Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

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Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby purpleandwhite » Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:50 am

As Williams returns from their training trip rested and tanned and as Amherst tries to get back into the swim of things after no organized practice during exam week that just ended last Friday, thoughts turn to the upcoming dual meet between the two longtime rivals.

The home team has had the decided edge the last few years. So question is whether the Amherst diving and sprinting advantage enough is enough to overcome the home pool advantage and stronger middle distance freestyle advantages enjoyed by Williams?
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby EphFan123 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:58 pm

purpleandwhite wrote:As Williams returns from their training trip rested and tanned and as Amherst tries to get back into the swim of things after no organized practice during exam week that just ended last Friday, thoughts turn to the upcoming dual meet between the two longtime rivals.

The home team has had the decided edge the last few years. So question is whether the Amherst diving and sprinting advantage enough is enough to overcome the home pool advantage and stronger middle distance freestyle advantages enjoyed by Williams?


I'm sure that's exactly what they do on their training trip :D

I don't see Williams winning a dual meet format that places so much value on winning events and diving. Main problem is that I think the events will swing almost exactly as they did last year, and, while the medley was close, the addition of Romeyn makes things difficult and then diving moves the score out of reach. To have a shot I think the Ephs have to win the medley and then either the 200 back, 50 free, or 100 free. All of which are tall tasks in light. The strong points for both teams remain the same.
Smith in back, Mebust breast, Amherst sprint free.
Lovette/Karofsky/Trunsky in some combo of middle distance free/back/and IM. Delcompare 200 fly + Sean Tan in that and IM. Perhaps Stanton, Maher, or Zhang can score some points in the sprint frees which have been all Amherst as of late. Alternatively a big swim from Leclerc or Whitcomb in the 200 back to beat Smith may do the trick, but Smith has been swimming lights out this year.
In any case we'll see some fast swims and good competition! Best of luck to all.

Prediction:
Medley - Amherst , WIlliams, Williams
1000 - Williams 1-3
200 back - Amherst, Williams, Williams
200 fly - Williams, Williams, Amherst?
200 IM - Williams, WIlliams, Amherst
50 free - Amherst, Amherst, Williams
100 free - Amherst, WIlliams, Amherst
200 breast - Amherst, WIlliams, Williams
Diving 1m - Amherst 1-3
Diving 3m - Amherst 1-3
500 - Williams 1-3
200 free - WIlliams, Amherst, WIlliams
4x1 free - Amherst, Williams, Amherst
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby One&Done » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:06 pm

Looking forward to this and d(eph)initely appreciate the analysis! We have been missing GoNats’ nuanced reviews this year.

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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby swimdad » Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:21 am

Happy New Year to all. Williams v Amherst will hopefully kick off an exciting 2019. All the best for all of the NESCAC swimmers!!!

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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby polarbear » Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:25 pm

Swimulator has it as a runaway for Amherst. Again, with 32 diving points to Amherst its tough to make that up. Perhaps someone like Zeb Hart can have a monster meet and win the 50 free and 100 fly, but even then it looks tough.
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby swimdad » Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:38 pm

Yes, agreed @polarbeer. Amherst wins dual meet and Williams wins NESCAC (and finishes further ahead of Amherst than they did in 2018).

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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby purpleandwhite » Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:21 pm

polarbear wrote:Swimulator has it as a runaway for Amherst. Again, with 32 diving points to Amherst its tough to make that up. Perhaps someone like Zeb Hart can have a monster meet and win the 50 free and 100 fly, but even then it looks tough.


That won't be easy because the format, unless its changed, features the 200 fly and not the 100 fly. :D
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby purpleandwhite » Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:28 pm

swimdad wrote:Yes, agreed @polarbeer. Amherst wins dual meet and Williams wins NESCAC (and finishes further ahead of Amherst than they did in 2018).

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Hmmm.....let's take it one meet at a time.

I'll grant you that @polarbeer is better than @polarbear, though.
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby swimdad » Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:57 pm

True @purpleandwhite, after the festive holiday season I thought we should change it!!!

