Biggest Lock

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    • #12942
      99 Red
      Member

      So who do you think is the biggest lock to win at nationals? Feel free to leave a reason why, who is an even bigger lock than anybody on the list, and which one of these you are most sure is wrong.

    • #42765
      Derek
      Member

      Clearly someone from Kenyon in the mile. History is repetitive.

    • #42766
      007
      Member

      @99 Red wrote:

      So who do you think is the biggest lock to win at nationals? Feel free to leave a reason why, who is an even bigger lock than anybody on the list, and which one of these you are most sure is wrong.

      Unfortunately I don’t think JHU can beat Kenyon in the 400 Medley Relay. After back they won’t be down by much with Thomas ahead of Mitchell. On breast whoever Kenyon has do breast will most likely be even or outsplit Fedderly. Fly is the clutch blowout leg for Kenyon with Harris well under 49. Free is an edge to Test if Mitchell is indeed swimming back, but not enough to overtake Kenyon. Also I don’t think Diggs has the 400 IM by any means. Millen, Borland, Lake and Marschall are all within reach, and Diggs was most likely shaved when he swam his 3:57.9. No matter what he doesn’t have it locked up.

      The biggest lock? I’ve got to go with either John Thomas in the 200 back or a Kenyon miler. Thomas has made visible improvements already in both of his backstroke events, which is exciting. The results from December were quite impressive. The Kenyon milers have most likely been unshaved thus far, and although Lake is capable of more than his 15:41 this season, I doubt Diggs is capable of much more. As Derek said, Kenyon’s history is too convincing, and they have at least 4 fast milers this year (assuming Dunn is gone?)

      Why wasn’t Curtis’s 200 free on this list rather than his 500 free?

    • #42767
      99 Red
      Member

      I put his 500 on instead of the 200 because he has a bigger lead on the number 2 guy at this point, and Geissinger can challenge him in the 200 free if he swims it.

      Given the fact that 1 and 2 in the 200 free are both on the same team, I think the 800 FR has to be close to a lock. I’m really impressed with Diggs, and he will be faster in March than he was in December (as will others, true) and he is already looking really good.

    • #42768
      N Dynamite
      Member

      @99 Red wrote:

      Given the fact that 1 and 2 in the 200 free are both on the same team, I think the 800 FR has to be close to a lock. I’m really impressed with Diggs, and he will be faster in March than he was in December (as will others, true) and he is already looking really good.

      Two things:

      First, I don’t think you can assume anyone is going to be faster in March over their December times (unless they swim for Kenyon – weren’t they all faster last year). First, while Diggs has been impressive, he was only .18 faster in the 2 IM at Nationals than his seed. Denison’s 800 FR went 6:39.25 in December, everyone got excited that they were going to break the NCAA record and they went 6:39.44 in March. You just never know when a guy is going to blow something up and never be able to duplicate it. McGlaston is a good example from last year – somehow he went 20.66 in November and his fastest (of 4) 50’s at NCAAs was a 20.71 leading off the 200 FR. Denison went 1:22.00 in December in the 200 FR and everyone said how great that relay would be – it went 1:22.04 in finals. I’m not putting any of these teams or individuals down – you just never know when these weird things are going to happen. Heck, McGlaston could win the 50 this year. I just don’t think you can assume anything right now. All it takes is doing a flip turn at the flags, misjudging a turn because of a bulkhead, a bad relay exchange, a weird slope on the bottom of the pool, more wake as opposed to having open water with a great lead…

      Second, speaking of flipping at the flags – my best lock is on Thomas winning the 100 back. I’m surprised that’s not on the list

    • #42769
      The Treat
      Member

      @N Dynamite wrote:

      @99 Red wrote:

      Given the fact that 1 and 2 in the 200 free are both on the same team, I think the 800 FR has to be close to a lock. I’m really impressed with Diggs, and he will be faster in March than he was in December (as will others, true) and he is already looking really good.

      Two things:

      First, I don’t think you can assume anyone is going to be faster in March over their December times (unless they swim for Kenyon – weren’t they all faster last year). First, while Diggs has been impressive, he was only .18 faster in the 2 IM at Nationals than his seed. Denison’s 800 FR went 6:39.25 in December, everyone got excited that they were going to break the NCAA record and they went 6:39.44 in March. You just never know when a guy is going to blow something up and never be able to duplicate it. McGlaston is a good example from last year – somehow he went 20.66 in November and his fastest (of 4) 50’s at NCAAs was a 20.71 leading off the 200 FR. Denison went 1:22.00 in December in the 200 FR and everyone said how great that relay would be – it went 1:22.04 in finals. I’m not putting any of these teams or individuals down – you just never know when these weird things are going to happen. Heck, McGlaston could win the 50 this year. I just don’t think you can assume anything right now. All it takes is doing a flip turn at the flags, misjudging a turn because of a bulkhead, a bad relay exchange, a weird slope on the bottom of the pool, more wake as opposed to having open water with a great lead…

      Second, speaking of flipping at the flags – my best lock is on Thomas winning the 100 back. I’m surprised that’s not on the list

      i think the 800 FR is the biggest lock. barring any false start, they’ve got it in the bag.

      despite kenyon’s history of winning the mile, they don’t have the top time right now. they don’t even have the top two. history or not, they’re going to have a challenge. i can’t say the same for denison’s 800 FR.

    • #42770
      swim5599
      Member

      I would have to go with the 200 back being a lock. He is the only guy under 1:50, and if I look back I think he is the only guy current under 1:51. I don’t think the 100 back is a lock for him, Mitchell will give him a run for his money.

