Men's NESAC

Moderators: polarbear, imJumbo

Men's NESAC

Postby purpleandwhite » Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:53 pm

The dual meet season is over and team's are putting together their championship rosters and will soon start moving into the championship phase of training.
A few thoughts at this point of the season for the top teams.

1) Tufts has more depth than Williams.....true or false?

I'm going with false. Bigger team roster advantage for Tufts but not sure that it results in more points scored from 19 through 24. In fact, a quick once over suggests that Williams will out score Tufts from the lower roster slots.

2) Tufts has more higher talent than Williams....true or false?
I'm going with false if we define that as A finalists. I believe Williams will have more A finalists than Tufts.

3) Williams should beat Tufts because it has more top end and bottom end talent.....true or false?
How about depends. Tufts has stronger sprint corp than Williams and that translates potentially into more relay points. Perhaps the difference maker this year.

4) Williams best chance to beat Tufts relies upon the success of the Amherst relays....true or false?

I believe that is true. If Amherst should beat Tufts in the sprint relays (200/400 in free/medley) than I believe Williams wins the meet. If Tufts should win all but the 800 free relay then Tufts should win.

5) That means Eph fans should be rooting for an Amherst relay sweep in all but the 800 free relay....true or false?
I believe this to be true but suspect it's a hard one for our friends over the hill to buy.

6) The big three will score more points collectively than last year...true or false?
I believe this is true. The fall of the Conn college team will benefit the big three the most.


More to come as we get closer
purpleandwhite
 
Posts: 549
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:29 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby Borg » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:33 am

Like last year, it appears Tufts tapered (on-the-bubble for NESCACs ?) swimmers who competed at this weekend's Boston Winter Open and Tufts' depth/quality were once again on display.
Most notable
Devon French (Frosh) ......100 fly....50.3 (3-4 sec drop with taper), 50 Fly 22.9 (B finals times at NESCACs)
Ethan Webster (Frosh).....200 back....1:50.07 (9 sec drop with taper), 100 back ....51.33 (A finals times at NESCAC)
Gerald Wood....50 free ....21.29 , 200 free....1:42.48 (B finals times at NESCACs)
....another half dozen swimmers who swam B/C NESCAC finals times in various events

B finals points appear to be Tufts floor for their top 23 swimmers (1 diver) at NESCACs once again.
Borg
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2015 3:39 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby RetiredJet » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:43 am

Borg wrote:Like last year, it appears Tufts tapered (on-the-bubble for NESCACs ?) swimmers who competed at this weekend's Boston Winter Open and Tufts' depth/quality were once again on display.
Most notable
Devon French (Frosh) ......100 fly....50.3 (3-4 sec drop with taper), 50 Fly 22.9 (B finals times at NESCACs)
Ethan Webster (Frosh).....200 back....1:50.07 (9 sec drop with taper), 100 back ....51.33 (A finals times at NESCAC)
Gerald Wood....50 free ....21.29 , 200 free....1:42.48 (B finals times at NESCACs)
....another half dozen swimmers who swam B/C NESCAC finals times in various events

B finals points appear to be Tufts floor for their top 23 swimmers (1 diver) at NESCACs once again.


Devon French also went a 1:52.31 in his 200 fly which was an A final last year and his 100 would've been an A final had he gone that in prelims. As you mention Borg there is a lot of depth. In past years they seem to bring 2 people off this team to NESCACs and when looking you have all the guys you listed above plus Trevor Serman who was 51.47/1:51.41 fly (which is a A final) so you have 4 guys and all of them who have A/B swims which means you're going to be leaving at least 2 kids home who could score pretty well.

Also to address some of those points from purpleandwhite.
1) Williams and Tufts are about even on depth in my opinion. Williams is really strong in the distance events no doubt but Tufts has a surprising amount of depth. Look at the 200 back for Bowen(146), Mitchell (149), Kim (148), Doyle (151), Webster (150) and Tingen (153 LTB from HS and if he swims well I think he could be sub 150). That's at least 4 guys who would have made A final last year. I think it just depends on what event you are talking about for depth which is why I would say they are roughly even. Plus we never know what freshman are going to do, if one team has kids drop crazy times (like Tufts freshman last year) the class (or team) can go from solid to really good.
2)As for relays I agree Williams needs to hope for Tufts loses but I really don't think Amherst will win 200/400 free and medley. 400 Free relay Tufts returns 2 legs (Bowen, Gu) and has a freshman (Vollbrechthausen) who is faster than either of the legs they lost last year, while Amherst did pick up Romeyn I don't think he can make up the 4 seconds (259 vs 303).
3)I do agree that the big 3 score more points. The fall of Conn definitely contributes to this but overall but if Bowdoin swims well and Conn swims better than projected it could be not as dramatic of a difference as last year.

Women's meet starts in a few days going to very exciting to get into championship season.
RetiredJet
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:19 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby polarbear » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:25 pm

Polar Bear has returned from honeymoon in Africa (followed by an exciting trip to Cedar Rapids -- always lovely in February). Expect some commenting over the next few days . . . .

But for now -- while I agree generally with the above, be careful re backstroke. The 100 was epicly slow last year and there are a ton of good freshmen faster than top 8 times from last year, off the top of my head LeClerc and Whitcomb (Williams), Yang and Mebust (Bowdoin), Tingen (Tufts). What was interesting to me was the BR guys that Tufts rested for here. That appeared to be their weak event, and having a 58.1 / 2:09 off the NESCAC team means they think they have enough depth if that event is weak this year.
polarbear
Moderator
 
Posts: 992
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:42 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby RetiredJet » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:07 pm

polarbear wrote:Polar Bear has returned from honeymoon in Africa (followed by an exciting trip to Cedar Rapids -- always lovely in February). Expect some commenting over the next few days . . . .

But for now -- while I agree generally with the above, be careful re backstroke. The 100 was epicly slow last year and there are a ton of good freshmen faster than top 8 times from last year, off the top of my head LeClerc and Whitcomb (Williams), Yang and Mebust (Bowdoin), Tingen (Tufts). What was interesting to me was the BR guys that Tufts rested for here. That appeared to be their weak event, and having a 58.1 / 2:09 off the NESCAC team means they think they have enough depth if that event is weak this year.


Yeah backstroke was not super strong last year but I was more making the point that Tufts is deep in some events (like backstroke) but not as deep in the breaststroke events. Yes you are right there are at least 6 freshman who are all solid backstrokes, we will have to see how they all perform once we get to NESCACs
RetiredJet
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:19 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby purpleandwhite » Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:16 pm

My top three picks for NESCAC

800 free relay
1) Williams
2) Amherst
3) Tufts

200 free relay
1) Tufts
2) Amherst
3) Williams

50 Breast
1) Melnick Williams
2) Mebust Amherst
3) Chen Amherst

50 Fly
1) Koravos, Amherst
2) Hart, Williams
3) Royek, Williams


500 Free
1) Lovette Williams
2) Trunsky Williams
3) Wong Amherst

50 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Li, Amherst
3) Smith, Amherst

200 IM
1) Sarier, Bodwoin
2) Tan, Williams
3) Kim, Tufts

50 Free
1) Gu, Tufts
2) Romeyn , Amherst
3) So, Amherst

1 Meter Dive
1) Amsbry, Amherst
2) Ryan, Bowdoin
3) Fagan, Amherst

400 MR
1) Amherst
2) Tufts
3) Williams

Team Scores After Day 0/1: 1) Tufts 2) Amherst 3) Williams

200 MR
1) Tufts
2) Amherst
3) Williams

1000 Free
1) Karofsky, Williams
2) Williams, Bowdoin
3) Komishane, Bowdoin

400 IM
1) Kim, Tufts
2) Karofsky, Williams
3) Gregorace, Tufts

100 Fly
1) Koravaos, Amherst
2) Turner, Tufts
3) Pearcy, Williams

200 Free
1) Sarier, Bowdoin
2) Lovette, Williams
3) Seltzer, Amherst

100 Breast
1) Mebust , Amherst
2) Chen, Amherst
3) Bedard, Bates

100 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Smith, Amherst
3) Li, Amherst

Scores after Day 2/Sat: 1) Tufts, 2)Williams and 3)Amherst

1650 Free
1) Lovette, Williams
2) Karofsky, Williams
3) Williams, Bowdoin

200 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Smith, Amherst
3) Kim, Tufts

100 Free
1) Gu, Tufts
2) Romeyn, Amherst
3) Sarier, Bowdoin

200 Breast
1) Mebust, Amherst
2) Burnham, Tufts
3) Chen, Amherst

200 Fly
1) Delcompare, Williams
2) Tan, Williams
3) Pearcy, Williams

3M Diving
1) Ryan, Bowdoin
2) Fagan, Amherst
3) Amsbry, Amherst

400 Free Relay
1) Amherst
2) Tufts
3) Williams

Final scores: 1) Williams 2) Tufts 3) Amherst
purpleandwhite
 
Posts: 549
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:29 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby polarbear » Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:27 pm

purpleandwhite wrote:My top three picks for NESCAC

800 free relay
1) Williams
2) Amherst
3) Tufts

200 free relay
1) Tufts
2) Amherst
3) Williams

50 Breast
1) Melnick Williams
2) Mebust Amherst
3) Chen Amherst

50 Fly
1) Koravos, Amherst
2) Hart, Williams
3) Royek, Williams


500 Free
1) Lovette Williams
2) Trunsky Williams
3) Wong Amherst

50 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Li, Amherst
3) Smith, Amherst

