2006-07

Forums General General 2006-07

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    • #11898
      Chris Knight
      Member

      Prediction: On the strength of an extremely partisan Charlotte crowd, the Generals sweep all events except the 1,000 (due to not entering anyone) and score in excess of 1,000 points. Meet records in all the relays, the 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1650 frees, 200 back, and both IM’s.

      If anybody reads this I’ll be amazed.

    • #29574

      @Chris Knight wrote:

      the Generals sweep all events except the 1,000 (due to not entering anyone)

      If for no other reason than Matej Tomas, I’m gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you on that one. Why not enter anyone in the 1000, though?

      @Chris Knight wrote:

      and score in excess of 1,000 points.

      In a score-to-16-places meet, that would land the Generals somewhere between impressive and dominating. I would guess they’re pretty much that already, but even so, adding 200 points from one year to the next is a pretty tall order.

    • #29575
      Chris Knight
      Member

      Yeah, despite my extreme confidence in my boys, that post was intended to be humorous. Since there were only 2 topics on the BGMC forum all last year I didn’t expect anybody to actually read it. Of course, I would love to see them do all the stuff I “predicted,” and I am sure that they will come close, but Matej and William Muriel are formidable opponents (despite already having all their D2 cuts by February). W&L should have somebody in every event who will make top 3, so who knows…maybe a clean sweep is possible.

      1,000 points was also a stretch, but 900 is doable. After all, last year we deeked our best relay, so we should have had 40 more than we did (apx 860). And we only graduated 92 individual points, so I think 900 is possible. The two parts which I will say weren’t exaggerations at all were the 5 relay records and the partisan Charlotte crowd.

      As for the 1,000, if I were in charge it wouldn’t be in the meet, but since D2 has it at nationals it has to be. But it can only hurt us by tiring out the milers, since D3 doesn’t have it. I don’t expect to see anybody from W&L in it this year.

    • #29576
      Balki
      Member

      Maybe it’s not going to be so easy for them after all.
      William lost all of his events at Invite and is far from A cut, but then again maybe that’s good for them bc he will have to taper for Charlotte.

    • #29577
      Chris Knight
      Member

      If he rests, his events should still be good races. Crook has improved a lot already in the 500. The 200 should be a great event, with Muriel, Diebold, Corcoran, etc. shooting for cuts and even if Crook and Ginder don’t rest you know they’ll be 1:41 or better. As for the 2 fly, I’d have to see an updated top times list but I think Effinger has some work left to do (speaking of which, why no 200 fly?), so he should be fast, and I have no idea what Regnier will go if he doesn’t try to go out in a 52 or whatever he did last year. So I don’t think that resting will allow Muriel to waltz through his 3 races, but it probably does make him an early favorite since Ginder and Crook already have A cuts. Should be exciting.

    • #29578
      Balki
      Member

      Can those 2 freshmen from W&L be a factor in 2 fly? Regnier’s goggles fell off last year in that race.. Do you have any idea what a freshman from wingate going to swim? Looks like he has a lot of options. Breaststroke events will be awesome, Tomas against Ginder and Regnier (if he goes for 100 fly), William’s like we said as well. I don’t know if Tomas will want to switch some events around since Ginder beat him once and Regnier swam under 49 at NAIA last year. It will be one hell of a Conference meet I know that.

    • #29579

      This BGMC meet seems like it could be really exciting, I would have to agree one of the most competitive race will surely be in both the 100 & 200 Fly events. I think the upperhand will for sure go to Matej if he swims the 100 fly, the Effinger kid is a kid to watch though he has put up some consitent times so far this year.

      I think W & L will rest up there boys but they will look to swim strong and try and find a way to increase that national team size. I think a few relays to watch will surely be the 800 Free, 400 Free this year. There seems to be a nice influx of speed not only from W & L but teams across the board look strong.

      I think Transy has a few good men in the IM & Breast events that will have a strong push and with George at the helm those kids will be ready.

      My opinions clearly lie at the D-III level in this post as I am not so up to speed on the other teams. But I think Rose was a good pickup for the conference as they have some tough kids…and the grapevine tells me they have some big plans for that 800 Free Relay.

    • #29580
      Balki
      Member

      This kid Corcoran is very interesting.. I wonder what he is going to swim.. distance freestyle? breaststroke? IM’s?
      Tomas has the fastest time in 400IM before the invite.. does that mean he might trade that for 100 fly? Ginder has some fast guy swimming 200 free from Denison this year, is it possbile he totally focuses on backstroke? That would make backstroke events crazy interesting just like last year between those two..
      As for the relays, I don’t think W&L can be challenged in any except maybe Fairmont in 400MR.. they didn’t have their best freestyler this year anywhere except I noticed him in their 400FR top times this season.. but that’s the only race he swam this year.. whats up with that? Lilley is his name..

