MIAC's 2019

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MIAC's 2019

Post by Schiller » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:22 pm

Psych Sheets are out. https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/x ... _sheet.pdf

I like the new format. Starting Thursday afternoon allows people to miss less class, and the 4 day format breaks up the meet more.

Scored out the psych sheet. I cut people that were over entered down the their 3 best seeded events, reseeded and scored. For the couple of swimmers where their 4th and 3rd best seeded events had the same seed I tried to give them events on all 3 days.

St. Thomas 765
St. Catherine 628
Gustavus 477
St. Olaf 427
Carleton 342
Saint Benedict 230
Hamline 158
Macalester 138
Concordia 115
Saint Mary's MN 71
Augsburg 65

As it's been all season: welcome to the party St Kate's. Their program hasn't competed at this level before, but they also haven't had close to this talent level before. Their stars are seeded so high it's hard to find points for them to pick up, but they're so good it's also hard to see them falling off much either. Thomas is deep enough that they should be fine, but if Kate's pull in another class like this one next year, watch out.

GAC and Olaf usually pick up points over seed so they should narrow the gap to 2nd, but Kate's is so far ahead it looks like a battle for 3rd between them.

St. Thomas 844
Gustavus 740
St. Olaf 426
Carleton 348
St. John's 313
Hamline 210
Macalester 195
Saint Mary's MN 120

Last year the psych sheet had Thomas 912 GAC 607. At the meet it was Thomas 908 GAC 759. Psych sheet scores dont' include diving so accounting for diving Thomas dropped off a little in swimming points (about 60) and GAC gained a little (about 30).

GAC's diving mob is back this year. They have 4 divers to Thomas's 2. Grabowski was able to limit Thomas's diving losses a bit last year, but he's gone now. Serleth looks pretty good, but he's not enough to do more than replace Grabowski. GAC is going to close a lot of this gap on the boards.

That means one exciting thing: for the first time in a while it looks like we will have a competitive men's meet at the top.

Carleton/John's should be good too.

I'd love to hear someone's picks in each event. If I have some time later this week I'll run a more in depth analysis of the seed stability.

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by swimstats4 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:45 pm

Predicted winners for 2019:
50 Free: Maggie Webster (Gustavus)
100 Free: Macy Klein (Kates)
200 Free: Maggie Menso (Kates)
500 Free: Maggie Menso (Kates)
1650 Free: Maggie Menso (Kates)
100 Back: Taylor Martinek (Hamline)
200 Back: Kirsten Nelson (Thomas)
100 Breast: Jordyn Wentzel (Kates)
200 Breast: Jordyn Wentzel (Kates)
100 Fly: Katelyn Strauss (Thomas)
200 Fly: Katelyn Strauss (Thomas)
200 I.M.: Jordyn Wentzel (Kates)
400 I.M.: Helen Jensen (Olaf)
200 Free Relay: St. Kates
400 Free Relay: St. Kates
800 Free Relay: St. Kates
200 Medley Relay: St. Thomas
400 Medley Relay: St. Thomas

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by StatisticsK1ng » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:37 am

Looks like swimmer/coach/future PhD.-math whiz/passion-commentator extraordinaire Andy Hardt is back at it again with a tremendous, near-seven-minute preview on the MIAC's of 2019. I'll let that video speak for itself.


As for my own personal predictions, I'll begin with ladies first:

50 free: Mather (Carleton)
100 free: Klein (SCU)
200 free: Menso (SCU)
500 free: " "
1650 free: " "
100 back: Punyko (Olaf)
200 back: Nelson (UST)
100 breast: Wentzel (SCU)
200 breast: " "
100 fly: Strauss (UST)
200 fly: " "
200 IM: Wentzel (SCU)
400 IM: Rizzo (Olaf)
200 FR: SCU
400 FR: SCU
800 FR: SCU
200 MR: UST
400 MR: UST

SOTM: Menso (SCU)

And the men...

50 free: Allison (GAC)
100 free: Negaard (UST)
200 free: Larson (GAC)
500 free: Boerner (UST)
1650 free: Reischmann (MAC)
100 back: Loepfe (Olaf)
200 back: " "
100 breast: Sonnek (GAC)
200 breast: " "
100 fly: Negaard (UST)
200 fly: Stone (UST)
200 IM: Sonnek (GAC)
400 IM: Larson (UST)
200 FR: UST
400 FR: UST
800 FR: GAC
200 MR: UST
400 MR: UST

SOTM: Sonnek (GAC)

Can't predict/make assumptions on diving, especially when all the psych sheet has is diving order. Sure, you get the number of divers a team has, but there's not even a season's best score on there; the world-society of psych sheet drafting ought to improve on that, but maybe that's a complaint for a forum on D3diving.com (if that exists).

As for meet winners, I'm going with a close, fun and exciting meet on both men's and women's meets.

