Men's NESCACS

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themayor
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Men's NESCACS

Post by themayor » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:24 pm

http://upload.swimcloud.com/166306/

Psych sheet is out for the men. Have at it.

HamHeadCase
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by HamHeadCase » Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:03 pm

themayor wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:24 pm
http://upload.swimcloud.com/166306/

Psych sheet is out for the men. Have at it.
Go Zeb, Andrew, Aryeh, Isaac!!!!!!
Go HAMILTON!!!!!
Psyched for fast swims for all! Here's to NESCAC taking it to Nationals and showing all the other conferences how it's done :)

bobcatchronic
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by bobcatchronic » Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:35 pm

Tufts and Williams look to be neck and neck on the psych sheet, Amherst on their own in third, then Colby and Bates battling it out for 4th/5th, and Bowdoin a ways back in 6th. Then again, if the Tufts men are like the women and struggle to maintain their seeds, Amherst may have a shot to overtake them.

What events are people most excited for? Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing Gu/Romeyn battle it out, and the 100back should be crazy fast with a 49 likely needed to make the top heat.
Last edited by bobcatchronic on Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

RetiredJet
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by RetiredJet » Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:39 pm

I have more analysis to come this week as I investigate them more BUT CONN HAS A DIVER. I REPEAT CONN HAS A DIVER.

tapersucks
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by tapersucks » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:54 pm

Anyone know why Williams has 27 people entered in the meet?

EphPSD
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by EphPSD » Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:14 pm

As host team, they are allowed to have some exhibition only swimmers although I thought it was just 2.

100Breast
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by 100Breast » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:00 am

It is just two, but coaches with >24 person teams will routinely over-enter swimmers in the event of a roster swimmer getting sick or injured.

themayor
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by themayor » Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:21 pm

100Breast wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:00 am
It is just two, but coaches with >24 person teams will routinely over-enter swimmers in the event of a roster swimmer getting sick or injured.
Exactly. If teams are smart, they'll over enter and then scratch them from the meet when scratches are due. Don't know why more teams don't do this.

RetiredJet
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by RetiredJet » Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:50 pm

My general thoughts on the weekend coming up:

Williams:
Outlook: This year it’s Williams meet to lose. They generally tend to swim up on their seeds which will help them and hurt Tufts. They are anchored by a very strong Junior and Senior class but there is a lot of potential for swimmers like Hart to outperform his meet from last year. I expect everyone except for Lovette (possibly) to be fully shaved and tapered as well.
MVPs: It’s to choose because they have so many talented swimmers but Lovette, Karofsky, Trunsky and Delcompare would be my most valuable. All of them are extremely versatile and have A final potential at NCAA.
Weakness: It’s hard to isolate a weakness of this team but their sprints are their weakest aspect of their team. The 50 free they only return one athlete sub 21 (albeit a few were very close Stanton 21.1) but with the depth of sprint free at NESCACs this year we could possibly see some sprint finals without a Williams athlete.
Tufts:
Outlook: According to the psych sheet they will be favored but they will need to match all their seeds (which historically has been challenging). They have a handful of athletes like Camerano (50 Free/50 Fly) who will double up day one and they will most likely be in first after night one. This momentum could easily carry them through the weekend, but a few things still need to fall in place for them to surpass Williams.
MVP’s: Gu. Is there really anything else to say? They have a number of other athletes who will be 3 A final swimmers, but we are all here to see an 18-relay split.
Weakness: In the past breaststroke has been their big weakness and it could possibly be again. This year they have one guy who can probably A final in each event (Manfre-50, Tar Tar 100/200-if he swims these events) but after that the depth falls off quite a bit.

[GAP]

Amherst:
Outlook: They appear to be in no mans land this year. They don’t have the depth to compete with Tufts and Williams but no team below them can really push them. They have a very strong core of fast swimmers and I expect
MVP’s: Medley relays (Smith, Mebust, Koravos, Romeyn). Each of those guys individually will probably end up as an All-American this year and each of them should be in contention for individual NESCAC titles (minus Romeyn since I really don’t see him beating Gu in the 50/100)
Weakness: Distance free. They’ve had some of the best distance guys to come out of the NESCAC but this year they are look extremely thin. I do expect Wong to make A final in the 500 but in the 1000/1650 they have no one swimming in the night heat.