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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby RetiredJet » Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:34 pm

This is going to be a great dual meet. I don’t know much about what either team does going into this meet (i.e. suitied, rested and whatnot) but here are some of my thoughts on each event:

Medley Relay: Amherst wins here the combo of Smith, Mebust and Romeyn is a little tough to overcome.
100 Free: Can Austin Lee push any of the Williams distance guys? Whoever Williams does put up (expect it to be 2 out of the 3 guys) I think they go 1-2.
200 Back: Leclerc has a best of 1:49.1, can he push Smith at all (think Smith will ultimately get the W)?
200 Fly: Not sure who Amherst will put up here, especially if they use Lee in the 1000. I expect Delcompare to win this event.
200 IM: With Delcompare in the Fly I think Tan has a clear path to the win. I think Sun could push him but don’t think he will win
50 Free: I expect Romeyn to win but after that it’s a toss up. If I had to guess Maher gets 2nd and Zhang nabs 3rd.
100 Free: No clear favorite in this event. I think whoever is swimming well on Saturday will get the win. Leaning towards an Amherst win though.
200 Breast: Mebust and Sun will duke it out for the top spot but I wouldn’t sleep on Morikawa seems like he is swimming better and he could pop off something fast.
Diving (both 1 & 3M): Fagan and Amsbry will duke it out on both boards
500 Free: This is a more interesting event than the 1000 Wong or Li could push for the win but ultimately I think one of the williams guys will get the W.
200 Free: I think this could be one of the best races of the day. Lovette is the favorite but Delcompare, Li, Wong and Seltzer (expect Li/Wong to split the 500/200 duties) are all close behind.
Free Relay: Toss up. I think this relay comes down to which swimmers can recover from the 200/500 as both A relays will have some of their best swimmers
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby polarbear » Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:47 am

purpleandwhite wrote:
polarbear wrote:Swimulator has it as a runaway for Amherst. Again, with 32 diving points to Amherst its tough to make that up. Perhaps someone like Zeb Hart can have a monster meet and win the 50 free and 100 fly, but even then it looks tough.


That won't be easy because the format, unless its changed, features the 200 fly and not the 100 fly. :D


Right, I forgot its 13 event rather than 16 event program.
Which makes diving even more important as there are less events to spread that loss against.
Tough one for the Ephs this year . . .
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby watercows » Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:39 pm

polarbear wrote:
purpleandwhite wrote:
polarbear wrote:Swimulator has it as a runaway for Amherst. Again, with 32 diving points to Amherst its tough to make that up. Perhaps someone like Zeb Hart can have a monster meet and win the 50 free and 100 fly, but even then it looks tough.


That won't be easy because the format, unless its changed, features the 200 fly and not the 100 fly. :D


Right, I forgot its 13 event rather than 16 event program.
Which makes diving even more important as there are less events to spread that loss against.
Tough one for the Ephs this year . . .

I get it--we've gotten into the habit of conceding easy diving points. But back in the day the Ephs' sheer depth was sufficient to overwhelm the Lord Jeffs (or whatever they're now called). I'm still not entirely sure what has happened and, regardless, we need to fix it.
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby polarbear » Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:48 pm

You always had divers -- not having divers is a new thing. Your point re depth is well taken, but with collegiate scoring you win the event you come out ahead no matter what. A good diver and 4 excellent swimmers and you win the meet.
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby purpleandwhite » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:34 am

polarbear wrote:You always had divers -- not having divers is a new thing. Your point re depth is well taken, but with collegiate scoring you win the event you come out ahead no matter what. A good diver and 4 excellent swimmers and you win the meet.


True top end talent usually wins dual meets as long as you can field winning relays. Amherst problem has been roster size and depth. This year the roster is bigger than in best years. We'll need to see how the depth looks as the year progresses
Diving is important in such meets, and at NESCAC but Amherst did beat Williams last year WITHOUT counting diving. It was close but this isn't horse shoes.
This year, is a different story. I do think home pool does have advantages in this rivalry so expect this to be very close.
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Re: Williams versus Amherst Dual Meet 2019

Postby polarbear » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:47 am

Spent some time yesterday looking at results from ~10 years ago when Amherst pulled off some upsets -- a 30 point swing in their favor in 2009 versus 2008 (even with splitting the relays and only 1 diver) . They just swam better that day, perhaps being at home did it.
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