Jason Lezak?

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screeeeeeeeech
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Jason Lezak?

Post by screeeeeeeeech » Sun Jul 24, 2011 5:29 pm

He and GWG sharted during the 4x1 at worlds today. Why is he still on relays? The guy is 35! I understand he was there in 2008, but it's now 2011. Time to blood someone else into the 4x1, like Lochte or even Grevers...
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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by Chris Knight » Mon Jul 25, 2011 11:17 am

Grevers is not at the meet as he did not qualify. I agree that the relay was off, though I'm not confident enough to say whether performance or selection was chiefly to blame. I think some younger folks will emerge next summer (Feigen? Schneider? Hill? Who else?) and shake up the possibilities somewhat, but USAS has to recognize that while it's nice to have veterans, at some point the value of experience < oldness.

Edit: Forgot to mention that I was pleasantly surprised with how well the US women fared. A dissapointing performance in the moment, to be caught from behind, but based on how all 3 relays did in Beijing (2, 3, 2) and Rome (7, 2, 10) I thought we'd be years away from winning on the world stage again. Now, giving Franklin and Coughlin another year to develop / shake off cobwebs respectively, I think they'll definitely have a shot.

Also, the Men's Medley on Sunday will be closer than ever. Every team seems to be 3 legged, at least right now (before the individual 1 fly and 1 free).
Japan: #3 in world rankings for 1st 3 legs, but no free. Best BR leg among these 4.
Australia: Nobody up in back, unclear how Huegill will perform over 100m. Best anchor.
France: Did/will not final anybody in Breast or fly. Best BK
US: Got guys up in back and breast, but will be behind, and will lose ground on free to France and AUS. Best fly leg.

I think Phelps needs to go 49.9 at the bare minimum.
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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by DonCheadle » Mon Jul 25, 2011 12:45 pm

Chris Knight wrote:Grevers is not at the meet as he did not qualify. I agree that the relay was off, though I'm not confident enough to say whether performance or selection was chiefly to blame. I think some younger folks will emerge next summer (Feigen? Schneider? Hill? Who else?) and shake up the possibilities somewhat, but USAS has to recognize that while it's nice to have veterans, at some point the value of experience < oldness.
The short of it is Lezak was on the relay because he qualified for the spot. It had nothing to do with experience. I agree, it was performance, not slection that was too blame. Weber Gale lead off in prelims in a 48.49 but then split a 48.33 at night. Yuck. Besides, Lezak had a good split (48.15). It was .13 faster than Lochte's prelims split (48.28) and .04 slower than Walter faster (48.15). Noone else who is there could have reasonably been expected to outsplit 48.1.

Hill and Fiegen yes, but Schneider doesn't even swim the 100. Hill is the wildcard. His stroke and size lends him to Long Course, and he just turned 20 so I htink he is going to keep improving. If you gave me 20-1 odds for him to WIN the 100 free at the Olympics I would take it (although I am taking Moscov, and I am thinking that bodog will WAY undervalue him).
Chris Knight wrote: Also, the Men's Medley on Sunday will be closer than ever. Every team seems to be 3 legged, at least right now (before the individual 1 fly and 1 free).
Japan: #3 in world rankings for 1st 3 legs, but no free. Best BR leg among these 4.
Australia: Nobody up in back, unclear how Huegill will perform over 100m. Best anchor.
France: Did/will not final anybody in Breast or fly. Best BK
US: Got guys up in back and breast, but will be behind, and will lose ground on free to France and AUS. Best fly leg.

I think Phelps needs to go 49.9 at the bare minimum.
Japan had a lead of of 48.8 in prelims of the 400 free relay. That is enough to get it done. They win this relay.
I see pretty big short coming for the other 3 unless (as you said) Phelps can destroy the field in the fly split. I think he might. His 100 fly has continued to improve. I think he will be 49 in the open.
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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by Chris Knight » Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:23 pm

DonCheadle wrote:Japan had a lead of of 48.8 in prelims of the 400 free relay. That is enough to get it done. They win this relay.
That was Takuro Fuji. He is their best flyer as well, seeded 51.8 in the individual (9th seed, but ranked 3rd for 2011). Next best 1 free time from the relay was a 48.8 split - Adrian will beat that fo' sho'. I expect Japan will have the 300m lead but it'll be a great race.
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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by DonCheadle » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:10 pm

Chris Knight wrote:
DonCheadle wrote:Japan had a lead of of 48.8 in prelims of the 400 free relay. That is enough to get it done. They win this relay.
That was Takuro Fuji. He is their best flyer as well, seeded 51.8 in the individual (9th seed, but ranked 3rd for 2011). Next best 1 free time from the relay was a 48.8 split - Adrian will beat that fo' sho'. I expect Japan will have the 300m lead but it'll be a great race.
Right you are. Can either of those 200 flyers swim a 100 fly? I suppose not, because they don't even have the event qualfiying time. I was looking over the 2009 world champ results; it comes across poorly, but I think Phelps has a point when he said that taking the suits away will show who the real swimmers are.
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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by Chris Knight » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:21 pm

Yeah but I'm still annoyed at how he and Bowman so blatantly switched positiosn as soon as he lost to Biedermann. To them it's like the "suit era" began and ended with the Jaked suit, but we saw a huge incease in WRs in 2008, too, when the LZR came out. Yet back then, it was "what controversy? Everybody has access to the LZR! New technology is good for the sport!" Give me a break.

Biedermann showed he had no business going 3:40 2 years ago, but he's still a force in the 200. He will be tough tomorrow, as will Park with his new speed.
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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by imJumbo » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:20 pm

Chris Knight wrote:Yeah but I'm still annoyed at how he and Bowman so blatantly switched positiosn as soon as he lost to Biedermann. To them it's like the "suit era" began and ended with the Jaked suit, but we saw a huge incease in WRs in 2008, too, when the LZR came out. Yet back then, it was "what controversy? Everybody has access to the LZR! New technology is good for the sport!" Give me a break.

Biedermann showed he had no business going 3:40 2 years ago, but he's still a force in the 200. He will be tough tomorrow, as will Park with his new speed.
I think what Phelps and Bowman are talking about as the "tech" suits do more apply to the Jaked and circa 2009 suits. If you look at the times people swam last year, they were fairly close to the Olympic times (given that it was the middle year of the cycle). And now the times they are swimming this year as opposed to the Olympic year, they are pretty close as well. Already there has been a 100 back and 100 breast faster than the winning Olympic time for men. And the 400 Free was what, 0.3 off the winning time by the same guy? And we're still a year out of the Olympics.

I think when we look back on it, we're going to realize that yes, the suits in 2009 had a HUGE impact on the times swimmers were able to accomplish. And the suits in both 2008 and 2009 made swimmers faster than they should have been, but not my too much. And it certainly helped those not at the very top more. If anyone wants to bet that Phelps would have lost any of his golds had all of the swimmers been swimming in Textile suits, then that person is 100% crazy. The best in 2008 were the best in the sport. In 2009, that cannot be said with 100% accuracy.

I do think that before 2016, men will be allowed to wear 100% permeable body suits again (like the FS-Pro of 2007). I think we will realize that those suits, provided they can't aid in floatation, don't help much. And given the data, I think FINA will bow to the suit companies, realizing that to the swimmers, there is no difference, merely a personal preference to the suits. On taper, it's all about "look fast, feel fast, swim fast."

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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by DonCheadle » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:55 pm

imJumbo wrote: [I think what Phelps and Bowman are talking about as the "tech" suits do more apply to the Jaked and circa 2009 suits. If you look at the times people swam last year, they were fairly close to the Olympic times (given that it was the middle year of the cycle). And now the times they are swimming this year as opposed to the Olympic year, they are pretty close as well. Already there has been a 100 back and 100 breast faster than the winning Olympic time for men. And the 400 Free was what, 0.3 off the winning time by the same guy? And we're still a year out of the Olympics.

I think when we look back on it, we're going to realize that yes, the suits in 2009 had a HUGE impact on the times swimmers were able to accomplish. And the suits in both 2008 and 2009 made swimmers faster than they should have been, but not my too much. And it certainly helped those not at the very top more. If anyone wants to bet that Phelps would have lost any of his golds had all of the swimmers been swimming in Textile suits, then that person is 100% crazy. The best in 2008 were the best in the sport. In 2009, that cannot be said with 100% accuracy.

I do think that before 2016, men will be allowed to wear 100% permeable body suits again (like the FS-Pro of 2007). I think we will realize that those suits, provided they can't aid in floatation, don't help much. And given the data, I think FINA will bow to the suit companies, realizing that to the swimmers, there is no difference, merely a personal preference to the suits. On taper, it's all about "look fast, feel fast, swim fast."
I pretty much agree with what you said about the difference between 2008 and 2009, though I do think that the Germans got screwed by having to wear the Arena suit when everyone else got LZRs in 2008 which really is a different matter.

Suit rules will change. There is too much money in it. The first big change will be next year when men are allowed to wear short johns. The changes will be incremental and controlled. When a suit change is announced, there will be a shortage of availability of that suit, prices will be sky high, and little guys (who can help bring the cost down) will get left out.
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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by Chris Knight » Tue Jul 26, 2011 1:31 pm

Men's MR as it stands:

100M
(1) France 52.76 (Lacourt or Stravius)
(2) Japan 52.98 (Irie)
(3) USA 53.01 (Thoman)
(4) AUS 53.50 (Kean)

200M
(1) Japan 1:52.25 (Kitajima 59.77 SF -0.5)
(2) USA 1:52.70 (Gangloff 1:00.19 SF -0.5)
(3) AUS 1:53.04 (Rickard 1:00.04 SF -0.5)
(4) France 1:53.24 (Dubosq 1:00.38 SF -0.5)

France has nobody entered in the 1 fly, so I guess it'll be Bousquet? He's been 51.5, which would make it:

300M
(1) USA 2:42.85 (Phelps 50.65 seed -0.5)
(2) Japan 2:43.59 (Fuji 51.84 seed -0.5)
(3) AUS 2:44.04 (Huegill 51.69 seed -0.5, I cannot believe he's back to that fast already)
(4) France 2:44.24 (Bousquet 51.50 PR -0.5...generous since this time is probably several years old)

Final
(1) USA 3:30.25 (Adrian 47.40 split)
(2) AUS 3:31.03 (Magnussen 47.49 Leadoff -0.5)
(3) France 3:31.46 (Gilot 47.22 split)
(4) Japan 3:32.42 (Hihara 48.83 split)

So we are still the favorite, the wild cards being Dubosq, Bousquet, and Huegill.
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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by sagehen1 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 10:16 pm

49 today in prelims - ouch. Same thing happened with Neil Walker in 07. Not having a selection meet in 2011 is killer.

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Re: Jason Lezak?

Post by silentp » Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:29 pm

HAHAHAHAHA

The French didn't make the finals. They put in a guy who split 54.0 in the fly. Idiots (them, not you for your predictions).
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