200 IM
1) Sarier, Bodwoin
2) Tan, Williams
3) Kim, Tufts

50 Free
1) Gu, Tufts
2) Romeyn , Amherst
3) So, Amherst

1 Meter Dive
1) Amsbry, Amherst
2) Ryan, Bowdoin
3) Fagan, Amherst

400 MR
1) Amherst
2) Tufts
3) Williams

Team Scores After Day 0/1: 1) Tufts 2) Amherst 3) Williams

200 MR
1) Tufts
2) Amherst
3) Williams

1000 Free
1) Karofsky, Williams
2) Williams, Bowdoin
3) Komishane, Bowdoin

400 IM
1) Kim, Tufts
2) Karofsky, Williams
3) Gregorace, Tufts

100 Fly
1) Koravaos, Amherst
2) Turner, Tufts
3) Pearcy, Williams

200 Free
1) Sarier, Bowdoin
2) Lovette, Williams
3) Seltzer, Amherst

100 Breast
1) Mebust , Amherst
2) Chen, Amherst
3) Bedard, Bates

100 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Smith, Amherst
3) Li, Amherst

Scores after Day 2/Sat: 1) Tufts, 2)Williams and 3)Amherst

1650 Free
1) Lovette, Williams
2) Karofsky, Williams
3) Williams, Bowdoin

200 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Smith, Amherst
3) Kim, Tufts

100 Free
1) Gu, Tufts
2) Romeyn, Amherst
3) Sarier, Bowdoin

200 Breast
1) Mebust, Amherst
2) Burnham, Tufts
3) Chen, Amherst

200 Fly
1) Delcompare, Williams
2) Tan, Williams
3) Pearcy, Williams

3M Diving
1) Ryan, Bowdoin
2) Fagan, Amherst
3) Amsbry, Amherst

400 Free Relay
1) Amherst
2) Tufts
3) Williams

Final scores: 1) Williams 2) Tufts 3) Amherst


At first glance it seems a little A-W-T focused. On second glance I can't really come out and say I disagree with any of them -- maybe those three really do have that much of a strangle on the top talent this year???

Does anyone see those three teams not being the top three in any of the relays? Maybe Conn or Bowdoin can sneak in one, but seems like it would be an upset. And certainly not on the B relays.

I do think Conn will sneak some stuff in there, they always do. Adl, Nussbaum, Hunter, Merrill. And Bedell in the distance events for Colby. Maybe Bedard in the BR. Ask me in a week.
polarbear
Moderator
 
Posts: 992
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:42 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby purpleandwhite » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:32 pm

I wondered about whether someone other than the big 3 could sneak into a top 3 in relays. Last year two teams did....Conn in the 200 free as the championships and Bates in the 400 free. Unless Williams, Tufts or Amherst seriously miss a taper it's hard to imagine another non-Big 3 team breaking into the top three in relay finishes. Conn doesn't have the sprinting power given pretty much 75 percent of that relay is gone and not replaced. 3:03 is not going to cut it to make top 3 this year given the depth in 100 free by Tufts, Williams and Amherst. All three should be close to 3:00 and 3:01 on the last day.

Different story for individual events. Swimming is an event with lots of surprises and plenty of the NESCAC schools have the talent both in the pool and on deck to bring out extraordinary and unexpected performance. If you have a lane in the A final then you have a chance.
purpleandwhite
 
Posts: 549
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:29 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby nescac123 » Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:54 pm

polarbear wrote:
purpleandwhite wrote:My top three picks for NESCAC

800 free relay
1) Williams
2) Amherst
3) Tufts

200 free relay
1) Tufts
2) Amherst
3) Williams

50 Breast
1) Melnick Williams
2) Mebust Amherst
3) Chen Amherst

50 Fly
1) Koravos, Amherst
2) Hart, Williams
3) Royek, Williams


500 Free
1) Lovette Williams
2) Trunsky Williams
3) Wong Amherst

50 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Li, Amherst
3) Smith, Amherst

