Graduation Point Loses at Conference

Forums Conferences Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference Graduation Point Loses at Conference

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    • #12739

      I found myself with some extra time on my hands and decided to see how many points were lost on the Olaf and Gustavus side of things due to graduation alone. When I have more time, I’ll throw in Carleton, St. Johns, and St. Thomas.

      For now, here’s what I’ve got:

      Gustavus


      Swimmer Event Place Pts

      Hagemeyer 50 Free 1 20
      100 Free 1 (tie) 18.5
      100 Back 1 20
      Total: 58.5

      Amundson 50 Free 2 17
      100 Free 1 (tie) 18.5
      200 Free 3 16
      Total: 51.5

      Waylander 400 IM 8 11
      100 Back 5 14
      200 Back 2 17
      Total: 42

      De Leeuw 100 Breast 13 4
      200 Breast 11 6
      Total: 10

      Howard 3m Dive 13 4
      1m Dive 15 2
      Total: 6

      Olaf


      Swimmer Event Place Pts

      Kukla 200 IM 3 16
      100 Back 2 17
      200 Back 1 20
      Total: 53

      Wareham 200 IM 5 14
      100 Breast 2 17
      200 Breast 1 20
      Total: 51

      Anderson 500 Free 3 16
      400 IM 2 17
      1650 Free 3 16
      Total: 49

      Thomas 400 IM 6 13
      100 Breast 7 12
      200 Breast 4 15
      Total: 40

      Lorentzen 3m Dive 1 20
      1m Dive 1 20
      Total: 40

      Douros 3m Dive 4 15
      1m Dive 5 14
      Total: 29

      Price 3m Dive 12 5
      1m Dive 14 3
      Total: 8

      Based on graduation alone, Gustavus is losing 168 points compared with 270 for St. Olaf.

      Seeing as how Olaf only won by 5 points last year and based on graduation alone, Gustavus should be in a good place for MIACs this year.

    • #39629

      @Rustie Gustie wrote:

      Based on graduation alone, Gustavus is losing 168 points compared with 270 for St. Olaf.

      Seeing as how Olaf only won by 5 points last year and based on graduation alone, Gustavus should be in a good place for MIACs this year.

      That is a pretty big gap. On the other hand: @OutsideSmoker27 wrote:

      It’s hard to predict how the overall meet scores will change based solely on lost RAG points (relegation, attrition, and graduation points, yes I made that term up). There are too many other things in play: 1) new points from freshmen and from upperclassmen who swam exhibition the year before, 2) returning swimmers scoring more (or fewer) points than they did the year before, 3) changes in relay wins or relay DQs (not to mention the “intangibles” of the meet itself: who’s swimming well, who’s in top health, who’s got the momentum on their side at any given point).

      I wonder how many times can I re-post exactly the same thing…………

    • #39630

      @OutsideSmoker27 wrote:

      It’s hard to predict how the overall meet scores will change based solely on lost RAG points (relegation, attrition, and graduation points, yes I made that term up).

      Very true, OutsideSMoker27. I thought about adding a caveat at the end of my post to say just that, but decided that most people would probably decide it for themselves. I compiled this less for statistical and analytical purposes and more for my own amusement and out of boredom. Thought I’d share it to see what people have to say. My post by no means that the scores will change by exactly those amounts. In fact, outside of this thread, in this forum, on this site; my post has basically no relevance to anything!

    • #39631

      @Rustie Gustie wrote:

      In fact, outside of this thread, in this forum, on this site; my post has basically no relevance to anything!

      I think that makes two of us. 😆

    • #39632

      Rustie Gustie,

      This is clear and tangible analysis. Well done. Anyone (outsidePoleSmoker) who says it isn’t is foolish.

      What’s the best way to determine who will win conference before the actual meet? Well, subtract lost points, and add gained points. Seems reasonable to me. My analysis has GAC’s class slightly better than Olafs, so GAC must have the clear advantage going into conference. Let’s not forget that Olaf is also losing CJ Wagner and Mike Jessop. That’s another 77 pts, BTW.

      @OutsideSmoker27 wrote:

      @Rustie Gustie wrote:

      Based on graduation alone, Gustavus is losing 168 points compared with 270 for St. Olaf.

      Seeing as how Olaf only won by 5 points last year and based on graduation alone, Gustavus should be in a good place for MIACs this year.

      That is a pretty big gap. On the other hand: @OutsideSmoker27 wrote:

      It’s hard to predict how the overall meet scores will change based solely on lost RAG points (relegation, attrition, and graduation points, yes I made that term up). There are too many other things in play: 1) new points from freshmen and from upperclassmen who swam exhibition the year before, 2) returning swimmers scoring more (or fewer) points than they did the year before, 3) changes in relay wins or relay DQs (not to mention the “intangibles” of the meet itself: who’s swimming well, who’s in top health, who’s got the momentum on their side at any given point).

      I wonder how many times can I re-post exactly the same thing…………

    • #39633

      @Mac of the MIAC wrote:

      This is clear and tangible analysis. Well done.

      Why thank you, Mac.

      @Mac of the MIAC wrote:

      My analysis has GAC’s class slightly better than Olafs …

      Can you post some numbers and/or names to go along with this? If you’ve done a freshman analysis and I’ve done a graduation analysis, we should be set!

      @Mac of the MIAC wrote:

      Let’s not forget that Olaf is also losing CJ Wagner and Mike Jessop. That’s another 77 pts, BTW.

      Has this been for sure confirmed? If so, the additional points lost on the Olaf side are duly noted.

    • #39634

      @Rustie Gustie wrote:

      @Mac of the MIAC wrote:

      My analysis has GAC’s class slightly better than Olafs …

      Can you post some numbers and/or names to go along with this? If you’ve done a freshman analysis and I’ve done a graduation analysis, we should be set!

      My bad… I just remembered that you made a post of conference points by freshman a while back. Forget I ever said this.

    • #39635

      Mac has Gustavus gaining 191 points and Olaf gaining 175 points from freshman at MIACs ’08. I have found that Gustavus lost 168 points and Olaf lost 270 points to graduation. With a straight up balance of outgoing and incoming points, this comes out to net changes of +23 points and -95 points for Gustavus and Olaf, respectively.

      Taking the score of last year’s MIAC meet (STO 843.5, GAC 838.5), this would result in a final score of STO 748.5 – GAC 861.5, provided that the other teams score exactly what they did last year. Since this is extremely unlikely, I’ll give the score a 40 point pad. Even with this pad, Gustavus should win handily.

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