Gustavus Top 10 at Nationals

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    • #12222
      splitmaster
      Member

      I have been reading in this Forum and the general opinion is that GAC will win Conference but St. Olaf will finish better in Nationals.
      The way I see it is that St. Olaf will get a lot of points once more from Westby, the same as last year but I don’t see any other major point provider.
      On the other hand I see Gustavus getting a lot more points than last year. I predict Matt Stewart to be a top 8 in a couple of events, together with Sky and of course Ben Hanson may ad a few points to his count from last year.
      The rest of both teams will bring a similar amount of points as they did last year.

    • #33856

      The other major point provider from Olaf will be their diver, Lorentzen–I’d put him as one of my favorites for national champion.

    • #33857
      iknowall
      Member

      Look for Koch, Kukla, Meyer, and Wareham to add points in their respective events.

    • #33858

      I think a big obstacle for the Gusties to overcome is the performance of their sprinters this year. Their 200 free relay is 2 whole seconds slower this year (1:26.59) then last year (1:24.45) (In fact, Olaf’s 200 free relay has gone faster this year than the Gustie’s with a 1:26.42). While this might not matter too much at conference, it will at nationals. Relays make up a very large part of a team’s total points. With a 200 free relay going 2 seconds slower, I would imagine that will move them down quite a few places and cost them a quite a few points. I think that their distance swimmers will easily make up for that loss of points, and GAC will total more points then last year, but not enough to beat Olaf at nationals. I predict GAC to be between 8th and 10th.

      On a side note… will this year’s nationals be as fast as last years? I can recall a majority of the swimmers dropping from their conference times as compared to most other years where most people were not quite going as fast as they were seeded. I think a lot of this had to do with the meet being at a really gast pool like the U of M. How will things be different this year? (will they be different?) If so, how will that affect MIAC placings at nationals?

    • #33859
      silentp
      Member

      @iknowall wrote:

      Look for Koch, Kukla, Meyer, and Wareham to add points in their respective events.

      I don’t expect Meyer or Wareham to add points, but we shall see.

      Olaf, in my opinion, will be finishing a strong 6th, and it likely won’t be too close of a battle for that 6th spot, quite a ways behind 5th but comfortably ahead of 7th.

    • #33860
      swim5599
      Member

      I think Westby is capable of collecting 60 points individually by himself. Will it happen probably not, but it sure would be interesting to see. Both teams will be in the top 10 I would think, but Olaf’s strength is the 2 medleys and the 8 free relay, whereas Gac relies on those 2 sprint relays. It should be a good matchup at the conf meet.

      In terms of the nat meet being faster I am inclined to think it could be about that same, but you have to look at the nat champs from a year ago that graduated probably more then ever. Duda, Slavik, Brennion, Triebe, Cunningham, Schmitt, Hake. That is a lot of fast and talented guys. I think the sprint depth is still there, we might see 20 guys under 21 again this year.

    • #33861

      its interesting you point out olafs 8 free relay and not gacs. although olaf beat gac the last 2 years at nats in that relay, one of the guys on their relay (evensen) is no longer on the team. gac on the other hand has everyone back, and from stewart and hansons in-season 200s (both a second faster), itimes, the relay will drop a few more seconds this year. if olaf is to beat gac in the 800 free relay, who will be the guy from olaf to go the necessary 142-143 to beat gac?

    • #33862

      Could Sky-Dave make the 800 free relay? I know the top 25 times sheet lists him wrong, but looking at the GAC site I saw that he led off the B 800 at the U of M invite back in early November with a 1:48.80… which was faster than Amundson’s relay start that day.

      Most GAC swimmers posted in-season bests in December. I couldn’t find any 200 relay or other times for him since his November swim, but I’d imagine it would be faster considering the drops in his 500 and mile times.

      If Sky-Dave comes out and rips it up in the 500, I wouldn’t be surprised if assistant to the head coach Hagen, and coach Carlson, gave him a shot at the 800 free relay.

    • #33863

      If he is swimming well he should have a shot, I am not sure what his times are in the 200 from this year. But if a couple of others have some wicked swims who have swam the relay in the past, he might not get a chance. Stewart and Hanson are on it for sure, but it can depend on how Cuevas, Pokorski (sp?), and others are swimming. Amundson won’t be on it, he will be anchoring the other four relays.

