Could Denison make a run?

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    • #12147
      99 Red
      Member

      Last year it took about 500 points to win at nationals, so I’m going to take that as a target number. If Byers, Peterson, Ulrich, Curtis and Geissenger all average 4th place points in their individual swims (15) that would be 225 points. If they win the 800 free relay, and the other relays average out to 4th place points, that would be 160 points. That means, to get to 500, they need to find a way to get around 115 points from their other guys. Bubb will score some points even in this years really deep mile, but besides that the rest of the points will have to come from some new people stepping up. And that is just to be in the race.

    • #32870

      Yes, but I think your other relays will do better than average 4th – I think top 3 for all of them, with the 400 freestyle winning, the 2 free definately could win, and the medleys will be solidly up there. Could get another 15-20 points there. If Kenyon’s relays drop, they won’t score 500. Kenyon did get a (un)surpringly good class though… better than I had perviously thought…

    • #32871

      I dont see how Denison can be in the top 4 in teh Medleys. Right now you are looking at a 58.5 BR split at best. The other tops teams will be sporting 55s and 56s. Thats a big hole, ask Williams.

    • #32872

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      I dont see how Denison can be in the top 4 in teh Medleys. Right now you are looking at a 58.5 BR split at best. The other tops teams will be sporting 55s and 56s. Thats a big hole, ask Williams.

      Is it really 58.5? Didn’t realize it was that bad. Well, they have stud backstroker, flyer, and whoever is hot anchoring. Maybe Peterson can swim a 57…

    • #32873

      @RhymeAndReason wrote:

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      I dont see how Denison can be in the top 4 in teh Medleys. Right now you are looking at a 58.5 BR split at best. The other tops teams will be sporting 55s and 56s. Thats a big hole, ask Williams.

      Is it really 58.5? Didn’t realize it was that bad. Well, they have stud backstroker, flyer, and whoever is hot anchoring. Maybe Peterson can swim a 57…

      Well last night their split was 59.0 with their best flat start 59.5. So I dont see much more than 58.5 possible. But I have been wrong before.

    • #32874
      The Treat
      Member

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      @RhymeAndReason wrote:

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      I dont see how Denison can be in the top 4 in teh Medleys. Right now you are looking at a 58.5 BR split at best. The other tops teams will be sporting 55s and 56s. Thats a big hole, ask Williams.

      Is it really 58.5? Didn’t realize it was that bad. Well, they have stud backstroker, flyer, and whoever is hot anchoring. Maybe Peterson can swim a 57…

      Well last night their split was 59.0 with their best flat start 59.5. So I dont see much more than 58.5 possible. But I have been wrong before.

      what happened to their breaststroker from last year. i didnt think he was a senior… peterson was 26 in his 50 breast split, and he has the endurance for freestyle, just maybe not the breast. they are completely different muscles, but if he’s training for the 400 IM, no reason why his breast cant be fast.

      do denisons divers have a chance of scoring?

    • #32875
      The Treat
      Member

      @The Treat wrote:

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      @RhymeAndReason wrote:

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      I dont see how Denison can be in the top 4 in teh Medleys. Right now you are looking at a 58.5 BR split at best. The other tops teams will be sporting 55s and 56s. Thats a big hole, ask Williams.

      Is it really 58.5? Didn’t realize it was that bad. Well, they have stud backstroker, flyer, and whoever is hot anchoring. Maybe Peterson can swim a 57…

      Well last night their split was 59.0 with their best flat start 59.5. So I dont see much more than 58.5 possible. But I have been wrong before.

      what happened to their breaststroker from last year. i didnt think he was a senior… peterson was 26 in his 50 breast split, and he has the endurance for freestyle, just maybe not the breast. they are completely different muscles, but if he’s training for the 400 IM, no reason why his breast cant be fast.

      do denisons divers have a chance of scoring?

      is their 200 MR fastest so far? what was hopkins? i think they have a chance at top 4 in the 200 MR. they were 3rd last year and every single team in the top 8 lost a significant senior on the relay.

      i also answered my other questions, yes ABC (their breaststroker) was a senior.

    • #32876
      swimmer54367
      Member

      They’re best breaststroker is Brabson at 59.26. He dropped 1.5 seconds to go that. You figure he drops another second or more between now and nationals and that’s a 57 high on a relay. Also Byrce Axelrad has only been swimming for a year and he dropped 2 seconds in his 100 breast at the meet to go 1:00.68. It will be interesting to see if he can get down to a 58 this year too.

    • #32877
      silentp
      Member

      @The Treat wrote:

      @The Treat wrote:

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      @RhymeAndReason wrote:

      @JHUBreaststroke06 wrote:

      I dont see how Denison can be in the top 4 in teh Medleys. Right now you are looking at a 58.5 BR split at best. The other tops teams will be sporting 55s and 56s. Thats a big hole, ask Williams.

