Women's NESCACs

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Women's NESCACs

Postby RetiredJet » Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:44 am

With teams done racing for the season (except for Tufts at the BU invite this weekend) championships is right around the corner. Wanted to kick off the discussion here with my predictions:
1. Williams - Don't see how anyone beats them this year. Laura Westphal is the best swimmer on their team but I wonder how much she will come down for this meet as I think Williams can qualify relays even if she isn't fully tapered.
2. Amherst- I think they will be fighting to keep Tufts from jumping over them. They do have a lot of front end speed but I think they have a little more depth from 18-24 versus Tufts and that tends to be the difference at this meet.
3. Tufts- Very young team here. They have a lot of really good freshman/sophomores and I expect the bulk of their points to come from those classes. Tufts hasn't sent a women's relay to NCAA in over 5 years but at MIT invite they had multiple relays swim under the invite time from last year, could this be the year we see them return to the national stage?
4. Bowdoin- I think they have enough pieces in place to jump over Conn this year. The biggest issue I see them running into is relays. Most of their relays had multiple seniors (Patterson and Rawding) I’m not sure that Dixon/Laurita can make up for those losses. I think they still have enough swimmers to get a relay qualified for nationals but it will be very close.
5. Conn- The loss of Erb and Gribbel really hurts this team (especially on their medley relays). While they have some really solid swimmers (Ford, Haskell, Wilber..) I'm not sure they can do anything about Tufts/Bowdoin jumping over them in the standings. Last year they beat Tufts by ~40 and Bowdoin by 60 not sure with their losses they can stay ahead. Have to mention it but no divers and in a conference where divers always score this hurts (Tufts has 4 on their roster and Bowdoin has 3).
6.Bates- Not sure that Bates has the top end speed to get past Conn. Much like Conn they lose two of their best swimmers from last year (Hope Logan and Logan McGill) but adding swimmers like Caroline Sweeney and Maya Reynoso-Williams help lessen the blow a little bit. They have some solid swimmers who should make A final but the depth is not what it has been in years past. They also have no divers this year too.
7.Wesleyan- After an NCAA appearance in the 400 free relay I think they have some momentum to jump over Midd. Caroline Murphy is the anchor on the team but they do return 3 of the legs from the relay so I expect them to keep making moves. Another bright spot for them is the fact that they have 4 divers on their roster and those are just guaranteed points which could be a huge boost for them.
8.Midd-Outside of Vandermeer I’m not sure Midd has anyone they can rely on. Maya Gomez isn’t listed on their roster and she would’ve been the other potential big scorer. Looking at current times in NESCAC they have 1-2 people top 16 in any event so they will need to dig deep to try and score points at NESCACs.
9.Colby-I’m going to give them the edge over Hamilton because their sprinting is better in my mind and with no prelim relays they should score some points over Hamilton there. Addie Page is a solid freshman and I think she could be a big contributor for the Mules. I think they will be fighting to make C finals but with the new pool coming and increasingly solid freshman coming in I think they could make some moves in a few years.
10.Trinity-One of the bright starts for Trinity last year was McStocker, unfortunately she is not listed on their roster this year. They do have some really good freshman like Natlashweski (4:29 400IM best) and Serena Ly (1:06 1 breast) but they are always wildcard. There are a handful of other point scoring returns but not many hopefully the freshman can help carry some of the relays.
11.Hamilton-I think it will take a few years before we see them move within the NESCAC (give some time to a new coach to see if he can build anything there). They do return some scorers from last year (Sadie Logan being the standout) pair that with some solid freshman they could start to see some upward mobility.
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby TTCoach » Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:01 pm

RetiredJet. It seems helpful to repost these comments from an earlier thread as well as add few new ones.

---
It seems that the EphWomen are the runaway favorites again for the team title, as has been the case for a while.... however, my sense is they may not "as dominant" as they have been and there are fewer "sure favorites" than in the the past. The relays will be battles.... I havent seen any FY or returning swimmers come close to making up for the loss of Emma Waddell in the sprints. Also, those individual races held down by Waddell the past few years look up for grabs (sprint fly and free).

