Houston, we have a problem

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    • #12160

      Did someone already drop that one?

      Anyway, this could be the year a team, other than Kenyon, wins, it’s been discussed before, maybe Denison, maybe Emory, probably not Hopkins, and those are really the only teams that could make a serious run. But with that said, it has also been discussed that Kenyon lacks sprinters, Denison has some decent ones, Emory seems to be developing some, and Hopkins has some very good ones. Furthermore, Kenyon lacks backstrokers and a bonafied butterflier, after losing Duda. So without sprint freestylers, a fast backstroker, and a bankable butterflier, how high can they realistically place in the medleys, both?

      They are deep in the breaststroke and you can maybe even count on a 54 split this year, but their fastest backstroker will not crack 52, and they have a flier that can maybe go a 48, Harris I think his name is. But their fastest freestyler, after losing Berger, who was not even that fast of an individual freestyle sprinter, is like a 46 flat start at best (or as of now). What is the highest they can really place, 5th? Maybe 4th? Denison, Emory, and Hopkins can all beat Kenyon in both meds.

      Let’s say Kenyon takes at best a 5th in the 8 free, which is unlikely considering they placed 9th last year with DeHart, Dunn, Brennion, and I think Christian (?), none of whom were significant freestylers, and they didn’t pick anyone up.

      So with all of their relays placing at an average of 5th, can they really win it this year, realistically? You never know what those guys will do come nationals time, they always pull some crazy times out, and they are so stacked at distance, breaststroke, and 200 fly, so maybe they can pull it out. Thoughts?…I’m new here, if you don’t recognize the name.[/b]

    • #33009
    • #33010
      silentp
      Member

      I’d call Harris a bankable flyer, but that’s just me.

    • #33011
      neswim
      Member

      I disagree with the particulars of the thesis but not its conclusion.Harris is legit, Irgens is setting personal bests in season and could break 52 and a number of freshman will have an impact…having said all of that when one looks at the top times as of 12-6, now posted on the NCAA website, it does appear that Kenyon has it work cut out to maintain its streak…but who will beat it, Denison or Emory? You can make the case for Emory based on a very strong individual roster. The case for Denison has already been made elsewhere but they have weakness vis-a-vis Emory in breast, both IMs (Emory has 6 swimmers with 06 Q Times in the 200 IM) and the 2 Fly. Are the relays enough for Denison to finish ahead of Emory?

    • #33012

      I wouldn’t write off KC just yet. This has been a sad, no devistating, semester in Gambier and those familar with the program know what I’m talking about and are not about to make excuses about it, but long story short, they’ve turned the corner and should find themselves hitting on all cylinders sometime soon. Word has it the change was clearly visible upon the big man’s return to the pool deck on Saturday. An animal is most dangerous when it’s cornered.

    • #33013

      I think Kenyon will win. I *hope* Denison wins. I don’t think Emory has a prayer, but I wouldn’t mind them winning either.

    • #33014

      @EverybodyWangChung2Nite wrote:

      Did someone already drop that one?

      Anyway, this could be the year a team, other than Kenyon, wins, it’s been discussed before, maybe Denison, maybe Emory, probably not Hopkins, and those are really the only teams that could make a serious run. But with that said, it has also been discussed that Kenyon lacks sprinters, Denison has some decent ones, Emory seems to be developing some, and Hopkins has some very good ones. Furthermore, Kenyon lacks backstrokers and a bonafied butterflier, after losing Duda. So without sprint freestylers, a fast backstroker, and a bankable butterflier, how high can they realistically place in the medleys, both? [/b]

      You like commas!

    • #33015
      N Dynamite
      Member

      If you pause every time there’s a comma it sounds like Captain Kirk from Star Trek. Mr. Spock, you, are, one of the smartest, people I know…

    • #33016
      swim5599
      Member

      I would call a guy that split 48.8 in the 100 fly a legit flyer. IN fact there is not one guy returning that has done that. Yes Byers could do it and Westby probably could also, but as we sit here Harris has the fastest returning split. They have a guy that will be anywhere from 54.8-55.3 in the breaststroke. They have the middle part of that relay covered. Irgens is a good backstroker, but 51.9 is probably not enough. I am sure they will have a guy split 45 low on the end of that relay.

      Irgens 51.9
      Zarins 55.3
      Harris 48.8
      ? 45.4
      Is that enough? Who knows

      I think it would be pretty neat if Denison won, but there is a ridiculous streak on the line, and a lot of pride must go into that, so lets not quite count the Lords out yet

    • #33017

      @swim5599 wrote:

      I would call a guy that split 48.8 in the 100 fly a legit flyer. IN fact there is not one guy returning that has done that. Yes Byers could do it and Westby probably could also, but as we sit here Harris has the fastest returning split. They have a guy that will be anywhere from 54.8-55.3 in the breaststroke. They have the middle part of that relay covered. Irgens is a good backstroker, but 51.9 is probably not enough. I am sure they will have a guy split 45 low on the end of that relay.

      Irgens 51.9
      Zarins 55.3
      Harris 48.8
      ? 45.4
      Is that enough? Who knows

      I think it would be pretty neat if Denison won, but there is a ridiculous streak on the line, and a lot of pride must go into that, so lets not quite count the Lords out yet

      Like I said earlier, Byers split 48.8 last year in his 100 fly… not that it really matters. I’m guessing Matt Harris is going to drop from last years swims as well.

