2011 Cut Line

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

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mxskier
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2011 Cut Line

Post by mxskier » Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:42 pm

I figured someone could post the current "cut-line" times here (I don't know how to exactly get those times, or figure out who is swimming what) but since we're already through 2 weeks of conference championships, I figured it was time to start keeping track.

So to the guys who are keeping track, wanna share the info?

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facenorth
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by facenorth » Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:16 am

Based on the number of conference meets this weekend (and the majority of them) I'd be surprised if anyone has a list out until first of next week. That being said I do think it's possible to see a cut line out there that's sitting pretty good right now. I wouldn't be surprised if some coaches looked at times in particular events as target times to try and jump in front of.

screeeeeeeeech
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by screeeeeeeeech » Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:37 am

Well put, Face. The picture is pretty muddled right now, but should become a lot clearer after this weekend. I'm pretty sure this has been discussed, but were midseason taper times faster/slower/about the same as compared to last year?
Also, what meets are this weekend? I know UAAs start Wednesday in Rochester, but I'm in the dark about everything else.
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facenorth
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by facenorth » Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:28 pm

The "conference meet madness" tab from the homepage is really helpful. Below is the list of conference meets this weekend per the conference madness page. Also below is the link to that conference meet madness page I'm referring to.

BGMC, SCAC, UAA, AMCC, CCIW, Liberal Arts, MIAA, MIAC, OAC, PAC, WIAC, CAC, Centennial, Metropolitan, MWC, NESCAC Women, NEWMAC Women, NEAC

http://d3swimming.com/?page_id=515

openwater
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by openwater » Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:10 pm

So here are some numbers to chew on going into the big weekend of conference meets. The current Top Times list on Collegeswimming.com has the following numbers of RELAYS that have, at this point, gotten under the 2010 selection time AND the number of relays this year that are under what would have been the #16 relay time from 2010.

Women (since this will be all but decided after Sunday except for some last chance action):
2FR: 7/7 (7 under last year's selection time/7 under the 16th time from last year)
4FR: 4/5
8FR: 4/6
2MR: 6/6
4MR: 3/7
Looks to me like the relay field is still pretty open.

Men (remembering that there are several powerhouse meets going on next week for the guys):
2FR: 7/8
4FR: 5/5
8FR: 3/4
2MR: 4/6
4MR: 3/6

When I decided to pull these together I was expecting higher numbers - kind of surprised at the totals.
Are the #16 times this year really going to be slower than last year? Or will there be a run on last chance meets?
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nescac
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by nescac » Thu Feb 17, 2011 8:13 am

Another way to look at it is that teams rarely get a good time in a relay until their conference meet and few of the teams who would be expected to qualify in a relay have yet had their conference meet. I follow women's swimming more closely than men's swimming. On the women's list, you can see, for example, in the 400 free relay that Kenyon and Denison of course are under last year's cut time and Emory and Stevens are under it before their conference meet. All the other schools following them have not yet swum their conference meet even though 8 already have a B cut. Again, looking at the women's cut lines, I would also observe that the 50 free and 100 free for women are lightening fast this year. I keep a top 30 list of swimmers based on their likely swims so everyone only gets 3 swims. By my calculation, 18 swimmers are already under last year's B cut in 50 free and 20 are under last year's cut in 100 free. So, for women, it seems to be the year of the sprinter which might suggest quite fast cut times for the 200 free and 400 free relays. As best I can tell, the other events for women are pretty comparable to last year. A lot will depend on whether Emory and Williams taper many swimmers or, instead, let some of their "cusp" swimmers qualify on relays without fully resting them. With WIlliams having a home meet, though, I expect some fabulous times from their swimmers just as Middlebury swam great last year when it was hosting NESCACS. Will Emory, by contrast, be sluggish from traveling to freezing cold Rochester? I guess we'll know soon!

openwater
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by openwater » Thu Feb 17, 2011 8:40 am

nescac wrote:.... By my calculation, 18 swimmers are already under last year's B cut in 50 free and 20 are under last year's cut in 100 free. ...
I think you mean under the selection time from last year - and I agree, the sprinters are moving this year. And as usual really only Kenyon, Denison and Emory are represented by more than one swimmer in the top 20 of each of those events for the women.
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nescac
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by nescac » Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:57 am

Yes, I meant selection time! Sorry.

I disagree though about Emory, Denison and Kenyon only having 1 swimmer in top 20 right now. In the 50 free, for example, Denison has Nuess, Golovkina and Armitage under last year's cut time. And Emory already has Pavlak, Wolber and Lemberg with Rosenkranz and Klinzing under the B cut (but not last year's selection time). In the 100 free, Emory already has Pavlak, Rosenkranz, Wolber and Lemberg under last year's selection time. The 100 back seems to be especially dominated by the powerhouses. Emory already has Nennig, Schneider and Pavlak under last year's selection time. Kenyon has Bank, Haller and Flinn. And Denison has Zeberlein, Armitage, Yu, and Martin. These lists are a little inaccurate because Denison and Kenyon have already had their conference meet. And Emory swam blistering fast at its December mini-taper meet (and may not go under those times this weekend). Further, NESCAC doesn't do a December mini-taper so it usually puts up the biggest season improvements. So, it may ultimately shake out that the top 20 list has contributions from many different teams. But, right now, Emory, Denison and Kenyon are taking a disproportionate share of the likely spots based on last year's qualification times.

