Relays

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

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mom
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Relays

Post by mom » Fri Dec 10, 2010 8:26 am

I was wondering if people think the relay times will overall be faster this year to qualify because of the extra relay spots. More teams might emphasize relays as a way to get to nationals thereby causing even more competition for those spots? People have been focusing on the impact of faster B cuts but not the impact of more eligible relays.

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DonCheadle
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Re: Relays

Post by DonCheadle » Fri Dec 10, 2010 11:13 am

I am not sure how you would emphasize one without the other: swim fast on relays, don't worry about individuals. Perhaps I am not understanding? I think there might be more time trial relays in the past, so perhaps you are correct. If you go under 1:24 (free) or 1:34 (medley) in a regular setting, I suppose it is now worth doing the time trial...
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screeeeeeeeech
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Re: Relays

Post by screeeeeeeeech » Fri Dec 10, 2010 12:46 pm

Hey mom!

I don't think it will make much difference. Teams have been trying to get kids in on relays for forever now. The fact that more relays are taken in shouldn't have a huge impact on anything, because coaches have always tried to make their NCAA teams as big as possible.
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mom
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Re: Relays

Post by mom » Fri Dec 10, 2010 1:22 pm

My thought is that some teams that have not in recent years been sending many swimmers to NCAA's might find a bit more inspiration for relays. That fourth swimmer who needs a good time to get the relay over the mark but who is individually not likely to qualify may receive a bit more pressure from teammates to train and perform (and also get a low end B cut). I assume there are more "relay only" swimmers as you go down the relay list. I don't know an easy way to determine what were last year's 16th times because top 16 on NCAA relay list is not, in fact, top 16 in the country. But, if those times were readily available, I'd predict some upward movement in the 13th to 16th spots from last year. Anyway, that's my prediction.

mxskier
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Re: Relays

Post by mxskier » Fri Dec 10, 2010 2:14 pm

I would predict that the teams around the bubble (16th spot) are going to be faster than in years past, but that the teams from spots 6-12 won't be. I know at our conference meet there were always 2 or 3 teams going for the 200 FR at Sunday night during the time trial to get that slightly better time to move them over the bubble. And often times they would move from 11th to 10th place, or something like that. Rarely did a team ever go from 17th to 10th. So, if those teams don't have as much an incentive to do that extra swim, then they will likely just hold at being in 11th, and risk moving down the list to say 12th without the extra swim. Again, this is from the perspective of a late-conference championship or a last chance meet. How those conferences have early February championships and just wait is beyond me.

sagehen1
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Re: Relays

Post by sagehen1 » Fri Dec 10, 2010 2:27 pm

I tend to agree with you, Mom. Also if you tend to think of the distribution of the relays as sort of a bell curve (which may be specious, but whatever), there are probably more relays distributed around the 16th spot than the 10th or 11th spot. It's probably more likely, then, that one of those relays makes a big push and helps move the cut line. But who knows...I think there's enough chance involved that it's something that we'll just have to wait until the end of February to see.

The 16th place times from last year for men's and women's relays:

200 FR - 1:23.44 - 1:36.55
200 MR - 1:33.15 - 1:47.01
400 FR - 3:04.35 - 3:31.81
400 MR - 3:25.79 - 3:55.43
800 FR - 6:51.21 - 7:44.02

I'm going to guess that there's about .3-.4 drop per 200 this year for relays.

mom
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Re: Relays

Post by mom » Fri Dec 10, 2010 3:14 pm

Sagehen1, I think your 16th spot list is not quite accurate because I don't think all teams after the 12th spot were picked for NCAA nationals on the basis of rank order. Just eyeballing the times, I would think that numerous men's and women's relays could beat your listed 16th seed time for 800 free relay. For the women, that would be four swimmers averaging a 1:56 -- 1.5 seconds off a B cut. And, for the men, that would be four swimmers averaging a 1:43 -- one second off a B cut. (And that's not even taking into consideration the relay start.) Would be interesting to see the cut offs from the accurate top 16 list from last year to test my hypothesis. - mom

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facenorth
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Re: Relays

Post by facenorth » Fri Dec 10, 2010 5:27 pm

Mom,

Looking at Sagehen1's times, we have the same times written down on our white board here to outline what would've made the meet last year under the new rules. Like many, we expect the qualifying times to be slightly faster than what was 16th last year prior to the invites coming out, but it provides us a bar to shoot for.

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sagehen1
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Re: Relays

Post by sagehen1 » Fri Dec 10, 2010 8:12 pm

I'm almost sure this is correct since it was taken off the best times list and not the ncaa psych sheet.

openwater
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Re: Relays

Post by openwater » Fri Dec 10, 2010 11:05 pm

sagehen1 wrote: The 16th place times from last year for men's and women's relays:

200 FR - 1:23.44 - 1:36.55
200 MR - 1:33.15 - 1:47.01
400 FR - 3:04.35 - 3:31.81
400 MR - 3:25.79 - 3:55.43
800 FR - 6:51.21 - 7:44.02

I'm going to guess that there's about .3-.4 drop per 200 this year for relays.
These times are correct and from the March 1, 2010 Top Times list.

Here are the times from 2009:
200 FR - 1:23.22 - 1:36.23
200 MR - 1:33.51 - 1:46.14
400 FR - 3:04.70 - 3:31.82
400 MR - 3:25.68 - 3:54.03
800 FR - 6:50.91 - 7:40.70
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mom
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Re: Relays

Post by mom » Sat Dec 11, 2010 9:05 am

But the women's actual selection times were: 1:36.40; 1:46.67; 3:30.79; 3:53.49; and 7:41.15. (I got those times from NCAA selection time sheet for 2010-11). So I don't see how the times listed by openwater could be correct. Maybe openwater can clarify. - mom

openwater
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Re: Relays

Post by openwater » Sat Dec 11, 2010 9:18 am

mom wrote:But the women's actual selection times were: 1:36.40; 1:46.67; 3:30.79; 3:53.49; and 7:41.15. (I got those times from NCAA selection time sheet for 2010-11). So I don't see how the times listed by openwater could be correct. Maybe openwater can clarify. - mom
The times I added to Sagehen's 2010 times post were for 2009 - those were fully super-suited times from the previous year. The relative closeness of the invite times from any particular year (when roughly 10-11 relays have generally been taken) to the #16 time off the TopTimes list suggests to me that there will still be a lot of competition for the 'extra' guaranteed slots this year now that 16 will be accepted. I predict that there will be even more teams going to last chance meets trying to make their #17 relay time into the #15 relay.
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mom
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Re: Relays

Post by mom » Sat Dec 11, 2010 4:35 pm

Thanks for the clarification. In comparing the two years, the 16th top time for women's 800 free relay in 2010 seems like quite an outlier. Otherwise, the 2009 and 2010 results seem pretty comparable despite the difference in suits. With the larger relay limit and the faster B times, it will be interesting to see how many relay-only swimmers don't get to swim any individual events.

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