Bubble Watch… 200 Medley Relay

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    • #12279
      Rece Davis

      Alright folks we are back and ready to tackle the 200 Medley Relay. This event seems pretty open and may have the most depth of any event out there.

      To break the bubble, we’ll have Kirk and Lee tell you who they’ve got and let you all discuss the rest.

      For starters, I think we can all assume the following teams have already punched their ticket to Houston:
      St. Olaf

      So for the last 6 picks, take it away Lee.

    • #34605
      Lee Corso

      Rece you said it, this is the deepest relay in terms of who could get in, although it might not be as quick as that relay later in the day. Either way, we’ve got excitement in the air for this one. I like those 4 automatics, but where are Kenyon and Emory?

      I realize they may not do the full rest, but I am not sure it matters. I will start off by adding 2 to the 4 and despite Kirk going to Ohio State, even he can figure out that addition… we’ve got 6 baby, but that leaves only 4 spots up for grabs.

      Four teams have been under 1:36 (other than those guys) this year and one of them did it in season, Middlebury. I hate to see a team have troubles with the administration but they seem to be back and on a mission. Middle bury is my first pick.

      Of the other 3, I only see 1 tapering for their conference meet, and that’s Wheaton. That taper won’t be enough Rece, better luck next year.

      Most may not remember this, but the College of New Jersey and no, not Rutgers, was ranked 1st going into NCAAs last year. They didn’t win it, but Bubble Watch isn’t about winners. They graduate a good one, but only one, so I’ll take them with my next spot.

      Gustavus got a spot last year and the same numbersas a Huggins’ coached Cinci basketball team, and that’s a goose egg. It took a 19.8 split from Amundson, but the way that boy is swimming, he might be faster this year! Look for them in my 3rd spot.

      With 1 spots left I had to look long and hard, so I took a nap, because unlike the Quarterback here, I am getting up there… but when I woke up it hit me: MIT. They are young and fast, with a backstroker who is coming back after probably winning a Nobel Prize or something, he does go to MIT after all.

      That sums it up, now we’ll see where Kirk thinks I messed up…

    • #34606

      When it comes right down to it, Lee is right on, for the most part. Emory and Kenyon even if they don’t come all the way down for UAA’s and NCAC’s, they still have enough to qualify this relay so to me, there are six no schools that are in and a whole bunch fighting for only four spots.

      I have to agree with with the old fella, he actually knows what he’s talking about for a chance.

      My next choice and they might even qualify infront of a couple of the automatic six would be the Engineers at MIT. This relay is their baby and they’ll be going after it.

      I like Middlebury in the eight spot. They’re swimming awful well right now and have three very strong legs without as much of a weakness as most other teams.

      TCNJ is ninth on my depth chart right now. The loss of Swenson hurts but this is a very very capable group. They also brought in freshman Myles O’Connor to fill the Swenson void. While he can’t fill the void completely he will do more than his share to get the relay to the big meet.

      The only place Lee and I differ is with that one remaining team and while as tempting as it is to pick GAC (especially after Hagemeyer and Amundson swam last weekend), I have to take Williams. Maybe I’m picking a name and a program here but those Ephs are tough to beat.

      GAC is my first team out and they’re hoping for the NCAA to take 11 in this event. They might be the 11th taken with the potential of having only 1 relay only swimmer, the NCAA likes that. But which relay does Hagemeyer sit?

      W&L. Close call and really could go. This is where they can really expect McGlaston to shine and make a difference.

      Grove City. Just off the Q time in trying to prove to the rest of the country they can do more than sprint.

    • #34607

      There were actually at least 5 teams under 1:36, and at least two of them did this in season. Grove City was 1:35.5 just a few weeks ago in their dual meet against Westminster. They are currently 8th in the nation without a taper swim-look out for them.

    • #34608
      Chris Knight

      @Kirk Herbstreit wrote:

      W&L. Close call and really could go. This is where they can really expect McGlaston to shine and make a difference.

      Here’s what I see my former teammates doing in this relay:

      Ginder 24.0 (.3 off his best from ’06 NCAAs)
      Hayes 26.5 (Same split as last year’s conference and last chance meets)
      Croushore 22.5 (Split a 23.5 in Marymount’s slow pool w/out warming up)
      McGlaston 20.1 (Split 20.4 at Virginia Tech last weekend)

      I don’t think that’s an overly optimistic time, based on the reasons in parentheses. To me this is the more likely medley for them to qualify.

    • #34609

      Well I just want to throw Wheaton into the mix in this one too. Let’s say they go 24.6
      That is 1:33.8, and that would have qualified last year. They have a shot, but they would need that 24.6 from Jeremy Lederhouse. I believe he has been 24.8 in the past.

    • #34610
      N Dynamite

      @last year’s psych sheet wrote:

      EVENT: 7 MEN’s 200 Yard MEDLEY RELAY

      NCAA RECORD 1:28.75 KENYON 3/16/01


      1) ( 340) TCNJ 1:32.65
      2) ( 498) WILLIAMS 1:32.73
      3) ( 456) WASHINGTON UNIV. 1:32.75
      4) ( 410) ST. OLAF 1:32.91
      5) ( 306) KENYON 1:33.01
      6) ( 282) JOHNS HOPKINS 1:33.17
      7) ( 515) UW STEVENS POINT 1:33.75
      8) ( 243) GUSTAVUS ADOLPHUS 1:33.89
      9) ( 152) CARTHAGE 1:33.96
      10) ( 182) DENISON 1:34.02

      11) ( 473) WHEATON (IL) 1:34.10
      12) ( 206) EMORY 1:34.19
      13) ( 232) GROVE CITY 1:34.62
      14) ( 421) TUFTS 1:34.90
      15) ( 448) WASHINGTON & LEE 1:35.15
      16) ( 353) NEW YORK UNIVERSITY 1:35.38
      17) ( 262) HOPE 1:35.68

      OK, this one is even more interesting than the 400 simply because it’s a shorter distance so the times end up more bunched up, and no one ever swims a 50 flat in the breast, so it’s hard to find what people can really do.

