2017 NCAAs

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

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madrileno
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2017 NCAAs

Post by madrileno » Mon Feb 20, 2017 4:26 pm

Can someone run selection predictions? I just heard it may only go to line 11 for the men's individuals.

schnitz
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by schnitz » Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:38 am

Agree.

wiswimdad
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by wiswimdad » Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:02 am

Was trying to find the meet selection procedure. I thought I saw it in the past. Anyone got a link?

11 would be short, wouldn't it? I thought the redefining of the A-cuts would make the depth of selection more stable.

madrileno
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by madrileno » Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:56 am


purpleandwhite
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by purpleandwhite » Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:22 am

wiswimdad wrote:Was trying to find the meet selection procedure. I thought I saw it in the past. Anyone got a link?

11 would be short, wouldn't it? I thought the redefining of the A-cuts would make the depth of selection more stable.
I have the manual but the file is too big to attach here.
Basically you:
1) Enter all A times
2)Fill individual to make them even (this year there are 10 A cuts in the 1650 so the line goes to at least 10)
3)Enter the 16 qualifying relays.
4) Add the 24 divers.

Then you keep adding swimmers until you reach the maximum number of competitors (260 men and 267 women).
Someone with the right set of tools could figure out whether there are too many relay only swimmers so that we get only one more line. It's theoretically possible I suppose.

wiswimdad
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by wiswimdad » Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:27 am

There is only one A-cut time (15:04.60) in the 1650 unless the A-cut time is wrong in the list from NCAA.

Don't you need to know the lineups from all the top-16 relays before you can establish individual cut lines? There is a maximum number of individual swimmer limit, correct?

purpleandwhite
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by purpleandwhite » Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:31 am

Sorry I was looking at the college swimming times and they are wrong in terms of A cuts.
Yes, you cannot know unless you figure out how many relay only swimmers are in place.
I find it hard to believe they won't go down to at least 15 but that is based on the new approach to A cuts (which still works) and not any insight into relays.

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N Dynamite
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by N Dynamite » Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:51 am

I was under the impression they did the 16 relays first then did the individuals - not that it matters when the A cuts are so fast. The other thing is that the relay names are based on who they used to come up with the time. As far as entries go a person can be entered in 8 (5 relays/3 individuals) and coaches can name their relay swimmers at the meet. The only rule as far as that goes is that a swimmer has to do at least one event they got invited in. Since a relay swimmer could be on all five relay entries this would also help the line go further. There's one other caveat - if there is a difference of 2 or more lines between the relays and individuals (with individuals being less) they rerun the process with only 15 relays. If it happens again they rerun the process with only 14 relays. So unless there's only going to be 12 relays per event the line for individuals will definitely be higher than 11
You have Pedro's protection. Vote for Pedro.

purpleandwhite
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by purpleandwhite » Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:39 pm

Let's see if this works:

SELECTION OF PARTICIPANTS
Step 1: All individual swimmers who have achieved “A” time standards will be entered in the meet.
Step 2: The top 16 qualifying relay teams in each relay event and 24 spots for divers will be reserved.
Step 3: Entries will be added to each individual swimming event, filling across rows until each event has an equal number of
qualifiers. One entry will then be added to each individual swimming event in event order to keep the events at the
same number. This process will be repeated as long as each individual event in the entire order of events can receive
an additional entry and the total number of individual event qualifiers remains below the individual cap and the total
number of overall competitors remains below the overall cap.
Step 4: If at some point the addition of one competitor per event to the entire order of individual events puts the field
over the individual event qualifier cap or the total number of competitors cap, the competitor whose percentage
is closest to the NCAA Division III Championships meet record will be taken first until 140 men and 146 women
individual event qualifiers are selected or the maximum participant number is reached.
Step 5: After the selection process is run, if there is a disparity of more than one between individual and relay complete rows,
then one relay row is eliminated and the remaining cap space is filled by individual events until the disparity is no more
than one. No more than 16 relays will be selected.
Step 6: In the rare instance of a tie for the last entry to the championships, both individuals will be allowed to participate in the
championships.
Step 7: Relay-only swimmers will be added to only those individual events for which they have met the “B” time standard.
Step 8: After the selection process is completed and the qualifiers are selected into the championships, the optional entries will
be added for the individual qualifiers.
Step 9: After divers have been selected, no team may have more than 18 competitors.
BONA FIDE

wiswimdad
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by wiswimdad » Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:59 pm

Thanks!

Pretty complicated.

purpleandwhite
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by purpleandwhite » Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:08 pm

N Dynamite wrote:I was under the impression they did the 16 relays first then did the individuals - not that it matters when the A cuts are so fast. The other thing is that the relay names are based on who they used to come up with the time. As far as entries go a person can be entered in 8 (5 relays/3 individuals) and coaches can name their relay swimmers at the meet. The only rule as far as that goes is that a swimmer has to do at least one event they got invited in. Since a relay swimmer could be on all five relay entries this would also help the line go further. There's one other caveat - if there is a difference of 2 or more lines between the relays and individuals (with individuals being less) they rerun the process with only 15 relays. If it happens again they rerun the process with only 14 relays. So unless there's only going to be 12 relays per event the line for individuals will definitely be higher than 11
Agreed....I think no lower than 13 in fact and haven't seen it that low in recent years.

wiswimdad
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by wiswimdad » Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:20 pm

Getting down to 13 would require only 14 relays be taken, right? Am I reading Step 5 correctly? If so, it seems that 14 would be the lowest it would go practically because that would be inviting only 15 relays. Without knowing relay lineups I don't know how you would even start to predict this.

For our team, we have 4 relays in the top 16s. 7 different swimmers in the 4 relays, 2 would be relay only, 2 with top-9 individual times, 1 with a top-15 individual time.

purpleandwhite
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by purpleandwhite » Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:48 pm

wiswimdad wrote:Getting down to 13 would require only 14 relays be taken, right? Am I reading Step 5 correctly? If so, it seems that 14 would be the lowest it would go practically because that would be inviting only 15 relays. Without knowing relay lineups I don't know how you would even start to predict this.

For our team, we have 4 relays in the top 16s. 7 different swimmers in the 4 relays, 2 would be relay only, 2 with top-9 individual times, 1 with a top-15 individual time.
No way...one would have to check every conference results and let's face it we'll know tomorrow in any case.
Frankly I seriously doubt that those who posted a cutoff line at 11 did any analysis, so would not be too concerned.
BTW, I've seen women's line as high as 20 and the men's as high as 18 but that was before the change in relay qualifying criteria.
Post that change 15 to 16 is more like it for the men.

lc503
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by lc503 » Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:31 pm

With the entry lists being posted on USA Swimming, you can go through and see which relays were aggregates, when compared to the times the USA Swimming Event Rank Lists. So, it isn't that hard, but it does take time and consideration. Given the fact that there were 8 800 Free Relays aggregated on the men's side and 5 400 Medley Relays aggregated for the Men. Plus, you have to see what changed to get that aggregate time. For example, NYU's aggregate relays is actually not their 4 fastest men. It is there number 1, 2, 3, and 6. They must not have entered their 4 and 5 on their ncaa roster.

watercows
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Re: 2017 NCAAs

Post by watercows » Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:28 pm

purpleandwhite wrote:
wiswimdad wrote:Getting down to 13 would require only 14 relays be taken, right? Am I reading Step 5 correctly? If so, it seems that 14 would be the lowest it would go practically because that would be inviting only 15 relays. Without knowing relay lineups I don't know how you would even start to predict this.

For our team, we have 4 relays in the top 16s. 7 different swimmers in the 4 relays, 2 would be relay only, 2 with top-9 individual times, 1 with a top-15 individual time.
No way...one would have to check every conference results and let's face it we'll know tomorrow in any case.
Frankly I seriously doubt that those who posted a cutoff line at 11 did any analysis, so would not be too concerned.
BTW, I've seen women's line as high as 20 and the men's as high as 18 but that was before the change in relay qualifying criteria.
Post that change 15 to 16 is more like it for the men.
P&W (or anyone else): Do you happen to recall when "Step 5" entered the selection criteria? Is it new? I seem to recall in the (recent?) past that, after all A-cuts were entered (and now, the very few A-cut entries), the NCAA then added 16 relays--period. After that, the line fell across the individual events until hitting the cap. But I just don't remember adjustments to the relay line with the goal of keeping it w/in one line of the individual events.

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