LordJeffFree
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by LordJeffFree » Thu Feb 17, 2011 10:06 am

For the men's relays, I would expect as many as 5 schools to place relays under the top 16 times that are mentioned, with Amherst, Williams and Tufts almost guaranteed to do so. With good meets, Middlebury and Conn College will join them in their stronger relays, so I would expect that the times for top 16 will not be slower.

It's definitely possible that there will be fewer teams under last year's selection time, as the schools on the fringe of the top 10 have less motivation to push their starts or to do time trials, as they will safely be in the meet when they get to that range.

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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by Truthinswmng » Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:20 pm

nescac wrote: Will Emory, by contrast, be sluggish from traveling to freezing cold Rochester? I guess we'll know soon!
Almost all Emory women with a Q time neither rested or shaved and the Day 1 results are pretty impressive: 200 FR breaks the UAA record of last year's team that ultimately won NCAA and set the national record; Horvat breaks her own record in the 500 (4:52) and several others under 5:00; Aronoff and Michalak both under previous UAA record in 200 IM and several sprinters under Q time again in the 50, with Pavlak showing why she's got #1 time coming in with a completely unrested 23.6.

nescac
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by nescac » Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:42 pm

Emory women are swimming awesome times but I was surprised to see only 2 b cuts in 200 free relay. Will there be 16 teams with b cuts in that event?

openwater
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by openwater » Thu Feb 17, 2011 10:41 pm

Well here is the current partial list (in order) for the women:
Denison, GAC, Emory, Stevens Pt., EauClaire, Kenyon, LaCrosse, Wheaton(MA)?, Stevens, Grove City, KZoo all under last years selection time plus
Wash.U and St. Thomas are under the 16th fastest from last year.
That is 13.
NESCAC, NEWMAC, NWC and SCIAC (at least) will likely add entries to the list.
There will be at least 16 B-cuts.
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openwater
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by openwater » Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:53 am

Here are all the Top Times with a B-cut or better for 2FR and 4MR for the guys after Thursday 2/17/11. Only 13 and 15 relays under the B-line which seems odd because the women have 23 and 24 (respectively) under their B-cut time.

200 FR 1:
A-cut 21.56
2010 Selection 22.96
2010 #16 23.44
B-cut 23.51

1 Kenyon 20.78
2 MIT 21.86
3 Emory 21.97
4 Stevens Pt 22.12
5 Kzoo 22.21
6 Denison 22.27
7 JHU 22.27
8 TCNJ 22.71
9 W&L 23.29
10 GAC 23.33
11 Depauw 23.36
12 St.Johns 23.46
13 WashU 23.49
14
15
16

400 MR 3:
A-cut 20.54
2010 Selection 23.86
2010 #16 25.79
B-cut 26.83

1 Denison 19.77
2 Kenyon 19.88
3 Emory 19.92
4 Stevens Pt. 22.82
5 Kzoo 22.88
6 JHU 23.20
7 St. Olaf 23.47
8 GAC 24.15
9 MIT 25.42
10 Wheaton (IL) 25.52
11 W&L 25.83
12 Hope 25.91
13 Grove City 25.96
14 Depauw 26.09
15 Stevens 26.69
16
Last edited by openwater on Fri Feb 18, 2011 9:36 am, edited 3 times in total.
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N Dynamite
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by N Dynamite » Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:32 am

openwater wrote:Here are all the Top Times with a B-cut or better for 2FR and 4MR for the guys after Thursday 2/17/11. Only 12 relays under the B-line for each which seems odd because the women have 19 and 20 (respectively) under their B-cut time.

200 FR 1:
A-cut 21.56
2010 Selection 22.96
2010 #16 23.44
B-cut 23.51

1 Kenyon 20.78
2 MIT 21.86
3 Emory 21.97
4 Stevens Pt 22.12
5 Kzoo 22.21
6 Denison 22.27
7 JHU 22.27
8 TCNJ 22.71
9 W&L 23.29
10 GAC 23.33
11 St.Johns 23.46
12 WashU 23.49
13
14
15
16

400 MR 3:
A-cut 20.54
2010 Selection 23.86
2010 #16 25.79
B-cut 26.83

Denison 19.77
Kenyon 19.88
Emory 19.92
Stevens Pt. 22.82
JHU 23.20
St. Olaf 23.47
GAC 24.15
Kzoo 24.31
MIT 25.42
W&L 25.83
Grove City 25.96
Stevens 26.69
You missed two 400 MRs - Wheaton 25.52 and Hope 25.91
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openwater
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Re: 2011 Cut Line

Post by openwater » Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:36 am

N Dynamite wrote:
openwater wrote:Here are all the Top Times with a B-cut or better for 2FR and 4MR for the guys after Thursday 2/17/11. Only 12 relays under the B-line for each which seems odd because the women have 19 and 20 (respectively) under their B-cut time.
You missed two 400 MRs - Wheaton 25.52 and Hope 25.91
Equally offensive - I didn't get KZoos time from last night.
I have edited the post above.
Once a competitive swimmer, you can become anything.

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