    • #33864
      SeekUp
      Member

      @littleswimmerguy wrote:

      its interesting you point out olafs 8 free relay and not gacs. although olaf beat gac the last 2 years at nats in that relay, one of the guys on their relay (evensen) is no longer on the team. gac on the other hand has everyone back, and from stewart and hansons in-season 200s (both a second faster), itimes, the relay will drop a few more seconds this year. if olaf is to beat gac in the 800 free relay, who will be the guy from olaf to go the necessary 142-143 to beat gac?

      Last year Olaf’s Adam Thomas was in Australia for second semester and did not compete in conference or nationals but as a freshman he was the conference champ in the 200 free and swam 1:43’s at conference and nationals his sophomore year. Aside from evensen everyone else is back and Thomas could be the “necessary 142-143” guy to beat gac

    • #33865

      I agree. GAC sprinting is in trouble. Hagemeyer and Wakefield are both having bad years. Will they taper? Hagemeyer is still dominant, but will Wakefield be bumped from the relays and possibly the conference roster? GAC does have about 8 people swimming 22.highs this year. Who they put on the relay will be interesting. Clem Auyung is swimming well, but does not taper well.

      @backstroker02 wrote:

      I think a big obstacle for the Gusties to overcome is the performance of their sprinters this year. Their 200 free relay is 2 whole seconds slower this year (1:26.59) then last year (1:24.45) (In fact, Olaf’s 200 free relay has gone faster this year than the Gustie’s with a 1:26.42). While this might not matter too much at conference, it will at nationals. Relays make up a very large part of a team’s total points. With a 200 free relay going 2 seconds slower, I would imagine that will move them down quite a few places and cost them a quite a few points. I think that their distance swimmers will easily make up for that loss of points, and GAC will total more points then last year, but not enough to beat Olaf at nationals. I predict GAC to be between 8th and 10th.

      On a side note… will this year’s nationals be as fast as last years? I can recall a majority of the swimmers dropping from their conference times as compared to most other years where most people were not quite going as fast as they were seeded. I think a lot of this had to do with the meet being at a really gast pool like the U of M. How will things be different this year? (will they be different?) If so, how will that affect MIAC placings at nationals?

    • #33866
      silentp
      Member

      Do people really think Wakefield will be off the roster and for sure bumped from the relay? He split a 20.5 last year, that’s really quick.

      If we compare years, just based on Carthage, he was about the same in the 100 and actually faster in the 50. His Point Invite times were quicker last year, but only slightly, nothing significant that i see. I wouldn’t worry about him, he’s a relay swimmer and will step up with a split under 21 for their 200 FR. We also don’t need to worry about his 100 as much because Hanson will fill his spot nicely.

      I think Jonah may be the man to fill the 4th spot on that 200 FR as well, unless they give it to Stewart, depending on how is sprinting is looking.

    • #33867

      @silentp wrote:

      I think Jonah may be the man to fill the 4th spot on that 200 FR as well, unless they give it to Stewart, depending on how is sprinting is looking.

      If Stewart Swims the 500, I don’t see him doing the 200 free relay right before that. Does he go the IM instead to make the relay faster and give GAC more depth in the IM. They have a lot of fast 500 guys (Hanson, Davis, Cuevas, etc.), but not as much depth in the 200 IM.

    • #33868
      iknowall
      Member

      Stewart won’t switch to the IM because he hasn’t qualified for nats in the 500 yet and he won’t want to swim the IM at nats.

    • #33869

      iknowall, you clearly have never qualified for nats yourself. Conference is just like any other meet during the year. It has nothing to do with the events you swim at nats. Stewart needs only one solid time in, say, the 200 fly to be able to swim it, and 2 more events of his choice at nats.

      @iknowall wrote:

      Stewart won’t switch to the IM because he hasn’t qualified for nats in the 500 yet and he won’t want to swim the IM at nats.

    • #33870

      @iknowall wrote:

      Stewart won’t switch to the IM because he hasn’t qualified for nats in the 500 yet and he won’t want to swim the IM at nats.

