was under 24.5 in the 50 back. You have to be faster than that in order to go 1:33 mid to high. They have a legit guy in Rose on the end, but they would need 24.3, 26.5 23.0 and 20.3 to have a chance. That is 1:34.1, and that might not be enough.

You are right about Heyboer. The longer the event the better.
Whats really positive is that Hope has a lot of options this year with
the big freshman class. Some good potential swimmers.
I look for kyle to have a great season this being his senior year. His hand is healed and he’s training hard.
The girls team is also looking good. Another big freshman class. Should do
great especially after Becky Graduates.

@Sea Dog wrote:

The girls team is also looking good. Another big freshman class. Should do great especially after Becky Graduates.

What is the breakdown of the women’s meet this year? We all know Becky is great and Calvin is the heavy favorite, but any chance of them getting knocked off? Also, what races should us normally only men’s swimming fans, be looking at closely?

It depends on what Becky swims. Hope is rated ahead of Calvin in most of the relays but Calvin didn’t taper as well as hope for mid seasons. This
might end up closer than we think.
Hope women are rated 5th or 6th Nationally right now.
My guess is calvin wins but close. Next year Hope no doubt.

Heyboer was 59 mid on the breaststroke leg of the medley. What does that mean? Does it change anything?

Has anyone’s opinions of who will score more points at NCAAs changed after MIAAs?

Also, i think the Calvin women proved they will be tough next month, really beating down a VERY good Hope womens team, which could be top 10 correct?

Yeah right now this is no contest. Hope will do better at Nats though. I think they will score just fine in their free relays, I’ll give them 8th (400), 10th (200) and 12th (800). What will their medley relays look like? vogelzang on breast? He will be fine for the 50, but not the 100. Individual top 8 swims are possible but unlikely at this point (first time since 1998? Maybe ’04?).

With a 1:01 breast split from Vogelzang they won’t be scoring many points in their medlies. I am counting on Nelis being at the meet so the medlies won’t be a total wreck, but still 3:28 high 1:35 low won’t score much maybe 13th and 14th.

Vogelzang was low minute point last year if I remember right. I’m pretty sure I do because I was really impressed, I wasn’t sure he had that in him. He’s also swimming much better this year (but no breaststroke that we are really aware of). Nelis managed to swim faster in his 100 fly than the 400 medley relay, which is very uncharacteristic of Hope relays. If that changes and he is around the average difference in relays than open swims that most of the guys are at Hope he’s in the 49s. Do I think that will happen, probably not. But I do think he’s capable of faster than what he split on that relay. Heyboer I would think could be faster too. Like someone said earlier, you can’t fault the guy for swimming the 500 the way he did but my gosh, what a brutal swim. You might’ve topped Rose out about 45.1 though. I think it’s feasible that they are in the 3:27’s again.

Anybody score out the MIAA yet?

Calvin 0

Hope: (-) Hunnybunz