      IN terms of the 400 MR. I would think that Kenyon is better off having Mitchell on the backstroke leg, and maybe Worthington SPELLING on the end of that thing.

    • #42771
      Low Tide
      Member

      Both Ellis and especially Mitchell dropped a lot more time last year from their midseason taper than Thomas did. Thomas dropped about .3 in his 100 and a second in his 200 (Ellis dropped a full second in his 100). If that is normal for him (too early to tell), he should still have Ellis and Mitchell right there in the 100 back and I expect him to have more of a lock on the 200 back.

      I voted the mile, but now think the 800 FR is the biggest lock.

    • #42772
      99 Red
      Member

      Ellis and Mitchel are why I picked the 200 Back for Thomas instead of the 100. Anybody think this is a bad choice? After all, there are 7 flip turns in a 200…

    • #42773
      silentp
      Member

      @99 Red wrote:

      Ellis and Mitchel are why I picked the 200 Back for Thomas instead of the 100. Anybody think this is a bad choice? After all, there are 7 flip turns in a 200…

      No, don’t let it die! This is the reason he cannot be picked. He doesn’t, so far and he will likely prove me wrong at some point soon, seem to be a finals swimmer. He messed up his turn in the 100 bad enough to not finish and in the 200 he added time to finish slower than Ellis (amongst others). It’s only a couple of examples, but hey, gotta do it when it counts… right Chargers fans (last year)? or Mariners fans (01 right?)?

    • #42774
      007
      Member

      @The Treat wrote:

      @N Dynamite wrote:

      @99 Red wrote:

      despite kenyon’s history of winning the mile, they don’t have the top time right now. they don’t even have the top two. history or not, they’re going to have a challenge. i can’t say the same for denison’s 800 FR.

      They don’t have a top time in the 1650 as of now because they probably weren’t shaved yet except maybe the freshman, unlike Diggs and Lake who I’m guessing were shaved. But I’ll agree that it doesn’t seem possible that anyone can touch Denison in the 800 FR with Geissinger as fast as he is now. No one from Kenyon can touch him, let alone Curtis in the 200. Hopkins might be able to put together an interesting 800 though, but they would have to figure a way to put Test in it. (same with Kenyon and Mitchell)

    • #42775
      N Dynamite
      Member

      Here’s my main issue with voting for the 800 FR – Williams. Williams was second last year (granted, four seconds behind Denison). They also don’t rest until NESCACs so you won’t see a good time on them until February – and even then they dropped five seconds between conference and nationals. We really have no idea what Wampler can do (let alone their frosh D guy). Granted he has to replace Spinelli, but there is potential for the other three to improve. Plus, Denison is two seconds slower than they were last year. Will they be that much faster with Byers? Is either new guy (Sellon or Hetterich) capable of matching Peterson’s 1:39.5 from last year? In my mind that’s enough question marks to think an upset is possible. I know I’m not giving Denison enough credit – they Curtis and Geissinger could drop some time also – but it’s not so much what they can or can’t do as much as we won’t have any idea of what Williams is capable of until much later this season.

    • #42776
      polarbear
      Member

      Williams lost Rob Hannigan for disciplinary reasons for at least the first semester — without him a win would be very tough.

    • #42777

      @007 wrote:

      Diggs was most likely shaved when he swam his 3:57.9.

      I doubt Diggs is capable of much more.

      i wouldn’t be counting out diggs so much. he was no where near being tapered for that swim, same with lake. he is def capable of a lot more when he goes to the dance, and they are both going to be dangerous for kenyon in the mile.

    • #42778
      Cali-man
      Member

      If Keeley is back in shape and ready for nationals, I bet he could make the difference for the 400 MR.

    • #42779
      CaseBrst10
      Member

      @Low Tide wrote:

      Both Ellis and especially Mitchell dropped a lot more time last year from their midseason taper than Thomas did. Thomas dropped about .3 in his 100 and a second in his 200 (Ellis dropped a full second in his 100). If that is normal for him (too early to tell), he should still have Ellis and Mitchell right there in the 100 back and I expect him to have more of a lock on the 200 back.

      I voted the mile, but now think the 800 FR is the biggest lock.

      Ellis had pretty good Time drops in high school…I know this doesn’t mean much but he was 52.0 his senior year in season, and went 50.77 at states.

    • #42780
      swim5599
      Member

      I don’t think there is anyway that Ellis would jump ahead of Mitchell in the 100 back, unless of course Mitchell swims all five relays and the 50 and 100 free.

    • #42781
      Low Tide
      Member

      I don’t think there is anyway that Ellis would jump ahead of Mitchell in the 100 back, unless of course Mitchell swims all five relays and the 50 and 100 free.

      Strong words. I’ll take that action… 2:1 odds? I’ll donate $5 to this site if Mitchell beats Ellis, and you pay $10 if Ellis beats Mitchell? Of course, if Mitchell does not swim it the bet is off.

    • #42782
      swim5599
      Member

      Great deal. I would think that Mitchell would be about 49.2 or so, and Ellis might go 50.1.

    • #42783

      I gotta go with 5599 on this one. And I’m all for donation bets : )

      Did Cheadle ever pay up on that donation bet we had? I can’t even remember what it was about… 200 free relay I think? Hope’s relay? I think he owed Derek like $25.

    • #42784
      DonCheadle
      Member

      @RhymeAndReason wrote:

      I gotta go with 5599 on this one. And I’m all for donation bets : )

      Did Cheadle ever pay up on that donation bet we had? I can’t even remember what it was about… 200 free relay I think? Hope’s relay? I think he owed Derek like $25.

      Derek checks this enough to confirm that I have paid that bet.

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