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Any interest in speculating about the women’s 400 Medley relay?
Only these four teams have posted a “B” cut a better:
400 MEDLEY RELAY 3:54.03 / 4:00.48
3:52.33 Kenyon (Barer, Connors, Ertel, Carlton) 12/2/06
3:53.60 Denison (Cassell, Faingold, Dain, Zaleski) 12/2/06
3:55.59 Emory (Pasternak, Flader, Psaris, Westby) 12/2/06
3:59.70 Hope (Reest, Piester, Smith, Vogelzang)I am pretty sure that several NESCAC teams will make the cut, but the best time to date is 4:02+. Amherst, Middlebury, and Williams have good chances [Colby could sneak in] with their swims at NESCAC Champiuonships next week.
Wash U and JHU, I think, will make the invitee list? Calvin? Any others?
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I think Colby has a strong chance to sneak in nescacfan. I expect Kelly Norsworthy to be stellar as usual, which will of course help them out. What will be different than last year?
Potdevin, their backstroke, was 1:01 on this relay last year and this year has been under 1 min already. If they can go 59-1:02 on the front end and reach the midpoint at 2:02., they should be able to go in the mid 3:50s because of two things:
They have two strong senior butterflyers that are proven taper swimmers. Either Given or Warlaumont would give them a split under 1 min that they need. Lets pencil in a 59.5 here.
They have a strong freshmen freestyle in Danielle Carlson that is likely to be able to give them a 54.0, if not her, Chilcote could step up again. All of this puts them at about 3:55. Haven’t peaked at the women’s qualifying guide but I am assuming this is good enough. Then again, I’m biased
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Colbybr:
Potdevin’s improvement during the season in the 100 back was why I thought they had a chance to get in under the line. Norsworthy has proven to me she is back from her “break” and her strong 100 breast behind Potdevin should have Colby in a nice position at NESCAC’s to provide the adrenaline needed to power the fly and free legs to qualify for nationals.
I have added below to your Colby split estimates what I expect from the other 3 NESCAC contenders.. Add a couple of seconds to the total of each because I “rounded down”.
Colby 59 102 59 54
Amherst 56, 107, 58, 52.
Midddlebury 59, 107, 55, 53
Williams 59, 107, 57, 53 -
Nescacfan,
Interesting that when you add up your expected splits you get:
Colby = 3:54
Amherst = 3:53
Middlebury = 3:54
Williams = 3:56And somehow Colby only just sneaks in. Plus, I realize that there are tenths involved. Regardless, I think that the smaller schools in NESCAC sometimes get overlooked because of the “the big three.”
But I’m biased too….
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Colby’s times were from Colbybr–not from me. I would have had Norsworthy a couple of seconds slower at a 1:04 for this race because she is still coming back from a semester away. I had the fly at 1:00 and free at 54. That’s was my the basis for my “sneaking in” comment. Griz, I thought you would give me some credit for recognizing that Colby has a chance to get under the line. Their best time, to date, is a 4:10. I know they will swim a “B” time, but I am not sure it will be as fast as Colbybr thinks.
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I agree that it may not be as fast as Colbybr thinks. However, I do think Norsworthy will be faster than 1:04, and I think that Potdevin will be a little faster than 59. The last two legs will benefit by having faster swimmers catching them. I think it is more realistic to say 3:56-7.
Also, shouldn’t the Amherst freestyle be faster than a 52? If it is Stern, don’t you think it will be 50.?
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Yeah don’t count out Norsworthy. She is going to go into nescacs with basically the same untapered time as last year. I think that her talent is undeniable and she will be surprisingly fast at Nescacs this year. I think 3:56 is probably what we will see. Last year these girls swam a 200 medley that had no buisness being faster than the previous years relay on pure adrenaline. I think they will do well this year.
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It’s really interesting that the women’s medleys were smoking fast for the past two years, but are a lot slower this year. It looks to be mainly because women’s breaststroke is overall very slow as well.
Commenting on the Wash U women, they had four great legs for the past two years: Nordbrock 57/58, Boettger/MacArthur 1:05/1:06, Deneweth 55, and Scott 52. They replaced Scott with Hawk, who can probably split a 50., but MacArthur quit and Deneweth had to end her swimming career due to her back. Their replacements can probably go 1:09. and 58., which would give that relay, at best, about a 3:56. With Nordbrock and Hawk most likely not tapering for conference, I can see about a 3:58. It’ll be close to making it, and if it does, it will be huge for a team that would only be sending 5 girls to nationals otherwise.
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