2019 NCAA Selection Line

What do you predict for nationals? Who is going to shine, who is not?

Moderators: Diesel471, ThePlowman, Nasty Natti

2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby wvswimfan88 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:13 pm

Well, I've started doing some work on exploring where the lines are going to fall, based on the times that currently exist on USA Swimming. Haven't made it to the men's yet, but right now, it looks like there is less overlap on the women's side this year and that the line is going to fall at 19 individuals and some of the 19 relays, based on the listed selection procedures. Looks like 200 Free and 200 Medley...200 Free already had all swimmers in, 200 Medley tops by percentage of remaining. That, with divers, got me to 318 individuals, meaning one more individual swimmer would be taken.

Obviously, this could be wrong on many levels - I included the 1650 time for Olivia Lyman, who was the one swimmer mysteriously not included on the women's side of the USA swimming rankings, but even if she's out, it's only a 1-for-1 change with NYU's Kapostasy. Last year we had a few swimmers remove themselves, too, and I didn't spend time (yet) checking for aggregate relays.

If anyone else has done any looking, I'm eager to hear confirmation of that or that I'm way off. Will do some research on the men's side this evening.
wvswimfan88
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:31 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby polarbear » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:41 pm

Is the number of people needed to be added a factor in selection process? i.e., if the 19th relay includes 3 swimmers already in the meet does that make them more likely to be taken? Bowdoin sits 19th in the 200FR with 3 of the 4 in . . . . . Didn't think it was a factor.
polarbear
Moderator
 
Posts: 994
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:42 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby polarbear » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:49 pm

polarbear wrote:Is the number of people needed to be added a factor in selection process? i.e., if the 19th relay includes 3 swimmers already in the meet does that make them more likely to be taken? Bowdoin sits 19th in the 200FR with 3 of the 4 in . . . . . Didn't think it was a factor.


You're right, their 400FR is 18th with the same crew and thus they are likely in

pre-psych sheet is up on the USA Swimming site
polarbear
Moderator
 
Posts: 994
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:42 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby wvswimfan88 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:01 pm

Polarbear, to answer your question about the relays, I don't think they do, but I'm not sure. If they did, with four slots remaining, they certainly could take the remaining swimmers from BSC's 400 Free and Case Western's 400 Med - two swimmers each - over the three of Hope. But that would be a bit of a slap in the face to Hope and be contrary to their policy of using the % over B-Cut, as BSC and CWRU have the two lowest percentages in that comparison.

Just finished going through the men's meet... Looks to me like our cut is going to be at 15 (I think) for individual events and that 15 relays will get in for all but the 800 free relay. It's a touch more complicated because both Kenyon and Denison have 20 swimmers who are either in the top 16 of events or on sure-to-be-selected relays, and I never really remember in the process where that gets cut down to (presumably, since both have regional divers) 17.

Thanks for pointing out the pre-selection entries list. Will give that a look and see what it affects.
wvswimfan88
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:31 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby pops » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:47 am

polarbear wrote:Just finished going through the men's meet... Looks to me like our cut is going to be at 15 (I think) for individual events and that 15 relays will get in for all but the 800 free relay. It's a touch more complicated because both Kenyon and Denison have 20 swimmers who are either in the top 16 of events or on sure-to-be-selected relays, and I never really remember in the process where that gets cut down to (presumably, since both have regional divers) 17.


I haven't looked at it yet, but remember Denison (or Kenyon) could leave the diver(s) at home and go with 18 swimmers.
pops
 
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Mar 15, 2010 11:24 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby purpleandwhite » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:08 am

Good point about divers for teams that qualify both.

However, we won't know about divers until the regional diving selection process is completed Sunday night. The swimmers cap is net of 20 (men) or 29 (women) divers. Also doesn't the relay selection process work with after taking 16 they eliminate the relay that is slowest based on relative percentage difference to that relay's B cut and not based on who is already invited individually? (It's probably highly correlated in that relays with many invited swimmers is likely the fastest). So in my example look at line 16 and find the slowest relay, cut it and then see if the number exceeds the swimmers cap......if it does then go to the next slowest relay, etc.
purpleandwhite
 
Posts: 549
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:29 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby wvswimfan88 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:24 am

Pops - that's very true. Certainly possible, but may be less relevant when I re-run it with aggregate relays, as Denison for certain had a few guys that I may believe were relay only swimmers who will be out of the mix with fastest submitted.

I just finished running the women's meet based on the pre-selection sheet, and it appears that 19 lines for all events gets us to 290 swimmers on the nose (+29 divers for the total of 319 athletes). Again, I'm certainly fallible and we could see other unforseen things happen, but that looks like it's where that line will fall. Finishing up the men's shortly.
wvswimfan88
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:31 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby wvswimfan88 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:09 pm

EDITED:

Alright, just finished running the men's selections off the Pre-Selection Entries list.

