Fact or Fiction….Natl Runnerup

This one is Fact… Emory is taking heavy losses and really built on depth. Denison has the top end talent and brings in a nice, well rounded class to compliment the current sqad nicely and fill holes. They have the studs to win 2 relays and compete in 2 others, plus score in almost every event. They won’t challenge Kenyon but they will swim Swim SWIM to another 2nd place!

I have to disagree with you here Lee. This is fiction. Denison will not repeat as National Runnerup. They do return more points than anyone in the country with the exception of Kenyon but I think that they need to be weary of Emory. The Eagles have built a powerhouse training environment in those longer events and now all of the sudden we’re seeing more and more development from the sprints. I know the loss of Hake looms large but until Denison diversifies their strengths I see Emory and picking up the occasional points here and there, as well as diving to climb their way all the way to a second place finish.

Great stuff. I’ve almost got a mind to create a 2nd profile as Mark May to respond in a very sophisticated, articulate manner.

That is a fact, to say that Denison needs to diversify their strengths is ridiculous. Emory is the team that probably needs to diversify a little more. You can’t become a nat championship team with 5 guys in the top 16 of the 500 and 400 Im, you have to be able to sprint. ANd yes Emory with the addition of Sabir came a long way this past year, but denison will be second no question.

I don’t know about “no question”, but i do think Denison will most likely get 2nd. That being said, we will have to see if they put it together for NCAAs after what will most likely be an exciting NCACs. I could see them winning NCACs next year and if they have a let down after that, they could see trouble from Emory/Hopkins. Hopkins is a young team that will improve and likely bring in a good crop of fast freshmen.

I also should have posted under the name Rowdy Gaines to appear more authoritative, but Denison will not get 2nd. Emory’s sophomores gained a lot of experience from last year’s NCAAs. Also, the incoming crop of freshman will back up an experienced set of upperclassmen, helping to ease the loss of Hake, B.Burke and Klein, the diver.

I really do not think that experience plays that big of a role in how a team places. I think talent, great coaching and enough depth will be the difference. Nelson Westby did not have any experience at the D3 meet and look what he did.

@swim5599 wrote:

I really do not think that experience plays that big of a role in how a team places. I think talent, great coaching and enough depth will be the difference. Nelson Westby did not have any experience at the D3 meet and look what he did.

this is what experience does.

Event 3 Men 200 Yard IM
===============================================================================
Name Year School Prelims Finals Points
===============================================================================
Championship Final
1 Duda, Andrejs SR Kenyon 1:50.07 1:48.64 20
23.30 51.36 (28.06) 1:22.78 (31.42) 1:48.64 (25.86)
2 Brennion, Travis SR Kenyon 1:51.36 1:52.19 17
24.84 52.89 (28.05) 1:25.57 (32.68) 1:52.19 (26.62)
3 Treat, Ethan JR Amherst 1:52.65 1:52.70 16
24.50 52.61 (28.11) 1:25.33 (32.72) 1:52.70 (27.37)
4 Dobelbower, Tyler SR Wheaton (Il) 1:52.27 1:52.79 15
24.56 51.97 (27.41) 1:24.89 (32.92) 1:52.79 (27.90)
5 Carpenter, Jay SO U.S.M.M.A. 1:52.21 1:52.97 14
23.98 52.57 (28.59) 1:25.39 (32.82) 1:52.97 (27.58)
6 Dehart, David SR Kenyon 1:52.34 1:53.35 13
24.24 52.88 (28.64) 1:26.81 (33.93) 1:53.35 (26.54)
7 Cunningham, Will SR Williams 1:52.25 1:53.39 12
24.13 52.62 (28.49) 1:27.49 (34.87) 1:53.39 (25.90)
8 Burke, Brandon SR Emory 1:52.72 1:56.61 11
25.24 54.36 (29.12) 1:28.54 (34.18) 1:56.61 (28.07)
Consolation Final
9 Westby, Nelson FR St. Olaf 1:52.93 1:51.42 9
23.97 53.53 (29.56) 1:25.36 (31.83) 1:51.42 (26.06)
10 Gosselar, Joseph JR Kenyon 1:53.45 1:53.22 7
25.22 55.65 (30.43) 1:26.65 (31.00) 1:53.22 (26.57)
11 Ulrich, Adam JR Denison 1:53.92 1:53.44 6
24.60 52.45 (27.85) 1:26.54 (34.09) 1:53.44 (26.90)
12 Roos, Thomas JR Emory 1:52.90 1:53.62 5
24.20 52.94 (28.74) 1:26.36 (33.42) 1:53.62 (27.26)
13 Marschall, Ted FR Carleton 1:52.85 1:53.66 4
25.02 53.74 (28.72) 1:26.78 (33.04) 1:53.66 (26.88)
14 Burke, Cary SO Emory 1:54.18 1:54.30 3
25.08 55.05 (29.97) 1:28.62 (33.57) 1:54.30 (25.68)
15 Kim, Ryan (Ik-Jun) SO Johns Hopkins 1:53.63 1:54.83 2
25.46 53.74 (28.28) 1:27.74 (34.00) 1:54.83 (27.09)
16 Brown, Harrison FR Emory 1:53.54 1:54.90 1
23.74 52.30 (28.56) 1:26.92 (34.62) 1:54.90 (27.98)