It looks like FY Abby Matheny is continuing to improve in the 200 back and middle distance free events and will be one to watch. Same for FY Anna Peterson in the 100 Fly. FY Georgia Panitz may be able to provide strong sprint support too. Caroline Conforti is swimming again and had a promising back race this weekend against Midd. Veronica Wolff and Gwen Maloy are looking stronger of late after some tough early season racing. Gabriella Mercier is seems to be placing higher this year in the dives.

There are several swimmers from other programs who have thrown down some impressive swims and look to be stronger than last year should challenge for the titles or higher podium places [Sterling Dixon, Mary Laurita (Bow), Natalie Rumpelt, Lily Fitzgerald & FY Hannah Spencer (Amherst), Maddie Ford & Olivia Haskell (Conn), Abby Claus, Mary Hufziger, Mary Socha (transfer fr Kenyon), Sasha Fong, Sook He Evans (Tufts)] .
------

Random New Thoughts:
---Conn swam Williams closer than I expected. Think they are better than expected.
---Colby will be moving up and would not be surprised to see them pass Midd.
---Middlebury appears to have lost Gomez who was the NESCACs fastest sprint breastroker at NESCACs last year.. that will hurt. They seem to have several swimmers ready to fill that BR spot, but dont see them quite as fast as Gomez yet.
----Maddie Ford of Conn, Natalie Rumpelt & and Lily Fitzgerald of Amherst are my vote for "breakout" swimmers that can take a first individual NESCAC title. Ford has great finishing speed like Westphal. If Ford and Rumpelt are in the 200 free with Laura Westphal (especially if LW is untapered), that will be an awesome race to watch (I can see Abby Matheny mixing it up in that race too).
---The 200 Fly seems like about 5 girls could win it. Craig has a B cut in the 2Fly, and a time in the 4IM that will surely be invited, so I doubt she will be tapered for NESCACs. She moved up from 3 in the NESCACs to 5 or 6th at Nat Champs, so there is no sure thing for her to dominate that event.
---Sterling Dixon has the best 2IM time and appears to be swimming very well. Watching her, Kwong, Craig, Veronica Wolff (Caroline White?) race the 2IM will be fun.
---Williams depth at distance free has been noted before... any challengers there??
---FY of the year swimmer nominations: ???
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby imJumbo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:36 pm

Psych sheet is (sort of) available in the live results section on the nescac site. Just glancing through it, Williams looks poised to run away with this one. I don't see there being a big charge against them from anyone. Tufts looks strong on their seed times, though some are from last weekends BU meet where looks like 3 swimmers possibly tapered. Either way, based on the drops that those swimmers had from even their MIT times seems likely to see some decent drops there across the team. Amherst also looks good, I just worry about their depth to keep up a bit. The Maine schools also look strong. Unlike the mens meet the following week, I think there's a lot more intrigue on the team scoring for the 2-5 spot.
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby purpleandwhite » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:08 pm

Psych Sheets

https://www.nescac.com/sports/swimdive/ ... _Sheet.pdf

Coaches have not scratched down their swimmers.
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby RetiredJet » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:17 am

purpleandwhite wrote:Psych Sheets

https://www.nescac.com/sports/swimdive/ ... _Sheet.pdf

Coaches have not scratched down their swimmers.


If there is one team that always seems to score better than their seeding it’s Conn, but with that in mind I think they might be in some trouble this year. I know seeding can be misleading but if you just look at the first day here are there seeds (I know that with scratches these could all change but it still illustrates the point I want to make)
50 Breast: 16,27,35,37
50 Fly: 15, 20, 45,46
500 Free: 9, 40, 44, 55
50 Back: 3, 19, 23, 34, 35
200 IM: 28, 39, 49
50 Free: 5, 8, 11, 12, 51

Their sprint core is obviously their strength (and it's a good strength to have with relays playing such a big factor at this meet). Overall, I think there are may be some events where they are on the outside looking in. I think this gives Bowdoin, Bates and Tufts all a huge opportunity to jump over Conn.
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby polarbear » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:13 am

RetiredJet wrote:
purpleandwhite wrote:Psych Sheets

https://www.nescac.com/sports/swimdive/ ... _Sheet.pdf

Coaches have not scratched down their swimmers.