Women's final:
2. SCU
3. Olaf
4. GAC
5. Carleton
6. CSB
7. Hamline
8. Mac
9. Concordia
10. SMU
11. Augsburg

Men's final:
1. UST
2. GAC
3. Olaf
4. SJU
5. Carleton
6. Hamline
7. Mac
8. SMU

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by Schiller » Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:52 pm

Getting my team race picks in just under the wire. Picking the GAC upset is a good way to look like a fool quickly, but I'm doing it anyway. I think diving gets them over the top. I won't be surprised if GAC or UST men win. I'll only be surprised if it's a blow out.

1. GAC
2. UST
3. Olaf
4. SJU
5. Car
6. Hamline
7. MAC
8. SMU

1. UST
2. SCU
3. GAC
4. STO
5. CAR
6. CSB
7. HAM
8. MAC
9. CON
10. SMU
11. AUG

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by NarwhalNeil » Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:12 am

I'm excited to get back into MIAC swimming. I've got a UST bias, but I'm excited to see the competition. It looks like the MIAC is generally a strong conference, and while UST is not necessarily weaker than they were in the past few years, other teams such as SCU, GAC, and Olaf have proven to be serious contenders. With more than one power house team on each side, I think the MIAC continues to improve and become a conference to take seriously on the national level.

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by Bhigbabi55 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:21 am

Love the bold pick on the men's side Schiller. I agree, it is anyone's meet especially after watching the first night roll through. Gusties looked really strong coming out in the 800 free relay with a quick 1:41 lead off and having Matt Allison obviously swimming fast again really adds to their repertoire. Tommies however came right back with a killer 200 medley relay, just .09 shy of a meet record. I noticed the Tommies didn't stack the 800 free relay and the Gusties didn't stack their 200 medley either, which means they are both putting everything into next three relays which could change the momentum of the meet and probably determine a winner. It is still really tough to say anything with the new meet design having these two relays right away, but this is the closest the Gusties have come to the Tommies and it is going to be an absolute 4 day battle through Sunday. I got my Tommies coming out on top, but it is all up to the Tapir Gods now to determine the crown of the worlds greatest sporting competition.
Screen Shot 2019-02-15 at 12.20.50 AM.png
Screen Shot 2019-02-15 at 12.20.50 AM.png (174.42 KiB) Viewed 8751 times

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by NarwhalNeil » Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:31 am

Mr. BhigBabi55, I appreciate the incredible enthusiasm!

What events are folks most exited about? While Sonnek is the big favourite in the breaststroke events, I'm excited to see the race. This is a deep event. The MeetMobile results are screwed up, but 24.16 split for Sonnek and Faldet finished at 24.83 on the 200 medely.

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by Schiller » Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:33 pm

Score after last night+ scored prelims from this morning (dive prelims aren't updated on the live results so the below is without the women's 3 meter):

St. Thomas|251.5
St John's|117.5
St. Olaf|109.0
Saint Mary'|51.0
St. Catherine|184.0
St. Thomas|176.0
St. Olaf|136.0
Saint Benedict|73.0
Saint Mary'|34.0

Score this morning's prelims only:
St. Thomas|152.5
St. John's|48.5
St. Olaf|23.0
St. Catherine|114.0
St. Thomas|102.0
St. Olaf|70.0
Saint Benedict|21.0

St. Thomas|8/6
St. John's|1/5
St. Olaf|1/3
St. Catherine|7/1
St. Thomas|6/4
St. Olaf|3/4
Saint Benedict|1/3

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by Dmitri I. Mendeleev » Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:32 pm

NarwhalNeil wrote: With more than one power house team on each side, I think the MIAC continues to improve and become a conference to take seriously on the national level.

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I tend to disagree. I don't think anyone is looking to the MIAC to see who is making it to Nationals. Yes, I think that we have always sent a handful of good swimmers...but on the national level I do not see the MIAC as a threat to other teams.

Take today's 500 and 200IM - comparative to D3 swimming, both on the men's and women's side, it is incredibly slow this year.

NEWMAC, NESAC, UAA, NCAC - those are the conferences I think of when I think national level.
Though, that's just my opinion. The MIAC has oscillated so much - some years they are strong and others they are not so much. Overall, I think it has become a little stagnant. Remedied, I think, by just more consistency in recruiting classes year after year, though.

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by Schiller » Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:50 pm

Scored Prelims + scores after finals yesterday
Gustavus 645
St. Thomas 500.5
St. Olaf 282
St John's 237.5
Carleton 232
Macalester 131
Hamline 112
Saint Mary' 60

St. Thomas 477
St. Catherine 360
Gustavus 335
St. Olaf 286
Carleton 255.5
Saint Benedict 172
Hamline 104
Concordia 78.5
Saint Mary' 57
Augsburg 39
Macalester 30

Scores this morning's prelims only:
Gustavus 285
St. Thomas 220.5
St. Olaf 137
Carleton 110
St. John's 94.5
Macalester 33
Hamline 26
Saint Mary's MN 9

St. Thomas 216
Gustavus 122
St. Catherine 117
St. Olaf 111
Carleton 109.5
Saint Benedict 56
Hamline 26
Macalester 9
Concordia 8.5

Gustavus 17/4
St. Thomas 15/3
St. Olaf 7/6
Carleton 4/10
St. John's 4/8
Macalester 1/5
Hamline 0/4
Saint Mary's MN 0/3

St. Thomas 13/5
Gustavus 7/8
Carleton 6/7
St. Olaf 6/3
St. Catherine 4/6
Saint Benedict 3/4
Hamline 1/1
Macalester 0/4
Concordia 0/3

The team race appears to be solidifying. GAC men and UST women really pulled away this morning. It's going to take something pretty crazy tomorrow for either of them to lose now. The one glimmer of hope for the Tommie men: GAC are finally out of diving events. The crushing reality: 145 points is a BIG lead, and the GAC men have been on fire.