200 IM
1) Sarier, Bodwoin
2) Tan, Williams
3) Kim, Tufts

50 Free
1) Gu, Tufts
2) Romeyn , Amherst
3) So, Amherst

1 Meter Dive
1) Amsbry, Amherst
2) Ryan, Bowdoin
3) Fagan, Amherst

400 MR
1) Amherst
2) Tufts
3) Williams

Team Scores After Day 0/1: 1) Tufts 2) Amherst 3) Williams

200 MR
1) Tufts
2) Amherst
3) Williams

1000 Free
1) Karofsky, Williams
2) Williams, Bowdoin
3) Komishane, Bowdoin

400 IM
1) Kim, Tufts
2) Karofsky, Williams
3) Gregorace, Tufts

100 Fly
1) Koravaos, Amherst
2) Turner, Tufts
3) Pearcy, Williams

200 Free
1) Sarier, Bowdoin
2) Lovette, Williams
3) Seltzer, Amherst

100 Breast
1) Mebust , Amherst
2) Chen, Amherst
3) Bedard, Bates

100 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Smith, Amherst
3) Li, Amherst

Scores after Day 2/Sat: 1) Tufts, 2)Williams and 3)Amherst

1650 Free
1) Lovette, Williams
2) Karofsky, Williams
3) Williams, Bowdoin

200 Back
1) Bowen, Tufts
2) Smith, Amherst
3) Kim, Tufts

100 Free
1) Gu, Tufts
2) Romeyn, Amherst
3) Sarier, Bowdoin

200 Breast
1) Mebust, Amherst
2) Burnham, Tufts
3) Chen, Amherst

200 Fly
1) Delcompare, Williams
2) Tan, Williams
3) Pearcy, Williams

3M Diving
1) Ryan, Bowdoin
2) Fagan, Amherst
3) Amsbry, Amherst

400 Free Relay
1) Amherst
2) Tufts
3) Williams

Final scores: 1) Williams 2) Tufts 3) Amherst


At first glance it seems a little A-W-T focused. On second glance I can't really come out and say I disagree with any of them -- maybe those three really do have that much of a strangle on the top talent this year???

Does anyone see those three teams not being the top three in any of the relays? Maybe Conn or Bowdoin can sneak in one, but seems like it would be an upset. And certainly not on the B relays.

I do think Conn will sneak some stuff in there, they always do. Adl, Nussbaum, Hunter, Merrill. And Bedell in the distance events for Colby. Maybe Bedard in the BR. Ask me in a week.



I see these predictions as pretty safe so I will speculate on some of the lower chances at top 3.

Julian Abaldo: 50 Free 50 Fly
Justin Yang: 200 Back
Charlie Adl: 200 Free
Jared Nussbaum: 1000 Free
Tanner Fuller: 200 Free
Ryan Beddell: 500 / 1000 / 1650 Free
Carter Garfield: 100 Breast
Will Pannos: 100 Fly
Radojica Pavlovic: 50 Free 50 Fly
nescac123
 
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:55 am

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby EphsOnTop » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:16 pm

Quick thoughts on those predictions are that Karofsky will likely be top 3 in the 500. He’s the fastest returning in the NESCAC after going 4:27 at NCAAs. Trunsky as the 2 time defending champion should probably be the favorite in the 1000 and Karofsky will probably stick with just the 400 IM. I would also replace Williams from Bowdoin with Trunsky.

I also think the 400 free relay is going to be one of the fastest races in a while with both Williams and Amherst fairly close to their last years times already. Plus Tufts returning a fairly full strength group.

[ Post made via iPhone ]
EphsOnTop
 
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:18 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby polarbear » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:46 pm

Nick Wilkins? Ted Mebust in 50bk? Kevin Santoro 200bk?
polarbear
Moderator
 
Posts: 992
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:42 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby Borg » Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:21 am

nescac123 wrote:Charlie Adl: 200 Free
Radojica Pavlovic: 50 Free 50 Fly

Two names that I have on my watch list as well.

I'm going to add John Connors from Colby to this list though I think he is a year away.
Colby's Ryan Bedell has been swimming faster this season so I'm curious if he has bridged the gap with the Williams distance swimmers.

Very excited to watch Sarier at NESCACs and NCAAs. Missing out on the top of the podium in the 200 free at NCAAs by 0.02 secs has to be motivating. As always, I'm interested to see if he adjusts his race strategy and opens his races faster vs his patented late charges.

