07 MIAA

Great questions.

Right now I believe Ellis will be in both backstrokes, but instead of the 50 I say he should but don’t think he will go 100, maybe tougher for a first but much less of a risk. lots of guys with potential in the 50.

50 will be a great race I see the top 12 being Ellis, Powers, Ressigue, Rose Holton, Vanderbroek, Bacon, Voss, Aguierre, Fetters, Vogelzang, Kurti. But this is a crap shoot, loose your goggles, have a bad start its over.

Big heat of the 500 will be Krone, Heyboer, Tuuk, Jaffee, Richardson, Buscher (sorry if I spell any names wrong).

Relays will be exciting medlys go to K and frees will go to Hope I don’t see any challenges for first except for maybe the 800 free relay with Olivet and Hope, Calvin would be in it except Toll made himself ineligible.

100 fly, fastest event of the meet top to bottom, I see the winner at 50.3, but no faster, but possibly a sub 50 in a relay.

Yuri punches his ticket in the 200 fly and will get invited in the 400 IM.

The battle for first will be decided by the team that shows up this year, there really is no favorite going into it in my opinion, sure Olivet win the dual, but those times are still some of their fastest all season, and Hope has shown they are pretty quick when they rest at Wheaton this year. edge Hope by 10 in my opinion.

@Ghost Rider wrote:

I see the top 12 being Ellis, Powers, Ressigue, Rose Holton, Vanderbroek, Bacon, Voss, Aguierre, Fetters, Vogelzang, Kurti. But this is a crap shoot, lose your goggles, have a bad start its over.

Fonzi, JBG? Here is how I see it:

1-3 around 21.2
4-6 around 21.5
7-12 around 21.6

(Keep in mind, it is really rare for someone to swim a lifetime best in the 50 in prelims at MIAA’s).

Anyhow, if you look on that list, there are going to be some good swimmers watching from the pool deck.

I hate to even say this but diving will make the difference.
Close but Olivet wins.Hope 2nd, K 3rd.

I’m sorry I have to bring this up but Hope will win the swim meet and lose the diving meet. Either way, it will be within 20 pts.

Other thoughts…

-The Olivet distance crew will put 3 or 4 guys in finals of the 500
-Meisner takes third in the 2 br…that’s right
-Holton wins the 50 in 21.3
-CVB goes 1:41 in the 200
-Olivet vs. K in the 100 breast finals
-Hope vs. Olivet + Ress in the finals of the 50
-The defending champ of the 1 fly (Fetters) gets 4th, and 5th if Ellis is in it
-Only one person, Dekker, goes 50 in the 100 fly
-Olivet (1:24) beats Cal in the 2 and 4 fr relays

Overall, I think Hope should be cheering for other teams to step up. Similar to how Fodell defeated Meisner in the 1 br last year, Hope will need other teams to pull upsets in order for them to win. K plays a huge part in this, especially in the breast events.

@stewie wrote:

-Holton wins the 50 in 21.3

Overall, I think Hope should be cheering for other teams to step up. Similar to how Fodell defeated Meisner in the 1 br last year, Hope will need other teams to pull upsets in order for them to win. K plays a huge part in this, especially in the breast events.

Holton wins the 50 with a 20.9…Justification: His first two years at hope were pretty bad, but last year he finally got his confidence back and started swimming like he used to in highschool, he will go into this meet ready to kill…and the 50 is his event

like stewie said hope needed help from other teams as well last year, but now that K is much stronger it is possible that K will help them a lot, but the loss of toll from Calvin will hurt hope as well. The Calvin 800 Freelay will now lose to OC 8 FR unless some dude from calvin steps up…this hurts hope, but there are plenty other events that other teams will be able to step up….as of now i am giving the edge to OC…hopefully hope can prove everyone wrong

With it being so close I am going to have to pick Hope. My gut says Olivet but since everyone is saying 10-20 point seperating I can’t pick Olivet.

From what i hear Jake Holton is swimming really well lately, no one ever really talks about Jake but I will agree with Stewie and pick him in the 50. But i think he will go faster than 21.3, i’ll put him at 21.09

the whole swimming/diving argument has been beaten worse than the time trial debate.

I’m a pretty kickass National Park, but now i have some BOLD predictions and will bet that at least 3 of these 5 come true (even I’m not perfect).

