MIAA's 2019

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MIAA's 2019

Postby Unionsteels4 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:00 am

It's about that time. Most of the big duels are out of the way and it's time to look toward the conference meet. Somebody had to start the conversation. Bold predictions (for coaches and swimmers), top events to look out for, biggest darkhorses, and who will take the crown? Lets dig in

WOMEN:
Looks like a three way battle for the championship. Hope, Albion, and Calvin all have looked good this year and all have the pieces to make some noise. Perhaps this is too much to ask for, but what if this thing gets decided on the final 2 or 3 events with all 3 teams still in it? That would be amazing. Gotta think Calvin has a slight edge here given their run of dominance, but anything can happen
Albion: Interesting to see how they taper compared to when Taber was there. Swingewood vs. Hope's Schaefer inn the 400 IM should be a battle. Eding, Moore, and Erickson will also all look to be contending
Hope: Crazy how good their strokers are. Peel and Schaefer are clearly their top girls, but Brinks, Emmert, Craig and a few others will all have something to say. Pretty deep on the top half of their scoring roster
Calvin: Gunderson, Serino, and Chao are the first names that pop out but they're just very deep, especially in freestyle. Wellman and Sonday add some muscle on the stroke as well

MEN:
Clearly a two way battle at the top. However, this could potentially turn into 3 seperate face-offs within the larger scope of the whole meet. Calvin-Albion round 3 will be fun and on paper is just as close as last years 6 point differential. Hope vs. Kzoo was a three point meet in Hope's favor last year (Let's be real, we still counted K's points) and have split their 2 meetings this season. Alma's most recent recruit class could but them within striking distance of Olivet as well
Albion: Huttenlocher, Kimbrell, the Robertson's, Ciemniecki, Wonner, Kozycki, Moran, and Buis (am I forgetting anyone?) make it hard to point to a super weak point on this team. Overall solid everywhere
Calvin: Iturbe, Fish, name a Holstege, Randall, Britton, Goins, and an absurd amount of depth on short freestyle. Definitely going to win it on the relays and the free if they take this meet. Shocker. Sidenote, the loss of Fear hurts, but the drop off from him to their 19th guy is likely only ~15-20 points.
Kzoo: Anger, Stille, Shaker, and Howrey make a quartet of guys who should be top 3 in at least 1 event. Orwin, S-M, and Roberts add some depth to this team and probably give them an edge over Hope. Could see multiple wins from Howrey this year
Hope: Dan and Dan are the obvious standouts, along with divers Williams and Simonich. Genuine question, does anyone know what the Dan's are swimming? They have been all over the place and Taber and JP have a lot of leeway here, especially with Keith.
Olivet: Wood and Erickson. That would be the end of my summary, but Dalton Miner has really come along on the boards. Nice to see
Alma: Ferrara and Will Brown. Probably another year until they are up there with Olivet but who knows
.
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby c-relay » Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:09 am

Calvin and Albion will be a insane meet again this year, looking forward to Fish swimming again is this like his 7th year??? Cant imagine why someone would come back as a redshirt senior in D3 sports. Also the fact that Albion and Calvin will come down to the last relay like last year my $$$$ is on Albion. Why? Calvin jumps the relays all day long and then ask themselves whats wrong when they get DQ at Nattys.

ALBION by #100

Again KZoo and Hope will be a great battle to watch, can't imagine it will be closer than last year but there is hope. Im not huge on scoring during championship meets but their depth will certainly help out. Taper is always a weird and fun thing that no one ever knows about. ITs almost like Hopes b-relay ghost.

Really EXCITED to see what Alma and olivet do this year they both have a couple swimmers who will be tough down the stretch and take some points from other teams.

VERY BOLD PREDICTIONs
1.Alma
2.Albion
3.Calvin
4.Kzoo
5.HOpe
6. Olivet
7. R.I.P '70's Adrian team
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby Unionsteels4 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:52 am

Bold predictions: Jay lets his hair down for 4 sessions, Taber wins the Shoe game, Jason gets tossed for yelling at someone in the stands, Albion crushes Calvin and Dan cries.