      Is it really 58.5? Didn’t realize it was that bad. Well, they have stud backstroker, flyer, and whoever is hot anchoring. Maybe Peterson can swim a 57…

      Well last night their split was 59.0 with their best flat start 59.5. So I dont see much more than 58.5 possible. But I have been wrong before.

      what happened to their breaststroker from last year. i didnt think he was a senior… peterson was 26 in his 50 breast split, and he has the endurance for freestyle, just maybe not the breast. they are completely different muscles, but if he’s training for the 400 IM, no reason why his breast cant be fast.

      do denisons divers have a chance of scoring?

      is their 200 MR fastest so far? what was hopkins? i think they have a chance at top 4 in the 200 MR. they were 3rd last year and every single team in the top 8 lost a significant senior on the relay.

      i also answered my other questions, yes ABC (their breaststroker) was a senior.

      200 medley relay goes:
      Denison
      Kzoo
      St. Olaf

      but that’s just right now

    • #32878

      USA Swimming shows times for Axelrad from age 16 through 19.

    • #32879

      @silentp wrote:

      200 medley relay goes:
      Denison
      Kzoo
      St. Olaf

      but that’s just right now

      – Kzoo hasnt been faster than 136? The forum on top times has them at 10th.

    • #32880
      DonCheadle
      Member

      Kzoo: 1:33.27 yesterday

    • #32881
      Duck
      Member

      If Peterson swims the breast leg in the 400 MR that makes him all the more valuable in Fantasy Swimming. I say, go for it young man!

    • #32882
      The Treat
      Member

      @DonCheadle wrote:

      Kzoo: 1:33.27 yesterday

      thats a great time for them. congrats guys.

    • #32883
      swim5599
      Member

      I would think that Peterson would go the breaststroke legs on both medley’s. They may not win the 200 MR but they have 1:32 mid in them. What did Byers split 21.6 man that guy is a freakin stud. They need a little more front end speed out of Ulrich in the 200 MR, and they could make a run at it.

      Byers is probably the fav to win the 100 fly right now isn’t he. He did not even swim it last year. I have to believe he is going 2 events and 5 relays again.

    • #32884

      @swim5599 wrote:

      I would think that Peterson would go the breaststroke legs on both medley’s. They may not win the 200 MR but they have 1:32 mid in them. What did Byers split 21.6 man that guy is a freakin stud. They need a little more front end speed out of Ulrich in the 200 MR, and they could make a run at it.

      Byers is probably the fav to win the 100 fly right now isn’t he. He did not even swim it last year. I have to believe he is going 2 events and 5 relays again.

      He split 48.8 last year in the 1fl. Also went 50.4? freshman year in the 1back. He would be better off in the 100 back points wise, because one screw up or a slightly off meet/swim and he misses finals in the 50/100 free. One thing I know forsure – he is going to be a lot harder to draft in fantasy nats this year. : )

    • #32885
      99 Red
      Member

      I don’t know about using Byers in a 2/5 set up. Sure you could use him on all the relays, but your giving up at least 10 points taking him out of an individual event. Even if he is the difference between first and second, that isn’t worth it.
      So here is a question, do you guys think DU could win the 800 w/o Byers? They have a freshman doing a 1:43 at this point.

    • #32886
      DonCheadle
      Member

      @99 Red wrote:

      I don’t know about using Byers in a 2/5 set up. Sure you could use him on all the relays, but your giving up at least 10 points taking him out of an individual event. Even if he is the difference between first and second, that isn’t worth it.
      So here is a question, do you guys think DU could win the 800 w/o Byers? They have a freshman doing a 1:43 at this point.

      Exactly what I was thinking. Leave him off the 800. Yes they win it without him. No record, but oh well…

    • #32887
      silentp
      Member

      @DonCheadle wrote:

      @99 Red wrote:

      I don’t know about using Byers in a 2/5 set up. Sure you could use him on all the relays, but your giving up at least 10 points taking him out of an individual event. Even if he is the difference between first and second, that isn’t worth it.
      So here is a question, do you guys think DU could win the 800 w/o Byers? They have a freshman doing a 1:43 at this point.

      Exactly what I was thinking. Leave him off the 800. Yes they win it without him. No record, but oh well…

      Whether or not Byers swims that will tell us whether Parini is going for the title, or to swim fast, maybe set a record.

    • #32888
      Derek
      Member

      Without figuring out any points or being nearly as sophisticated as the rest of you with this conversation, I think that if Denison wins the meet, they also get the record in the 800FR, and if they get the record, they win the meet. Why? I don’t think that Parini will sacrifice either of these two things for the other. This means that Denison only could win the meet if all the stars align, and if all the stars align then they also get the record.

