This post from openwater in the National Championship Forum can be found here. Thanks for the great insight!
Heading into the last weekend the women’s qualifying is coming into focus.
Including the results from the SCIAC which just concluded last night, 140 individual A-cuts have been swum by a total of 83 swimmers. 41 of these swimmers are from 4 teams (Emory-15, Denison-11, Kenyon-8 and Williams-7) while the other 42 swimmers represent 31 other teams.
The 200Fr has only 6 A-cuts while the 1Bk has 20 A-cuts.
16 swimmers made the 2Fly A-cut while only 7 made the 1Fly A standard.
Only Stern (Amherst) and Swanson (Denison) have 4 individual A-cuts.
And then there is Emory’s “problem”. They have 15 women with individual A-cuts. In addition their relays were swum with 7 more swimmers – this is a total of 22 automatic invites, except they can only bring 18 ladies. If they bring the 3 (Rosenkranz, Lemberg, Klinzing) that swam the 2FR with Pavlak that gets them to 18. However they need Wolber who swam the fastest leg on their 4FR and who has the 2nd fastest 50 Free on the team. So I think they bump the 1st year Lemberg off the list of 18. But then there is the 800 problem. The only relay that did not make the A-cut was their 800 and it had Minowitz and Pak on it in addition to the 15 A-cut swimmers. The first-year Pak has the 2nd fastest open 200 on the team but is only 19th on the Top Times list. I think you leave her and the senior Minowitz at home (ouch). And then there is senior Kim who swam the fly leg of the 4MR but is much slower than Hackler over that distance – I think she is another spectator.
So unless John leaves some A-cut individuals at home in favor of better relay performance (which looks like the right choice for total points in the meet) the Emory team might be Horvat, Woodward, Aronoff, Michalak, Whitley, Mroz, Hackler, Manor, Nennig, Schneider, Culpepper, McDermott, Taylor, Lushinsky plus Rosenkranz, Klinzing and Wolber. Lemberg, Kim, Minowitz and Pak miss the flight to Tennessee due to an embarrassment of riches.
Remember that the NWC, UNYSCSA, and last chance meets are taking place this weekend which will add some new names to this discussion but I sure hope Emory stays home and trains – they don’t need any more fast swimming until March.
It will be extremely difficult for us swim-stalkers to pre-seed the meet because of the process change put in place this year. In 2010 we could just put 146 individuals in and then start adding relays until the total swimmer cap was reached. This year only the A-cuts get in before 16 relays (and 22 divers) are added in all 5 events. If those 80 relays bring in more than 96 (=264-22-146) non-A-cut swimmers then the excess over 96 will be taken away from the possible 146 individual event qualifiers. I will be quite surprised if the selection line gets to 20 this year – the number of A-cuts in the backstroke.