Women's NESCACS

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RetiredJet
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Women's NESCACS

Post by RetiredJet » Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:30 am

With night just a few days away figured we should get a thread going for the women's meet.

After the BU invite I still think Williams has the edge but holy cow the Tufts women are deep:
Hannah Lesser: 24.1/52.8 Free 25.1/57.8 Fly
Emily Mendelson: 2:12/435 IM 2:23 200 breast
Katherine Sweetser: 52.70 100 free 25.6/57.2/2:08.2 Fly
Katelin Ulmer: 24.0 (23.3 Split)/ 53.4 Free 1:07/226 Breast

Not sure what Hoyt will be doing for the women this year since NESCACS is so close but even still it's crazy if those girls were left off the team.

Will give a more in-depth preview as the week goes on but hopefully, some other people with knowledge of other teams can share their predictions.

polarbear
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by polarbear » Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:16 pm

Is the psych sheet up yet?

Borg
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by Borg » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:23 am

polarbear wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:16 pm
Is the psych sheet up yet?
From NESCAC manual:
Tuesday
Psych sheet posted on (NESCAC) website by 8 p.m. and emailed to each coach Wednesday by 6 p.m.
---------------------
Last year, names appeared in "Live Results" around 12PM Tuesday
Psyche sheet appeared Tuesday evening

https://www.nescac.com/sports/swimdive/ ... omen/index

Borg
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by Borg » Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:40 am

"Live Results" and Meet Mobile are displaying the women's entries

http://upload.swimcloud.com/166270/

bobcatchronic
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by bobcatchronic » Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:13 pm

I removed out the extra swims from the psych sheet and scored it out a bit. Here is what I came up with by finals/consoles/bonus/not scoring (including diving) for the presumed top 5:

Tufts: 44/18/2/4
Williams: 28/20/12/7
Amherst: 26/13/13/16
Bates: 15/27/18/8
Bowdoin: 10/16/12/27

Tufts will likely come back down a little from that massive "A" total since their times are a bit inflated compared to others' from MIT and this past weekend, but they definitely will be posing a serious challenge to Williams. Bates and Amherst look like they're going to be pretty close together fighting for third, and Bowdoin appears to be a tier below.

bobcatchronic
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by bobcatchronic » Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:14 pm

I removed out the extra swims from the psych sheet and scored it out a bit. Here is what I came up with by finals/consoles/bonus/not scoring (including diving) for the presumed top 5:

Tufts: 44/18/2/4
Williams: 28/20/12/7
Amherst: 26/13/13/16
Bates: 15/27/18/8
Bowdoin: 10/16/12/27

Tufts will likely come back down a little from that massive "A" total since their times are a bit inflated compared to others' from MIT and this past weekend, but they definitely will be posing a serious challenge to Williams. Bates and Amherst look like they're going to be pretty close together fighting for third, and Bowdoin appears to be a tier below.

imJumbo
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by imJumbo » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:07 am

I’ll be honest, that is a shockingly high tufts A seed group. Yes, absolutely they will come down, but I’ll be honest if I said I wasn’t surprised by that strength of seed. Williams likely still has the meet, but it may be much closer than we previously thought.

zzz
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by zzz » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:32 am

bobcatchronic wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:14 pm
I removed out the extra swims from the psych sheet and scored it out a bit. Here is what I came up with by finals/consoles/bonus/not scoring (including diving) for the presumed top 5:

Tufts: 44/18/2/4
Williams: 28/20/12/7
Amherst: 26/13/13/16
Bates: 15/27/18/8
Bowdoin: 10/16/12/27

Tufts will likely come back down a little from that massive "A" total since their times are a bit inflated compared to others' from MIT and this past weekend, but they definitely will be posing a serious challenge to Williams. Bates and Amherst look like they're going to be pretty close together fighting for third, and Bowdoin appears to be a tier below.
I'm not seeing the 44 for Tufts after taking out the extra swims. I only see that if counting all swims, including extras, and possibly counting all divers as Finalists?

bobcatchronic
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by bobcatchronic » Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:08 pm

I double checked my numbers and came up with 43, but close enough. As I said, it does include divers (6 A Finalists for Tufts based on their best 6 dive scores in-season, not based on the psych sheet which is based on 11 dive scores), and includes the rankings after all scratches - i.e. if someone is seeded 10th on the psych sheet but two swimmers seeded 5th and 7th from other teams are likely to scratch, I counted that as an A final.