If there is one team that always seems to score better than their seeding it’s Conn, but with that in mind I think they might be in some trouble this year. I know seeding can be misleading but if you just look at the first day here are there seeds (I know that with scratches these could all change but it still illustrates the point I want to make)
50 Breast: 16,27,35,37
50 Fly: 15, 20, 45,46
500 Free: 9, 40, 44, 55
50 Back: 3, 19, 23, 34, 35
200 IM: 28, 39, 49
50 Free: 5, 8, 11, 12, 51

Their sprint core is obviously their strength (and it's a good strength to have with relays playing such a big factor at this meet). Overall, I think there are may be some events where they are on the outside looking in. I think this gives Bowdoin, Bates and Tufts all a huge opportunity to jump over Conn.


Relays are big points, but they are big points that everyone gets. And even if the stars they lost off last year's team were still with them I don't think they would be breaking into the top 2. I see them similar to last year's men's team -- some real great swimmers, will likely send some relays to NCAA's, but lack the depth to push the top teams at NESCAC's.
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby polarbear » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:50 am

Some unstructured thoughts on the eve of the meet:

- Each of the teams 2-6 appears to have some sort of weakness. Amherst in back (I believe Kwong goes on the relays for them), Bowdoin in breast, Bates in and Conn with depth. If one event is slow (think 100 back for men last year) it could open up room for one of them to move up.

- It will be interesting to see the 800 relay decisions tomorrow. Lots of guessing.

- Curious to see what happens with Bowdoin relays -- who swims BR? which relay does Dixon sit? If they have a good 800 do they switch the other relays around to try and qualify people? And spekaing of the 800, who is the 4th? I would say Dixon and Fosburgh are definites but do they use Laurita to try and definitely qualify, or Moody, or Eguchi, or Kemp, or Gearan, or Wargo. Those with the fastest lifetime bests don't necessarily have the faster times this year.

- How much will Williams rest their stars? Doesnt look like anyone has really qualified at this point so maybe less rest than usual.

- Bowdoin women struggled last year -- have they made the necessary adjustments?

- Will Tufts women be like the men were last year and perform to their seeds? There was a ton of talent there last year, can it come together this week?

- Wes relays????? Would be great to see them qualify again. Peter Solomon always seems to taper well . . . .

- Last year my most valuable swimmer was Logan McGill of Bates - not because she was the best swimmer but because her versatility in BR, FL, and FR allowed them the flexibility to qualify a bunch of relays. Who will have the "Owen Rood" effect this year (one year he was Tufts' only individual qualifier but swam so well on relays that he pulled all of them to NCAA's). I'm looking at Apathy and Ho, Dixon, potentially one of the Wes backstrokers. Maybe one of the Conn sprinters?

- While 2d to 6th could have some real battles, there appears to be a huge gap with the bottom. I see Wes in 7th and then some jumble of Trinity, Hamilton, and Colby. I do expect Colby to move up -- their women are definitely stronger this year and I expect them to start moving back to the level that had multiple NCAA qualifiers and relays in the early 2000's. It may take another year or so but I expect them to start pushing. When Burton's teams are on they are excellent -- think Mason Roberts, their relays from 3 years ago, etc. Anyways, I look forward o these teams starting to have full rosters and therefore making the bottom half of the meet more competitive.

- Will Williams go 1-4 again in the 500? Maybe not, but off the top of my head they have 5 who have been under 5:00 (Delano, Westphal, Matheny, McNamara, Maloy).
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby purpleandwhite » Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:29 pm

polarbear wrote:Some unstructured thoughts on the eve of the meet:

- Each of the teams 2-6 appears to have some sort of weakness. Amherst in back (I believe Kwong goes on the relays for them), Bowdoin in breast, Bates in and Conn with depth. If one event is slow (think 100 back for men last year) it could open up room for one of them to move up.