      Here’s what we have:
      TCNJ – been 1:36 already this year and were the top time last year. Let’s assume they’re in
      Williams – two weeks and see – should be good, though.
      Wash U – won’t make it with their time right now. Don’t see them getting in
      Olaf – sitting tied for 3rd and swimming next week – in
      Kenyon – same as 400 – should make it, but does it matter if it doesn’t? it’s a fast enough time to make life difficult on someone else
      JHU – close to the bubble, but their 400 is fast enough. They usually don’t retaper everyone for this time of year.
      UWSP – Same as 400 – can Gensler replace Anderson? This one’s tougher – Gensler gets better as the distance gets longer.
      GAC – They’re in a conference that posts regularly and I don’t see their time in the top times. I don’t think this bodes well.
      Carthage – out
      Denison – in
      Wheaton – out
      Emory – not in, doubt they’ll bother with a last chance, they’ll have who they need anyway
      Grove City – should be in – looks like they can do 50’s of strokes also
      Tufts – very doubtful, but we’ll see in a couple weeks

      That’s 6 returning from the top 10 and 1 new one probably in. That leaves 3 spots. CMU will time trial this one – they could be very close. Middlebury is another who will be in the mix. W&L can sprint – are they a carbon copy of GCC or vice versa? (the answer to that is neither – W&L can do 200’s) Will we see both of those teams here? Is MIT for real?

      This time I’m drawing the line at JHU – 1:33.67 is fast, I just don’t know if it’s fast enough. Hope the Blue Jays don’t have anyone using this as a ticket for the meet – it could be a stressful three weeks.

    • #34611

      GAC has an outside shot because Hagemeyer’s backstroke is on again (50. 2 years ago, slow last year, but was 52 in their last dual) and we all know Amundson will be fast coming home. I think they’ll be sub 1:34, but right now, i’d guess they’ll be under the line, not above.

      Middlebury and MIT will both be above the line in my mind, MIT has a breastroker that will compete for the title come March and are solid all around. Everyone knows the Middlebury story.

      Also, as much as it pains me to say it, I think TCNJ could end up being the top seed going into the meet.

    • #34612

      Current standings:
      200 Medley
      1:32.75 Kalamazoo (2/9 MIAA)
      1:33.02 Denison (12/2, Miami Invite)
      1:33.32 St Olaf (12/2 TYR Invite)
      1:33.32 Grove City (2/9 PAC)
      1:33.61 Kenyon (2/9 NCAC)
      1:33.67 JHU (12/2, Nike Cup)
      1:34.39 Olivet (2/9 MIAA)
      1:34.44 Emory (2/9 UAA)
      1:34.58 Case Western (2/9 UAA)
      1:34.71 Wabash (2/9 NCAC)
      1:34.78 Hope (2/9 MIAA)
      1:35.00 UCSC (2/7 PCSC)
      1:35.29 Wheaton (12/2, Wheaton Invite)
      1:35.34 Chicago (2/9 UAA)
      1:35.63 Westminster (2/9 PAC)
      1:35.66 W&L (12/2, Nike Cup)
      1:35.97 Middlebury (1/27 v Williams)
      1:36.36 Washington (2/9 UAA)
      1:36.50 UWSP (12/2, Wheaton Invite)
      1:36.73 NYU
      1:36.97 TCNJ
      1:37.10 Springfield
      1:37.19 UCSC
      1:37.31 Williams
      1:37.59 CMU

      Based on that list, i’m thinking the cut will be almost identical to last year’s 1:34.04

    • #34613

      I dont know if TNCJ will be up there this year. They lost alot off that relay from last year in the person of Steve Swenson. I dont know if htey have the BRer to replace him.

    • #34614

      Carthage was 1:34.5, but I am not sure that will be enough.

    • #34615

      Last year they took 10 and like the 400 MR, the 200 MR has those same 3 teams sitting there without a full taper swim. Also, since this is the 200 MR, there is more of a chance of other teams being able to put together something solid.

      10th right now is 1:33.72 by USMMA. With the 3 aforementioned teams still to swim, Kenyon, JHU and USMAA are all in jeopardy. Gustavus should feel pretty safe right now (which is good for them because otherwise Hanson is back to being a breastroker).

      I am setting the line at 1:33.61 by Kenyon as the last time taken, which is absolutely crazy because that’s less than a second slower than the 2nd best time in the country right now.

    • #34616

      Olaf has to be the favorite right now, but it is going to be some kind of a slug fest to make the championship final. One off split and some powerful teams could be sitting in the consols

    • #34617
      The Treat

      @swim5599 wrote:

      Olaf has to be the favorite right now, but it is going to be some kind of a slug fest to make the championship final. One off split and some powerful teams could be sitting in the consols

      why does olaf have to be the favorite? i’d say 42 time defending national champion (besides the dq the other year) kenyon is the favorite.

    • #34618

      why wouldn’t they at least be considered the favorites?

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