RetiredJet
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by RetiredJet » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:00 pm

Night One Preview:
800 Free Relay
NESCACs is finally here! Should be a great first night of racing and with only 1 relay tonight I expect teams to throw their best athletes at it. Since we only have one event tonight I’m going a little more in depth with my analysis but wanted to share my thoughts.

1) Williams – This is probably Williams best relay and they are led by Westphal (who even if she isn’t fully shaved and tapered will probably go 1:47ish). Delano, Craig and Maloy all return for last years runner up at NCAA (and all split 1:50). There is just too much firepower here for any team to seriously threaten them this year.
2) Tufts – If I was Hoyt, I would have no idea what to do in this situation. He has 7 athletes (Hufziger, Socha, Deveveny, Brennan, Isakoff, Claus, and Goetcheus) with 1:52’s this season. I have to assume Hufziger (1:49 split last year) and Socha (who is just a beast all around) will be on the A. Then pick any other 2 out of the group listed above to fill out their A. Hot take I do think their B relay will be a top 5 finisher in the overall race.
3) Amherst – There are not many teams who can lose 3/4 legs and still be a top 3 team. Amherst returns Rumpelt (1:50.8) but they have a slew of athletes around 1:52high/1:53low. I think they don’t quite have the depth to keep up with Tufts, but I think they have enough to stay in front of Conn.
4) Conn – They return 3/4 of their legs but they lose Haskell who was probably their best 200 swimmer (1:50 split). The biggest issue they have is they do not really have anyone who can replace her. They do return Higgins (1:52), Ford (1:51) and Ammon (1:51) but their next best leg appears to be Shea who has been going best times in season (Marc has a way of getting his kids to drop crazy times) but I’m not sure it will be enough to catch Amherst.
5) Bates – They only lost Faust of their A relay from last year but their biggest weakness is lack of a great 200 swimmer. I think they will go Reynoso Williams (1:53), Bucki (1:54), Sweeney (153.3) and Strynar (1:53) but without someone who is around 1:50 I think they would struggle to move up. Additionally, I don’t think they will push any teams above them, but I also don’t think any teams below them will come close so they will probably be in no mans land in the A heat.
6) Wesleyan- Wesleyan has two very good legs (O’Halloran -1:52 and Murphy-1:52) but they fall off a bit after that. I think Gibbs (1:56) and Townsend (1:56) are their next best options. The biggest question on this relay is do they swim Murphy she is so versatile that she can swim on every relay and if Solomon decides not to swim her expect them to drop down a few places.
7) Colby – While they do return all their legs from last year, they have brought in some freshman who should help their relays improve. Paige is the anchor of this relay (1:53) and the way she has been swimming she could be even faster. After Paige I expect their next legs (Griffin, Hata, Loomas) to all be around 1:54-1:56. They could challenge Wesleyan depending on who swims.
8) Bowdoin – Bowdoin is the biggest wildcard in this relay because of how they want to use Laurita this weekend. She has an LTB of 1:53.1 but she is a great sprinter (which makes me think this might be the relay she gest left off of). Fosburgh (1:53) and Laurita both swimming would put them closer to Wesleyan but without Laurita I think they fall down to 8th. To be fair Bowdoin has had great relays so if someone like Moody (1:54) or Gearan (1:55) drop they could push Colby.
9) Middlebury – Another team plagued by graduation (3 out of their 4 legs are gone from last year). Most of their legs will be around 1:55-1:57 and without a breakout swim I don’t think they can really go up from here.
10) Hamilton- A very young team who did not lose any seniors from last year but brought in a few new faster swimmers. Unfortunately, while they are improving, I only see them competing with Trinity this year. Hamann, Martin, Karlson, and Logan all have best times around 1:56-1:57 so not sure how high they can really go.
11) Trinity- Still trying to find their stride with brining in top end talent. I think they can push Hamilton but will struggle to keep up with anyone else. Matlashewski, Papalski, Fournier, and Umholtz are all around 1:57’s so anything below 7:50 tonight would be great for them.

bobcatchronic
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by bobcatchronic » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:03 pm

Great in depth summary for all of the teams. I would bet that Williams and Tufts combine for the top 4 times tonight in some order.

Not sure I agree with you about Amherst/Conn/Bates. I'm curious, what makes you think Amherst has a slew of 1:52/1:53's? Last year, only 3 of their 8 legs split under 1:54, and one graduated. Jess Gordon has been 1:54 this season, but I don't see a fourth unless someone makes a big drop. For Bates, I would guess that Smart swims this relay instead of Strynar. She doesn't appear to have swum a rested 200 for a few years, but I think she'd be capable of a pretty big split based on her 200 back and her 5:08 in-season. I think these three relays will be pretty closely grouped together.

RetiredJet
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by RetiredJet » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:46 pm

bobcatchronic wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:03 pm
Great in depth summary for all of the teams. I would bet that Williams and Tufts combine for the top 4 times tonight in some order.

Not sure I agree with you about Amherst/Conn/Bates. I'm curious, what makes you think Amherst has a slew of 1:52/1:53's? Last year, only 3 of their 8 legs split under 1:54, and one graduated. Jess Gordon has been 1:54 this season, but I don't see a fourth unless someone makes a big drop. For Bates, I would guess that Smart swims this relay instead of Strynar. She doesn't appear to have swum a rested 200 for a few years, but I think she'd be capable of a pretty big split based on her 200 back and her 5:08 in-season. I think these three relays will be pretty closely grouped together.

Amherst has Jessica Gordon (LTB-1:53.05), Sarah McDonald (LTB-1:53.79) and Grace Tarantola(LTB-1:52.70). Granted they might not swim those times (or they could be faster with relay starts). I just looked last year Gordon didn't swim the 800 probably because they had some great seniors but now with graduation she might be added to the list.

As for Bates I was going purely off of LTB. Smart has swum a 1:56 this year to Strynar 1:57 but their LTBS are 1:53.6 and 1:55.8 so as someone with no knowledge of Bates I just went with the faster swimmer.

I do agree that Conn, Amherst and Bates will be battling together it will just depend on who has a great swim.

polarbear
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by polarbear » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:55 pm

The best time analysis is a good way to go, but not sure that it encompasses the whole story this year. For example -- Wes had a pretty special NESCAC meet last year, and while they may be able to do it again, a number of those swimmers have been out of the pool for times this year.

Here are my thoughts:
[*]Williams - tons of depth and the fastest front end speed
[*]Tufts - tons of quality depth
[*]Amherst - could sneak into 2d with a good swim, but unlikely
[*]Bates - Smart has been 4:59 in the 500 and appears to have more sprint speed this year than in the past. She has been out injured some, but if she is on they could have a strong relay
[*]Bowdoin - not sure they have the horses without Kemp but excited to see what a relay of some combination of Fosburgh-Eguchi-Maroney-Moody-Gearan-Roberts can do. that being said, the women have not swum well at the lats two NESCAC meets
[*]Conn - could move up, but Ford and Ammon have not been as fast in season as last year
[*]Colby - Paige is improving and overall they have had a great season, but not sure they have the depth
[*]Wes - graduated too much, too much inconsistency
[*]Trin
[*]Ham

bobcatchronic
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by bobcatchronic » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:20 pm

To quote 100 Breast: forgot to include midd which seems like a solid metaphor

polarbear
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Re: Women's NESCACS

Post by polarbear » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:43 pm

bobcatchronic wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:20 pm
To quote 100 Breast: forgot to include midd which seems like a solid metaphor
Ha - true. Its also evidence that I cannot count to 11

If everyone swims well they could be ok - Hsi, Cantrell, Gantt, Haensly should be stronger than Trin, Ham, maybe Wes

P.S. For Bowdoin I forgot Wargo who has been 1:55 as a freshman I believe. She swam a great 200 fly against Bates this year . . .

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