2020 NCAA Selections

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

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barbotus
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Team Affiliation: Denison

2020 NCAA Selections

Post by barbotus » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:36 pm

Mostly just checking to see if anyone but bots will be posting here this year. Did some initial calcs on the women's side and first glance is that it won't go beyond line 20. Although I guess it's somewhat subject to where someone with multiple potential entries (e.g. Crile Hart, et al) is ultimately entered.

Before knowing anything about entries I calculated 286 different names currently in top 20 swims and top 20 relays. That leaves 4 extra after accounting for 29 divers. I eyeballed the list and I see about 8 swimmers with more than 3 individual top 20 times, so I assume that once their entries are down to 3 that 8-10 additional swimmers might qualify which will kick it back to line 19. Or at least that's what it feels like at the moment.
Last edited by barbotus on Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

pops
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by pops » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:12 pm

Thanks for posting; I've been checking to, as well as probably a few others. I havent done the whole list, and probably wont get to it this year, but will follow along.

barbotus
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by barbotus » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:19 pm

So the Pre-Selection Psych sheets posted today. I'm only focused on women, since I have one on the bubble.

Based on what I can tell it looks like taking 20 rows of individuals and 20 rows of relays will exceed the cap. By how much I cannot say because of the uncertainty of the makeups of the 400 Medley and 800 Free Relays. I think the other relays are pretty straightforward as the seeds align with what is in USAS Times Database. The 400 Medley only throws one slot into question as CMU is in at 19 and Wesleyan (who showed as 20 in USAS ) is out.

But the 800 Free Relay is messier. Wash U and Rhodes are in from outside the USAS Top 20 with aggregate entries, and some other schools move around on their own aggregate entries.

I think the upshot of all of this is that relays will drop to row 19, with some but not all of row 20 added back, and then possibly a few individual swimmers from row 21 added. Not knowing the exact names of submitted relays really makes it difficult for me to figure out any further. I guess we'll know for sure tomorrow.

pops
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by pops » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:40 pm

I don’t remember and am too lazy to look back- will they take swimmers from row 21 ahead of relays in row 20? Is that to take the last 1-3 swimmers to hit the cap instead of 4 extra relay swimmers (or 1-2 individuals instead of 3 relay swimmers if they have a qualified swimmer)

barbotus
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by barbotus » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:05 am

I’m honestly not sure. I THINK that the protocol calls for top 20 swimmers in individual events. Then add as many relays as can fit under the cap, up to 20 max. At some point if the next relay added would go over the cap, you add more individual swimmers until you reach the cap. Unless there’s more than a one line disparity between relays and individuals. I think that disparity is between the last full line of individuals and swimmers, but not sure.

I’ve got a kid on line 19, so I think she might be safe. For now. There may be some decisions to be made after diving.

pops
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by pops » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:11 pm

Thanks
Also remember there is a team cap on entries that has affected Emory women and Denison men in recent years

bobcatchronic
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by bobcatchronic » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:11 am

The selection process is:

1) Top 16 for each individual event first
2) Top 16 relays for each relay event
3) Add individuals filling out line by line so that all events have an equal number of entries until the cap is met (i.e. if the 100 fly gets to line 19 after relay entries but the 200 breast is only at 16, three more breaststrokers are added before any more flyers).
4) Once you can't fill out an entire line anymore, then they go by seed times closest to the record in their event by percentage.

No more than 16 relays are invited in any single event. Sounds like if you crunched the entries based on 20 relays and got to row 20 for individual, then your daughter is pretty safely in at line 19.

themayor
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by themayor » Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:53 pm

here you go, if you haven't already seen them.
Attachments
Men's Psych Sheet.pdf
(38.06 KiB) Downloaded 112 times
women's psych sheet.pdf
(75.71 KiB) Downloaded 112 times

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WilliamWallace
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by WilliamWallace » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:19 am

Invited swimmers sheet
Attachments
20 2 26 D3 Men's Invited Swimmers by Team.PDF
(58.51 KiB) Downloaded 111 times
20 2 26 D3 Women's Invited Swimmers by Team.PDF
(71.25 KiB) Downloaded 105 times
Soldier: "You're not William Wallace! William Wallace is seven feet tall!"
Wallace: "Yes, I’ve heard, and if he were here today, he’d consume the English with fireballs from his eyes, and lighting bolts from his arse."

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WilliamWallace
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by WilliamWallace » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:19 am

Anyone score it out?
Soldier: "You're not William Wallace! William Wallace is seven feet tall!"
Wallace: "Yes, I’ve heard, and if he were here today, he’d consume the English with fireballs from his eyes, and lighting bolts from his arse."

barbotus
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Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by barbotus » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:29 pm

Swimswam did.

https://swimswam.com/denison-leads-scor ... s-revealed

It appears that Denison qualified both Men (1) and Women (2) divers. Both teams were at 18 and will have to decide what to do with rosters by tomorrow afternoon.

barbotus
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Team Affiliation: Denison

Re: 2020 NCAA Selections

Post by barbotus » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:53 pm

As least one alternate on each side should make the cut. According to my source one male and one female relay only swimmer have been taken off the Denison roster to make way for divers.

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