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Well, as is always with d3swimming.com, it is never too early to begin dreaming about the future.
So then, the question must be asked: Who’s going to win in 2008?
Gustavus obviously will have some increased motivation, after the heartbreaking loss by 5 points after winning 5 straight. Looking at the final top times list from ’07 (http://www.miac-online.org/menfinal0607.htm), GAC owns the freestyle events, while the majority of the strokes/IMs go to the Oles.
On the flip side, Olaf will be riding the momentum of the previous year’s victory. Is it enough to produce victory once more? Did the Oles recruit a few more Manley’s to pull out amazing swims when his team needs him most?
Or how about something really bold? Could this be the year for Carleton or St. John’s to replace one of the two superpowers (GAC and STO) for second? I’d love to say that either of these teams has a shot at winning, but even in the fanciful realm of my mind they just don’t. Second, however, is not too many years off if you ask me.
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I should mention some key losses on both sides:
First are foremost are The Clydesdales from GAC. Yep, I’m talking about Hagemeyer and Amundson. It’s been a long while since any MIAC team has produced one sprinter of this caliber, let alone two. Their graduating leaves many relay spots wide open on GAC’s roster, in addition to the 50, 100, and 200 free.
Andrew Howard will be missing from the boards, an already weak spot in the GAC roster. Can this fill this hole and stop the leak of points come conference?
Also from GAC is Josh Waylander; backstroker and IMer.
On the Olaf side:
They’re losing Joe Anderson, distance swimmer and Ben Hanson’s full-time wingman.
Blaise and Christian the divers. Ridiculous name aside, Blaise had major board experience and will be missed. Christian’s skills can never be replaced.
Kukla was a backstroker, and always a finals contender.
Wareham owned the breaststrokes, leaving these events up for grabs.
Adam Thomas was also a very reliable finals swimmer that will be missed at the U.
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@Tobias wrote:
kari byron is so witty and funny
Why thank you, Tobias. Nice to know I’m not the only one who thinks that.
P.S.: Very funny last season of Arrested Development.
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Now that rosters are up, anyone care to predict team places for conference? For what it’s worth here’s my two cents.
1. St. Olaf-The added bonus of possibly winning some of the free relays keeps them in first.
2. GAC- Just enough to get second but not enough big swimmers to win.
3. St. Thomas- All those new kids and all of last years swimmers won’t let them get any lower.
4. Carleton- Only get 4th by less than 15.
5. St. Johns- Lost too many seniors.
6. St. Mary’s- Thank you Jons (Fox and DelMundo)
7. Macalester – Foreign market helps.
8. Hamline – Six guys can’t do much, no matter how hard they try.
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@stroker69 wrote:
2. GAC- Just enough to get second but not enough big swimmers to win.
Just enough to get second? I think it is more then safe to say that it is both Gustavus and Olaf at one and two. The only real debate is who going to be #1 and how will everyone finish behind them. I would be suprised third place is even within 200 points of 2nd.
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@stroker69 wrote:
Now that rosters are up, anyone care to predict team places for conference?
1. St. Olaf – They’ll be riding off of last year and based on what they lost and what I’ve heard they’ve gained Olaf will have the power to repeat.
2. Gustavus – Out of all the teams GAC was probably hardest hit by graduation. Based on what I’ve heard they got for freshman, they weren’t able to completely fill the gaps and should be a lock for #2.
3. Carleton – Hurt a little by graduation, but got a solid freshman class. Always tough at MIACs, I think they can take 3rd, albeit not by a large margin.
4. St. Thomas – Provided the freshman are able acclimate to collegiate swimming in a kiddie pool the Tommies should be good for 4th.
5. St. Johns – Possible worse than GAC, graduation nearly totaled this team with not much for freshman. Could put up a fight for 4th, most likely #5 spot though.
6. St. Mary’s – Best of the bottom 3; nowhere near St. Johns.
7. Macalester – Not enough to take St. Mary’s; plenty to take Hamline.
8. Hamline – Barely being able to put a relay together is never a good sign of success.
Some Notes:
I think the top two spots are a lock with Gustavus and Olaf, just depends on what order.
I also think that 3rd, 4th, and 5th are going to be quite tight between Carleton, St. Johns, and St. Thomas. With a good morning session to set themselves up and solid night swims, any of those three teams could take 3rd. Should be a good battle.
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@shootmeup wrote:
GAC’s roster isn’t up. do you have an inside source for your conference predictions??
Of course we do! What do you think die-hard Alums do besides speculate about the coming season and pry information out of current swimmers, coaches, and recent alumni?
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@silentp wrote:
Wiht 16 individuals scoring in each non-relay event, I think you over-estimate the importance of relays… it’s not like GAC will be going from 1st to 7th…
That’s a good point, silentp. But then again with relays, you only get one shot. In an individual event, if one of 6 guys entered DQs you still have 5 chances to score points. If your relay DQs, the points are gone for you. That and the relays are worth twice the bounty!
I do agree that Gustavus won’t be doing from 1st to 7th in the relays. But in past years they have gone into MIACs knowing that they would win a couple of relays, with a great shot at snatching a couple more. I don’t think, at this point atleast, that the same can be said.
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@Rustie Gustie wrote:
@Mac of the MIAC wrote:
GAC – In a 100 pt runaway
Bold prediction, Mac.
Having read this thread first and replying before doing some quick math in another thread, I am reversing my previous statement. I no longer think that a 100 pt runaway is bold. I merely think that it’s might be at the high end of things, with a slight to moderate victory being more likely.
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