Bubble Watch… 400 Medley Relay

Thanks Rece, exciting to be back and talking about my favorite relay. You say Kzoo is in eh? They have the men, but can they put it together? I’d assume so, but I can’t can’t put them on the tier with those other teams.

On the bubble for the 400 MR is a crazy place to be. Every team has a major weakness, heck, even the best relays all have a big weakness. A few of the teams to look for are:

Hope – They got the freshmen, but still lack a breastroker
Williams – They went 3:31 at a dual, maybe they should join the ranks of the top 6 there
W&L – This team has come on strong, if they taper their guys, watch out
CMU – Young and distance oriented, this may be too short!
Wash U – They lost a lot, but they want to reload
UWSP – Great breastroker plus Chase Gross puts them in the hunt
Middlebury – Back and wanting to join the big dance
Gustavus – Breastroke kills them, but the other legs are fast
Carthage – Only had 1 senior on the relay that got them there, but he was a good one
NYU – Good freshmen plus returning studs help this relay
Westminster – Quick midseason surprised us all

Now i gotta pick my four based on what we know:
Williams
CMU
Hope
Middlebury

Kirk might disagree, but then again, when was the last time he was right?

I can’t say I’m surprised that Lee and I disagree. But first of all, Kalamazoo College belongs in that big boy heat. I don’t care what you say about Rece and how he should run everything by us first, he’s right. I will also go as far as to say they have 2+ seconds on the field at the 200.

Anyhow, to the real topic. This relay is a little bit easier than the 200 Free to pick through.

Your next four in are MIT, Williams, Mellon and Point. Yes, all have their weakness but also have enough to get the job done. Each team has a leader and a go to guy but I do think there is a sizeable gap between the first two and second two. Krzymenski or however you spell it and Gross will need to step up to give their relays a chance.

On the bubble you’ve got Washington and Lee. While they way they have been swimming indicates this should be a no brainer, they still need to put it together after a great front end from Ginder. Middlebuy also looks to join the party and Collier gives them a great chance to do it. The WashU Bears will be back in the thick of things again in this event. If they’re swimming well, chalk it up, if not it’s a long session. They’ll be in good enough shape at the 300.

Partypoopers are the group that just misses it. To me there are four teams in this category. Gustavus leads us off, Hagemeyer and Amundson give them a shot but you can’t just bookend a medley to get to nats. Grove City tries to prove they can do more than just sprint and they can but making this relay will take more than they have. Hope tries hard with their freshman crop but falls short and the Trunk led Westminster group is also on the wrong side of the line.

Bubble watch:

Maybe a reach, but take a look at SUNY Geneseo. Last year 3:26.49 made it, I think they could be close to that.

Back: Szarma is 53 mid to high every year

Breast: Kallio has a GREAT relay start, and has been 58.08 flat start(unrested a few weeks ago)split 57 low before
Fly: Norton split 51 low in prelims last year, didn’t swim it at finals
Free: Zolna always a monster on relays, split 45.9 anchoring this last year.

bk-53.50
br-56.50
fly-51.0
free-45.8

That equals 3:26.80. They will have to put it together all at once, and there is no room for error, but a time like that at least gets some attention. SUNYACs is next weekend, so they might be in the money for a weeka at least.

Ok I am a Wash U fan, and I think Leckey is a stud, but he can only swim one length of their medley and I think it will be the backstroke length. They had a guy go 59.3 in December in the breaststroke, and they have a 51 flyer, and I am assuming 46 mid on the end.

Leckey 53.0
Breaststroker 58.5
Flyer 51.0
Freestyler 46.5
3:28 probably won’t do it. But they get a few tenths here or there and it could be closer.

I think Williams and Middlebury are locks.

Of the Western PA teams I would favor Westminster over CMU in the 400MR, as a team in the bubble. Trunk and Krzeminski are both senior All-Americans, and more or less cancel each other out. However Lehberger is swimming well mid-season, and looks to be the difference for Westminster. Here’s how they might break out their times:

52.5 – Smith
57.8 – Lehberger
51.5 – Simpson
44.8 – Trunk
3:26.6

Granted they are still on the bubble, but I would not count them out yet. We’ll see what happens at their conference meet next Thursday night.

I will also go as far as to say they have 2+ seconds on the field at the 200.