Looks like the men's cut is make it through Line 15 for for all events and that one individual from Line 16 will make it as well (I have that as Caltech's Jasinski based on % under B-Cut). Realistically, that only REALLY affects two swimmers for now - Hopkins' Noah Frassrand and MIT's Josh Graves, as Kenyon would have needed to reduce their roster by one anyway. Denison will still need to removed two swimmers at this time, and I don't remember the procedure for replacements.
wvswimfan88
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:31 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby polarbear » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:27 pm

So how do you feel about a men's relay sitting 14th? Asking for a friend.
polarbear
Moderator
 
Posts: 994
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:42 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby wvswimfan88 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:42 pm

What friend might that be, polarbear? Haha.

I honestly wouldn't worry about any of the relays on line 14, and the one in question appears to be third of the five in terms of % below the B-Cut, so two other relays would get chopped before that one. Again, I THINK all Line 15 relays will be in with no issue.
wvswimfan88
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:31 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby pops » Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:50 pm

wvswimfan88 wrote:EDITED:

Alright, just finished running the men's selections off the Pre-Selection Entries list.

Looks like the men's cut is make it through Line 15 for for all events and that one individual from Line 16 will make it as well (I have that as Caltech's Jasinski based on % under B-Cut). Realistically, that only REALLY affects two swimmers for now - Hopkins' Noah Frassrand and MIT's Josh Graves, as Kenyon would have needed to reduce their roster by one anyway. Denison will still need to removed two swimmers at this time, and I don't remember the procedure for replacements.


Doesnt the team (Denison) decide who the entries will be when they have too many qualifiers?

[ Post made via iPhone ]
pops
 
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Mar 15, 2010 11:24 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby wvswimfan88 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:12 pm

pops wrote:
Doesnt the team (Denison) decide who the entries will be when they have too many qualifiers?

[ Post made via iPhone ]


Yes, pops, they do. I'm sorry, I was a little unclear about that. What I meant was this - once they have selected which two of their 20 to remove, I'm not sure exactly what the process is by which the committee replaces those swimmers. To me, it would make most sense to go to the next swimmer in the events from which they were removed, if they were an individual, or to the two other swimmers I mentioned before who were originally on Line 16, but I think they might go straight to their alternates list, which takes the top swimmers in all events by % under the B-Cut.
wvswimfan88
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:31 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby imJumbo » Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:50 am

I thought the teams had to submit their official entrants. So a coach wouldn’t be able to submit 20, only 18 to their official list. Perhaps this pre selection list just shows everyone that is a potential, and it’s the Denison coach who selects which 18 go, and then the lines fill normally, as though those 2 swimmers were never there.

[ Post made via iPhone ]
imJumbo
Moderator
 
Posts: 518
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2011 9:14 am

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby wvswimfan88 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:54 am

The pre selection list is indeed anyone who is a potential, imJumbo. Again, it only affects a few teams each year, but it prevents the Denison's and Kenyon's and Emory's from having to overly worry about knowing where every single one of their "bubble" swimmers stands, if they have them. None of Denison's were really at question this year, but say they have three who are likely hovering around lines 15-17, this allows them to give all of them the maximum chance instead of guessing wrong before knowing what other changes might happen to the sheet (invalid times corrected/swimmers pulling out/other changes). So yes, then, when more than 18 are officially selected, the committee contacts the coach and the coach has to be ready pretty much right away to make their cut to 18.

As for how those slots are filled, this is probably where the selection process is LEAST clear. For example, Denison has three relay-only swimmers among their 20, with two of those on the same relay (200 Med). What if they choose to get rid of those two? The other two still already qualify in individual events, so only two slots remain...the next 200 Medley Relay would need three slots to bring it up. So, then, where do the two slots go? See my point? It's pretty muddy there. The "cleanest/prettiest" solution for the committee and for balance is if Denison cuts Kurleto (very possible - only selected in one event, 2IM ranked 13th, lowest of individuals) and Gately (tied for next-lowest-ranking individual and a miler, so less likely to impact relays). If those two were removed, the next two who would slide up to Line 15 in those two events are the same two who wouldn't have been selected from the original Line 16.
wvswimfan88
 
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:31 pm

Re: 2019 NCAA Selection Line

Postby polarbear » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:20 am

wvswimfan88 wrote:
pops wrote:
Doesnt the team (Denison) decide who the entries will be when they have too many qualifiers?

[ Post made via iPhone ]


Yes, pops, they do. I'm sorry, I was a little unclear about that. What I meant was this - once they have selected which two of their 20 to remove, I'm not sure exactly what the process is by which the committee replaces those swimmers. To me, it would make most sense to go to the next swimmer in the events from which they were removed, if they were an individual, or to the two other swimmers I mentioned before who were originally on Line 16, but I think they might go straight to their alternates list, which takes the top swimmers in all events by % under the B-Cut.


Thats how I understand it. Theres some strategy there to make sure you dont open a spot for Kenyon rather than a lone wolf from somewhere else.
polarbear
Moderator
 
Posts: 994
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:42 pm

Next

Return to National Championships

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest