Nats 2014

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

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Negrodamus
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Nats 2014

Post by Negrodamus » Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:54 pm

I think a lot will be answered about if Denison can close the gap on the very first day (which is tomorrow! How is there not more conversation about this?!) I look for Weik to drop a lot of time and gain a lot of points. Diving will be big for Denison of course, but it looks like it's going to take quite a few huge swims to catch Kenyon or perhaps a rare Kenyon slip-up.

On the women's side, Emory looks to 5-peat and it certainly is their meet to lose.

I'm certainly excited to see a bunch of fast times and perhaps quite a few records falling.
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CurtisReference
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by CurtisReference » Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:45 pm

I agree that Weik probably has the chance to score the most points over his seed position than anybody in recent memory. He needs to do well for Denison to win, but I don't think he needs to win all his events.

How many chances do Kenyon and Denison have to score?

Denison has 8 from diving, then I'm guessing 39 (13x3) from swimming, plus 10 for relays, because they count double.

Kenyon has 54 (18x3) plus 10 from the relay.

Kenyon enters the meet with a 64 to 57 lead in point scoring chances. Those 7 swims are not at all insurmountable, especially considering that to score in diving you only have to finish in the top 2/3rds of the meet. In most of the swimming events, you need to be in the top half at least.

On day 1, the scoring chances look like this:

500 - Kenyon 4 guys seated in scoring position, Denison 4 guys out of scoring position. Hard to see Denison coming out ahead in this, even if Weik wins.

200 IM - K has 4 swims, 1 seated to score, D has 6 swims, 2 seated to score and several others on the edge of scoring. If D gets 4 or 5 guys to score here, they will be looking good. However, if Beckwith and Newell score, that would indicate that K is killing their taper. D should out score K, but I'm guessing by less than K won the mile.

50 - D has 4, 2 seeded to score, K has 5, 1 seeded to score and 3 more close. It will be weird to not see K dominate the sprints this year, just like it will be odd for D to not dominate the Backstrokes. Gates and Duronio are studs, and it is hard to win NCAAs if your studs don't score in 3 events. That rule doesn't really apply to D's Rosenberg, stroke specialist studs can be forgiven not making it back in the 50.

3 meter - D 4 divers. I'll guess 3 score, though 4 is realistic.

End of Day 1 K will have used 13 swims, and scored in my guess is 8 of them. D will have used 18 swims, and scored in 9 places. Add in the relay, and I think D will have the lead, but only 37 more chances to score vs. K's 51.

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Negrodamus
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by Negrodamus » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:35 am

Great analysis CR. Now I'm even more excited for things to get underway tomorrow.

It certainly is a big gap that Denison has to make up for but it's certainly not insurmountable. A relay jumping for either team would certainly seal it for the other team. Does Kenyon play it super safe on relays, especially in the sprints where pushing your start is most useful/important? I certainly would if I was them.

Interesting to see that Denison could potentially be in the lead after day 1. Gonna be a great two-way race for first on the men's side. The competition for 3-6 will also be interesting with a lot of teams close enough to each other than one big race could swing a team a spot or two.
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Scooter87
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by Scooter87 » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:32 am

Men 500 free

A fair amount of slower prelim swims. Weik posted a good prelim time as well as Arthur Conover from Kenyon, dropping 2.54.

Kenyon 3 up
Denison 1up/1 down

Hopkins 1 up/1 down

pops
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by pops » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:42 am

So KU lost a guy but the 3 they had moved up

Weik swam well so it's a officially a battle.

1st event is probably a draw based on where they came in. KU got plus from Conover but minus from other frosh.

Weik looks like he will score more than seeded, which Denison needs.

Scooter87
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by Scooter87 » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:27 am

Men 200 IM

Kenyon - 1 down
Denison 4 up/1 down

CurtisReference
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by CurtisReference » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:44 am

That is a very big result for Denison. Note that (small sample size warning, of course) Denison swimmers have improved on 8 of their 9 seed times so far, and Kenyon has improved in 5 out of 7. Both these teams look to be hitting their tapers well, so that means position on the psych sheet means even less than usual.

pops
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by pops » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:00 pm

50 free

each 1 up 1 down

both teams swimming well so far.

CurtisReference
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by CurtisReference » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:29 pm

Wow! Denison is in the consols in the 200 MR. That is their weakest relay, but I would have thought they would be in the big heat.

silentp
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by silentp » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:32 pm

Denison puts their 2mr into consols! While relay importance is often overstated, that is still a significant difference in a meet this close.

We know Kenyon has more in finals, but if they stay middle of the pack and Denison moves up in consols, the impact would be less.

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a dude
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by a dude » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:52 pm

Very interesting 200 medley with Denison sliding from 4th seed to at best 9th place now. They gained huge ground in the 200 IM but the relay sets that back again, 12 or 14 points gone from their seeded position (what do 9th placed relays score again?). JHU also with a very significant DQ for the team race, those are hard points to make up.

Those points from the 200 IM overpower the relay setback, but Joey Duronio helped Kenyon gain points in the 50 freestyle compared against their seed that cancels out the Denison gain.

I'd look for a lineup change for the Lords in the 200 medley, with maybe the last two legs changing enough to put them in a title hunt with a little faster breaststroke leg. Top three teams seemed to have their best lineups in the water already.

For the team race on the guys side, I'd say it's about equal still! This is going to be close.

Kenyon Ladies looked really good in the 50 freestyle. Emory women had a great 500. Denison women looked to be staying on course, JHU about the same.

CurtisReference
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by CurtisReference » Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:45 pm

Since relays count double, Kenyon has 6 up and 2 down, while Denison has 6 up and 5 down tonight, not counting diving. Leaving diving aside for the moment, that has Denison up by 3 consol scores.

Tomorrow the big event will be the 400 IM, featuring more than a third of Kenyon's national team, and almost half of Denison's swimmers. Kenyon has 5 guys scoring on the psyche sheet plus 2 more. Denison has 2 scoring, but Weik is one of the 3 swimmers they have seeded outside of points. That should wipe out any advantage Denison takes in from the swimming tomorrow.

The fly is a chance for suprise points to be picked up be either side. Both have 1 guy set to score, and then 2 (D) or 3 (K) lurkers. Denison's lurkers are both scoring in the 50, so I like their chances to move up, though Wuorinen made the consols dispite adding a fraction of a second to his seed time. Manz and McGee's splits for Kenyon's moning 200 MR were solid, but they don't tell me that they will be moving up for sure. Of course, they were probably instructed to have very safe starts, so it probably isn't a good idea to read to much into that.

The 200 Free will be another slug fest between the two sides, with both Kenyon and Denison having 3 guys as pre-meet all americans, plus one more swim from Kenyon. Kenyon's Duronio came from 25th place to score in the 50, Kenyon would love for him to move up to the big final from his 15th seed. Denison's 3 swimmers are all in the big heat tonight for the 200 IM, kind of an unusual double.

Both teams are in the top 3 of both Thursday relays, so I'm not sure how much analysis there is there, but as the 200 MR showed this morning, there is a lot of depth at the meet, and a morning lineup can be dangerous.

With Denison coming in with a 3 consol swim lead, I don't see Kenyon doing much more than balancing that out with their swims on Thursday. Kenyon will probably have to do better than that, because they have to make some progress against the diving points Denison will put up tonight. Of course 3 consol swims could be worth anywhere from 3 to 27 points. Those final positions matter a great deal, because the meet is still looking very close.

pops
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by pops » Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:25 pm

Denison divers went 3 up 1 down, including top 2 spots in prelims.

This makes up for their medley relay setback this morning.

With Weik and the divers strong, I think Denison has a real slight edge so far, but definitely too close to call.

pops
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by pops » Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:41 am

Kenyon came into the meet 106 points ahead of Denison on the psych sheet, without diving.

Denison made up 23 swim points yesterday, and scored 54 diving points, cutting the gap to 29.

3 Ups in diving is about 45 points, so if I use that as a placeholder, then Denison is 16 up.

Keep in mind that Kenyon gained 18 points on the psych sheet.

Today (Day 2) is the biggest day for both teams on the sheet - the question is how much ground can Kenyon make up today?

Scooter87
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Re: Nats 2014

Post by Scooter87 » Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:07 am

Day two individual preview

4 IM
Kenyon seeded 1,3,4,5,11,23 (conover - big swim yesterday), 29 = 7 in event
Denison seeded 7,12,17 (Weik), 20, 30 = 5 in event

Weik will undoubtedly be in the top 8, but will the florida transfer win the event for KC?

100 Fly
Kenyon seeded 4,24,28,34 = 4 in event
Denison seeded 6,19,39 = 3 in event

200 free
Kenyon seeded 2,9,15,33 = 4 in event
Denison seeded 1,6,8 = 3 in event

Maciel and Caldwell separated by .04 heading into prelims. Hopkins could prove a spoiler in this event for both teams.

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