    • #32889
      N Dynamite
      Member

      @Derek wrote:

      Without figuring out any points or being nearly as sophisticated as the rest of you with this conversation, I think that if Denison wins the meet, they also get the record in the 800FR, and if they get the record, they win the meet. Why? I don’t think that Parini will sacrifice either of these two things for the other. This means that Denison only could win the meet if all the stars align, and if all the stars align then they also get the record.

      Along the same lines, I was thinking that the emotional high of breaking the record may carry them to the title if they’re close. A lot of it depends on what approach they take towards it – will missing the record disappoint them enough that they lose the meet because they lose their edge?

      My opinion is – you go for the record for what it could do for your attitude. It’s very similar to Kenyon I think – they always go after it, even if it means they might DQ – you don’t win championships being afraid to lose, you go after your opportunities.

    • #32890
      swim5599
      Member

      Does Byers double up the 100 fly and 100 back this year? 20.7 and 45.8 are great times, but there is no gurantee that he makes it back to the big final with those. But if he goes 49.3, and 50.5 in the 100 fly and back respectively he is in the top 8, just about guranteed. Now add to that the fact that he might have to swim both the MR and 800 Fr, and he might be flat exhausted for Saturday. Either way, I will be interested to see what events he swims and if he swims 5 relays. I have to believe if they have a freshmen that went 1:43 already, he could go 1:41 by the end of the year, if that is the case they would not need Byers to win the 800 FR

      Wouldn’t that be something if Denison won this thing.

    • #32891
      99 Red
      Member

      I know that 1) scoring the meet out at this point in the year really isn’t going to mean anything at all and 2) I probably made math errors in putting it together, but, after scoring out the top times I got:

      Emory – 555 (I gave them credit for the relay that they jumped, so they got those points)
      Denison – 499
      Kenyon – 471
      Hopkins – 363

      If somebody is swimming to many events, I didn’t catch it. This sort of results wasn’t what I was expecting. Emory certainly looks better than I thought they would.

    • #32892
      neswim
      Member

      Nice piece of work…as you point out the numbers are distorted since we don’t have the equivalent NECAC times for “mid-season” given their later start. Emory and Kenyon have bunches of entries in several events that where the scoring might be exaggerated (200 IM for Emory and 500/200 fly for Kenyon for example).

      As everyone on this thread has suggested the fight for the national championship will be intense AND it will include Emory.

      All in all, its my opinion, not supported by the facts currently, that Kenyon will prevail in a very close contest. I admit this position can only be supported by believe that Kenyon’s improvement from conference to nationals will surpass that of Denison and Emory. In other words, they will need another dose of the Kenyon magic to prevail.

      I’d attempt to score out the women’s meet but it doesn’t appear that close so I’m not sure it worth the effort.

    • #32893
      neswim
      Member

      @99 Red wrote:

      I know that 1) scoring the meet out at this point in the year really isn’t going to mean anything at all and 2) I probably made math errors in putting it together, but, after scoring out the top times I got:

      Emory – 555 (I gave them credit for the relay that they jumped, so they got those points)
      Denison – 499
      Kenyon – 471
      Hopkins – 363

      If somebody is swimming to many events, I didn’t catch it. This sort of results wasn’t what I was expecting. Emory certainly looks better than I thought they would.

      I checked the calculations and come up with slightly different results, with all the caveats noted above.

      My method was to go strictly off the NCAA list…eliminate duplicate entries for the same swimmer.

      NB: I also made sure that no swimmer would score in more than three indivial events….eliminating those events that ocurred on the same day and selecting the one that the swimmer would earn more points. This changed the results significantly:

      1) Emory 497
      2) Kenyon 485
      3) Denison 438

      I think the order of finish is not terribly accurate. If you look carefully at the rosters they are pretty evenly matched and the ultimate outcome so close that key factor will be second half performance. At this point, I can only conclude that this is three team race and it will be very close.

      BTW, if Kenyon should retain the title it will require a dramatic comeback on the third day where they are stacked in several events. Should make for some a very exciting third night of action in Houston.

    • #32894
      Anonymous
      Member

      How are you scoring out the relays? Seems to me that the relays will be a major factor and are a bit more predictable than individual events.

    • #32895
      neswim
      Member

      @bigdogracing wrote:

      How are you scoring out the relays? Seems to me that the relays will be a major factor and are a bit more predictable than individual events.

      I scored them based on the rankings as they appeared on the most recent NCAA list….not sure that they are more predictable than individual events. For example, who would have predicted a Kenyon victory in the 200 free based on last year’s list in December?

      As noted above, I think the value in this exercise is to determine if Denison or Emory had a legitimate shot at winning this year. The numbers suggest the meet will be very close and that any one of the three teams has a legitimate shot at a national championship.

      Perhaps this discussion should morph into one that takes into account the three team nature of the competition?

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