Amendment to my earlier thought, Hope is just as deep as Kzoo and coming on at the right time. Takes 3rd

Finally, Kozycki goes 47 low in 100 fly, B Holtege goes 47 low 100 back, everyone else quits swimming anything longer than a 100 cause screw that
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby tidepod » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:42 pm

Can't believe leagues is already almost here. Time for all of the teams to experience their taper talks from their coaches, except for Calvin, who had theirs in December. Hope their 9th week of taper is going well, they should be awfully fast come conference. As for Kzoo, we can only hope that demolishing Alma boosted their morale. 183 - 37... Was anyone exhibitioned? Real classy move there. Speaking of Alma, they still have a team??? Also, interesting to see how Hope's freestylers will do at leagues considering many are still trying to learn the fundamentals of the stroke. You'd think Taber would be able to help them out a little. Any word on who he'll be coaching next year? Next, what do we think the over/under on the number of punched lockers will be from Albion if they don't win leagues this year? Lastly, best wishes to Olivet College. Go Comets!
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby Crash Bandicoot » Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:46 pm

Predictions:

Calvin takes 200, 400, 800 free relays easily unless they “get caught” leaving early. I say get caught because some of these officials look like they have been around since Patnott was in diapers. Let’s all use our eyeballs please. Calvin also takes the 200 or 400 medley depending on which one they stack, and Albion takes the other.

Some things I would like to see…

1. Iturbe in the mile. He was 16:34 in the mid season invite last year. He could have taken his cake and finished it while everyone else finishes the race for 2nd. Instead he took 5th in the 400 IM last year. Kid has an awesome stroke and I would like to see what he can do after a 10 week taper. This event has gotten significantly slower in general. Here’s a little “10 Year Challenge” of the mile.

Shade HOPE 2009 - 16:02
Grabijas HOPE 2010 - 16:01
Grabijas HOPE 2011 - 15:57
Grabijas HOPE 2012 - 15:51
Meindertsma CALVIN 2013 - 16:06
Meindertsma CALVIN 2014 - 15:58
Meindertsma CALVIN 2015 - 15:51
Meindertsma CALVIN 2016 - 15:42
Vincent CALVIN 2017 - 16:32 *From the AM session*
Howrey KZOO 2018 - 16:20

2. Hope gets an individual event winner with either Dan Keith or Dan Clyde. Besides Latin pop star sensation Jean Luc Miralda on the 3M in 2016, the last Hope swimming champion was Grabijas in the 500 & 1650 in 2012. Would love to see some Dutch boys at the top of the podium this year.

3. Some last minute “Learn how to Dive” sessions in order to have more guys for the 3M. According to collegeswimming.com, there are only 8 guys that have attempted the 3M this season. Which swimmer wants to takes their talents to the south end of the aquatic center for a chance to be 4 inches off the pool deck AND on the podium??
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby Fireball27 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:20 pm

tidepod wrote:Can't believe leagues is already almost here. Time for all of the teams to experience their taper talks from their coaches, except for Calvin, who had theirs in December. Hope their 9th week of taper is going well, they should be awfully fast come conference. As for Kzoo, we can only hope that demolishing Alma boosted their morale. 183 - 37... Was anyone exhibitioned? Real classy move there. Speaking of Alma, they still have a team??? Also, interesting to see how Hope's freestylers will do at leagues considering many are still trying to learn the fundamentals of the stroke. You'd think Taber would be able to help them out a little. Any word on who he'll be coaching next year? Next, what do we think the over/under on the number of punched lockers will be from Albion if they don't win leagues this year? Lastly, best wishes to Olivet College. Go Comets!

Hope Freestylers be swimming like
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby RollTide » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:23 pm

Crash Bandicoot wrote:2. Hope gets an individual event winner with either Dan Keith or Dan Clyde. Besides Latin pop star sensation Jean Luc Miralda on the 3M in 2016, the last Hope swimming champion was Grabijas in the 500 & 1650 in 2012. Would love to see some Dutch boys at the top of the podium this year.


If only Ryan Johnson had gone faster than 21.21

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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby BrassBowls » Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:10 pm

Calvin takes 200, 400, 800 free relays easily unless they “get caught” leaving early. I say get caught because some of these officials look like they have been around since Patnott was in diapers. Let’s all use our eyeballs please. Calvin also takes the 200 or 400 medley depending on which one they stack, and Albion takes the other.