    • #29581
      Chris Knight
      Member

      I don’t see Matej giving up either the fly or the back for the 4 IM, especially now that Corcoran has gone 4:06. I think Corcoran’s best races are the IMs and the 2 Breast, meaning 3 great races with Hayes, not to mention Madolev from FSU, Drakes from Catawba and Vlashchenko from Wingate. Then again, he could possibly swim the 500 on the first day, having gone 4:50. But I don’t think he’ll beat Crook or Muriel in that, so I’d put him in the 2 IM. But who knows, maybe he’ll swim the 1,000 or something. He has a lot of options, and since that 4:06 should qualify him in the 4 IM, he can do whatever scores the most points. What I might do is put him in the 1,000, which he could win, then the 2 IM and the 4 Medley, just the 800 on the Friday, and the 2 breast and the relay on Saturday. That makes their relays pretty strong, and gives them a great shot at taking second in the team race.

      The fly will be very fun to watch. Matej and Regnier will be unshaved but 50.0 (or faster). Effinger should also be in the 50’s in order to qualify. Ben Davisson from WVW will be looking to make D2 NCAAs, so pencil him in for a 51 low. Stagg from W&L should be in the 51s and Gonzalez and Fitzgerald should both be below 53.0. Then there’s the wild card: Wingate is rumored to have a freshman starting in January who will be in the 49-50 range. Meaning that it will probably take a sub 53 effort to make finals (last year it took 54.3). This shapes up to be an awesome race. I see Matej pulling it out for the 4-peat, possibly under the meet record (49.50).

      As for the 400 M.R., it should be competitive. FSU went 3:30.8 at the Longnecker, less than a second off their winning time from last year. But if they want to hang with W&L they’d better find somebody who can anchor faster than 49.1, which is what Lilly split last year. Right now it looks like they don’t have that. Wingate will also be solid in the medleys. The free relays should be good races for second. In theory W&L will roll in those, but then again they should have done so in the 800 last year and DQ’d it…so who knows.

      It should definitely be a faster meet than last year in every event, despite a lot of kids (Matej, Crook, Ginder, Sweet, McGlaston, Regnier, Corcoran) having already made their cuts and (probably) not resting. BTW, I will be announcing the meet (with the exception of the 1000 on Wednesday night and the Thursday prelims), so any suggestions/requests are more than welcome.

    • #29582
      Balki
      Member

      FSU went 3:30.8 at the Longnecker, less than a second off their winning time from last year.

      they went 3.31.3 and the year before 3.30.4 and then 3.30.0 at the conference meet.. so it’s not looking very good for them although I heard from some of them that they feel they can go 3.28
      any predictions for the swimmer of the meet?
      Tomas, Muriel, Corcoran, Hayes, Ginder, Crook? all have a legitimate shot.. I don’t even know who to pick.. I will go with Tomas however..

    • #29583

      Without the pressure of getting swimmers to NCAA’s (their relays qualified their studs), how much will W & L will rest ginder and co. for the meet? how will that affect the results?

    • #29584
      Balki
      Member

      If I was a coach I would go for a 2-day taper.. or just an easier week than usual, looking at Ginder’s results from previous years, I am pretty sure that is something similar to what he does..

    • #29585
      Chris Knight
      Member

      His sophomore and junior years he didn’t rest. I’m expect this year will be the same. I wouldn’t expect the others with A cuts to rest either, but that doesn’t mean they won’t have a 4-peat on their minds.

      As for Swimmer of the Meet predictions, it’s hard to guess b/c of all the variables: Who will enter what, who will rest, etc. I’ll go with Mike, but don’t underestimate Muriel since he’ll be looking for a cut. I know he’s been 4:39, 1:41.0, and 1:51.3. If he improves on those at all, he’ll be very tough to beat in all three.

    • #29586
      Balki
      Member

      He swam 1.40.3 in Orlando couple of years ago.. so he can do it, I agree but something is telling me this is not going to be his best year..
      I think that 400MR is up to W&L.. if they want to win it they can.. if they put Ginder in back, thats maybe half a second behind FSU and then I don’t see them falling behind much before the freestyle where they have over 3 seconds advantage..

    • #29587
      Chris Knight
      Member

      I don’t know, Ginder has been much faster in the 100 Back this fall than last…that might be a dead heat.

    • #29588
      Balki
      Member

      well, then that makes my point of them being the fastest even stronger..
      We’ll see if they go for that

    • #29589
      franchise
      Member

      Hello everybody, this is Matej!
      I like what you guys are doing here and making this conference a little bit more popular.
      To answer some of the questions:
      Kyle Lilley was suspended this semester and will be back for the next semester, that one race was exhibition, that’s all I can say.
      I can’t say what I will swim at the conference meet but you guys are right, whatever I do swim there will be some very exciting and close races.
      As for William, it is true that he is struggling this year but we are still confident that he will score and swim big at the conference meet and go to Buffalo.
      Thanks Chirs Knight for trusting in my fly and thanks Balki for trusting in my other events haha.
      W&L are big favorites in the relays but we are confident that we can steal one from them.