If you qualify for the ncaa’s as a freshmen, it would be safe to say that most of those guys probably went to Juniors or a major sectional meet the summer before or that winter. That being said they have experience being at big meets.

Juniors and Sectionals are not on the same level as NCAAs, in my opinion. There are 3 heats at night for finals, making it not all that difficult to get back. Also, Juniors is a completely different competition entirely. Sure everyone is there to race, but boys are racing boys. NCAAs is boys racing grown men in certain instances. The intimidation factor will always be there for most first timers (obvious exception being Nelson Westby) which is why I still contend that experience plays a huge role in success.

Ok but there have been numerous first timers that have been really successful. Josh Boss broke 2 national records at his first ncaa meet. And the list goes on. Maybe it is just the top tier guys that are successful their first year, but I do not think experience plays that big of a role.

If you have been to a pressure packed meet at some point previous to college, chances are you can handle the pressure at NCAA’s. ANyone that ever competed in the Illinois High School State Meet can probably testify to that.

Experience can be helpful, but the lack of it may not hurt you as badly as people think

I don’t think you two are necessarily arguing the same topic. There is a difference between talent and experience. While YES, I certainly think experience helps, being talented like Westby is very different. One may argue that with experience he would have actually swum faster. Ex) His talent is what got him there but his lack of experience is why he didn’t final in the 200 IM despite posting one of the nations 8 fastest times… or something silly along those lines.

D3 swimming can’t help where and when the talent comes in and showers which events. But it’s exciting when those things do happen.

@facenorth wrote:

Ex) His talent is what got him there but his lack of experience is why he didn’t final in the 200 IM despite posting one of the nations 8 fastest times… or something silly along those lines.

hence my example 😀

As a freshmen Reed Boon went a 1:51 in the prelims of the 200 IM, and was seeded first going into finals. He went a 1:55 at night (!), and finished 8th. Who knows why it happeneded. The boys against men argument could have some merit though.

I might add that another guy in the 200 IM, Jay Carpenter, had a horrible NCAA his rookie year. I think he even lost his military ID. That kind of stuff seems to happen MORE often to freshmen than upper classmen. Of course it does not happen 100% of the time though.

A lot of it can be contributed to maturity. Taking better care of yourself between conference and Nationals, getting your sleep at Nationals, the day before and resting in between. This is where experience comes in because sometimes freshmen and first time national swimmers don’t get it. Some swimmer think of the meet as vacation first, not that they are there for a national meet. They just assume they will do well.

Taking better care of yourself between conference and Nationals, getting your sleep at Nationals, the day before and resting in between. This is where experience comes in because sometimes freshmen and first time national swimmers don’t get it.

I really like that take. Looking back on when I would sleep, when I would eat, how to warm up and warm down, I definitely knew more about how to swim in a meet by the end of my 4 years than I did at the beginning. However, if you asked me to justify that, to point to how I think I did better with the 4 years under my belt, I’d have trouble pointing to any particular thing.

Here is an argument to consider. At some point, ever boy’s body goes through changes, which can mean some significant time drops. While college isn’t puberty, a more serious weight program can mean different muscular needs at a meet. I was a hell of a lot stronger my Sr. year than I was as a frosh, and if I hadn’t picked up lots of tricks for warm down, rest, and keeping my energy levels up, I think I would have been in trouble. Maybe maturity is knowing how to manage your bigger stronger college body over the course of a three day meet. After all, when we point to people being “immature” aren’t we usually pointing to a race where somebody just didn’t have it or didn’t know how to use it? Tom Rushton is another example, his freshman year he was 8th in the 500, and just barely squeaked into finals. He managed to win, but the fact of the matter is, if one of the guys right behind him is a tiny bit faster, he goes down in history as one of the greatest examples of a freshman blowing it in the morning. Winning from the outside lanes is a bad ass thing to do, but if you are good enough to win, you probably shouldn’t be in the outside lanes in the first place (except for in the 50).

There are many factors besides talent and experience that can affect the big meet performance: illness and injury of course, but I think a huge factor is team dynamics.
Looking back on the Nationals experiences of myself and three of my friends, (all female, all of us swam at Natonals four years) our sophomore-year performances were without a doubt the most disappointing for all of us. I believe as a team, we had suffered a number of major disappointments throughout the season, and this probably affected our confidence level and changed our expectations. Perhaps a coach who understands the female psyche a little more could have helped us overcome this.
Anyway by our junior year, we were back on track and we had a much better Nationals experience. And senior year was even better.

But, to get back on topic, I do think Denison will get second this year. Peterson is as good a swimmer as DIII has right now, and Ulrich has gotten better every year. Bubb is another finalist in the mile, and if he can pick up consol points in the 500 or some other event, Denison will again move in the right direction. Byers is good on so many levels, he would have a spot in any relay on any team in the country. Curtis had a pretty darn good first year, and I think he can do better as a sophmore. To do well at nationals without a full boat, which I don’t think DU will have, you need really good third and fourth legs on your free relays, and Gessinger fills that roll better than just about anybody in the nation (although I don’t want to knock Inacker).
I’m not saying that there are no questions for Denison. The biggest one is breastroke, without ABC, I’m not sure who is going to swim that leg on the relays.
Emory doesn’t have the same sort of hole in their butterfly. Both Denison is going to score about half its points on relays, so it cannot afford a bad showing in the MRs. Emory, I think, will have more bodies at the meet, and get more of their points from consols, but without a diver at the meet, I don’t think they will be able to catch DU.

I am inclined to pick Denison as my runner up as well, however I would like to see what the freshmen will do, so I say DU right now, but I have to see some results first.

Well, I won’t be 100% sure about my pick until just after the 400 free relay. Why wait? This is the preseason! Speculate already!

And I haven’t really heard much about Hopkins here. I think DU is going to come in second, but is anybody out there willing to make a case for those Blue Jays?

When i said I wanted to see results I was talking about from the their first meet, I was not saying I want to see what they would do at the end of the year.

Well, if you want a little more info (and I do mean a little) the DU team previews are up.

http://www.denison.edu/athletics/varsitysports/sw/men.html

Looks like they are going to be running out freshmen breastrokers.

Yeah any news on how fast any of these freshmen breaststrokers are. If they come in going under 1:00 they could be a huge help for Denison

Axelrod isn’t close to 1:00
Geer was a 1:00.6
Gillette ???

Ok so they are not guys who come in going 58 plus. Good thing Greg parini is there head coach then.

I’d say Emory did a nice job of bringing in another talented group.

Kevin Yamada: 22.7, 48.3, 1:46.0
53.3, 1:54.0 BK
57.9, 2:07.4 Br
52.7, 1:54.3 Fly
1:53.5, 4:09 IM

Brad Sloan: 22.1, 49.3

Neil Ringer: 4:55, 9:59
54.6, 1:54.6 bk….2:11 LCM –> 1:51.9ish converted (depending on what you use for conversions)
1:56 fly
1:58, 4:10 IM

John Petroff
50.8, 1:52.1 fly…57.5 LCM –> 49.6ish conversion
1:57 IM

Ken Minturn: 1:43.3, 4:40
54.9, 1:58 bk
53 fly
1:57 IM

Tom DiMarco: 22.3, 47.0, 1:45.0,
53.3 fly
1:54.6 IM

Jason Cross: 22.5, 48.0, 1:46.0
2:02 fly

Billy Anderson:
53.6, 1:59 2 fly

Good class, I definitly think Emory got a better group than DU. How many of those guys do you think will make it to the show? How many roster spots does Emory have for nationals before they have to start leaving qualifiers home?

It is a very good class and gives them a couple studs plus some depth guys… but my fear is that they just added more of the same types of guys they already have… only time will tell though.

That is a pretty decent class though, my money is still on DU .

I mean….those guys are ok. There is really only one (maybe two) guys that could be a contributor on relays (the 50. Fly guy and the 143 200 guy) and nobody that looks to make individual national cuts, unless I missed something. Unless there is something I’m missing (and please tell me if there is) when you say Emory got a better class than DU, I don’t think either of those classes are impressive beyond getting points at a Conference meet.
Also, if you Swim5599 are talking about breastrokers…59 breastrokers are a dime a dozen. You need like a 56 breastroker to really make an impact.

@iswimalottayards wrote:

You need like a 56 breastroker to really make an impact.

😀

Iswim wrote:

I mean….those guys are ok.

Huh? I hope that was scarcasm because I would set the over/under on freshman to score individually at Nats at 3.5. Three (Petroff, Yamada, Ringer) should without a problem and two more (Minturn, DiMarco) have a strong possibility of doing so. And both of the guys that are nats bubble in my opinion can help on relays.

2:11 LCM backstroke is around 1:52…..that’ll score
57 breaststroke will score
1:52 fly will score

1:54 IM was invited last year, not to mention the help on relays a flat start 47.0 could provide a year later
4:40 in the 500 is not too shabby either. The 500 will be one of the tougher events to score in as 15 of 16 scorers return but the 1:43 plus a year of training could help make that 800 free relay more competitive, at the very least to get on it at Emory.

I think it’s a great class. I predict it’s the second best class in the country after all the dust settles and not far behind Kenyon’s.

AFLAC

59 breaststrokers are only a dime a dozen if they are college juniors, if they are incoming freshmen, it is reasonable to think with a good coach that you could be 58 low or 57 high by the end of your freshmen year. Which means you would be getting close to making an impact. Besides how many 56 breaststrokers have ever come in going that fast I can’t think of many especially considering the nat record in that event was 56.0 just 7 years ago.

@Aflac wrote:

Iswim wrote:

I mean….those guys are ok.

Huh? I hope that was scarcasm because I would set the over/under on freshman to score individually at Nats at 3.5. Three (Petroff, Yamada, Ringer) should without a problem and two more (Minturn, DiMarco) have a strong possibility of doing so. And both of the guys that are nats bubble in my opinion can help on relays.

2:11 LCM backstroke is around 1:52…..that’ll score
57 breaststroke will score
1:52 fly will score

1:54 IM was invited last year, not to mention the help on relays a flat start 47.0 could provide a year later
4:40 in the 500 is not too shabby either. The 500 will be one of the tougher events to score in as 15 of 16 scorers return but the 1:43 plus a year of training could help make that 800 free relay more competitive, at the very least to get on it at Emory.

I think it’s a great class. I predict it’s the second best class in the country after all the dust settles and not far behind Kenyon’s.

AFLAC

what will yamada score in without a problem? 2 fly? maybe i dont pay attention to the 2 fly too much. what scored last year? thats actually a legit question. i have no idea.

Yeah, 1:52 2 fly will score. Drop a second and he’ll final.

Seriously, by your own measure (iswim) of how fast you need to be coming into college, a future national champ wouldn’t have been an impact recuit… in fact, not even CLOSE. Ease up – the idea is to get better in college as you (and I both) well know.

BTW – the Emory recruit with the 50.8 100 fly – 57.5 LCM fly does not convert to 49.6 – not even close, more like 50 high – 51 low. I swam with a guy who was 55.6? LCM, and still hasn’t broken 50. For freestyle 57.5 converts to around 50.0.

@RhymeAndReason wrote:

BTW – the Emory recruit with the 50.8 100 fly – 57.5 LCM fly does not convert to 49.6 – not even close, more like 50 high – 51 low. I swam with a guy who was 55.6? LCM, and still hasn’t broken 50. For freestyle 57.5 converts to around 50.0.

In high school, my buddies and I decided there is no such thing as a converted time (from LCM to SCY) because there are too many outlying factors. To this day i don’t put much weight in it, unless it’s the only thing to measure a swimmer on. I do put some credibility into the conversion from 25m to 25y however.

My best time in 50M Free = 24.37
Aaron Cole went a 24.1 at Olympic Trials after swimming with Aubrun for a year.

Hmmm.

My best time in yards is only 21.86…

Like I said before about conversations, take them with a grain of salt. But the collegeswimming.com converter claims that a 57.5 100M fly converts to 49.26. Hardly the 50.+ or 51 low that Rhyme speaks of. Granted there is no right way to convert times but nonetheless…

Then the swimming world conversion must be wrong. It says 57.50 for the 100 meter bufferfly converts to 50.89 for the 100 yard butterfly. I think rhyme is right on this one.
http://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/results/conversions.asp

What about Hopkins for runner up? I don’t think it’s out of the question considering how close they got to Emory at NCAAs last year (7 points) and weren’t that far behind Denison either. They lose Hamilton, Harris AND a Kim, but with the way Hopkins has been known to recruit, I wouldn’t keep them out of the equation either.

Anyone know about what they have coming in?

ANyone think Test has a shot to win the 100 this year? He went 45.1 this past year.

@swim5599 wrote:

ANyone think Test has a shot to win the 100 this year? He went 45.1 this past year.

no, courage is a junior this year and was pulling away from the field the last 25. I don’t see anyone catching him in the next two years
@da11483 wrote:

Then the swimming world conversion must be wrong. It says 57.50 for the 100 meter bufferfly converts to 50.89 for the 100 yard butterfly. I think rhyme is right on this one.
http://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/results/conversions.asp

According to the NCAA rulebook (page 135 of the book, 136 of the file), the conversion factor for the 100 LCM fly is .885. That makes the 57.50 a 50.89 in yards, so swimming world is apparently correct.

I’m with SilentP on this whole conversion topic. While Napoleon makes a great argument, Aflac appears to also be correct in his findings. LCM conversions can give you an idea but there is no such thing as a universal conversion that will work for everyone, far too many variables.

Getting back to the topic at hand, I don’t know how anyone can be upset with bringing in a 50. flyer. Rhyme is right, I’m not sure what ISwim is looking for or what he could consider a good recruit, but Emory brought in a couple studs.