    • #33018
      Anonymous
      Member

      Byers “only” split 49.37 last year on Denison’s relay … he’s already been 49.3 flat start this year … hmmm

    • #33019

      @bigdogracing wrote:

      Byers “only” split 49.37 last year on Denison’s relay … he’s already been 49.3 flat start this year … hmmm

      Really? I swear I had him as a 48 split on my relay… I guess not. Sorry 5599, I’m wrong : )

    • #33020
      swim5599
      Member

      Hey there is a first time for everything rhyme. I believe Byers was 49 low and 21.8 for his fly splits last year. He has been 49.3 flat start and 21.6 to this point.

    • #33021

      @RhymeAndReason wrote:

      I think Kenyon will win. I *hope* Denison wins. I don’t think Emory has a prayer, but I wouldn’t mind them winning either.

      I think Emory has just as much of a chance as Dension. Emory will will be sending at least 16 scorers if not a complete 18. They look solid on paper, with there individuals like the 200-400 IMers and there 500Freestylers.

      Dension has the upper hand in all the relays (against Emory), but with Emory’s individual standings, they both seem close enough to chase down Kenyon’s title.

    • #33022

      Another thing Emory lost from last year was their good diver Klein. He scored some big points for htem last year and I dont think they have anyone to replace that. Last year they were the only top team with diving points and that was big for them. This year, it looks like Denison might have a couple who might score. That could be a big advantage.

    • #33023

      Yes, Emory lost Klein. It would be inaccurate to say that he scored “big points” for them last year though because he blew out his shoulder on both 1 and 3 meter. He had to pull out of the 1 meter entirely. He toughed it out in the 3 meter though, and I think he got 9th (9 points). Denison’s divers do look good on paper. That could prove to help them a lot.

    • #33024

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      Another thing Emory lost from last year was their good diver Klein. He scored some big points for htem last year and I dont think they have anyone to replace that. Last year they were the only top team with diving points and that was big for them. This year, it looks like Denison might have a couple who might score. That could be a big advantage.

      I may be wrong, but according to the results Klein didnt even complete the 1 meter, scoring no points. He didnt make the finals in the 3 meter and “only” 9 points. Everyone point counts if the scores are going to be as close as they are being predicted, but seriously, the 9 points can be picked up by sending another swimmer (freshman- Petroff) who can score in two events.

    • #33025
      Chris Knight
      Member

      Don’t divers count as 1/3 of a swimmer toward the 18 maximum? In other words, should Emory or Denison not qualify 18 swimmers, wouldn’t it be a huge advantage to get up to 3 divers in, particularly if they can score? I could see diving having some impaact on the final score. It certainly has in the D1 meet in recent years.

    • #33026

      Sorry, forgot he didnt score in the 1 m last year, it was his Jr year he was a double finalist I think. I do remember that 9th place in the 3m though b/c it gave Emory 3rd place over us. So diving can make a difference.

    • #33027

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      Sorry, forgot he didnt score in the 1 m last year, it was his Jr year he was a double finalist I think. I do remember that 9th place in the 3m though b/c it gave Emory 3rd place over us. So diving can make a difference.

      you have to keep in mind that Emory got dq’d in a few events. The one diver made an impact there, but so did the DQ’s. Look at the 800 free relay for the women. Kenyon would have women the meet, only if they won that relay or at least picked up some points rather than the DQ.

    • #33028
      neswim
      Member

      @wickedfoolish wrote:

      I think Emory has just as much of a chance as Dension. Emory will will be sending at least 16 scorers if not a complete 18. They look solid on paper, with there individuals like the 200-400 IMers and there 500Freestylers.

      Dension has the upper hand in all the relays (against Emory), but with Emory’s individual standings, they both seem close enough to chase down Kenyon’s title.

      I think Emory will finish ahead of Denison. While Denison has divers they are sophmores or juniors and didn’t score last year. Why should we assume they will score this year?

      Denison has bankable stars and strong relays, hence the belief they can beat Kenyon. Yet they only have 5 swimmers with A or 2006 Q times. While they have a number of swimmers with B times that could qualify it doesn’t appear likely they will have a full roster.

      Emory on the other hand has 11 swimmers with A or 06 Q times and an additional two swimmers with B times. Kenyon has 14 swimmers with A or 06 Q Times and six more swimmers with B times that could qualify, in other words Kenyon is almost certain to field a full squad of 18 swimmers with a minimum of relay only swimmers. With depth comes leverage in terms of improvement from mid-season to championship.

      The meet will be close but looks to me, at midpoint as if:

      1) Kenyon holds to win in closest meet in recent history on the men’s side
      2) Emory finishes ahead of Denison using their depth to overcome Denison’s relay advantage
      3) Denison is third place but with star performances and new relay record.

      The situation on the women’s side is similar as to the finish at the top but flip-flop at 2 and 3:
      1) Kenyon..star power, depth and relays too much for everyone else. If the continue to improve between now and Nationals it won’t be close
      2) Denison…they match Emory in depth but do better in relays
      3) Emory…the streak ends at two.

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