That assumes that Calvin doesn't put B. Holstege on both medleys, which they almost assuredly will, as they don't need him to win the 200 free. Hell, Britton and N. Holstege could probably alternate legs and win it 2-man; throwing in Jake for Ben won't make a difference (unless he repeats last year's implosion). Ben and Noah are too strong in the 50's for Kozycki and Kimbrell to make up the distance in the 2 medley and Ben beats poor Moran by way too much for them to catch up in the 4 medley. Calvin sweeps the relays, Albion maybe makes 'em sweat during the fly/breast phases in the 400 medley but Iturbe/Fish (whichever) brings it home.

Predictions:
B. Holstege: 47.3 100 back, 21.87 50 back split
Britton 20.15 and N. Holstege 20.49 for 1-2 in the 50 free
Julian dodges the mile for another year and wins the 200 and 500 free and a respectable top 3 performance in the 400IM
B. Holstege, Fish (50.7), N. Holstege (50.9) 1-2-3 in the 100 back

Kozyicki 47.7 in the 100 fly
Kimbrell 55.5 in the 100 breast

Dan Keith finds a win

The Holsteges collectively outscore Olivet

Someone places by default in the 3M despite (because of?) all of their routines being sick cannonballs
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby SalParadise » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:27 pm

That assumes that Calvin doesn't put B. Holstege on both medleys, which they almost assuredly will, as they don't need him to win the 200 free


I agree, especially considering that Calvin's 2 free relay is likely already going to nationals with the 1:21 from mid season. Also, for the record, I'd enjoy seeing Fish do the breast for Calvin on the 4 medley, and I think there's a good chance that it happens.

Would also love to see a new conference record in the 800 free to start things off on Wednesday night.

Really excited to see the 200 free final, hopefully there's a great matchup between Iturbe and Keith, who both have been looking good this January (1:43.5 a couple weekends ago for Iturbe and 1:42.4 a couple weekends ago for Keith). Good to see Keith doing better than he was this fall.

I'm excited that Hope will make this conference meet a little less of a glorified Calvin - Albion dual meet.

As far as final scores go, I'd guess that the 1-2-3 for both men and women will go Calvin-Albion-Hope.
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby c-relay » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:19 pm

First
There are some strong Biases on some of these posts^^^^
Second:
There are more swimmers that are fast in this league besides Calvin's, Daniel Kieth could easily disrupt the supposed 1-2-3 in the 100 back.

Last:
I think that the relays will be close along with the 100 back, especially with Albion. It just might be a hunch but ALbion will have a better taper than Calvin mostly because they haven't been tapering for 3 months.


Hope and Kzoo by #100
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby Unionsteels4 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:59 pm

While I don't know about a 9 week taper, recency bias leads me to caution when predicting big times drops from Calvin's top swimmers (aside from Vincent). Lets remember how 2 years ago turned out when it was supposed to be a "close meet" and people were being laughed at for predicting Albion to win by anything more than 20 (hint: they won by over 200). Then last year, the Britts were supposed to get mopped, and almost pulled it off again. Calvin definitely looks like the favorite if you look at midseason times, but I think Albion pulls at least one of the relays. While Calvin will look strong in the sprint and back, Albion counters with the IM's and Breast.
As for Iturbe, why not swim him in the mile where he could probably win with ease..? Racing a deep group of IMers and then trying to beat Hope's Keith is a big ask. Winner of the 2 Free will probably have to be 137.5 or faster this year.

Speaking of IM, look who could be in this
2IM: Howrey, Huttenlocher, and Clyde return, with the possibility of Keith and B. Holstege and the addition of C. Robertson (153.5 in highschool).
4Im: Howrey, Huttenlocher, Clyde, Iturbe, and the entrance of C. Robertson (Any other surprises?)
This is the fastest group of IMers this conference has had at one time. Also by far the most interesting cause any one of 4 schools could pull out the dub. Anyone down for winner take all?
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby Not a Dr. » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:11 am

Unionsteels4 wrote:While I don't know about a 9 week taper, recency bias leads me to caution when predicting big times drops from Calvin's top swimmers (aside from Vincent). Lets remember how 2 years ago turned out when it was supposed to be a "close meet" and people were being laughed at for predicting Albion to win by anything more than 20 (hint: they won by over 200). Then last year, the Britts were supposed to get mopped, and almost pulled it off again. Calvin definitely looks like the favorite if you look at midseason times, but I think Albion pulls at least one of the relays. While Calvin will look strong in the sprint and back, Albion counters with the IM's and Breast.
As for Iturbe, why not swim him in the mile where he could probably win with ease..? Racing a deep group of IMers and then trying to beat Hope's Keith is a big ask. Winner of the 2 Free will probably have to be 137.5 or faster this year.