Perhaps you need a scale to rate incomers – besides it will give everyone something to debate until the action starts. You can even debate the names

so here goes

DIETY – Top 3 finisher with times coming in
STUD – Times make finals
SCORER – Makes Banana heat
CONTRIBUTOR – Makes B cuts / adds to relay value
CANDIDATE – Not yet B cuts but expected to with year in college program
PROJECT – All the rest

No way Test has a shot? What did he go last year in that race 45.7? That means he dropped 6 tenths. Why would he not have a shot. Courage is the favorite but somebody else has to be in the conversation I would think

Excuse me Test 45.7 in 2005, and 45.1 2006. Just so there is no confusion

Test dropped from 45.7 to 45.1. Courage dropped from 45.5 to 44.5. Courage dropped more. He is now further ahead of Test than Test dropped in one year. As TheAnswer posted in the MIAA forum, once you get that fast, it is harder to keep dropping time that fast. With that said, that is a huge margin to make up. I don’t believe it will happen.

@N Dynamite wrote:

Test dropped from 45.7 to 45.1. Courage dropped from 45.5 to 44.5. Courage dropped more. He is now further ahead of Test than Test dropped in one year. As TheAnswer posted in the MIAA forum, once you get that fast, it is harder to keep dropping time that fast. With that said, that is a huge margin to make up. I don’t believe it will happen.

I agree that it’s a huge margin to make up and that Courage is the favorite, but my problem with all of this talk on the 100 free is that everyone seems to think it is over now. There is a reason we race the races and Courage is the favorite, maybe even the overwhelming favorite, but I am not counting Test, or a few other choice swimmers out of it just yet.

[quote=”silentp There is a reason we race the races and Courage is the favorite, maybe even the overwhelming favorite, but I am not counting Test, or a few other choice swimmers out of it just yet.[/quote]

Well said. e.g. US olympic basketball team or look at barbaro – many things can happen it is still a very mental sport

Agreed, things can happen – test beat him their freshman year, so it could happen again. However, that race has a lot less question than any of the other free races. There’s no clear favorite in the 50, the 500 has 19 of the top 20 swimmers returning from last year, etc. Why focus on the 100 when there are so many other events with more question marks to talk about.

I only brought up the 100 because somebody asked if Johns Hopkins had a shot at 2nd. It just made me think of Test and how important he is to that team. Either way I think he could be 44.6 or so, and if Courage is off, he would have a shot at it. Courage had a great 100 no doubt about it, he also had some good splits, but his 200 was off a bit. So it is a possibility that someone could beat him. My best guess would be Test

Courage doesn’t lose the 100 free that often. Only once in the past 3 seasons of swimming (going back to HS), and that was of course in Holland. I wouldn’t be suprised if he goes under 44 this upcoming season, either at the Grove City pool, where he needs Trunk to push him a bit, or at Houston where Test needs to give him some good competition. I strongly believe that Test will be under 45 by the end of this season.

COurage is going under 44 this year? I was thinking that might be a little to much. Maybe a shot to go 44.2 or so.

test will definitely give courage a good race, as long as he
a) doesn’t lose his goggles, or
b) doesn’t lose his warm ups
before the race.

-also- look out for Colin Kleinguetl in the 2 fly (and other events) this year. he’s becoming a very versatile swimmer

@lost at sea wrote:

test will definitely give courage a good race, as long as he
a) doesn’t loose his goggles, or
b) doesn’t loose his warm ups
before the race.

I’m not exactly sure what that means, but it gives me a bad feeling that we might be looking at a Battle of the Klutzes (sp?) in the 100 free.

Lost at Sea, if you are who I think you are, I could have sworn you are a better speller than that.

@NCACDork wrote:

Lost at Sea, if you are who I think you are, I could have sworn you are a better speller than that.

that is pretty funny so what i am hearing is “Test will test Courage but will Courage have courage to pass the t(T)est”

yeesh…yeah hey i’m taking a year off… I’m allowed to make stupid mistakes. haha

i won the spelling bee in 5th grade but ever since then my skills have gone to shit.

I’ll think of more excuses later. 🙂

😀 This one is Fact… Emory is taking heavy losses and really built on depth. Denison has the top end talent and brings in a nice, well rounded class to compliment the current sqad nicely and fill holes. They have the studs to win 2 relays and compete in 2 others, plus score in almost every event. They won’t challenge Kenyon but they will swim Swim SWIM to another 2nd place! 😀