That’s going to take a 1:43-1:44 to be ahead of Hopkins’ 50.0/56.2 by 2+ seconds. I know Kzoo is very good up front, but are we talking 49.8/54.2? That’s a tall order.

Yeah I would think that Hopkins should have the lead, and of course Test will be flying on the end, so the question remains will the Hopkins flyer give them enough to win? He was 50.8 in December.

@swim5599 wrote:

Yeah I would think that Hopkins should have the lead,

I disagree, i think Kzoo may be leading, just not by 2 seconds (if they don’t have a bad meet, they are, after all, freshmen).

If Hopkins goes, 50.0 and 56.2 (which are obviously not out of the question), Kzoo would need to go 50.5 and 55.6 to have the lead. 50.5 would be about the same drop for Ellis as it would be for Thomas, and the 55.6 would only be a tenth of a second drop. It will be very close and Kzoo may actually have the lead after the fly on Hopkins as well, although it would not be much of one. The freestyle (no offense to my boys at K) would not even be close and could be 2.5-3 seconds difference.

Kenyon may have the lead going into the freestyle, but i’ll take Test over the kenyon sprinter (Christian?) if it’s a second or less.

If we’re talking winners, let’s not count out Emory, with the way Yamada has been swimming the 2nd half of the season, plus Callam has been on a tear, so they will be in the hunt without a weakness.

SUNY Geneso is a great call, those SUNY teams always surprise us.

Since we’ve exhausted the topic of front halves, I thought I would switch it up and talk about back halves. Olaf has by far the best back half with westby and koch. If their front half can keep them in the race, they will surely be near the top coming into the finish.

@iknowall wrote:

Since we’ve exhausted the topic of front halves, I thought I would switch it up and talk about back halves. Olaf has by far the best back half with westby and koch. If their front half can keep them in the race, they will surely be near the top coming into the finish.

49.5 and 45.8 will be hard to stay in front of. Yet, its going to be hard to say that Olaf has the best back half “by far”. Look at the Medley Relays from Williams Kenyon Emory and JHU.

Williams will show up with Scott and Gallucci who will split faster than 49.8 and 46.5 which is just plus 1 off Olaf.

Emory will have at least a 50.7 and a 45.0 combining any one of their flyers but definitely will anchor with Callam.

Kenyon will definitely bring more than there 49.6 Harris and their 46.8 Christian.

Parent and Test will bring along a 51.3 and 45.1 (at least) along with their JHU boys. Parent has been 49 in high school, lets hope he shows up something better.

If Parent and Westby hit the water at the same time I’m going with Test to touch the wall before Koch

Hey, if we are on the subject of the second two lengths, maybe we should mention good old DU? I mean, they do have the fastest 100 fly in the nation as of today, and a free leg in the top ten (Oh, I know it seems like that might be the same guy, but check it out, DU has another guy in the 100 free top 10). And you know what, they have a pretty darn good backstroker. And to top that off, they have the number 2 time in the nation right now. Its true, they need to drop half a second a leg to catch hopkins, but why can’t they do that?

@99 Red wrote:

Hey, if we are on the subject of the second two lengths, maybe we should mention good old DU? I mean, they do have the fastest 100 fly in the nation as of today, and a free leg in the top ten (Oh, I know it seems like that might be the same guy, but check it out, DU has another guy in the 100 free top 10). And you know what, they have a pretty darn good backstroker. And to top that off, they have the number 2 time in the nation right now. Its true, they need to drop half a second a leg to catch hopkins, but why can’t they do that?

the problem is they need a half second to catch hopkins, who might not even be in the lead. also, theres nothing stopping them with their backstroke leg either (thomas). like most medley events, i think its gonna come down to the breaststroke leg. most schools have the 49-50 in the fly, 45-6 in the free, 1-2 in the back, but a solid 56 low maybe even a 55 high will be a huge difference from everyone else at a 58.

Ha many 55 highs are we going to see? Kenyon probably. With Joey g of Davis, and maybe Hopkins but that is it. Westby will probably go the fly leg.

As for Harris fly split he actually split 48.8 last year, and I look for a half a second from that at least. So Kenyon has the most dominant middle half of the race.

Denison’s back half could look like this 48.5 and 44.8. That will be tough to contend with as well. This is going to be a great year for the 400 MR

Who do you see going 44.8?