Speaking of IM, look who could be in this
2IM: Howrey, Huttenlocher, and Clyde return, with the possibility of Keith and B. Holstege and the addition of C. Robertson (153.5 in highschool).
4Im: Howrey, Huttenlocher, Clyde, Iturbe, and the entrance of C. Robertson (Any other surprises?)
This is the fastest group of IMers this conference has had at one time. Also by far the most interesting cause any one of 4 schools could pull out the dub. Anyone down for winner take all?


New Meet format. Only 4 events swum. Each team puts up 1 person in each. They are the 100 IM, 200 IM, 400 IM, and newly added 800 IM.

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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby Eurus » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:11 pm

c-relay wrote:First
There are some strong Biases on some of these posts^^^^
Second:
There are more swimmers that are fast in this league besides Calvin's, Daniel Kieth could easily disrupt the supposed 1-2-3 in the 100 back.

Last:
I think that the relays will be close along with the 100 back, especially with Albion. It just might be a hunch but ALbion will have a better taper than Calvin mostly because they haven't been tapering for 3 months.


Hope and Kzoo by #100


Well of course there's bias, that's what this forum is about.

Of course there are more fast swimmers than just the knights, we are just using our brains and assuming that Keith, who is an excellent athlete but belongs to a team that has no ability to contest for the championship, will swim events he wants to swim (and can win) instead of playing in bHolstege's bubbles.

In the 100bk 3-8 should be interesting (Fish always seems to be forgotten, but he is a solid choice for #2). Also Albion will definitely be faster than Calvin relative to invite time drops, seeing as calvin actually tapers for invite, but even if calvin just swims their invite times again they are lookin pretty good, both from an individual and relay perspective.

As to comparisons with past conferences, one thing really stands out to me - over the last 3 conferences we have had the champ go calvin-albion-calvin, with the first two being by wide margins, and the last being veryveryvery close. if we check in with the albion/calvin duel meet, we see that albion won in the 2018 and 2017 seasons, but lost in the 2016 season at their pool... just like this year. if you want to talk about albion having advantages, they had them at that meet - julian swam a chopped line-up due to an injury, calvin had JUST lost fear, and albion got some thicc points from an uncontested diving well, which is worth relatively more at a duel than a championship. And yet the brits lost. their champs were turned to mince meat- holstege took the 100fly handily and made the "most versatile swimmer in the conference" huttenlocher look pretty unintimidating in two events, olberding beat kozycki in the 200fly, the 200medley was a slaughter and the calvin B 400fr almost beat the albion A 400fr.

so maybe its not so much a bias as the reality? calvin's shown their cards, and they have a sexy hand. albion's playing close to the chest but i'm kind of getting the vibe that they are bluffing. really the main difference isnt the quality of swimmers (kozycki is just as good as bholstege at his 100fly vs the 100bk) but the diversity of the top tier swimmers at calvin (if you see bholstege, fish or iturbo in an event, they are contending to win that event... not including bholstege's 500fr), while the same cant be said for kimbrell and kozycki's limited line ups.

one of the more exciting things to watch for is those darn point snatchers. with the other teams on the rise with good individual athletes, they are going to be taking some important final spots, who suffers the most from this? dont they know its a duel meet?! Feb. 20th, HAC, be there, should be fun.
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby c-relay » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:23 pm

"we are just using our brains and assuming that Keith, who is an excellent athlete but belongs to a team that has no ability to contest for the championship, will swim events he wants to swim (and can win) instead of playing in bHolstege's bubbles.


"Pride Comes before the Fall" :wink:
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Re: MIAA's 2019

Postby BrassBowls » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:45 pm

Agreed Eurus. We can talk about Calvin bias all day long but this is the same forum that tries to call huttenlocher the most versatile swimmer in the league with a straight face when B. Holstege, who swims 47, 58 (freshman year time), 49, and 44 respectively in the 4 100 strokes (IM order) exists.
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