      Also, remember this forum is only an outlet for voicing your own opinions. Unless you are Matt Stewart, I wouldnt be saying what his opinion is. For all you know, he may like swimming the IM. I know that I dont appreciate others telling me what I think, and I am guessing you dont like others telling you what you think. So dont tell Stewart (and the rest of us) what Stewart thinks.

      Say “I dont think Stewart will switch to the IM because he hasn’t qualified for nats in the 500 yet and I dont think he will want to swim the IM at nats.”

      Sorry, this is just a pet peeve of mine, I was/am not trying to pick on iknowall specifically.

    • #33871
      The Treat
      Member

      @backstroker02 wrote:

      @iknowall wrote:

      Stewart won’t switch to the IM because he hasn’t qualified for nats in the 500 yet and he won’t want to swim the IM at nats.

      Also, remember this forum is only an outlet for voicing your own opinions. Unless you are Matt Stewart, I wouldnt be saying what his opinion is. For all you know, he may like swimming the IM. I know that I dont appreciate others telling me what I think, and I am guessing you dont like others telling you what you think. So dont tell Stewart (and the rest of us) what Stewart thinks.

      Say “I dont think Stewart will switch to the IM because he hasn’t qualified for nats in the 500 yet and I dont think he will want to swim the IM at nats.”

      Sorry, this is just a pet peeve of mine, I was/am not trying to pick on iknowall specifically.

      but he knows all, so shouldnt he be able to say ridiculous things like that?

    • #33872

      Whether inkowall says it, or Stewart says it, I doubt Stewart swims the 200IM over the 500 at this point.

      I don’t think there would really be much of a points difference in him swimming either event. I have him 3rd in either event right now… unless Carlson (or Stewart) thinks he can overtake Marschall and Westby, I’d keep him in the 500.

      Stewart, Sky-Dave, and Hanson will need to fend off Anderson to go 1-2-3 in the 500. While Cuevas or Pearson could theoretically jump to 3rd in the 200IM if Stewart doesn’t swim it. In the 200IM, there is Marschall and Westby, and then there is decent gap to about 5-6 other guys who could step up.

      I think part of coaching swimming is that you have to balance individual goals with team goals. Carlson is pretty good at this. Since the 500 seems like a better event for Stewart, and the points difference would be small to none, then why not swim the 500? Then again, if Stewart’s GF pulled tongue with Westby outside of the Reub, he might want to swim the 200 IM.

      But yes, that is up to Stewart (and assistant to the head coach Hagen, and head coach Carlson) to decide.

    • #33873
      silentp
      Member

      I agree, i don’t see him in the IM because he’d be at best 3rd and no better. It would also knock down guys who GAC will have swim the IM, just to get points. I think it may have a bigger negative impact than positive in the end.

      In the 500, i think the race between Hanson and Stewart could be epic, probably resulting in a conference meet record, perhaps someone will even break 4:30, although i wouldn’t bet on it.

    • #33874

      Skylar Davis has the best in season time. It’s a three way race. The 500 and the 1650 will be the best races to watch this year.

      @silentp wrote:

      I agree, i don’t see him in the IM because he’d be at best 3rd and no better. It would also knock down guys who GAC will have swim the IM, just to get points. I think it may have a bigger negative impact than positive in the end.

      In the 500, i think the race between Hanson and Stewart could be epic, probably resulting in a conference meet record, perhaps someone will even break 4:30, although i wouldn’t bet on it.

    • #33875
      swim5599
      Member

      What did Hanson go last year 4:32? If the race is going to be as close as people think, there could be a couple of guys in that range. That would be fun to watch

    • #33876

      I think that Joe Anderson will break up the 1-2-3 by the Gusties in the 500 this year.

    • #33877

      @Procrastinator wrote:

      I think that Joe Anderson will break up the 1-2-3 by the Gusties in the 500 this year.

      Any reason you think this or is it just a Hunch? I have a hard time seeing him Catch Hanson, Stewart, and Davis.

    • #33878

      Who wants the over under on this?