Heinzel's meet continues to astound. After a 56.1 split last night, he goes 55.9 this morning breaking a 20+ year old school record. Apparently he was 24 50 free 1:06 100 breast in high school. Also Meyer took down Lydia Nielsen's iconic Carleton 100 breast record. I'm very interested to see if either of those two have more in the tank tonight.

The Thomas women's depth started to overwhelm Kate's today and there's no reason to think tomorrow will be any different.

If you're looking for night session recap's, I'll direct you to Andy Hardt's excellent recaps on SwimSwam
https://swimswam.com/st-catherines-mens ... ips-day-2/
https://swimswam.com/day-1-of-miac-cham ... le-record/

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by Schiller » Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:39 pm

Scored Prelims+scores after last night (no dive prelims, not online yet. No mile included either)
Gustavus 867.5
St. Thomas 688
St. Olaf 383
St. John's 354
Carleton 344.5
Macalester 171
Hamline 164
St. Jo 116
Saint Mary' 83

St. Thomas 662
Gustavus 501
St. Catherine 491
St. Olaf 375
Carleton 366
Saint Benedict 243
Hamline 148
Concordia 115
Macalester 69
Saint Mary' 69
Augsburg 55

Scored Prelims only
Gustavus 183.0
St. Thomas 151.5
Carleton 87.5
St. John's 87.0
St. Olaf 68.0
Hamline 26.0
Macalester 16.0
Saint Mary's MN 1.0

St. Thomas 145.0
Gustavus 137.0
St. Catherine 99.0
Carleton 78.0
St. Olaf 59.0
Saint Benedict 45.0
Hamline 28.0
Concordia 14.0
Macalester 13.0
Augsburg 2.0

Up Downs
Gustavus 10/3
St. Thomas 9/3
St. John's 5/4
St. Olaf 3/4
Carleton 3/12
Hamline 1/4
Macalester 1/1
Saint Mary's MN 0/1

St. Thomas 8/5
Gustavus 7/7
St. Catherine 5/4
St. Olaf 4/1
Carleton 3/6
Saint Benedict 2/4
Hamline 1/2
Macalester 1/1
Concordia 1/1
Augsburg 0/1

The winners seem decided, but there will be drama in the team race tonight. Carleton looks to have the slightest of edges for 4th over St John's. Carleton have 5 entries in the mile vs 0 for the Johnnies. (the mile isn't included in the prelims+real score projection from above). However, none of Carleton's milers are seeded above 11th so Carleton only projects to 3 points ahead overall. With 15 swims tonight (3 up 12 down) plus their milers this afternoon to John's 9 (5 up 4 down) Carleton really are in the drivers seat here. They have all the opportunities in the world to move up and take the meet, but at the same time that many swims gives them tons of places where they could move down and give it away.

The women's race for second is also on like donkey kong. Gustavus project to 10 more points than Kate's without considering the mile and diving. GAC out scored Kate's by 5 on the 3 meter, but Kate's are seeded to outscore the Gusties by 21 in the mile. If all that holds up it's Kate's by 6. Just like Carleton/Johns that means everything is on the table tonight/this afternoon. Kates have 5 up 4 down from the events this morning and the Gusties have 7 up 7 down.

One easy 6 points swing that stands out Klein vs Webster for the 100 free title. Klein is seeded 1st and Webster 2nd easily within striking distance. If Webster can flip that by winning tonight, that's a 6 point swing in GAC's favor. In a meet this close every swim counts. Swimmers moving up or down a couple places in the back half of a B final can decide this.

The no mile/diving projection has Carleton and Olaf women pretty close, but the Oles have 3 top 10 seeded milers and Carleton's only miler is seeded 12th. Unless something major changes there, or diving turns out to be a big swing the Oles should take 4th.

Swimming as a sport is at it's best when every place counts and every team involved have lots of swims. In Kate's vs GAC and Carleton vs John's we have a pair of dream scenarios. Tonight should be a whole lot of fun.

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Re: MIAC's 2019

Post by Schiller » Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:07 pm

One other thing to keep an eye on tonight Alison Cameron in the 200 fly. She went a 2:09.97 this morning threatening Kim Gillen's school record of 2:09.36 from 1983. It's not often a record that old goes down and it could happen tonight. With Nielsen's 100 breast record going down yesterday, the 200 fly is the last Careton women's record from before 2000.

Also here's the link to Andy's recap of last night: https://swimswam.com/saint-thomas-women ... -of-miacs/

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