End of 2012-13 season stuff

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weedwacker2000
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End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by weedwacker2000 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:15 pm

Now that all the dual, tri and quad meets for PAC have finished, we can get a better idea of what is in store for the end of season stuff. Or maybe not.

First for the PAC championship meet, I am sure that all of the forum posters will agree that the Grove City women will again dominate, having easily vanquished both Westminster and W&J during their respective dual meets. Westminster comes in second, and I suspect that St. Vincent will give W&J a strong push for third, having beaten them in their dual meet. However I believe that W&J will prevail for third, because of their greater depth.

For the men's championship meet I have no idea whether or not Grove City can keep the 5 year streak alive. Clearly Westminster swam better for their dual meet, and I would therefore give them the edge going into next week's meet. Their freshmen class is vastly better than Grove City's, and their sophomore class is definitely swimming better than they did last year. Yet in doing a points analysis, I find the meet could easily be a toss up.
1. From 2012 we find that if GCC had not dqed the 800 relay, the final points total would be 890 to 705, a 185 point difference.
2. From graduation GCC loses 264 points, WC loses 169.5.
3. From attrition GCC loses none, except if Jim Bossert (who is still on the roster, but hasn't swam in 2013) doesn't swim, then it is 43 points. Westminster loses 57.
4. For relays I suspect that Westminster will win both medleys and one free relay. Grove City should take the other two free relays, but may only get 3rd or 4th in the medleys. That's a point difference of 16 for Westminster.
5. Exhibition swimmers for 2012 currently still on the teams, if they had placed in 2012 would have brought in 31 points for GCC and just 3 points for WC.
6. Here's where it's at:

Point differential from 2012 - 185 for GCC
Grad. and Attrition differential - 37.5 for WC (providing Jim Bossert swims)
Potential relay differential - 16 for WC
Exhibition swimmers differential - 28 for GCC
Freshmen differential - ????????????? for WC

In conclusion for Westminster to win the men's meet they have to make up a 159.5 point difference from last year's championships. Can their freshmen and returning swimmers make up this difference?

OutsideSmoker27
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by OutsideSmoker27 » Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:26 pm

In conclusion for Westminster to win the men's meet they have to make up a 159.5 point difference from last year's championships. Can their freshmen and returning swimmers make up this difference?
I don't know, but I suspect there's a good chance.

The Grove City men's dual meet loss to Westminster doesn't mean a whole lot for the predictions game (nor, as weedwacker pointed out earlier, does their full-season dual meet record), especially since it was a relatively close meet. In 2004, Westminster won the dual meet handily (albeit in November), then lost PACs by a clear margin because they were outnumbered. In 2008, they squashed Grove City in the dual meet 3 weeks before PACs, then lost the championship in a squeaker.

But as for this year.....ummmmmmm? My hope is for Westminster to improve almost enough to make up the 159.5 points (which will give us a close and exciting meet) but not quite enough to make up the full amount (which will still give Grove City the win). Would I place a bet on that scenario? No, even if I were a betting man. Am I biased about it? Oh yes, yes I am.
Families share the bond of blood; teams share the bond of toil, tears, and sweat. Both share the bond of the heart.

OutsideSmoker27
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by OutsideSmoker27 » Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:27 pm

And it probably goes without saying that the women's meet will be uncontroversial as to whom to predict for the winning team. Is 2nd place going to be interesting there?
Families share the bond of blood; teams share the bond of toil, tears, and sweat. Both share the bond of the heart.

Elroy Jetson
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by Elroy Jetson » Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:41 am

This 159.5 point thing just doesn't sound right. I follow the argument, but it seems like Westminster is going to run away with it. Looking at midseason times I feel like it's probably going to be about 100 points in the Titans favor by the end of the meet. In fact, I'm not sure I see many close races other than 3rd place for the women. Here's what I predict in team order:
Men:
1. Westminster
2. Grove City
3. Behrend
4. St. Vincent
5. W&J
6-9 a bunch of teams picking up points because the other teams can't score all of them due to roster limitations

Women:
1. Grove City
2. Westminster
3. St. Vincent
4. W&J
5-11 not enough to beat Grove City if they all came together as one team

The only reason I'm picking St Vincent over W&J for the is because of the dual meet result. Of course, on that line of thinking they should also finish 3rd in the men's meet since they beat Behrend in a dual meet, but I think they lose the numbers game - their roster is just too small. The way they've been performing the past couple years does make me wonder how long it will be before they're challenging for team titles. They've improved a lot.

weedwacker2000
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by weedwacker2000 » Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:00 pm

Elroy Jetson wrote:This 159.5 point thing just doesn't sound right. I follow the argument, but it seems like Westminster is going to run away with it. Looking at midseason times I feel like it's probably going to be about 100 points in the Titans favor by the end of the meet
Clearly the number I arrived at is somewhat arbitrary, and surely if someone else were to do another set of statistics, there would be another end result. The 100 point gap that EJ mentions doesn't factor in diving. Last year Grove City had their same two divers, and they used up two places in the 18 roster limit. (A decision, I might add, that did not pay off for them.) Looks like this year both will be only diving, thus freeing up another roster slot for a swimmer. Last year taking up two slots the two of them scored 44 points. This year with one diving only slot they should be around 60-62 points. Also the diver Westminster has this year is not as good as the one they had last year. Overall a gain for Grove City.

Yet my comments in Grove City's favor are mitigated by Westminster's sophomore class, which I mentioned earlier is swimming much better than last year. Last year these six guys only scored 7 out of 18 swims in the championship heat. This year they should be up around 13 or 14 swims in the championship heat, which is a significant point differential.

My opinion for 3rd place for the women - W&J will beat out St. Vincent, although it will be close.

weedwacker2000
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by weedwacker2000 » Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:18 am

Having now looked over the psych sheet, I would definite agree with EJ that Westminster should take the men's championship. After all they must be pretty hungry for this after five years of second place.

However for the women, it seems that Coach Fritz has the luxury of exhibitioning a gal currently seeded 2nd and 4th in the breaststroke events. I know she has a very weak 3rd event, but still that's a lot of potential points to give up. There must be sometime we "armchair" fans of PAC swimming and diving don't know about.

Anyway - best wishes for all who compete! Looks to be a great meet, with a lot of fast swimming, and good diving.

weedwacker2000
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by weedwacker2000 » Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:21 pm

Another exciting Longnecker Invitational meet and PAC championship! As usual I like to make some comments, which may or may not render discussion.

1. I believe it is unprecedented that all 18 swimming events were won by one team. Congrats to the Grove City women for their amazing efforts! Most if not all of the victories were by substantial margins; no touch outs this time. Interesting to also note that several of their exhibition swimmers would have made the championship finals, perhaps more so than last year. As well, I was pleased that Coach Fritz had the gals time-trial the 400 med relay, because I knew they could do better than what they posted in winning on Thursday night. Indeed in dropping nearly two more seconds, they now are well assured of an invitation to Nationals in that event.

2. The Westminster and St.Vincent women all swam really well, far better than in 2012. I definitely was wrong about the St.Vincent team losing out to W&J. They swam far better than expected I think, and surely their coach is deserving of the "coach of the year" title. Sadly W&J did not show up at this meet - certainly an off year for them. Even though Westminster lost Lehberger and Beecher through graduation, the rest of the returners and new freshmen dropped times all over the place to be somewhat competitive to Grove City (i.e. losing by just 150 vs 300 in 2012). Westminster is well positioned to make a run at the championship in 2014, given the fact that GCC loses its stellar senior class.

3. For the men. We knew it would be close. Congrats to Westminster for eeking out a close victory by 13 points! I thought to myself that because Behrend kept on winning relays and generally interfering ( :wink:) with the PAC teams, Grove City may have won the meet if it were rescored just for the PAC teams. Yet when I did that the result remained the same - Westminster wins by a small margin.

4. Several noteworthy swims by the men. For Grove City, Dave Bossert's three victories stand out, and all personal records for him. For W&J, frosh Kevin Dunigan stands out with some really good swims and bodes well for future years. (Was he a transfer? I don't remember his name from earlier.) And of course for Westminster, both Steven Brooks and Matt Baurle had a great meet by breaking team and conference records. Looks like Baurle will pick up an invite to Nationals and continue WC's tradition of sending solid breaststrokers. I trust he will have good retaper and thus can score points.

5. Overall a memorable conference meet, and superlative annoucing by Outside Smoker!!

juniorswimmer
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by juniorswimmer » Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:13 pm

I don't have anything to add after sitting through the entire meet I agree with all your comments. I too agree with #5, the announcer did a fantastic job. Looks like there is a new post meet dance, Harlem Shake: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEpoc2DxX0s.

2015kittybackstroke
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by 2015kittybackstroke » Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:41 pm

I want to first congratulate all the teams and swimmers for creating such a great and successfully fast PAC championship again this year. Watching this meet from the outside instead of swimming as I did last year, this was one of the most fun meets I have ever been to. Seeing how all the teams interacted with each other and supported each other throughout a grueling three day meet was a joy to see and I can't wait to get back in the water next year and be apart of it after this year off. Multiple swims stand out to me, first off both of the Miles. I believe that this year the men's mile might have been one of the fastest it has been in a long time. From top to bottom of the psych sheet, almost everyone went either a personal best or season best. Plus a huge congrats to David Bossert of GCC for being the only 3 event male winner this year.

The relays could not have been better this year as those relay points were huge to the outcome of the meet. If you switch GCC and Westminster in the 800 Free Relay alone, the final score would be 735-734 in favor of Westminster. Relays are always key and it will be exciting to see how the play into the meet again next year.

As the meet seems to be getting faster year after year, the pool records, especially on the men's side look to be reachable again. With Matt Baurle taking down both the 100 and 200 breast pool records, Steven Brooks getting within a couple of seconds in the 200 back and Dan Simon/ Brooks for again being close to the Rob Barry record in the 100 back, we could see multiple more go down in the coming years before they all graduate.

Again congrats to all the swimmers and divers who competed this past weekend, good luck to all those going on to Nationals down in Texas, a special thanks to Outside smoker for great announcing and only 362 days until we meet to do it all again. Whoop!!

weedwacker2000
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by weedwacker2000 » Tue Mar 19, 2013 3:26 pm

What with Nationals starting tomorrow, I thought I would share something about the PAC swimmers there in Texas. Beginning with Matt Baurle from Westminster: He should do well, as Coach Klamut has an excellent record of getting great retapers out of his breaststokers. It's likely he could make championship finals in at least one of the events, maybe both.

Just not sure what to expect from the seven Grove City gals. I suspect (and others may verify) that Baker, Palumbo, Riesmeyer and Ryan have not done a full taper this season. If that is the case then they should move up from their seeding by the psych sheet, and may even hit top ten once again in the team standings. Out of the nine teams which placed ahead of them last year, two teams (TCNJ and C-M-S) clearly will not be returning to the top ten. However Amherst, Gustavus, Washington Univ. St. L, and Wheaton (with superfrosh Kirsten Nitz) could all place ahead of Grove City. Coach Fritz will need good retapers out of Cassano and Hess for the medley relays to score, but I'm thinking the 400MR has a better chance. Hopefully Megan Bilko can get some points in the 1650.
All in all I believe the three seniors will want to finish their college swimming on a positive note with another great meet, as well as team & personal records. It's been an amazing journey for them. I wish them well.

masterswimmer
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by masterswimmer » Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:08 am

Weedwacker you do your homework. GCC and Westminster represented their conference well. Look forward to 3 more years of Baurle tearing it up after his impressive 8th place finish in the 100 breaststroke. Reviewing the results from the NCAA championship, it sure was a battle for GCC to move up from last year's 10th place finish. Gustavus, Wash St L., Wheaton, and Amherst along with MIT provided great battles for GCC. It looks like the women from GCC stepped up and did fantastic. All 5 relays scored which I believe may be a first for that accomplishment. Palumbo grabbed a top 8 in the 100 free for a great final night and scorched the water in all her record setting relays along with resetting her 100 & 200 free school records. Combine that with Ryan's screaming 50 free in the relays (and many thought of her as a distant swimmer!). She even set the school 50 free record and lead all 3 free relays to new school records. Riesmeyer's crucial points in the fly both in relays and individual events have become almost expected but it was also exciting to see her put in a true senior effort with her freestyle swims in the relays which was crucial to them resetting school records in all 3 free relays.

It was great to see all 7 GCC swimmers garner All-American recognition. Hess, Cassano, Baker, & Bilko are poised to provide the leadership for the future of Grove City College's women's swimming. We can all thank the entire class of 2013 for taking GCC women to the championship level for all 4 years and the efforts of the 3 musketeers, Palumbo, Riesmeyer and Ryan to make them a top ranked national team. Who would have thought in October 2009 that those young freshmen would end up on the national stage and on the final awards stand of their college career (400 free relay at NCAA championship).
2010 - 11th, 2011-11th, 2012 -10th, 2013 - 9th.....2014 - 8th?. A great trend for GCC and PAC swimming.

swimswam03
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by swimswam03 » Tue Mar 26, 2013 10:50 am

anybody else see dan simon from Behrend made NCAA's in the 100 back? 49.79 for a 12th place finish. Almost a second faster than he was at conference champs. Very impressive

weedwacker2000
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Re: End of 2012-13 season stuff

Post by weedwacker2000 » Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:04 pm

I meant to post this last week -

Just a few final comments if I may be so indulged. Overall just stellar performances at Nationals for all of the PAC swimmers. Indeed many personal and team records were broken, and so I offer heart-felt congratulations to each of the All-Americans for their successes, training, time commitments and friendships made during the course of this season as well as previous seasons.

I turn my attention to the 3 Grove City seniors who have made an incredible impact in the women's program these past four years. Personally I have not met any of the current swimmers, as my time in close connection with Grove City swimming ended after Caleb's senior year in 2009. However I remember talking with Dave Fritz the last day at Nationals in 2009, and he was real excited about many of the freshman recruits (class of 2013) that would be swimming for Grove City that fall. Now four years later I think masterswimmer has summed it up very well:
masterswimmer wrote:We can all thank the entire class of 2013 for taking GCC women to the championship level for all 4 years and the efforts of the 3 musketeers, Palumbo, Riesmeyer and Ryan to make them a top ranked national team. Who would have thought in October 2009 that those young freshmen would end up on the national stage and on the final awards stand of their college career (400 free relay at NCAA championship).

Oddly none of the three qualified as individuals to Nationals this year, whereas last year all three did. But it seemed to me that Coach Fritz was concentrating heavily this year on the relays. For example Jenny Ryan's 200 and 400 IM times were slower than last year at Nationals, but what amazing drops in time for her freestyle sprinting. Wow! Where did the 23.55 come from? or the 22.8 split at the end of the 200 medley relay? Even the 51.51 leading off the 400 FR was pretty impressive for her. (And all this from lane 1 - Outside Smoker would be very proud.) Then there were Katie Riesmeyer's contributions to all 5 relays. Her individual fly swims were good but not that stellar, however she had some fantastic splits in the relays. She definitely played a factor in them getting school records for the free relays. Finally for Angie Palumbo - just an amazingly consistent swim career at Grove City. Congrats to her for breaking Caleb's number of All-American awards at GCC, plus getting personal and team records in the 100 and 200, as well as the relays.

Anyway lots of good memories for us Grove City swim fans. The class of 2013 will certainly be missed.

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