      Sylar Davis 4:27
      Ben Hanson 4:30
      Matt Stewart 4:31
      Joe Anderson 4:34

      @Its all an ACT wrote:

      @Procrastinator wrote:

      I think that Joe Anderson will break up the 1-2-3 by the Gusties in the 500 this year.

      Any reason you think this or is it just a Hunch? I have a hard time seeing him Catch Hanson, Stewart, and Davis.

    • #33879
      grammar
      Member

      Matt Stewart 4:29
      Ben Hanson 4:31
      Joe Anderson 4:35
      Skylar Davis 4:36

    • #33880
      grammar
      Member

      I forgot the pork:

      Greg Pokorski 4:39

    • #33881
      swim5599
      Member

      4 guys under 4:35, but no one under 4:30

    • #33882

      Hanson was 4:36 freshman year and 4:32 last year. Since distance guys seem to get better with age (much like a good High Life), I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he goes 4:28 this year.

      Hanson goes 4:28
      Sky-Dave goes 4:29
      Stewart goes 4:31
      Anderson 4:33

      I think Hanson takes the 500, and Sky-Dave takes the mile.

      I wasn’t a distance guy, but will having such a close 3 to 4-way race allow for more drafting and faster all around times?

    • #33883

      Skylar Davis has been a 4:34 already this year. You think he will add 2 seconds with a taper? Perhaps with Assistant to the Assistant to the Head Coach Andy Hagen, Garrison White at the helm. But it’s unlikely.

      @grammar wrote:

      Matt Stewart 4:29
      Ben Hanson 4:31
      Joe Anderson 4:35
      Skylar Davis 4:36

    • #33884

      @swim5599 wrote:

      4 guys under 4:35, but no one under 4:30

      I think this is a little closer to what its going to be like. I do not see anyone being under 4:30. Its possible if they all push each other. I do agree that this is going to be the best race of the Conference meet and probably the fastest 500 field in conference history, in relation to depth.

    • #33885
      Eladron
      Member

      @Mac of the MIAC wrote:

      Skylar Davis has been a 4:34 already this year. You think he will add 2 seconds with a taper?

      Skylar was a 4:38.72 at Carthage, when has he been a 4:34?

    • #33886

      He has never been a 4:34. Mac of the Miac must be confusing his dreams with reality.

    • #33887

      there is no way Gustavus makes it a 6th straight conference victory. there are more people have a sub par season than having a good season, while everyone at st. olaf is having a great season. of course hanson is having another superb year, along with stewart, davis and amundson. but there is also major assets to the team like Hagemeyer and Wakefield, who had a good meet this weekend vs. Carlton but havent swam fast earlier, so they are ify. there is also Cuevas who has yet to become the swimmer everyone thought he could be in college, his 200 free is where is was at last year, but his 200 fly is about 3 seconds slower than last year, and his 500… well its 12 seconds slower than last year at this point in the season. i dont know if he is a headcase or what is going on but i dont see him swimming his times from last year. except for maybe the 200 free. GAC also, once again has a big hole in the breastrokes, and it looks the same in the 200 back.

      adam thomas is back from australia. he is getting back into the shape he was at freshman and sophmore year. he’ll be a major help. anderson is having a strong season, as is koch. basically up and down the lineup you see everyone swimming out of there minds. especially their freshman, they are going to have a big impact on the meet. plus they have the top diver in the MIAC

      i believe MIAC ’07 is going to be a very exciting meet. but at the end i see no way GAC repeats, and STO will once again reign as champions.

    • #33888

      @wakeboarder540 wrote:

      there is no way Gustavus makes it a 6th straight conference victory. there are more people have a sub par season than having a good season, while everyone at st. olaf is having a great season.