Most excited for the relays and hope to see Gu matched against Romeyn every night
Last edited by Borg on Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Borg
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2015 3:39 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby imJumbo » Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:36 pm

Psych sheets are up on meetmoble, but nothing earth shattering there. (read: everyone you would expect to be in multiple events are entered in those multiple events). Some of my questions are:

Does the Williams Distance crew dominate again this year? Last year was a spectacular performance by their big 3. This year it seems like there is a resurgent Wong, a really strong duo from Bowdoin, and Lalime from Tufts all in the mix with them. Can they hold onto the stranglehold they had on the 500-1650?

How does Amherst taper? Last year felt like an off year on their overall taper. This year, looking through their roster, they appear strong in practically every event. Their sprint-mid D and breast crews in particular look dangerous. If that freestyle crew hits right, it could make some trouble for the other teams plans in stacking certain finals events.

Does the Tufts backstroke crew dominate? They have the top 4 seeds in the 200 back (yes, 3 are from the MIT meet which I think we have put to rest that they can taper off of those times, and 1 from the BU which was a full taper) and 6 of the top 14. Presumably all of those guys swim that event. There are some other spectacular backstrokers in the conference, but this could be a major event coup for Tufts.

Which team surprises the most? Conn has lost a lot of depth and speed, but they bring in some fantastic swimmers and they seem to always hit their taper so well. Does Bowdoin keep 4th again? Or does Bates challenge? The Wesleyan women have been resurgent in recent years, are the men about to follow their path to success?

Can another team breakthrough in the relays? The top 3 predictions above, while hard to call "correct," have a flavor of what feels close to what we could see. But the relays are another question. Last year 4 teams won the relays (Conn, Amherst, Williams, Tufts x2). This year feels more weighted to the big 3, but can someone come up again and surprise for a top podium spot?

Overall, I think the meet will be really exciting, especially the team battles. Williams and Tufts are the favorites, but I wouldn't count out Amherst for keeping it close through a lot of the meet. I would think it would be a bit of an upset if they win, but I'm not counting it out.

As usual, it comes down to how many ups and how low is the floor for each team. (Obviously) I know Tufts best, and it's interesting who they have on their team and who they left home. One of the guys not making the meet has a B-cut/A final speed in a single event, but didn't have all 3 high scoring events to warrant a NESCAC trip. Another guy was a B/C/C swimmer who also didn't make the team. Each of the teams have their big guns and they should make their presence known. It's the 7-10 and 15-18 places where this will be won or lost.

I'm not going to make event or team predictions, since I know some current swimmers read this, but my final question is who takes the SoM award. Easy choices are Gu, Bowen, Lovette, or Sarier. Or is there someone else who could surprise and win multiple events and take the award. Looking forward to the weekend.
imJumbo
Moderator
 
Posts: 518
Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2011 9:14 am

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby Borg » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:18 am

!6 divers in each event

4-Bowdoin
3-Amherst
3-Colby
2-Bates
2-Wesleyan
1-Trinity
1-Middlebury

0-Tufts........2 divers scored 85 pts in '18....Tufts won meet by 80 pts (how many pts will swimmers 23+24 score?)
0-Williams
0-Conn
0-Hamilton
Borg
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2015 3:39 pm

Re: Men's NESAC

Postby RetiredJet » Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:38 am

Borg wrote:!6 divers in each event

4-Bowdoin
3-Amherst
3-Colby
2-Bates
2-Wesleyan
1-Trinity
1-Middlebury

0-Tufts........2 divers scored 85 pts in '18....Tufts won meet by 80 pts (how many pts will swimmers 23+24 score?)
0-Williams
0-Conn
0-Hamilton


Looking at the Tufts roster they only have 1 diver listed and parsing through results from this year he only seemed to be competing on 1M so it's possible he's hurt and can't do 3M? Either way it will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out. Amherst has some of the best divers in the NESCAC right now and this could be a huge boost for them.

Also just on some people's predictions above one major error (at least in my view) is not having LaLime in the top 3 for either the 1000 or 1650. Last year he was top 3 in both so I would give him the benefit of the doubt.

Finally as it relates to relays it will be interesting to see what lineups teams use. Do Amherst/Williams/Tufts go for max # of people at NCAA or do they try and go with their fastest lineups? Amherst could put Chen/Quinones on leg instead of Mebust, Williams could pull Zeb Hart off a fly leg to allow someone like Lee to make the meet and similarly Tufts could put Tingen on a backstroke leg (and have Bowen move to fly). I think that will be as interesting to see what teams opt to do in this situation.
RetiredJet
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:19 pm

Next

Return to New England Small College Athletic Conference

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests