200 Medley Relay

Forums General National Championships 200 Medley Relay

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    • #11976
      silentp
      Member

      I was looking over the 200 MR going into next year, thinking it would be K’s best relay, and saw several holes. You have seen my predictions on possible times for our team, but would they have an outside shot at winning it? I am not saying they will, should, or are a front runner, but could they… Here’s my analysis

      Of the top 8, 6 lose 2 guys, Wheaton loses 3 and Emory only loses 1.

      Most notable loses in the top 5:
      Duda (21.6 fly)
      Cunningham (23.1 back)
      Hake (21.4 fly)

      Those are 3 guys that as far as we know, won’t be immediately replaced. Emory got in a great flyer, but 21.4 is amazing. If he is replaced by a 22.0, that puts them at 1:33-high.

      Other things to note:
      Zarins was only 25.8 (ouch!) so he will probably be faster
      Kenyon WILL replace their guys, but the fly won’t be quite as fast by Harris
      Emory’s breast split was a 26.7 and they got a stud breast recruit…

      The 4 favorites then are Kenyon (always), Hopkins, Denison and Emory.

      Emory will be faster because they make up more in breast than they lose in fly… i’ll say about 1:32.5
      Denison will be about the same, with key losses but replaceable times so 1:32.0
      Hopkins will have a tough time replacing the 25.4 from Harris but should recruit someone to beat the 22.6 by S Kim, so about.. 1:32.0
      Kenyon always replaces but doesn’t have a backstroker (yet) and therefore are in trouble, especially if Zarins isn’t on again, but i’ll say 1:32.0

      1 Wild Card (before I quickly discuss Zoo)
      Olaf: they were 1:32.9 at conference without Westby on the relay, with him at fly they’d be at least half a second faster there and Kukla will have a full year of swimming, meaning they could be 1:32.0 also… but that’s more question marks.

      Zoo is very unproven, but they should have the lead. If they are in the big heat, and not in lane 1 or 8, the flyer should feel a lot of pressure to produce a great time… if this happens they may still lead going into free… it would be tough for their freestyler to hold off someone like Test, but it’s also a big rush of adrenaline…

    • #30687
      Stevo
      Member

      Pfau….what kind of reply’s do you expect from that post. All the K guy’s are going to say, “the definitely have a chance of winning a national championshp” and everyone else will tell you that you are insane.

    • #30688
      Derek
      Member

      Stevo, once again, is wrong.

      I’m thinking that there are plenty of guys out there who are not K who will say that silentp has a good point as far as hypotheticals go, although it isn’t really all that strong. At this point, it is really wishful thinking until we see these guys perform. ALL of these guys perform, not just K’s guys.

      As for me… silentp’s hypothetical is simply too far-fetched and I don’t see the times to back him up, but that’s because I spend more time working than trying to tell silentp he’s insane. When I’m not working, I’m making sure that you guys aren’t using profanity on here and making New York public schools block this website. I’d like to see a post more like the one about the 400FR instead of these hypotheticals. I know we’ve already seen a lot of potential times, but can we do a head to head? Or did that already happen and I was asleep at the wheel?

    • #30689
      Lane2AllStar
      Member

      No offense SilentP, but give it up. They are good (well 2 of them are) but the other two arent at all strong enough to hang with the rest of the national medleys.

    • #30690
      silentp
      Member

      This could be the best chance for Emory to win a relay, which would really work well for momentum going into the 400 IM, an event they dominate. Unfortunately, their flyer seems to be better at the 200 fly than the 100, meaning his 50 likely not as strong. As I said, Kim was only 22.6 and I could see this guy going about the same and their addition of a much better breastroker, won’t be enough.
      Kenyon, obviously, has to be the favorite, but does have an issue at backstroke, which has usually not been a problem for them. I don’t know what they got for recruits however, and perhaps one of their flyers can do a good split in the 50 back, it’s only a 50 back after all. They also seem to know how to touch the wall first, but that doesn’t mean it will happen this year.
      Since K isn’t likely going to win it, and has a lot of variables with their freshmen, could we say they are likely going to have an all-freshman all-american relay? Nothing says they will all be freshmen, but it’s possible and i think that’d be cool. Has that happened recently?

    • #30691
      silentp
      Member

      Just for the sake of the discussion i started and was quickly dismissed, it would seem like a longshot since the added times (not my own thoughts or illusions) of the K relay would be 1:33.53
      23.5
      25.0 (official conversion from carribean champs w/ relay start)
      23.75
      21.3

      a ways off the winners as it stands right now, but still not bad!

    • #30692

      Just to toss in my two cents

      Kenyon will have problems in the relays this year I think because as of right now, they dont have that stud for their relay. Strong depth is great and all, but over the past however many years, they have always had at least 1 big stud on each relay to put them over the top. You saw what happened last year when they didnt have Duda for the 800 FR. Zarins didnt seem to be that guy in 2006 but if he can find he groove again then maybe he will be. But all the rest of the guys on that relay look pretty average without a 21. fly split.

      Emory lost their only really good leg to graduation. If you look at there other 3 legs, they arent anywhere near the top 4-5 without that huge spilt form Hake. Again, doesnt look quite so daunting without a 21. fly split. And the BR hole they will be in to Kenyon pretty much dooms them.

      Williams also has big shoes to fill in Cunningham.

      Denison is the team I like here, with Hopkins not too far behind. Denison does lose ABC, but if they can find a BR 50 somewhere they will be good. JHU has plenty of BR around to get a nice split in the 25 high range, its just up to someone to step up and fill that Fly hole left my Sean Kim. And no, I have no inside information as to who it will be.

      I think i covered most of the big dogs. I would look for some team to come out of nowhere to challenge though. The 200 MR is a dash and much more variable than the 400 MR where you just have to have the horses. St. Olaf may hang around or maybe UWSP. who knows.

    • #30693
      Negrodamus
      Member

      silentp, for your estimated medley for K you also have to remember that their freshman flyer went a 23.8 pre taper and got the flu so you have to figure that the fly leg will be alot faster than 23.75. I actually expect their fly leg to be under 23 this year. so inluding that they will more likely be under 1:33 which would put them close to the 1:32.88 that is the MIAA record. Should be interesting.

    • #30694
      silentp
      Member

      @Negrodamus wrote:

      silentp, for your estimated medley for K you also have to remember that their freshman flyer went a 23.8 pre taper and got the flu so you have to figure that the fly leg will be alot faster than 23.75. I actually expect their fly leg to be under 23 this year. so inluding that they will more likely be under 1:33 which would put them close to the 1:32.88 that is the MIAA record. Should be interesting.

      I agree with you, but i just did best times that they had done. I think all 4 legs should actually be faster consdering they are all freshmen with potential, but people don’t like to hear that. The approximate 1 second drop in fly alone would put them sub 1:33.

    • #30695
      zinlover
      Member

      The KC freshman went 22.41 at nationals prelims last year

    • #30696
      swim5599
      Member

      I still think Zarins is a stud, and if he returns to form and gives them the 24.9 that he has gone before, they will be right in it. I expect a big big year from Harris. I mean the guy did split 48.8 in the prelims of Kenyon’s 400 MR at nats this past year.

      This should be one of the closest relays. If Denison’s other three guys can get 2 tenths faster per 50 per guy, they also could win it.

    • #30697

      Emory’s 50 breast split will get a huge boost with the return of Silk the Shocker…he was out last year with an illness. (Hint, he split 25.5 in 05)

    • #30698
      silentp
      Member

      @screeeeeeeeech wrote:

      Emory’s 50 breast split will get a huge boost with the return of Silk the Shocker…he was out last year with an illness. (Hint, he split 25.5 in 05)

      Their freshman breastroker also has a good shot of being on it. I don’t see them having a problem getting in the top 8 but right now would not pick them as my winner.

    • #30699
      swim5599
      Member

      ANyone know if Sabir is till helping out at Emory? This is a tough relay to call, But I guess if emory can throw out 25.5 in the breaststroke they would have a shot, however who is going to swim the backstroke leg for them and is this guy capable of being 23 high or so, because without that it will be tough to win.

    • #30700

      Yes Sabir is still coaching the sprinters at Emory. The breastroke leg will help Emory a lot, but I don’t know enough about backstroke to make any judgments.

    • #30701
      RadAGator
      Member

      kzoo #1 so far…

    • #30702
      Squirttle
      Member

      I don’t see Silk the Shocker helping the Eagles out this year judging by his performance at UAA’s.

    • #30703

      Are you serious? Silk has a heart problem. Go make fun of retarded people too if that makes you feel better. Grow up…

    • #30704
      Squirttle
      Member

      I agree with you that Silk came in 2005 and helped the Eagles in Holland. However, he was out last year getting over his heart condition. My point was simply to contradict that he was going to be a major impact this year for the Eagles. I’d think Bobo or Yamada would get the nod before Silk. I wasn’t trying to make fun of anyone, just countering your point about him helping in 2007.

      screeeeeeeeech Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 8:01 pm Post subject:



      Emory’s 50 breast split will get a huge boost with the return of Silk the Shocker…he was out last year with an illness. (Hint, he split 25.5 in 05)

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