Yes, yes, yes, yes......

- It will be interesting to see the 800 relay decisions tomorrow. Lots of guessing.

This is an interesting topic for both men and women. Having the relay Thursday night means new thinking (and guessing) re relays. Those who are sprinters stretching up (50/100) will they be ready to move up to the 200 and those true middle distance swimmers (200/500 and perhaps beyond) are they tapered to swim fast. I think this is less tricky for the women then the men.

- Curious to see what happens with Bowdoin relays -- who swims BR? which relay does Dixon sit? If they have a good 800 do they switch the other relays around to try and qualify people? And spekaing of the 800, who is the 4th? I would say Dixon and Fosburgh are definites but do they use Laurita to try and definitely qualify, or Moody, or Eguchi, or Kemp, or Gearan, or Wargo. Those with the fastest lifetime bests don't necessarily have the faster times this year.

You know way more than I so will follow with interest.

- How much will Williams rest their stars? Doesnt look like anyone has really qualified at this point so maybe less rest than usual.

I would expect full taper and why not? Nowadays, coaches at all levels in the US know who to taper and re-taper shortly thereafter. It's pretty much standard practice in the US and why OT are always held much closer to the actual games in the US than in other countries.

- Bowdoin women struggled last year -- have they made the necessary adjustments?
I'd wager yes....I do believe Coaches and we do have some very good ones in this conference (including Brad).

- Will Tufts women be like the men were last year and perform to their seeds? There was a ton of talent there last year, can it come together this week?

See the above.

- Wes relays????? Would be great to see them qualify again. Peter Solomon always seems to taper well . . . .

See above the above.

- Last year my most valuable swimmer was Logan McGill of Bates - not because she was the best swimmer but because her versatility in BR, FL, and FR allowed them the flexibility to qualify a bunch of relays. Who will have the "Owen Rood" effect this year (one year he was Tufts' only individual qualifier but swam so well on relays that he pulled all of them to NCAA's). I'm looking at Apathy and Ho, Dixon, potentially one of the Wes backstrokers. Maybe one of the Conn sprinters?

Interesting. I suggest "fans" pick a candidate from their team. Looks like Rumpelt/Kwong are the most likely candidates for "fastest" but perhaps Ingrid Shu is potentially such a swimmer from Amherst...she's got that sprint free/breast double threat going and might be difference maker on both free and MR relays.

- While 2d to 6th could have some real battles, there appears to be a huge gap with the bottom. I see Wes in 7th and then some jumble of Trinity, Hamilton, and Colby. I do expect Colby to move up -- their women are definitely stronger this year and I expect them to start moving back to the level that had multiple NCAA qualifiers and relays in the early 2000's. It may take another year or so but I expect them to start pushing. When Burton's teams are on they are excellent -- think Mason Roberts, their relays from 3 years ago, etc. Anyways, I look forward o these teams starting to have full rosters and therefore making the bottom half of the meet more competitive.

- Will Williams go 1-4 again in the 500? Maybe not, but off the top of my head they have 5 who have been under 5:00 (Delano, Westphal, Matheny, McNamara, Maloy).


No......not that this is comment on the quality of Willliams swimmers but I see some challengers who should be able to get in the top 3/4.

Very excited to see tomorrow night's action.
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby purpleandwhite » Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:49 am

Someone familiar to us all write up in Swim Swam

https://swimswam.com/2019-nescac-confer ... s-preview/

Good luck Ladies. Swim fast and have fun
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby imJumbo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:32 am

I was wondering who wrote that up...

[ Post made via iPhone ]
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby polarbear » Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:00 am

imJumbo wrote:I was wondering who wrote that up...

