GAC vs Carleton

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GAC vs Carleton

Post by Schiller » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:19 pm

The Gustavus women have been in the top 2 in the conference 10 years in a row, but they've been on a fairly rapid downward trajectory since finishing 10th in the country a couple years ago. They've clearly been supplanted as the top team by Thomas and now the rest of the pack is catching up. They barely escaped with a win over St Olaf earlier this year and have an even tougher test coming up this weekend in Northfield. Carleton's a senior heavy team that's been beaten up by Gustavus their entire careers and finally has a chance to take down the longtime conference bully. I expect they'll be pretty amped up for this meet.

Unless Gustavus has been hiding something so far, this should be a close meet. Carleton win simulated meets based on this season's best times 155-102. Gustavus wins narrowly based on the teams respective results from Carleton/Thomas and Gustavus/Olaf 125-118. If you're wondering how reliable a predictive metric that is, running the same comparison with last year's Carleton/Thomas and Gustavus/Olaf results correctly predicts GAC steam rolling Carleton.

These sims don't include diving, and the meet might come down to diving. The Carleton divers haven't matched up much with the GAC divers so far. One GAC diver was at Jean Freeman where she narrowly beat Carleton's top diver on the 1 meter.

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