      No way? That is a pretty Bold statement! You have been pointing out some of the top swimmers, but as it has been mentioned before, it is Gustavus Depth, the 10- through 17 guys that make the biggest difference. Example, Koch is having a great season and has a great chance to win the 50 and 100 free’s, that is 40 points, but even if Hagemeyer and Amundson some how manage to go 7-8, in both (which they will not, if neither wins, they will go 2-3), they still out score Olaf 46-40. That was one of the big differences in the Dual meet, where winning is everything. Olaf does have a big advantage in the Breast Strokes, 200 back and diving, but Gustavus’s depth in the free’s (all of them, I think it is safe to say GAC will out score Olaf), relays (Gustavus is the front runner in three of the five, and if they take second in the other 2, they out score Olaf). I would venture to say in both Fly’s Gustavus will out score Olaf (Westby will win, but Gustavus just has more fliers, particullary in the 200). Prime example of Gustavus depth vs. Olaf. Olaf has some outstanding distance swimmers, GAC has some weakness in the breast, but if GAC goes 1-2-3 in the 500 free, that is equal to Olaf going 1-2-3, in the Breast, no matter which way you score it. Same with the Mile if GAC goes 1-2, that nullifies if OLAF goes 1-2 in the 200 breast (if Marshall swims the 200 breast I don’t see Olaf going 1-2, if he does the 1650, GAC will probably still go 1-2) There will be some fast swimming at the top, conference records will be set, but this meet will not be decided by those swimmers, the hero’s of this meet will be those 10-17 swimmers, the ones who sneak in either the top 8 or 16 when they should not be there. With this, I think that GAC has the edge and they will pull out the conference victory (Olaf will finish higher at Nationals).

    • #33889

      I stand corrected.

      @Eladron wrote:

      @Mac of the MIAC wrote:

      Skylar Davis has been a 4:34 already this year. You think he will add 2 seconds with a taper?

      Skylar was a 4:38.72 at Carthage, when has he been a 4:34?

    • #33890
      silentp
      Member

      @wakeboarder540 wrote:

      but there is also major assets to the team like Hagemeyer and Wakefield, who had a good meet this weekend vs. Carlton but havent swam fast earlier, so they are ify.

      Hagemeyer is ify? You have got to be kidding me.

      Just because the Olaf guys went PRs in the dual against Gustavus, doesn’t mean they’ll be victorious in February.

    • #33891

      Without looking it up and doing an extensive study, it usually seems like Ole guys drop less time from their seed at conference… while teams like Carleton, SJU, and GAC drop more. I don’t know if that is because Ole guys taper for any of the meets in season, or Carleton guys are generally hairier than average, or GAC guys all wear jammers, or Johnnies all eat high carb diets at the Refer, or what?

      In the words of GAC great Kevin O’Laughlin “Bigger guys usually taper better than skinny guys.” Keep in mind Hagemeyer is on his Fantasy team.

    • #33892

      @Chapel Partner wrote:

      Carleton guys are generally hairier than average

      This has always been true, used to be true of the womens team as well.

      @Chapel Partner wrote:

      “Bigger guys usually taper better than skinny guys.”

      This explains why Assistant to the head coach Andy Hagen always tapered so well.

    • #33893
      swim5599
      Member

      I was really impressed with AMundson’s 21.2 50 lead off in the Free relay, after he swam the 1000 and 500. I am guessing we could have seen about 20.9 if he was fresh for that race. He looks like he will have another big year

    • #33894
      The15mMark
      Member

      @swim5599 wrote:

      I was really impressed with AMundson’s 21.2 50 lead off in the Free relay, after he swam the 1000 and 500. I am guessing we could have seen about 20.9 if he was fresh for that race. He looks like he will have another big year

      Impressive indeed. Too bade he didn’t have a hundredth in him, could’ve gotten his B-cut.

    • #33895
      splitmaster
      Member

      Great meet from the Gusties, I knew they had a great shot to be on the top 10 as I stated on my original post from January but 5th is great.
      Good job from all GAC Swimmers, St. Olaf, Marshall and Tapia.
      Great representation of MIAC.

    • #33896
      swim5599
      Member

      Amundson had a huge meet and of course so did Stewart.

    • #33897
      splitmaster
      Member

      Just a quick count but I think MIAC received 12 or 13 All American honors.
      How does that compare to previous years?
      As for GAC if it wasn’t for the DQ, all of the 9 Swimmers would have gotten the honors. Seven out of Nine, not bad.

    • #33898
      Tiger2
      Member

      Take a look at the first 20 or 30 posts on this subject. I think it is hilarious how almost all of our predictions are so totally wrong!
      Ah but next season, we will all make new predictions with the same blind conviction.
      Good fun!

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