[ Post made via iPhone ]


It was actually edited by SwimSwam to be a little more quantitatively negative to IMJumbo's team, don't blame the author!

Also surprisingly difficult to write -- you don't want to leave out any top seeds but its super hard to cover everyone. The intent was to be fair and unbiased, not sure I achieved that goal.

Also, was going to do a team by team writeup with strengths and weaknesses but they encouraged me not to -- said it wouldnt get read fr a DIII conference, so when the recaps come out do lots of commenting to show how much people follow the NESCAC.
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby RetiredJet » Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:54 am

Night 0 is fast approaching, since we just have the 800 tonight thought I would give my best attempt at a preview:

Williams (4/4): No doubt the favorites to win this event, the only question is how many of their relay swimmers will be shaved and tapered
Amherst (4/4): Returning all 4 of their legs from NCAA last year if everyone is fully shaved and tapered I wonder if they could push Williams. If Rumpelt and Domenig can throw down some sub 1:51 then I think they will put some pressure on Williams.
Bates (3/4): Hard for me to tell if we are going to get the Bates from NESCACs (7:43.92) or NCAA (7:33.98). I think they will be closer to their NCAA time and with Maya Reynoso-Williams added on I think we will see them push a sub 7:35 no problem
Tufts (4/4): Tufts has already been 4 seconds faster this year than they were at last years NESCAC. Mary Hufziger is their best 200 freestyler, but after her there are a lot of others who could be put on this relay (Evans, Goetcheus, Socha, Claus, Doolan, Carter) a lot of it will come down to if they hit their taper (which always seems to be the question)
Bowdoin (2/4): Sterling Dixon is anchoring this relay whatever leg she swims will give Bowdoin a big boost. Outside of Dixon, I think we will see Lowery (1:54.6 split NCAA), Fosburgh (1:53.99 LTB) and Wargo (1:55.7 LTB). A lot of this relay depends on how Dixon and Wargo swim if we see great swims they could easily move up.
Conn (4/4): I think they could surprise some people this year. Ford is already 1.5s faster in season than at NESCACs last year, Haskell is only .3 slower in season vs NESCACs and add in Vaughn Ammon who already has a best time in season I think they could put together a nice relay.
Wes (3/4): They do return their fastest 3 legs from last year but this relay is only going to go as far as Caroline Murhpy can carry them (if she doesn’t swim this relay they will far a lot further). Willa Gibbs is about the same time as Kerrich (graduating senior) so I expect them to be roughly the same time as last year.
Midd (4/4): They have 2 really solid legs. Karpowicz led off with a 1:53.8 last year and they add Audrey Hsi (LTB of 1:55.2). I think that Karpowicz will do enough for them to hold off teams below them.
Colby (4/4): While they do return all of their relay swimmers the addition of Addie Page/Hannah Griffin is huge for them. Both of them are about 3 seconds faster than Colby’s fastest split last year so I think if they can get two other legs under 2 they might push Midd.
Trinity (3/4): Even with 3 returning members of this realy I expect a lot of new faces. Last year they had no one under 2 but they have 3 freshman with LTB of sub 2 so I think that will push them past Hamilton this year.
Hamilton (2/4): Graduating two of their fastest legs will hurt Hamilton. Adding Lucy Hamann will help lessen the blow but I don’t think they will be able to stop Colby or Trinity from passing them this year.
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby polarbear » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:24 am

RetiredJet wrote:Night 0 is fast approaching, since we just have the 800 tonight thought I would give my best attempt at a preview:

Williams (4/4): No doubt the favorites to win this event, the only question is how many of their relay swimmers will be shaved and tapered
Amherst (4/4): Returning all 4 of their legs from NCAA last year if everyone is fully shaved and tapered I wonder if they could push Williams. If Rumpelt and Domenig can throw down some sub 1:51 then I think they will put some pressure on Williams.
Bates (3/4): Hard for me to tell if we are going to get the Bates from NESCACs (7:43.92) or NCAA (7:33.98). I think they will be closer to their NCAA time and with Maya Reynoso-Williams added on I think we will see them push a sub 7:35 no problem
Tufts (4/4): Tufts has already been 4 seconds faster this year than they were at last years NESCAC. Mary Hufziger is their best 200 freestyler, but after her there are a lot of others who could be put on this relay (Evans, Goetcheus, Socha, Claus, Doolan, Carter) a lot of it will come down to if they hit their taper (which always seems to be the question)
Bowdoin (2/4): Sterling Dixon is anchoring this relay whatever leg she swims will give Bowdoin a big boost. Outside of Dixon, I think we will see Lowery (1:54.6 split NCAA), Fosburgh (1:53.99 LTB) and Wargo (1:55.7 LTB). A lot of this relay depends on how Dixon and Wargo swim if we see great swims they could easily move up.
Conn (4/4): I think they could surprise some people this year. Ford is already 1.5s faster in season than at NESCACs last year, Haskell is only .3 slower in season vs NESCACs and add in Vaughn Ammon who already has a best time in season I think they could put together a nice relay.
Wes (3/4): They do return their fastest 3 legs from last year but this relay is only going to go as far as Caroline Murhpy can carry them (if she doesn’t swim this relay they will far a lot further). Willa Gibbs is about the same time as Kerrich (graduating senior) so I expect them to be roughly the same time as last year.
Midd (4/4): They have 2 really solid legs. Karpowicz led off with a 1:53.8 last year and they add Audrey Hsi (LTB of 1:55.2). I think that Karpowicz will do enough for them to hold off teams below them.
Colby (4/4): While they do return all of their relay swimmers the addition of Addie Page/Hannah Griffin is huge for them. Both of them are about 3 seconds faster than Colby’s fastest split last year so I think if they can get two other legs under 2 they might push Midd.
Trinity (3/4): Even with 3 returning members of this realy I expect a lot of new faces. Last year they had no one under 2 but they have 3 freshman with LTB of sub 2 so I think that will push them past Hamilton this year.
Hamilton (2/4): Graduating two of their fastest legs will hurt Hamilton. Adding Lucy Hamann will help lessen the blow but I don’t think they will be able to stop Colby or Trinity from passing them this year.


Sorry, what do the numbers (like 2/3) mean?
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby imJumbo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:58 am

polarbear wrote:
imJumbo wrote:I was wondering who wrote that up...

[ Post made via iPhone ]


It was actually edited by SwimSwam to be a little more quantitatively negative to IMJumbo's team, don't blame the author!

Also surprisingly difficult to write -- you don't want to leave out any top seeds but its super hard to cover everyone. The intent was to be fair and unbiased, not sure I achieved that goal.

Also, was going to do a team by team writeup with strengths and weaknesses but they encouraged me not to -- said it wouldnt get read fr a DIII conference, so when the recaps come out do lots of commenting to show how much people follow the NESCAC.


Next time, I’ll text Braden. But yea, writing stuff for them isn’t easy. Did a bit during 2012 trials with another friend and it was a ton of data stuff. Still, great job!

[ Post made via iPhone ]
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Re: Women's NESCACs

Postby polarbear » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:12 pm

imJumbo wrote:
polarbear wrote:
imJumbo wrote:I was wondering who wrote that up...

[ Post made via iPhone ]


It was actually edited by SwimSwam to be a little more quantitatively negative to IMJumbo's team, don't blame the author!

Also surprisingly difficult to write -- you don't want to leave out any top seeds but its super hard to cover everyone. The intent was to be fair and unbiased, not sure I achieved that goal.

Also, was going to do a team by team writeup with strengths and weaknesses but they encouraged me not to -- said it wouldnt get read fr a DIII conference, so when the recaps come out do lots of commenting to show how much people follow the NESCAC.


Next time, I’ll text Braden. But yea, writing stuff for them isn’t easy. Did a bit during 2012 trials with another friend and it was a ton of data stuff. Still, great job!

[ Post made via iPhone ]


Thanks, much appreciated.
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