Geissinger was 45.1 in December. I see no reason why he could not be 44.8

@swim5599 wrote:

Ha many 55 highs are we going to see? Kenyon probably. With Joey g of Davis, and maybe Hopkins but that is it. Westby will probably go the fly leg.

As for Harris fly split he actually split 48.8 last year, and I look for a half a second from that at least. So Kenyon has the most dominant middle half of the race.

Denison’s back half could look like this 48.5 and 44.8. That will be tough to contend with as well. This is going to be a great year for the 400 MR

youre not gonna see that many 55 highs, thats why i said its probably gonna come down to the breaststroke leg and whoever has the TF to do it.

@weedwacker2000 wrote:

Of the Western PA teams I would favor Westminster over CMU in the 400MR, as a team in the bubble.

How prophetic. Westminster goes 3:26.0 in the morning, and CMU suffers a tough DQ. But they would have been 3:26.9, which would have won, but might not be under the line. I hope they time trial it or get the short medley in, it would be a shame to see such a solid relay miss out because of a jump.

Kalamazoo goes 3:24 last night they are in

@last year’s psych sheet wrote:

EVENT: 6 MEN’s 400 Yard MEDLEY RELAY

NCAA RECORD 3:16.70 KENYON 3/18/04
QUALIFYING FOR EVENT 3:26.49

ORDER ID NAME YEAR TEAM SEED TIME

1) ( 282) JOHNS HOPKINS 3:23.19
2) ( 306) KENYON 3:23.28
3) ( 410) ST. OLAF 3:24.39
4) ( 182) DENISON 3:24.47
5) ( 498) WILLIAMS 3:24.64
6) ( 340) TCNJ 3:25.24
7) ( 206) EMORY 3:25.53
8) ( 473) WHEATON (IL) 3:25.63
9) ( 152) CARTHAGE 3:26.01
10) ( 515) UW STEVENS POINT 3:26.49

---

11) ( 421) TUFTS 3:28.15
12) ( 353) NEW YORK UNIVERSITY 3:28.89
12) ( 232) GROVE CITY 3:28.89
14) ( 243) GUSTAVUS ADOLPHUS 3:30.03
15) ( 448) WASHINGTON & LEE 3:30.69
16) ( 456) WASHINGTON UNIV. 3:33.72

So – with one week of conference championships down and 2 to go, here’s what we have:
Hopkins – already in
Kenyon – 3:25.85 – should be fast enough – they’ll have who they want there anyway
St. Olaf – on deck – don’t see them having much trouble getting in
Denison – December time is good enough
Williams – two weeks away – shouldn’t have much trouble
TCNJ – Need to drop about 8 seconds to have a shot – but they have the guns and have done it before
Emory – 3:25.75 – same as Kenyon
Wheaton – not going to make it
Carthage – not going to make it
UWSP – they should be close – they lost Anderson, but still have Gensler
Tufts – they didn’t qualify either medley last year and had two seniors swim this one at Nats. Doubtful they’ll get in this year.
NYU, GCC, Wash U on the wrong side of the line

So the question is – I see 7, possibly 8 coming back of the 10 who got in last year. CMU will time trial this weekend – they’ll be close. Westminster’s 3:26.08 would have gotten in last year but it might not be enough this year. Middlebury is back and are swimming well. MIT is on the horizon – will they return to their 2005 form?

I’m setting the over/under at 3:26.08 – Westminster is either the last team in or first team out…

@N Dynamite wrote:

I’m setting the over/under at 3:26.08 – Westminster is either the last team in or first team out…

I might take the under, depending on how many relays are taken. We still have Middlebury, Williams and MIT to swim and right now Westminster is 9th. If they take 10 like last year, I don’t think Westminster has a shot. In fact, if they take 10, Emory could be in trouble, although i doubt they have anyone in only based on that relay. If MIT, Williams and MIT all live up to the hype they could all be 3:25-low or better, meaning Emory and TCNJ sit out. That relay will be very quick this year.

This one surprised me the most. I think the slugs were the ones that I didn’t see making the cut for this one, which would have meant Westminster would be 8th with the three still to go. Now that they’re 9th I think it’s doubtful they get in. I can’t believe we’re looking at a possible second drop from last year’s QT. The medley relays are insane this year.