    • #29590
      Chris Knight
      Member

      @franchise wrote:

      Thanks Chirs Knight for trusting in my fly and thanks Balki for trusting in my other events haha.

      It will be a pleasure to watch you swim the 100 fly as opposed to being in the race and getting my ass handed to me. Believe me, I trust your backstroke as well, it’s just that after last year, I expect any race between you and Ginder to be great.

      @franchise wrote:

      W&L are big favorites in the relays but we are confident that we can steal one from them.

      Good luck to y’all – although W&L is my team, close races make the meet better for everyone.

    • #29591
      Balki
      Member

      Thanks for the answers Matej!
      Good luck to you the rest of the season and I hope you go out in style.

    • #29592
      Balki
      Member

      Any news guys?!
      Are there any interesting results? I have noticed that Wingate gave a good fight against W&L, what a great job is Coach Sanocki doing with those young guys. By the way, I don’t think Corcoran has the cut for Nationals so he will have to taper for the Conference meet. Wingate is division II school and it is not enough just to be close to an A cut.
      Did that new guy in 100 fly come to wingate or not, Knight?

    • #29593
      Chris Knight
      Member

      The guy’s name is Gus Chagas, and he wasn’t at the W&L meet. Nor has he been added to the roster on their website. But he swam in the Wingate – SCAD meet 2 days ago, and threw down some crazy times: 50.8 fly split, 21.74 in the open 50, 47.01 in the open 100, 51.18 in the open 100 fly. Those flat start times rank #6, #3, and #2 in the conference, respectively. They’re also Wingate records. I would say he’s pretty good.

      I don’t understand D2, how can Corcoran have a time in the 400 IM that will get him into the A final in March but not be certain of an invite? Ridiculous. Anyway, he is GREAT. He’ll be among the favorites in any race he swims, regardless of whether he rests or not.

    • #29594
      H2allpurpose
      Member

      chris,

      if corcoran has a time that will get him to the top 8, then he’ll be able to get the A cut in the 400IM…you have to get the A cut in prelims to make it back to the top heat at finals….

      …also, the DII thing is something that the coaches have questionned for many years. The short answer that has been that its a numbers issue in terms of participation based on a percentage…and the bigger topic is the money issue….

      I hope that one day, DII goes the same way as DI/DIII

    • #29595
      Balki
      Member

      OK, lets pick out the champions

      50Free McGlaston
      100Free Sweet
      200Free Ginder
      500Free Muriel
      1000Free Corcoran
      1650Free Giesen
      100Back Tomas
      200Back Tomas
      100Fly Tomas
      200Fly Muriel
      100Breast Vlashcenko
      200Breast Madolev
      200IM Corcoran
      400IM Corcoran

      200FR W&L
      400FRW&L
      800FRW&L
      200MRW&L
      400MRWingate

      Of course, the problem is we don’t know who is going to swim what.. Ginder didn’t swim 200 free last year but I have a feeling he will this year.. Corcoran is uncertain so is Tomas somewhat..

    • #29596
      Chris Knight
      Member

      @Balki wrote:

      OK, lets pick out the champions

      50Free McGlaston
      100Free Sweet
      200Free Ginder
      500Free Muriel
      1000Free Corcoran
      1650Free Giesen
      100Back Tomas
      200Back Tomas
      100Fly Tomas
      200Fly Muriel
      100Breast Vlashcenko
      200Breast Madolev
      200IM Corcoran
      400IM Corcoran

      200FR W&L
      400FRW&L
      800FRW&L
      200MRW&L
      400MRWingate

      I’m game, I’ll even pick the podium. I’ll try not to be too much of a homer.

      50: McGlaston, Chagas, Sweet
      100: Sweet, Chagas, McGlaston
      200: Crook, Sweet, Muriel
      500: Crook, Tatman, Muriel
      1000: Moore, Dugan, Gibson
      1650: Giesen, Austin, Gibson
      1 Bk: Tomas, Ginder, Parks
      2 Bk: Ginder, Tomas, Parks
      1 Fl: Chagas, Tomas, Effinger
      2 Fl: Muriel, Effinger, Regnier
      1 Br: Vlaschenko, Madolev, Drakes
      2 Br: Hayes, Madolev, Vlaschenko
      2 IM: Corcoran, Crook, Hayes
      4 IM: Corcoran, Hayes, Hartmann

      4×50: W&L, Wingate, WVW
      4×100: W&L, Wingate, FSU
      4×200: W&L, RHIT, Wingate
      4×50 Med: W&L, Wingate, FSU
      4×100 Med: W&L, FSU, Wingate

      -Both of the medleys will be awesome, probably the best races of the meet. W&L wants a cut in one (preferably both), Wingate got significantly faster with the arrival of Chagas, and FSU specializes in the medleys. I just think that neither Wingate nor FSU will have the speed on the last leg to hold off McGlaston in the 4×50 and Sweet in the 4×100. But all three teams will be very close, followed by SCAD who will probably not be shaved.
      -I picked Chagas over Tomas in the fly because he’ll need the cut, whereas Tomas is in courtesy of his 49.86 at Grove City. But it will come down to the touch, should be an amazing race.
      -I don’t know what on earth Ginder will swim, so I put him in the same events as last year (50, both backs).
      -Looking at the D2 standards, there appears to be no A cut in the 1000, meaning (I guess) that you can’t use that to get you into the meet. So I no longer think Corcoran will enter the 1000. I now see him taking 4th in the 200 Breast. He needs to drop 2.66 in the 4 IM for the A cut, and I’m thinking he’ll do that and more.

    • #29597
      H2allpurpose
      Member

      with those champions in mind………what records have a chance to go down!

      are the records posted on the BGMC site?

    • #29598
      Chris Knight
      Member

      They are not, although there is a spot where it appears a link to them will eventually be.

      However, I happen to have them:

      Bluegrass Mountain Conference Meet Records

      200 Free Relay 1:23.69 Washington & Lee University
      500 Free 4:28.49 Scott Trautwire (WSU)
      200 IM 1:51.43 Rui Abreu (Cleveland)
      50 Free 20.47 Greg Hetson (Young)
      400 Medley 3:25.86 Cleveland State
      200 Medley 1:33.95 Cleveland State
      1000 Free 9:35.89 Paul Mangen (WJU)
      400 IM 4:03.39 Scott Olsen (WVW)
      100 Fly 49.50 Harold Wagner(Cleveland)
      200 Free 1:39.69 Scott Trautweire (WSU)
      100 Breast 56.09 Eric Mays (Cleveland)
      100 Back 50.84 Matej Tomas (Fairmont State)
      800 Free Relay 6:51.13 Cleveland State
      1650 Free 15:48.62 Predrag Stojadinovic
      200 Back 1:50.61 Michael Ginder (Washington & Lee)
      100 Free 45.70 Greg Hetson(Young)
      200 Breast 2:02.02 Eric Meyers (Cleveland)
      200 Fly 1:49.85 Zoran Lazarovski (WJU)
      400 Free Relay 3:05.00 WSU

    • #29599
      Balki
      Member

      You have an event where you don’t have Ginder and Corcoran on the podium. Which events would those be?

    • #29600
      franchise
      Member

      I think you guys are overlooking Regnier and SCAD..
      He went 48.8 or something like that last year at NAIA and he is swimming faster in season this year than the last..
      And I do agree with Balki, I think Corcoran and Ginder will be on the podium in all of their events..
      Peace

    • #29601
      Chris Knight
      Member

      @balki wrote:

      You have an event where you don’t have Ginder and Corcoran on the podium. Which events would those be?

      Ginder, the 50. McGlaston, Sweet, and Chagas have all been faster than him. Corcoran, the 200 breast. I don’t see him swimming the 1000 if it won’t help him get into the big dance, and he’s currently ranked 4th in the conference in the 200 breast. Admittedly, I have no idea what his 3rd event will be.

      @franchise wrote:

      I think you guys are overlooking Regnier and SCAD..
      He went 48.8 or something like that last year at NAIA and he is swimming faster in season this year than the last..
      And I do agree with Balki, I think Corcoran and Ginder will be on the podium in all of their events..
      Peace

      Why should Regnier shave? He’s got a shot to win the 100 fly at NAIA, the conference meet isn’t worth jeopardizing that. I am sure he’ll be fast, but we know that Chagas and Effinger will be going for cuts, whereas it’ll basically be training for Regnier.

    • #29602
      franchise
      Member

      I knew that, I never thought he would shave but I still think he has a quality to get it done tired.
      Does Wingate still have any dual meets left?
      I wouldn’t be surprised if Chagas makes a cut there just like William almost (.87 slower) did it in 200 fly this past weekend.
      He swam 51.1 after swimming 3 events in that session already, I bet he could go 50.2..

    • #29603
      H2allpurpose
      Member

      Matej,

      what records are you going to break then, since no one wants to come out and state the records that are going down.

      Croatian sensation II Baby!

    • #29604
      franchise
      Member

      You are scared I will break your record aren’t you?
      haha, I probably won’t that one but I dont see a reason why I wouldn’t break some.. one is mine and three others are slower than my PR..
      I know that records in the my races will go down, now it’s just a matter if I will be the one to break them..
      according to Reed, maybe 100 back and that’s it.. haha
      Peace

    • #29605
      H2allpurpose
      Member

      franchise,

      not worried that you’d be the one to break the record, but I think it may be the slowest record and should be taken down for that fact alone, but not bad I guess for unshaved, and truely unrested….

      My money, if it were permissible, would be on you though in your events…

      You thinking about going into coaching post-grad? You should look into it, you have a lot of knowledge about this sport that could be passed along.

    • #29606
      franchise
      Member

      Thanks H2!
      I have answered some of your questions in my blog, I think it’s coming out today..
      I am looking for Grad school to go to, I will also continue to swim and compete, this season is not going to end my swimming career.
      I can hardly go few days without swimming and I am always on all this forums, reading about swimming, my brother swam in Sydney, World Championships and who knows where not and now he is a swim coach..
      My dad is a voluntary president of the biggest club team in Croatia, I mean, swimming is so appreciated in my family, that is like a way of living..

    • #29607
      Chris Knight
      Member

      @franchise wrote:

      You are scared I will break your record aren’t you?
      haha, I probably won’t that one but I dont see a reason why I wouldn’t break some.. one is mine and three others are slower than my PR..
      I know that records in the my races will go down, now it’s just a matter if I will be the one to break them..
      according to Reed, maybe 100 back and that’s it.. haha
      Peace

      Swimming history is full of stories of upsets by guys with nothing to lose going out faster than they ever have before just to see what happens, and winning. Every time I look at this 100 fly, I think it’s the kind of race where this could happen. If you tell me that 2 guys who have been in the 50’s or better need cuts and will be shaved (Chagas and Effinger), then I can definitely see one of them pulling the upset over the two guys who are the fastest, but who will not be fully rested or shaved (yourself and Regnier). I’m not saying that you’re not the favorite, because of course you have to be as the 3 time champ. But the competition has definitely stepped up. Plus, I wanted to make a ballsy pick that would keep the conversation going.
      Anyway, I think this is going to be the best individual race of the men’s meet. Last year I went 53.6 and was 6th, this year that won’t make the top 8 by a long shot.

      As for the 200 back…come on, you knew I had to pick Ginder!

    • #29608
      Chris Knight
      Member

      Oh, also Wingate does have 1 more dual meet. This Saturday they will be at Davidson, which has a pretty fast pool. If Chagas gets that hard D2 A cut this week, then I doubt he’ll rest for Bluegrass, either. That would definitely change the race.

    • #29609
      franchise
      Member

      Yeah, Ginder beat me last year so he deserves to be a favorite..
      I see what you are saying and I totally agree, I don’t even know which race to pick to be the best, I think all of them will be close and fast and I am excited that the meet is looking to be the best ever.. We can thank Coach Sanocki for that haha..
      And if none of the guys from Wingate make cuts this weekend, they will have fast relays since they will all be tapered and shaved..

    • #29610
      Chris Knight
      Member

      @H2allpurpose wrote:

      Matej,

      what records are you going to break then, since no one wants to come out and state the records that are going down.

      Croatian sensation II Baby!

      I wanted to really take a look at the times before I made any predictions along those lines. Here goes:

      200 Free Relay 1:23.69 Washington & Lee University
      Should go, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it stays. This is not the most important 200 FR that W&L has in the upcoming months, so they probably won’t push the starts and might not even swim the same roster as they will at NCAAs. Plus, I’m on the current record so I don’t want to see it go just yet. But it probably will.

      500 Free 4:28.49 Scott Trautwire (WSU)
      I seriously doubt it. Crook will go this fast at some point in his career, but not this year unshaved.

      200 IM 1:51.43 Rui Abreu (Cleveland)
      This is crazy fast. Not within reach.

      50 Free 20.47 Greg Hetson (Young)
      I don’t know about this. Logically Tim should get it, having been just .19 slower in November, in a slow pool, in a dual meet. But again, his focus is squarely on nationals. However, I’ll say he gets it, simply because the MCAC is so fast.

      400 Medley 3:25.86 Cleveland State
      No, but W&L could be that fast in March.

      200 Medley 1:33.95 Cleveland State
      Yes. Whoever wins among W&L, Wingate, and FSU should walk away with this one.

      1000 Free 9:35.89 Paul Mangen (WJU)
      Uh uh.

      400 IM 4:03.39 Scott Olsen (WVW)
      This is right around the D2 cut, so Corcoran should take it.

      100 Fly 49.50 Harold Wagner(Cleveland)
      Almost certain to go. Tomas, Chagas, Regnier, and possibly Effinger are capable of this time, and as I’ve said they will all be racing each other in the middle, making the record likely to fall.

      200 Free 1:39.69 Scott Trautweire (WSU)
      Ginder can break this unshaved, but I don’t know if he’ll be in it. I believe Crook and Sweet can go that fast shaved, but probably not unshaved (yet). So I think this stays, unless Ginder swims it.

      100 Breast 56.09 Eric Mays (Cleveland)
      The Russian boys from Wingate and Catawba are fast, but this is really fast. I don’t think so.

      100 Back 50.84 Matej Tomas (Fairmont State)
      Without a doubt, probably more than once by both Mr. Franchise and Ginder.

      800 Free Relay 6:51.13 Cleveland State
      W&L has been faster than this already, but they already have the A cut and will win by a mile regardless. They don’t need to go this fast and will probably be at least a little tired. I don’t think so, but again, it certainly could.

      1650 Free 15:48.62 Predrag Stojadinovic
      That’s a sick time, I don’t see it happening this year.

      200 Back 1:50.61 Michael Ginder (Washington & Lee)
      Same story as the 100 back

      100 Free 45.70 Greg Hetson(Young)
      Here’s how this will play out: Sweet will be unrested, and therefore tired by the 3rd day. Chagas will be shaved in pursuit of the cuts. Chagas will take the early lead, Sweet will get pissed, and pass him on the last 25 in 45.60.

      200 Breast 2:02.02 Eric Meyers (Cleveland)
      This might be the fastest record in the meet, NO WAY

      200 Fly 1:49.85 Zoran Lazarovski (WJU)
      Muriel’s gotta be the favorite, and if he’s been 1:51 in a dual then this is only about a 2% drop from that. I’ll say yes.

      400 Free Relay 3:05.00 WSU
      W&L’s been 3:04.1, but at the very end of a 3 day meet with everyone unrested, I don’t see them doing it again. But in March they’ll be much, MUCH faster.

    • #29611
      H2allpurpose
      Member

      c-knight,

      so does that 1000 go down?

    • #29612
      Balki
      Member

      I am going to disagree on 200 fly unless Matej swims that. William has not been swimming 200fly well in previous years and I don’t see him going faster than 1.51. I think he gets really tired by the third day
      And this will come as a surprise but I will go and say that 200MR stays, 1.33.9 is pretty fast, I primarily said that it stays because you were so sure it won’t so its more interesting.

    • #29613
      Balki
      Member

      H2,
      No it doesn’t. Corcoran will not swim that because he still needs to make a cut and 1000 will not take him to Buffalo and noone else can come even close. It’s on the first day, I really dont think he will swim that

    • #29614
      H2allpurpose
      Member

      Balki,

      does corcoran have any cuts? If not, will he do the mile. He should be able to get the 1000 in the mile if he’s shaved and tapered.

      Or Crook, or anyone one of the top 3 contenders in the mile.

    • #29615
      Balki
      Member

      Crook usually swims 200IM, 200 and 500 Free but now that the meet is starting on wednesday maybe someone decides to go for a 1000.
      I dont think anyone will break that record, no way anyone can split that in a mile, no way! Corcoran doesn’t have a cut, his best shot is 400IM and that is on friday, if I was him I would save the energy for that race

    • #29616
      N Dynamite
      Member

      @Chris Knight wrote:

      …This is not the most important 200 FR that W&L has in the upcoming months, so they probably won’t push the starts and might not even swim the same roster as they will at NCAAs…

      …Logically Tim should get it, having been just .19 slower in November, in a slow pool, in a dual meet. But again, his focus is squarely on nationals. However, I’ll say he gets it, simply because the MCAC is so fast…

      …No, but W&L could be that fast in March…

      …W&L…should walk away with this one…

      …Ginder can break this unshaved, but I don’t know if he’ll be in it. I believe Crook and Sweet can go that fast shaved, but probably not unshaved (yet). So I think this stays, unless Ginder swims it…

      …Without a doubt, probably more than once by…Ginder…

      W&L has been faster than this already, but they already have the A cut and will win by a mile regardless. They don’t need to go this fast and will probably be at least a little tired. I don’t think so, but again, it certainly could…

      …Here’s how this will play out: Sweet will be unrested, and therefore tired by the 3rd day. Chagas will be shaved in pursuit of the cuts. Chagas will take the early lead, Sweet will get pissed, and pass him on the last 25 in 45.60…

      …W&L’s been 3:04.1, but at the very end of a 3 day meet with everyone unrested, I don’t see them doing it again. But in March they’ll be much, MUCH faster.

      CK, don’t take this the wrong way, I think it’s great that you’re this high on W&L, every alumni should feel this strongly about his alma mater. Believe me when I say, I expect them to be extremely fast in March – I’ve been very impressed by what Coach Shinofield has done there. However, you’re throwing around some pretty serious predictions – can I trouble you for specific times for March?

    • #29617
      Chris Knight
      Member

      @Balki wrote:

      Crook usually swims 200IM, 200 and 500 Free but now that the meet is starting on wednesday maybe someone decides to go for a 1000.
      I dont think anyone will break that record, no way anyone can split that in a mile, no way! Corcoran doesn’t have a cut, his best shot is 400IM and that is on friday, if I was him I would save the energy for that race

      By far his best bet is the 400 IM. He hasn’t swum the mile, so you can’t assume he’ll enter it (although that 9:50 1000 indicates he’d be very, very good at it). I think that since the 1000 can’t help anybody get into nationals (in any division), and since it’s on Wednesday, not too many people will even enter it. I know, for instance, that W&L won’t even arrive in time for it.

      Distance is not the conference’s strength right now. So I don’t see either of those records going down, especially as a 1000 split going out in the mile.

      On Muriel’s chances in the 200 fly: You’re probably right. I didn’t realize that he “only” has to go 1:52.39 to make NCAAs. So that record is probably safe, unless Regnier decides to go nuts.

      I have to disagree with you regarding the 200 MR. W&L really wants to qualify one of the medleys and I think the 200 is the better chance. Ginder has been 23.9, Hayes has split 26.5, whoever swims fly will definitely go 23.5 or better, and McGlaston has an absolutely deadly relay start, he should go 20.0. Those add up to 1:33.9, right on the record, and just under last year’s Q time of 1:34.02. Of course, in ’05 the Q time was 1:33.5, so they won’t just be looking to break 1:34. I haven’t tried to figure out what the Wingate guys will split, but with a 57 breaststroker and a 49 flyer, they’ll definitely be extremely fast in the middle, and a threat to win. I don’t see this record surviving.

      Napoleon: I try to dial down my school spirit, but they are definitely the strength of the conference in free. As far as nationals, I truly have no idea. I think that McGlaston and Sweet, both being relatively new to swimming, can improve more than people probably assume they will. I said once that McGlaston would go 20.2 in Houston, and I’ll stick to that. I think Sweet will break 45. I think Ginder has not even come close to his potential in the 200, and that despite Curtis’ 1:36.9, that will be a race. I swam with him for 3 years, and I know how hard he works. He will be much faster than last year. I have no clue what he’ll go in the 2 Bk, but I do know I wish I were going to see him go up against John Thomas on Saturday. I think Crook will be in the 1:40’s, and possibly 4:35. The other guys have work to do at the Bluegrass meet to get in as individuals, so I think I’ll leave it at that for now. Hope I’ve satisfied at least some of your curiosity.

    • #29618
      H2allpurpose
      Member

      chris,

      9:35 is not that fast for a mile split…it was done by a unshaved, untapered guy during the morning session.

      That is probably a 16:04 to 16:01 pace. Is there no one at that level? I look at the crook kid, tatman and if those guys didn’t rest or shave to go there 500 times, don’t you think they’d be on pace put up some decent distance times.

      Oh well…

      looking forward to seeing the results on the Medleys…are the results going to be posted within a timely fashion?

    • #29619
      Chris Knight
      Member

      @H2allpurpose wrote:

      chris,

      9:35 is not that fast for a mile split…it was done by a unshaved, untapered guy during the morning session.

      That is probably a 16:04 to 16:01 pace. Is there no one at that level? I look at the crook kid, tatman and if those guys didn’t rest or shave to go there 500 times, don’t you think they’d be on pace put up some decent distance times.

      Oh well…

      looking forward to seeing the results on the Medleys…are the results going to be posted within a timely fashion?

      I have no idea how the results will come up.

      Crook doesn’t swim the mile, and Tatman probably won’t either. It conflicts with the 200 Back, which he could make Nationals in. Only 2 guys broke 10:00 in the 1,000 last year. Barrineau graduated, and Muriel probably won’t swim it again. As for the mile, the top 2 guys last year were Tatman and Barrineau, both 16:28. The next guy was Cruickshank at 16:43, who I don’t believe is swimming this year. So Giesen, the W&L freshman, has the fastest time at 16:50. Although he has a lot of potential and I hope he goes under 16:40, I don’t see anyone going 16:04 this year.

    • #29620
      N Dynamite
      Member

      CK – I appreciate the insight – I don’t know those guys well enough to know what they can do, so that was very helpful. However, one other question – since I don’t know Shinofield that well either, is he willing to give up a medley relay just to save the shave and rest for nationals? It’s not like 15 teams are getting in, and like you said, it took 1:34.02 last year. Here’s why I think we’re looking at 1:33 low to get in this year:

      KZoo – enough has been said about them already
      CMU looks very fast – their freshmen are very good and I’m guessing Krzyminski wants as much compay as possible for his senior year
      Grove City barely missed the meet last year and looks faster with Courage doing the back
      Emory didn’t even get an invite last year but finished 5th
      Middlebury was in exile last year but has an extremely fast MR.

      Those are just the ones off the top of my head – I haven’t really looked at NYU, Tufts, or UCSC. Will someone have to stay home if the relay doesn’t get in or are the guys on the free relay basically the same that do the medleys? Is Shinofield willing to take the chance?

    • #29621
      H2allpurpose
      Member

      How many entraints get to swim in ea. event at the DIII nationals….

      are the individual events different than that of the relays..

      I know the auto cuts, and the provincal cuts, etc. but how many do they take for each?

    • #29622
      N Dynamite
      Member

      I can’t remember the exact numbers, but there is a cap – they take a certain amount of individuals event swimmers and a certain number of relay only swimmers. They fill the events evenly as far as they can and then the extra spots go to the people closest to the NCAA record. All the individuals first then the relays. Some years you have 11 or 12 relays invited in each event, sometimes less. You can usually count on 19-20 individuals per event. Once the cap is reached no one else gets invited unless someone scratches. So looking at the relays – for someone new to get in someone else has to be left at home. That’s why I’m surprised at what Chris is saying – it doesn’t sound like a sure thing in the medleys, so why chance it by not shaving and tapering? As I said, though, I don’t know all the ins and outs of W&L, so there’s probably a good reason.

    • #29623

      @H2allpurpose wrote:

      looking forward to seeing the results on the Medleys…are the results going to be posted within a timely fashion?

      We will try to get results up as soon as events are done…at worst after each session. My S.I.D. is very good at getting things done in a timely manner!

    • #29624
      Chris Knight
      Member

      @N Dynamite wrote:

      I can’t remember the exact numbers, but there is a cap – they take a certain amount of individuals event swimmers and a certain number of relay only swimmers. They fill the events evenly as far as they can and then the extra spots go to the people closest to the NCAA record. All the individuals first then the relays. Some years you have 11 or 12 relays invited in each event, sometimes less. You can usually count on 19-20 individuals per event. Once the cap is reached no one else gets invited unless someone scratches. So looking at the relays – for someone new to get in someone else has to be left at home. That’s why I’m surprised at what Chris is saying – it doesn’t sound like a sure thing in the medleys, so why chance it by not shaving and tapering? As I said, though, I don’t know all the ins and outs of W&L, so there’s probably a good reason.

      The middle two legs (Hayes and any one of 4 or 5 potential flyers) will be shaved. Ginder will be focused on qualifying the medleys, not on his individuals, so I think he should be fast enough to go 23 high / 24 low unshaved and with just a little rest. I mean, last year when we went to the last chance meet, he threw down a nation-leading time (1:39.5-ish) in the 200 free to qualify the 800 relay via aggregation, then came back about 20 minutes later and smoked a 20-low split to anchor our 200 free relay to within .04 of the A cut (and booked me a flight to Minneapolis, muchas gracias). The kid LOVES relays, and he can swim very, very fast unshaved when there’s something at stake. Then on the anchor, you have McGlaston, who’s already shown that he can thrown down a sick 50 (20.66 flat start) unshaved, and who I already mentioned as having a great (though admittedly risky) relay start. So looking at this relay, as fast as Mike and Tim have proven to be unshaved in the past, I don’t think it’s worth shaving them.

      As for the 400, it’ll be tougher. I think Ginder will be around 51.0, Hayes should be in the 58’s, the flyer should be around 52, and then Sweet will bring it home in under 46 (he is not quite as fast as Tim in season, but he seems to taper better). That’s around 3:27.5, a school record by quite a bit, but good enough to qualify? Hard to say before the conference meets start, but I doubt it. I don’t think it’s out of the question to expect a 50.low out of Ginder and a 44.low out of Sweet in Houston, which would give them a 3:25.something, but I’m not positive that they can put that together in February.

      Last year in March we were running on fumes, having tapered and retapered so much. For them to place high in the free relays it’s important not to rest the guys who are already in. Yes, it’s a gamble, but it’s the same decision I would make. Also, Hayes has a good shot at getting invited to the meet on his own in the 400 IM, possibly also the 200 breast. So if he goes then they’ll have at least 3 out of the 4 pieces of a pretty good medley, and should place in the 9-12 range. But if they qualify one of their “true” flyers, then I think they have a shot at cracking the top 8 in either medley.

    • #29625
      franchise
      Member

      However W&L decides to go with the relays I am sure it will be the best option they can do.. I think Coach Shinofield is on top of the things..
      I will never forget when I first talked to him.. It was in the restroom right before 400 Free Relay, the last day of course.. And I didn’t even think he was worried about that relay, I wasn’t even sure if he knew who I was and I think I said something like “So, you guys are ready to take this relay”.. I mean, in my mind W&L was a huge favorite and I was just thinking how to beat others, our rivals Wesleyan and Salem.. He said “well, we’ll see..” and then I think in less than a minute analyzed all of the guys from W&L, Salem and our relay, just told me what they swam today, how tired they are, who is going which leg, and which leg is going to be the key one.. I like how he respected all the other relays, while I don’t even think we should have even been contenders in that one..

    • #29626
      Chris Knight
      Member

      Um…I’m pretty sure he knows who you are, Matej.

    • #29627
      franchise
      Member

      Well, it was my sophomore year.. I wasn’t sure

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