1. Dekker will not win an event at MIAAs.

2. Heyboer will win only 1 event.

3. The 50 free will not see a B cut in the event.

4. Meisner will not be 2nd in the 100 breast.

5. No one gets an A cut, in any individual event.

I’m a pretty kickass National Park

That is debateable.

1. Dekker will not win an event at MIAAs.

Pretty unlikely, but it could happen.

2. Heyboer will win only 1 event.

This is almost absurd. To say he will only win 2, and get beat in his third is a conservative guess, but saying he will only win 1 is stupid, not bold.

3. The 50 free will not see a B cut in the event.

This is not really bold. It is very likely no one goes a B cut in the 50. Do I think that there are a few with the ability to do so, yes, but it all has to come together at the right time.

4. Meisner will not be 2nd in the 100 breast.

Again absurdity not bold. I would say there is a better chance that he wins than he gets third. And his chances of winning are very minimal unless Soriano dq’s.

5. No one gets an A cut, in any individual event.

This again is not very bold. No one returning has an A cut and the people with the best chance to get A cuts are freshmen. And who knows how they will taper. I feel that there are about 3 people with a better than good chance at an A cut. Again it is if they put it all together at the right time.

SilentP wrote:

Actually Krone returns with an A cut in the 1650. No one comes in with 1, but Fonsy is the closest, followed by Krone in the 500, then Ellis in the back. I see about 3-4 A cuts from the meet.

Ellis was 50.77 in high school on his back right? I thought that was an ‘A’ cut. I’m not sure what the LCM times are for NCAA’s but a Senior Nat cut seems like it would be an ‘A’ cut too. I could be wrong though.

I will take the over on 3.5 ‘A’ cuts on the men’s side of the meet.

@facenorth wrote:

SilentP wrote:

Actually Krone returns with an A cut in the 1650. No one comes in with 1, but Fonsy is the closest, followed by Krone in the 500, then Ellis in the back. I see about 3-4 A cuts from the meet.

Ellis was 50.77 in high school on his back right? I thought that was an ‘A’ cut. I’m not sure what the LCM times are for NCAA’s but a Senior Nat cut seems like it would be an ‘A’ cut too. I could be wrong though.

I will take the over on 3.5 ‘A’ cuts on the men’s side of the meet.

True story
50.78 is the A Cut for the 100 back.

P wrote:

On a related note, Brian Miller had this theory that the SCM qualifying times were easier than the yards times and that we should do our mideseason meet in SCM to get more cuts. Genius idea

Either that or have Jenison set up the MIAA meet SCM instead of SCY.

@facenorth wrote:

P wrote:

On a related note, Brian Miller had this theory that the SCM qualifying times were easier than the yards times and that we should do our mideseason meet in SCM to get more cuts. Genius idea

Either that or have Jenison set up the MIAA meet SCM instead of SCY.

If Jenison did do that then there would be a lot of team and MIAA records set this year….

@facenorth wrote:

P wrote:

On a related note, Brian Miller had this theory that the SCM qualifying times were easier than the yards times and that we should do our mideseason meet in SCM to get more cuts. Genius idea

Either that or have Jenison set up the MIAA meet SCM instead of SCY.

I need to take credit for this, as I was the one who pointed this out several moons ago. I am not sure why I care, though…

i think this years 50 free will be a lot like the race in 2003…..i remember callam (kzoo) won with a 21.25, i think hamstra was ridiculously close 21.26 maybe, brad white was also right there at 21.3?…then there were 3 other token guys under 22, but not really in the race, i think crowley, kurtz and maybe heydlauff (sorry about the spelling if it’s wrong)….i don’t see anybody going much faster than 21.2 this year in the individual event, maybe if ellis swims it. Rose on the other hand will be very impressive in the 100, but i think the 50 might not be his event.

prediction:
2 B cuts and nobody faster than 21.2

Meisner will not get anything but 1st or 2nd in the 200 breast and 2nd would still be a bit of a suprise (stewie’s been drinking too much before posting)

I’m still thinking that the 100fly has the potential to be the most fun race to watch this time around. my money right now is on dekker, the kid’s fly has been on fire and he’s from kzoo. although if ellis swims it, i’d have to say that he would have to be the favorite.

i always like watching the swimmers who will have the biggest impact at nationals, because fast swims are just impressive. Krone, Ellis, Fonzi and Heyboer will all be very fun to watch and there are some guys like dekker, yuri, powers, meisner who could swim some damn impressive times.

Rose showed that he is the real deal when he split that 45 at Wheaton, thus everyone is expecting big things from him in the 100. This is a very reasonable expectation. What I cannot figure out is why Ellis’ 20.60 split is not being noticed as well. I’ll take ALL challenges (with the stakes being donations going to this website) that Ellis wins the 50. 2 caveats: Obviously if he doesn’t swim it the challenge is off, and if for some reason the guy doesn’t taper.

WIll he swim the 50? I would think he would. 20.6 is about 21.2 flat start. He will have a chance thats for sure

@swim5599 wrote:

WIll he swim the 50? I would think he would. 20.6 is about 21.2 flat start. He will have a chance thats for sure

Well then. Congrats on your 21.2 Jake Taber and tons of other HMSers who never achieved their projected flat start times (myself included).

I would think with exceptions plus .6 or .8 per 50 would be about right, from a split to a flat start. Of coure everyone knows of exceptions to the rule, but it would be farely accurate

now that i think about it, i bet kathy will bring ellis and fonzi all the way down for miaas….she’s confident that she can get them going for nats i’m sure.

because of that i think he’ll take the 50 in a time faster than 21.2

As far as Ellis in the 50, I think you have to throw the 20.6 relay split aside. I think he has been 21.82 in the open so far this year, which puts him behind Powers, CVB, and Rose. No offense but K is not exactly well know for being a sprint factory and I don’t think using a relay split is accurate. For example, Greiner split 21.2 on the end of a medley at mid season but only went 22.25. The whole second difference would not be the normal .6 or .8 that you would take off for a relay pick-up. Heylauff, Blohm, and Tuuk are other swimmers in the MIAA that have had a past for swimming much faster on relays.

Anyway back to Ellis, I think his training will determine a lot about how he performs in the 50. Not from K, I don’t know if he has been training sprint or free or more on back. I can tell you Rose, Powers, CVB, Holton, Voss, and RVZ are pure sprinters and will taper well in the 50 as a result.

As for Meisner getting 3rd in the 2 br, I would say it probably wont happen, but we probably would have said the same thing about Fodell beating Meisner in the 1 br last year. I think Booms has a shot to pull it off. You know Meisner will rest well but if he has an off swim/taper, Booms will be there to take second. As for Fonsy, I would hope to God he can get first.

@Captain Insano wrote:

Well then. Congrats on your 21.2 Jake Taber and tons of other HMSers who never achieved their projected flat start times (myself included).

Right Kurt, a once-in-a-life-time time-trialed relay split is an apt comparison to a midseason 3rd session relay split.

The real question is, if you are so confident in your analysis, are you willing to take me up on the offer!

What events is ellis entered in? We have talked about the 50 free, 100 Free, 100 fly, 100 back, and 200 back. He has to pick four so we should have a better idea once the psyche sheets come out. I would say he will go 50 fr, 100 back, 200 Back. K isn’t vying for a team title, they have third pretty well locked up now that toll is ineligible, so why swim two individual events on the same day? He will already be on 4 relays so why not spread out the individual events when he will be one of the favorites no matter what he swims.

i think a lot of this depends on how you look at the miaa meet…..many people are picking olivet to win, many picking hope. the hope vs. olivet meet went easily to olivet at 189-109. The kzoo vs. olivet meet went easily to olivet at 187-112. Looking just purely at these scores (i didn’t go through and look at the events, best times and other intangibles), i’d be thinking that the boys in kzoo think that they’re not competing for 3rd anymore but for at least 2nd.

and as we know, depth plays a much larger role at miaas, but with olivet, hope and kzoo having top end talent, calvin with a little less and albion having it’s strengths, it could come down to the studs when looking at 2nd and 3rd place.

Maverick have you been drinking?

@DonCheadle wrote:

Right Kurt, a once-in-a-life-time time-trialed relay split is an apt comparison to a midseason 3rd session relay split.

I am not sure whether you are referring to Jake or me, or both. I guess it doesn’t matter.

@DonCheadle wrote:

The real question is, if you are so confident in your analysis, are you willing to take me up on the offer!

I’ll take you up on the offer on the grounds that I don’t have to name who beats Ellis, just that he loses. Maybe that was already implied.

Also, for those of you who suggest a SCM meet so that MIAA can qualify more to NCAA’s, and also think that Hope’s various TT relay qualifications were unfair to other NCAA teams, please explain the difference in fairness between these two scenarios.

today is my day off, so it wouldn’t be out of the question…..it is a little early though.

do you think the kzoo team has a goal of getting 3rd though? aren’t goals supposed to be something that you strive for, that shouldn’t be easily attained? all i’m saying is that they’re most likely looking for 2nd, not 3rd and this would be true even if calvin had toll.

Days off are nice. There are many types of goals and if Kzoo’s goal is second at MIAA that is fine and dandy. But I will do the same bet that cheadle has done with ellis and the 50 that Kzoo will get third at MIAA’s.

Mavrick,
Are you joking? How on earth is K going to get second at Leagues? Just because both Hope and K teams lost by a similar amount to Olivet, does not mean that they are equally as strong. They swam at very different points of the season, Many of Olivets top times so far are coming from the meet with Hope. Also, if you are lookng at dual meet scores don’t forget to look at the score of the K vs. Hope dual, it was slightly one sided.

Goals are supposed to be 3 things:
1. conceivable
2. believable
3. achievable

Kazoo’s goal is what?

If they are going to have the GOAL of 2nd why not just say the GOAL is to win? If you set goals that are not attainable that makes what actually happens a lot harder to deal with. I understood Mavericks post, i just don’t think it’s very justified.

Stevo kind of has a point. If K’s goal is to get second, and everybody is expecting a nailbiter for first between Hope and Olivet, then wouldn’t K be selling themselves short if they didn’t think they could sneak up on everybody and win the meet?

However, maverick also has a point. If K feels confident they can get third, then wouldn’t it be reasonable for them to set their sights a little higher and strive for second? If they still end up third, hey, at least they tried!

And I know nothing about who’s swimming what, but my gut tells me Ellis will swim the 2 back over the 1 free. He’s probably guaranteed a top 2 finish in the back, whereas the 100 free looks to be rather unpredictable.

couple things to cover here….

1) Kzoo should be setting a goal of getting second. Is it a hard fought battle, yes, is it a long shot, yes. But why would they set a league team goal of 3rd when they so obviously have it wrapped up. I remember back in the day when we would get crushed by kzoo at leagues our goal was still to get first. Why, since realistically we really had no shot, b/c there was no competition for 2nd. Does this statement mean I think they will get 2nd, no, do I think that it will be close, no. As far as what goals should be I see this goal fitting all three criteria. Something beyond magically has to come over them, but I don’t see why that goal is so proposterious.

2) Ellis in the 50. Being that I have no idea what his training is, blah blah blah I can only make some guesses. So here they are, he will do well in the 50 but if I had to choose someone to win it would not be him, in it or not. The same goes for the 2 back, only with a greater margin of victory. There will not be a race for first here. 20.6 is impressive but nothing that translate into being the favorite especially if he was 21.8 this year, Stevo can back me up here being the master of great relay 50s. As for cheadle’s comment about tabers 20.6 in the TT, sure maybe he jumped but if you look at the results it was legal. Now if my memory serves me correctly (which it might not) the TT was done at the end of the second day. Which means that was after 4 sessions, how is that different than ellis’ in the 3rd session? One more thing, if he is so good at the 50, i mean should be predicted to win, why do y’all think he will go the 2 back (i think he will go the 2 back) why wouldn’t he go the hundred, although different races but if you are a favorite in the 50 same goes for the hundred. Also probably the most offensive thing i am going to say to all the kzoo guys is this, being that I have only seen him in a couple of swims during the season, I haven’t bought into the hype yet, though its one of those things where I am almost positive I will be proved wrong in a week.

3) The scoring that was done by the zoo guys, no offense meant, I don’t buy it, and here’s why. When a person scores out the meet (on predicted times) they always have their team swimming faster than the other teams (comparatively). Like if a guy from hope scores it out, I bet they have hope beating olivet. Point is, zoo biased scoring probably has zoo swimming better than what they will. Does this mean I don’t think they will swim well, no, does this mean that I think hope isn’t going to win, no. The meet will be close, but I am reserving all use of meet scoring until the pyshe sheet, even then, I won’t be completely sold.

4) The important stuff that doesn’t belong here. Hope will win both relays at the alumni meet, along with no less than 3 other events. PBG sets a new meet record in the 50 fly and I don’t crack the top 3.

Sorry if I caused offense, didn’t mean to, and i’m sure everyone will tell me how stupid i am soon enough. Also, really didn’t mean to write so much. See y’all soon.

@Stevo wrote:

If they are going to have the GOAL of 2nd why not just say the GOAL is to win? If you set goals that are not attainable that makes what actually happens a lot harder to deal with. I understood Mavericks post, i just don’t think it’s very justified.

Thanks for the brilliant commentary. I still say that my fourth graders can probably read better than you, since what maverick actually did was use an understatement….

@maverick wrote:

i’d be thinking that the boys in kzoo think that they’re not competing for 3rd anymore but for at least 2nd.

and as we know, depth plays a much larger role at miaas, but with olivet, hope and kzoo having top end talent, calvin with a little less and albion having it’s strengths, it could come down to the studs when looking at 2nd and 3rd place.

The second paragraph that I’ve quoted there also provides justification, if you can read good.

Now maverick, correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you are implying that Kalamazoo should be thinking that 2nd place will be about studs, which Kalamazoo has, and anybody who is thinking that 2nd place is attainable might start to think that 1st could be in reach if the team has a phenomenal meet. And now you are going to try and ask me how Kalamazoo could possibly think they are going to have a phenomenal meet, and I’ll respond how could they not have a phenomenal meet since that is what they are preparing to have, hence, making 1st place a goal that is conceivable (we just thought of it right now, I’m sure they did), believable (people can believe anything), achievable (I’m pretty sure I just pointed out that if somebody is thinking that the meet will come down to studs that it is attainable).

Sorry for writing so much. I just did a Flesch-Kincaid analysis to determine grade level and it ends up this is 12.0. Hope that’s okay.

P.S. maverick’s original post was 10th grade reading level, so maybe my students would have trouble with it, too.

@stewie wrote:

No offense but K is not exactly well know for being a sprint factory

Well, I do agree with you that Kalamazoo isn’t known for it, but I disagree that it is completely true. Kalamazoo puts up a fight, despite the fact that Hope comes up a little bit better, especially when we are talking about the 200 free relay.

50 Free MIAA Champions All-Time:
Kalamazoo: 14
Hope: 15
Albion: 5
Adrian: 1
Calvin: 1

50 Free Champions Past 10 Years
Kalamazoo: 4
Hope: 6

Hope is clearly more impressive when you start comparing Blohm and Peel to everyone else, but my only point is just that Kalamazoo really should not be counted out because of “history.” One point I will concede is that while Kathy has been coach at Kalamazoo, Hope has produced a 20.67 and the fastest Kalamazoo has produced was 90.94.

Of course, since Kalamazoo has 25 championship titles and Hope only has 9, I guess the 50 is clearly a less-strong event for Kalamazoo compared to our overall historic success.

and the fastest Kalamazoo has produced was 90.94.

Wow, that’s pretty bad.

😀

@SwexasTim wrote:

I remember back in the day when we would get crushed by kzoo at leagues our goal was still to get first. Why, since realistically we really had no shot, b/c there was no competition for 2nd.

Remember 2003 sitting around and scoring out the meet at the t-lodge, trying to see if Calvin really could beat us? Without Face, Warren and Sunny the goal that year was to get 2nd.

At least I think so.

@Derek wrote:

Of course, since Kalamazoo has 25 championship titles and Hope only has 9, I guess the 50 is clearly a less-strong event for Kalamazoo compared to our overall historic success.

Actually, if you add in the history of the men’s and the women’s teams, Hope and Kalamazoo each have 30 championships. So Mr. “Freedom Writer” Jansen, can’t we all get along?

no, we can’t get along. i don’t post often but i like reading these forums.

here’s some food for thought, albion has passed hope on the usnews rankings:

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/edu/college/rankings/brief/t1libartco_brief.php

i always thought i could read/write at a 10th grade level or better, and maverick’s post did make sense to me so i’m really glad i didn’t go to hope right about now 🙂

Now maverick, correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you are implying that Kalamazoo should be thinking that 2nd place will be about studs, which Kalamazoo has, and anybody who is thinking that 2nd place is attainable might start to think that 1st could be in reach if the team has a phenomenal meet. And now you are going to try and ask me how Kalamazoo could possibly think they are going to have a phenomenal meet

I would actually ask you how you think 2nd place will be about studs?

Sorry for writing so much. I just did a Flesch-Kincaid analysis to determine grade level and it ends up this is 12.0. Hope that’s okay.

P.S. maverick’s original post was 10th grade reading level, so maybe my students would have trouble with it, too.

I find it very amusing that you are doing a reading level analysis of online forum posts. Wow jansen you’re sweet!

and sarah, I’m glad i didn’t go to a school that had to take a huge winter break in order to save money on heating all the buildings in the winter.

what i’m saying is that in this meet, the studs will dictate a little bit more than they may have in the past.

if ellis and dekker can win 3 events, if fonzi can win 2 then the team starts to look like the 2004 miaa team from kzoo that was second place by 40 points (with paul ellis starring as andrew kurtz, dekker as scott whitbeck and fonzi as tony holt). add in the two relay wins as opposed to 1 (we only won the 800 free relay in 2004, and there’s basically no chance that they don’t win the medleys) and you have a team that is going to be fighting for momentum throughout this meet.

let me clarify for iguessthatsme or w3ndell,

momentum as we know is a vector product of velocity and mass. in the instance where i say that kzoo could have momentum by winning events i mean that the direction (vector) of the momentum will be in kzoo’s favor if they win many events with many guys (mass) and they have a lot of good swims in order to win these events (velocity) that momentum could be in their favor and help them gain a lot of ground on 1st of 2nd place.

😀

maverick are we talking about momentum or results? On this forum i would say it would be more applicable to talk about results. Let the current swimmers figure our what their goals are. I will talk results and Hope/Olivet would have to disqualify a couple relays, and have a terrible taper, along with K swimming a Phenomenal meet to finish second.

Just my thoughts.

no, we can’t get along. i don’t post often but i like reading these forums.

here’s some food for thought, albion has passed hope on the usnews rankings:

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/edu/college/rankings/brief/t1libartco_brief.php

i always thought i could read/write at a 10th grade level or better, and maverick’s post did make sense to me so i’m really glad i didn’t go to hope right about now

I have two things to say about this:

1. You are just a woman with a small brain.
2. You know those results are based on households with only one tv and other things of that nature.

Also, Wendell, you are an idiot.

stevo, you know i can’t talk about results yet because it’s all just speculation 🙂

stiles though I do not condone the sexist comments you made, I, with great enthusiasm, applaud your use of anchorman….congratulations and thanks.

Hey stiles love you too. Oh btw your cute. And Kzoo still isnt getting second no matter how you look at it. Sooooo the point is its between two teams Hope and Olivet. Kzoo has studs but are not a good enough team to compete and thats the truth son.

@Stevo wrote:

Wow jansen you’re sweet!

Thank you!

By the way, proper nouns (for instance, names) are supposed to start with a capital letter. Speaking of my fourth graders, they all know that, too…

@Derek wrote:

@Stevo wrote:

Wow jansen you’re sweet!

Thank you!

By the way, proper nouns (for instance, names) are supposed to start with a capital letter. Speaking of my fourth graders, they all know that, too…

itZ cuz thay hav sutch a swete teecher

@Derek wrote:

@Stevo wrote:

Wow jansen you’re sweet!

Thank you!

By the way, proper nouns (for instance, names) are supposed to start with a capital letter. Speaking of my fourth graders, they all know that, too…

This has reached an all-time low…seriously. I thought this was a swimming forum?

Very clever going back to the ol’ US News Rankings…that hasn’t been beaten into the ground before.

I’m just jealous that my Hope diploma isn’t just a flipped-over placemat from Denny’s. Turn yours over…you’ll find the crayon marks and pork dribblins.

Hey, hey….

I’m sure that those who have graduated are very proud of their crayon marks. I know that I’m working very hard on my crayon proficiency – I hear you can’t graduate without it.

As for pork dribblins, don’t hate. Everyone knows that pork is delicious. Especially when it’s pulled.

@W3ndell wrote:

2. Heyboer will win only 1 event.

This is almost absurd. To say he will only win 2, and get beat in his third is a conservative guess, but saying he will only win 1 is stupid, not bold.

Well, only 1 out of 5 isn’t very good, but it’s better than none. And this was “stupid”! I will say no more because Heyboer swam a great 200 back.