Championship Qualification Procedures

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

Moderators: Diesel471, ThePlowman, Nasty Natti

Swmr46
Posts: 220
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 12:18 pm

Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by Swmr46 » Thu Feb 03, 2011 5:32 pm

A lot has changed since last year. I figure I would post the link to the Championship Handbook. That way everyone can freshen up on the qualification procedures.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks ... imming.pdf

Number of Participants. The number of participants in the 2011 championships
cannot exceed the following limits: Men—257; and Women—264.

Step 1: All individual swimmers and all relays that have achieved “A” time standards will
be entered in the meet.

Step 2: The top16 qualifying relay teams in each relay event and 22 divers will be
selected.

Step 3: Entries will be added to each individual swimming event, filling across rows
until each event has an equal number of qualifiers. Individual spaces will be
filled by comparing student-athlete’s individual event times to the Division III
championships record by percentage.

Step 4: The competitor whose percentage is closest to the record will be taken first
until 140 men and 146 women individual event qualifiers are selected or the
maximum participant number is reached.

Step 5: Relay-only swimmers will be added to only those individual events for which
they have met the “B” time standard.

Step 6: At this point, if the maximum participant cap has not been reached, studentathletes
will be selected in the following order:
1 diver
2 individual event swimmers
1 diver
2 individual event swimmers
1 diver (maximum cap for divers is 25)
Any remaining participant cap space will be filled by individual event
swimmers.
In the rare instances of a tie for the last entry to the championships, both
individuals will be allowed to participate in the championships.

Step 7: After the selection process is completed and the qualifiers are selected into the
championships, the optional entries will be added for the individual qualifiers.

Step 8: No team may have more than 18 competitors.

weedwacker2000
Posts: 232
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:56 pm

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by weedwacker2000 » Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:04 pm

With the increased number of swimmers invited to the meet, and the faster "B" cuts this year, would it be possible to run out of "B" cut qualifiers in a particular individual event (having to fill across all the rows) before the cap is reached?

Also - can anyone give an intelligent guess as to what number row would be the cut off for qualifiers in the individual events?

Do my questions make any sense?

User avatar
N Dynamite
Posts: 841
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:44 pm
Location: Idaho

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by N Dynamite » Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:39 pm

They won't run out of B cuts in any individual event. The only impact the faster B cut will have is the number of relay only swimmers who get individual swims. It's difficult to tell how the increased relay numbers and overall cap will impact each other. My guess is that the line will be almost as deep - maybe 1-2 less rows. My rationale for that is - the better teams (Kenyon, Denison, Emory, Williams, etc) can put people on the relays who won't have selectable B cuts and still be ranked top 16 to get those individuals to the meet. The additional extra schools will also obviously increase the total number of relay only swimmers. I think that total number will exceed the cap increase.
You have Pedro's protection. Vote for Pedro.

babwik
Posts: 293
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:53 am

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by babwik » Fri Feb 04, 2011 2:05 pm

I was aware of this but somehow had no idea about step 6. Because that's what everyone has been clamoring for, more divers...........

mxskier
Posts: 99
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:51 am

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by mxskier » Fri Feb 04, 2011 2:57 pm

babwik wrote:I was aware of this but somehow had no idea about step 6. Because that's what everyone has been clamoring for, more divers...........
Adding swimmers over divers at that point makes little difference. Swimmers who are added 23rd in the 50 freestyle are not likely to score points. However, divers can move around a lot, and those that have the ability to dive at the national level could potentially go from that 23rd or 24th spot to the top 16, however unlikely.

Also, why are there more women than men? Just curious? Why not equal? Are there more girls teams?

babwik
Posts: 293
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:53 am

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by babwik » Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:49 pm

There are quite a few more women's teams than men's. I think the percentage of men's qualifiers has them better represented than women.

nescac
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:02 am
Team Affiliation: nescac

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by nescac » Fri Feb 04, 2011 8:54 pm

I don't understand why the number of rows for individual qualifiers would change because the cap is unchanged. Relay only swimmers get added after individual qualifiers. Am I missing something? I mean the individual cap is unchanged although the overall cap has increased to accommodate extra relay swimmers.

User avatar
N Dynamite
Posts: 841
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:44 pm
Location: Idaho

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by N Dynamite » Fri Feb 04, 2011 11:46 pm

nescac wrote:I don't understand why the number of rows for individual qualifiers would change because the cap is unchanged. Relay only swimmers get added after individual qualifiers. Am I missing something? I mean the individual cap is unchanged although the overall cap has increased to accommodate extra relay swimmers.
Step 1 is A cuts. Step 2 is all relays (to line 16). There isn't a relay subcap anymore. The third step is adding individual B cuts until either the individual subcap or overall cap is reached, whichever comes first. It's possible the overall cap will be reached before the individual subcap is. Looking back, inviting 12 relays was a good year - sometimes only 8-9 relays got in per event. Going to 16 is going to add a lot of relay only swimmers. Like I said before, I'm only guessing, but I think the extra relay only swimmers is going to exceed the amount the cap was increased. It used to be that the relays couldn't "steal" from the individuals, but if there was an extra relay only spot (1 spot but 2 needed for the next relay) an extra individual was brought in. Now, since the relays get pulled in first (not counting A cuts) if there's a lot of relay only swimmers they can "steal" spots from the individuals. This aludes to it:
Swmr46 wrote:Step 4: The competitor whose percentage is closest to the record will be taken first
until 140 men and 146 women individual event qualifiers are selected or the
maximum participant number is reached.
Assuming you're correct about the individual subcap (I can't remember that number but I think you are), the relay only and diving sub caps were 63 men and 64 women and 22 divers making the overall caps 225 and 232. That means the caps only increased by 32 bodies. I don't see how you can add 4-8 relays to each event by only adding 32 relay only swimmers. In fact, looking at that number, I was probably being too generous saying line 18 for individuals - we might only hit line 16 or 17.
Last edited by N Dynamite on Sat Feb 05, 2011 7:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
You have Pedro's protection. Vote for Pedro.

nescac
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:02 am
Team Affiliation: nescac

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by nescac » Sat Feb 05, 2011 7:09 am

I understand your math now. I guess it will depend on how many swimmers are on multiple relays. This rule is really hard on good swimmers on weak teams who don't have relay opportunities. Because there are 3 freestyle relays, it also may create a freestyle heavy nationals. If this change was unintended, I think they should relax the rules to hit the individual cap which I checked and was unchanged. I hadn't noticed that the overall cap preceded the first step but you are right about that.

I was looking at the rules again. Rule six says: "At this point, if the maximum participant cap has not been reached, studentathletes
will be selected in the following order:"

One way to interpret this rule is to say it means that the maximum cap is only applied AFTER step five. Steps one through four use the mandatory term "will" or "shall." It is only at step six that the rules are written in a conditional tone. Was anyone on the committee that recommended this change? Did they really contemplate that fewer swimmers would qualify as individuals when they left the individual cap the same? I understand that a literal interpretation of the rules makes it possible that we only go to line 16 or so this year but I wonder if this is an unintended effect that might be remedied? I can't do the math but I could imagine it being even worse because the teams with 13-16 relays may be especially "weak" and have no swimmers who have already qualified with an A time or on another relay. The top teams are likely to have already qualified all their relays before we get to line 15 or 16 for relays.

mxskier
Posts: 99
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:51 am

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by mxskier » Sat Feb 05, 2011 8:21 am

N Dynamite wrote: Assuming you're correct about the individual subcap (I can't remember that number but I think you are), the relay only and diving sub caps were 63 men and 64 women and 22 divers making the overall caps 225 and 232. That means the caps only increased by 32 bodies. I don't see how you can add 4-8 relays to each event by only adding 32 relay only swimmers. In fact, looking at that number, I was probably being too generous saying line 18 for individuals - we might only hit line 16 or 17.
While mathematically what you are talking about is problematic, you're forgetting that teams often only really have 2 or so relays. A teams 200 FR is often the same as its 400 FR. Even more so for the medleys. So it could be possible to fill those last, lets say 5 relay spots, for just the medleys, by adding only 20 people. And again, odds are, at least a few of those swimmers (most likely the butterfly and freestyle leg) were also on free relays...

Teams don't just have 5 different relays. They move the same few swimmers around, especially when trying to qualify for those final few spots.

Another point is that you're also forgetting that a good number of those swimmers qualifying on those 16 relays would have been in that top 22 for the individual event as it is. So I could imagine, for the 50 for example, that maybe 8 - 12 of the 22 spots are already taken from the relays.

I think it's gonna be all fine. The national committee knows what they're doing.

nescac
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:02 am
Team Affiliation: nescac

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by nescac » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:25 am

I hope you're right! I looked at top times list on usaswimming's data base (which is more accurate than collegeswimming.com) and it is amazing how a few teams do have huge numbers of swimmers on the list. Most of those swimmers will have already qualified based on relays before the individual results are processed. So it may be that the overall cap is only modestly affected by adding in a few individual swimmers who hadn't already made it on relays. I also assume that ncaa ran a "what if" study before coming up with these numbers based on prior year results. Who knows ... maybe they'll actually get to step six because the cap hasn't been exceeded and additional individuals qualify.

Another topic that hasn't been mentioned is the 18 qualifier cap per team. I wonder if that will come more into play this year with the larger overall swimmer cap for the meet. On the women's side, Emory is unbelievable with respect to the large number of (different) swimmers populating the top times chart. It will be interesting to see which 18 swimmers it picks and who has to stay home despite the ability to technically qualify. I didn't look at the men's side but I wonder if Kenyon has the same problem.

nescac
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:02 am
Team Affiliation: nescac

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by nescac » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:25 am

I hope you're right! I looked at top times list on usaswimming's data base (which is more accurate than collegeswimming.com) and it is amazing how a few teams do have huge numbers of swimmers on the list. Most of those swimmers will have already qualified based on relays before the individual results are processed. So it may be that the overall cap is only modestly affected by adding in a few individual swimmers who hadn't already made it on relays. I also assume that ncaa ran a "what if" study before coming up with these numbers based on prior year results. Who knows ... maybe they'll actually get to step six because the cap hasn't been exceeded and additional individuals qualify.

Another topic that hasn't been mentioned is the 18 qualifier cap per team. I wonder if that will come more into play this year with the larger overall swimmer cap for the meet. On the women's side, Emory is unbelievable with respect to the large number of (different) swimmers populating the top times chart. It will be interesting to see which 18 swimmers it picks and who has to stay home despite the ability to technically qualify. I didn't look at the men's side but I wonder if Kenyon has the same problem.

mxskier
Posts: 99
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:51 am

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by mxskier » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:54 am

I think kenyon always (or almost always) fills their team. Which is also why they don't have any divers, even if they were nationals level, because the 2 events a diver gets would actually lower their point total than the 3 swims a swimmer gets. I would be surprised if any other team in the ncaa gets to that 18 number besides the kenyon men.

As for the women, Emory should hit it, and so maybe too will Kenyon. Williams could do it also (I think last year they had 15, correct me if i'm mistaken). It'll be fun to see. Conference meets are starting soon, so we'll get an idea where it's going to be, but since the NESCAC doesn't swim until the end of the month, no one is safe in making nats.

User avatar
N Dynamite
Posts: 841
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:44 pm
Location: Idaho

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by N Dynamite » Sat Feb 05, 2011 5:47 pm

mxskier wrote:While mathematically what you are talking about is problematic, you're forgetting that teams often only really have 2 or so relays. A teams 200 FR is often the same as its 400 FR. Even more so for the medleys. So it could be possible to fill those last, lets say 5 relay spots, for just the medleys, by adding only 20 people. And again, odds are, at least a few of those swimmers (most likely the butterfly and freestyle leg) were also on free relays...
Good point - you're right I hadn't really thought in those terms. I was looking at the number of relay only swimmers it took to get to where the line had been drawn in the past and not considered that the next line probably would include entire relays that were already in (200 in, 400 next line, etc). 16 is definitely to few for individuals. On the other hand, while some relays will alredy be in, you'll also start to capture new schools where it's possible one or no swimmers are already in the meet. For that reason I'm still thinking it'll be around line 18 for individuals. I'm sure the committee considered all this, but I also think some coaches (especially the best teams like Kenyon, Denison, Williams, Emory, et. al.) will use the new rule to get more of their swimmers into the meet without completely resting them. New rules, new dynamic.
You have Pedro's protection. Vote for Pedro.

mxskier
Posts: 99
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2008 9:51 am

Re: Championship Qualification Procedures

Post by mxskier » Sat Feb 05, 2011 6:52 pm

N Dynamite wrote:On the other hand, while some relays will alredy be in, you'll also start to capture new schools where it's possible one or no swimmers are already in the meet.
I don't think this really could ever, ever, happen. No school has only 4 guys who flat start are like 20.9 and can only swim that event for a B-cut. Cause relay, that could be amazing, in the realm of 1:22.5 or so which will probably go, but the odds are SO remote. Most teams rely on a single HUGE swimmer and another big supporter. Last year, my team sent the 10th 4FR: it took a B-cut to lead off, 2 mid-46, and only way they got in was a 44.7 anchor. You're not going to see a situation where the team has 4 guys who, either flat start, or relay, are all say 45.7.

Again, mathematically, it is possible, but SO unlikely it's not worth worrying about. What this will let schools do, however, is bring in relays where there is that 1 big gun, but no huge supporter, to help pull in the 3 other guys.

Post Reply