Championship predictions, 2011

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Which women's team will win the PAC championship?

Poll ended at Sat Feb 19, 2011 11:18 pm

Grove City College
4
40%
Grove City by +100 points
3
30%
Westminster College
1
10%
Wash. & Jeff. College
2
20%
Other (SVC, Chatham or Bethany)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 10

weedwacker2000
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Championship predictions, 2011

Post by weedwacker2000 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 11:18 pm

Let's try to get some discussion going for PACs and GCC invitational, which begins next week. The winning team for the men is pretty much a sure thing. The GCC men should break 1000 points this year for the first time. The winner for the women seems less clear, so I've added a poll to find out what others think.

What about individual events? Can Grove City finally sweep the men's relays? Who else will qualify for Nationals besides Lehberger and Herdt, and the GCC women's 800 relay?

Elroy Jetson
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Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by Elroy Jetson » Fri Feb 11, 2011 1:57 pm

weedwacker2000 wrote:Can Grove City finally sweep the men's relays?
It's hard to believe that they haven't in recent memory. I was curious so I had to look it up:
2005 (Courage's first year) - lost 200 FR (3rd leg hurt), DQ'd 800 (not that it would have won anyway), lost 400 FR (no splits on web page)
2006 - Trunk has insane split in final leg of 800 - Westminster beats GC by .05 for only relay defeat
2007 - Westminster strong in all 4 strokes, win 400 MR by .36 for only relay defeat
2008 - without Courage GC lacks some depth and loses 800 to WC - wasn't close
2009 - GC DQ's 400 FR - no relays were close and they would have won this one by about 8 seconds
2010 - WC opens meet with upset of GC in 200 FR by .01

I didn't look up BC (before Courage) as Westminster was much more dominant then.

weedwacker2000
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Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by weedwacker2000 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 11:22 pm

Elroy Jetson wrote:I didn't look up BC (before Courage) as Westminster was much more dominant then.
It's certainly possible Grove City might have swept the relays back in the mid 1990s, but we have no internet record of those. While I'm on the subject of relays, here's my take on them -

Men
200FR - GCC, West., Behrend. //Grove City takes it this time mainly because Fairchild is swimming faster this year. Coach may also put in Coppelli over Gummel for one of the legs.

400MR - GCC, West., Behrend

200MR - GCC, West., Behrend. //I'm not sure which of the medleys Gagliardo swims, but this one has the best chance to get an invite to Nationals in my opinion.

800FR - GCC, Behrend, West. //There's a slim, but possible chance for Grove City to get an invite here. All four guys really need to hit their tapers.

400FR - GCC, West., Behrend. //There's a slim possibility Behrend may take second.

Women
200FR - GCC, Wash & Jeff., West. //Will Lehberger sit this one out? I'm thinking she will.

400MR - West., GCC, Wash & Jeff. //Herdt's strength in the breaststroke is too much to overcome for anyone else to beat them.

200MR - West., GCC, Wash & Jeff. //Toss up? This one could go either way. It may depend if Palumbo swims here.

800FR - GCC, West., Wash & Jeff. //Possible "A" cut for the wolverines, or will they rely on their time from December?

400FR - GCC, West., Wash & Jeff

OutsideSmoker27
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Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by OutsideSmoker27 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 12:49 am

Having been COMPLETELY out of the loop for the entire season, I hope that no one will begrudge me a little bit of surprise -- well, no, actually a lot of surprise -- at the chances that the Behrend men have of rising convincingly into the ranks of the Big 3 at the meet this year. The fact that W&J’s relegation to fourth place is assumed is still sinking in for me. Also, under ordinary circumstances, I would assume a 17-man roster for Westminster to be worth at least a 170-point advantage automatically against an equal-sized roster from Behrend (actually, I just made that number up on the mathematically easy grounds that it equals a 10-point advantage per athlete; but I still think it would ordinarily work), and then just keep building up on the advantage from there. The fact that there may be nothing close to that this year is astonishing to me, and it feels to me like a perfect storm has developed: solid retention or recruiting (or both?) in Erie at exactly the moment when they have taken a brief time-out in New Wilmington and Washington. Not that it’s all luck. I give Jen Wallace and her staff plenty of credit -- you have to have skill in order to take advantage of fortuitous circumstances, and it appears that they are very nicely positioned to do so.

But on to the weedwacker’s original questions: for national qualifiers, I think at least Krystal Kovach, and probably Bethany Haver too, will get cuts in diving. Beyond that......uhhhhhhh..........

As for the women's winner: since I'm not up on the present too well, I'll refer first to the past. Lest anyone should be bring up W&J's perfect dual meet season, let's don't forget that using dual meet victories, even ones that happen AFTER Christmas, to predict PACs standings is a little bit like assuming that you'll love oranges because you had some good orange jello last week. I'll pass over my favorite example (the GC men in 2004) and keep to within the memory of very recent graduates and current team members: 1) 2007, when the GC men narrowly defeated Westminster in the dual meet, before losing at PACs, 2) 2008, when Westminster’s men thrashed GC soundly at the dual meet and lost by the width of a thick razor three weeks later. It's a little more difficult to find examples for the women (which is unfortunate, since it is, after all, the women's meet I'm talking about here); the closest is 2008, which paralleled the men pretty remarkably between Westminster and GC -- except that Westminster's women would have beaten Grove City at PACs too if they hadn’t DQ’d their 200 medley relay. I can't find any examples at all involving W&J, but maybe this year will give us one.

On the matter of evidence from the present, my look at the top times list has been pretty cursory, and I haven't factored in any influence from the AMCC, but I'll go ahead and give my opinions anyway. I get the sense that W&J, while they have what I'd like to call solid medium depth (i.e. strong in roughly the 5-10th place range), they don't have any superstars and they aren't dominant in any event or class of events. Worse, while they may manage to sneak in a 2nd-place finish in one of the relays at the meet, the fact remains that every one of their relays is ranked 3rd -- which is where I think they are most likely to land up as a team. Westminster is good on the superstars, and they have some depth backing them up further down the list, which makes their relays strong. The same could be said of GC, too. I think what tips the balance for me is Grove City’s overall dominance in the short and mid-distance frees, which is unequaled in any other category by anyone else. I vote GC, but not to the point of declaring it a victory of 100+, at least not yet.
Families share the bond of blood; teams share the bond of toil, tears, and sweat. Both share the bond of the heart.

OutsideSmoker27
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Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by OutsideSmoker27 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 1:06 am

Also, ignore the fact that I ignored the fact that Krystal Kovach isn't diving for Behrend this year.
Families share the bond of blood; teams share the bond of toil, tears, and sweat. Both share the bond of the heart.

weedwacker2000
Posts: 232
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:56 pm

Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by weedwacker2000 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 3:05 pm

OutsideSmoker27 wrote:Having been COMPLETELY out of the loop for the entire season
Hey! Welcome back Drew! It's good to have your input again. Will you be putting together the championship website again, or has your schedule been really busy of late, and someone else is getting a chance?

OutsideSmoker27
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Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by OutsideSmoker27 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 8:49 pm

I'm putting the website up again this year, though it's not quite completely updated (and therefore not uploaded) yet. Look for it on Monday, finally finished or not.

Also trying out a Facebook page this year: http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=191389170885420. We'll see how that one goes. Feel free to let anyone/everyone know.
Families share the bond of blood; teams share the bond of toil, tears, and sweat. Both share the bond of the heart.

weedwacker2000
Posts: 232
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:56 pm

Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by weedwacker2000 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:32 am

Championship website looks great! Thanks!

For the record I have some last minute predictions:

1. It's gonna be a fast meet; maybe not as fast as 2009, but certainly faster than last year's.
2. Jake Scherer from Westminster will break Matt Bailey's 30 year-old conference record in the 1650.:D
3. Clay Beckner from GCC (and Chambersburg, where I work) will break Kenko Nagai's 10 year-old pool record in the 100 breast. Go Clay!
4. Caitlyn Lehberger, Kait Riesmeyer and Angela Palumbo will all share the high point award for the women.
5. The Grove City women will set new pool records in the free relays, reclaiming two which had been snatched from them this year.
6. Grove City men and women will once again sweep the invitational and PAC championships. From the times coming into the meet, and the number of swimmers who can score, they just have too much depth to be denied the victories.

swimforlife
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Team Affiliation: Grove City College

Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by swimforlife » Thu Feb 17, 2011 5:16 am

Agree with all that weedwacker2000 posted but have one more comment to add. What is up with GCC/Fritz? He must be a great poker player with a true wild card swimmer on the women's team. It looks like Ryan is listed in every individual event. I am sure he is watching to see how the women's meet progresses (I predict it to be very tight) and then will place Ryan in the events he feels he needs her. Either Lehberger, Riesemeyer or Palumbo may get the high point award (or tie as you predict) but Ryan ought to get the most versatile award!
Line 'em up it is time to race!!! Hope the PAC can send a bunch to UT for Nationals.

weedwacker2000
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Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:56 pm

Re: Championship predictions, 2011

Post by weedwacker2000 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 11:29 pm

I had meant to get back to this thread two months ago, but anyway for the record I hope to draw this to a proper conclusion by commenting on some of the predictions I put forth.
weedwacker2000 wrote:For the record I have some last minute predictions:

1. It's gonna be a fast meet; maybe not as fast as 2009, but certainly faster than last year's.
2. Jake Scherer from Westminster will break Matt Bailey's 30 year-old conference record in the 1650.
3. Clay Beckner from GCC (and Chambersburg, where I work) will break Kenko Nagai's 10 year-old pool record in the 100 breast. Go Clay!
4. Caitlyn Lehberger, Kait Riesmeyer and Angela Palumbo will all share the high point award for the women.
5. The Grove City women will set new pool records in the free relays, reclaiming two which had been snatched from them this year.
6. Grove City men and women will once again sweep the invitational and PAC championships. From the times coming into the meet, and the number of swimmers who can score, they just have too much depth to be denied the victories.
1. Correct prediction. Pretty much all the relays and most of the individual victories were faster than 2010. PS Behrend swam a lot faster.
2. Didn't quite happen. Almost. Jake - you can't let us down next year, no sophomore slump, please!!
3. Clay swam better mid season, and appeared not to have a good taper at PACs. Nagai's record stands.
4. I orginally made the prediction thinking these three would each get 60 points. Didn't quite happen as I predicted, since Erin Erdley from Westminster (with amazing victories in the 1650 and 200 back) joins the three others for a 4-way tie for high point honors. (57 points each)
5. Well, GCC set two out of three pool records in the free women's free relays. Coach Fritz decided not to stack the 800 relay for PACs
6. Correct prediction

I also predicted the order of finish for all the relays. Amazingly I got the men's relays right on and in correct order, despite getting a scare from the 400 FR. For the women I got it fairly close. I thought Lehberger would swim the 400 instead of the 200 FR, and I thought Palumbo would not swim the 200MR, but I fully agree with coach's decision to put her there instead of the 800 relay. One last comment - I suggested that if the GCC men would swim well in 800 FR they could probably score an invite to nationals. Sadly it was theirs for the taking, but their effort was inadequate compared to how those four guys swam the 200 free earlier in the evening.

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