[GAP]

Colby:
Outlook: I am by no means a Colby historian, but I think they could end up in 4th this year which would have to be close to their best finish. They have a handful of swimmers who will be multiple A finals (see MVP’s) and that should allow them to be competitive in the relays.
MVP’s: Geiersbach, Bedell, Connors, Kronenwetter. Geiersbach has been a backstroke fixture at NESCAC level his whole career and he has been swimming very well this year. Bedell can cover 500-1650 and Connors/Kronewetter appear to have 50-200 down.
Weakness: Depth and possibly short axis. It appears that Gray (26.04/57.2) can hold down breast leg on medley relays and some combo of Jones/Choi for fly legs but there are not a lot of A finals between those 3 guys.
Bates:
Outlook: The Bates women swam exceptionally well this past weekend and if Bates men do something similar then they could easily push Colby for 4th. They will have to rely on a lot of their underclassman for points which is a little risky but I think they will have enough firepower to be top 5.
MVP’s: Charest, Cory and Berry. All of these guys have A final potential and the good news for Bates is they all swim different events. Backstroke is incredibly deep this year but if Berry can get into A finals that will be very impressive.
Weakness: Freestyle. From the 50-1650 they don’t have any major standouts swimmers. Now this is going to hurt them on relays (especially versus teams like Bates and Conn who have some very solid sprinters).
Bowdoin:
Outlook: They graduated a big class last year and they will struggle to match their 4th place from last year. They have a very strong sophomore class and I expect them to thrive with a year of experience under their belt. They lack a few key pieces to push relays but they do have some studs (Mebust and Yang) which can take them a good portion of the way.
MVP’s: Sophomore class studs (Mebust, Yang, Komishane). Mebust and Yang have multiple events they can A final, I expect mebust to be pushing for NCAA times as well in the 100 back. Komishane appeared to be off at last year NESCACs and with a strong meet he can greatly improve.
Weakness: Breast and Distance free. They only have 1-3 swimmers entered in each of the breast events and they are never seeded higher than 30. Additionally, they decided to put Komishane in 200 instead of the 1000 leaving them with no swimmers in that event.
Conn:
Outlook: Conn will be relying on their MVP’s for this year’s NESCACs. They have a solid freshman class and continue to bring in young guys but attrition is still their biggest issue. Just from a depth perspective I wonder if they will really be able to compete with the Maine schools. They do add a diver which is guaranteed points but overall I think they struggle to move past anyone above them.
MVP’s: Nussbaum, Adl, Merrill, and Legros. The first 3 guys have been fixtures for conn for the past few years and they are all versatile enough that the free relays should be able to be top 5. I think their 800 free will be their best relay. Legros
Weakness: Non-free events. If you look at 50 fly, back and breast their highest seed in those events they are 31, 23 and 19. Now they do traditionally have slow seed times but this could spell big trouble for them overall.

[GAP]

Middlebury:
Outlook: It’s always hard to get a good read on Midd teams. They always seem to have a very promising freshman class but never seem to fully be on at NESCACs. They have some solid upperclassman in Pannos and Jalbert and overall their medley relays have potential. Their lack of top end speed will allow teams like Conn to be just out of reach.
MVP’s: Chang and Pannos. Chang has A final speed in the 50 breast and Pannos was B final in 3 events last year but if things fall his way this year, he could easily move into an A final. Outside of these 2 and possibly their freshman diver (Rickenbacher) I don’t see any other A finals on this team.
Weakness: There are some holes on the team, but IM seems to be their biggest issue. They have one swimmer seeded to make it back in the 200 IM (at 24th) and no one in the 400 IM (highest seed 35th) whereas most other events they have someone seeded to make it back.
Trinity
Outlook: Trinity appears to be struggling with attrition as they lost their largest point scorer from last year (Schronck). The outlook appears to be bleak for Trinity, but their one bright spot is their MVP’s. Both Pavlovic and Rupp are great sprinters and should be able to help carry some of their relays. The 200 Free relay has the most upside and possibly their 200 medley. Depending on how everything shakes out they will be competing with Hamilton for the 9/10 spots.
MVP’s: Pavlovic, Rupp and Kapanadaze. Both Pavlovic and Rupp were B final swimmers last year (minus one A final from Pavlovic). If Pavlovic can sneak into another A final again it will be huge for Trinity (as he struggles as the distance goes up). Kapanadaze was a 2 A final swimmer and they will need him to repeat that if they want to stay ahead of Hamilton. Also going to be on the lookout for Liam Colleran who could have some solid swims.
Weakness: Depth. It is hard to say they need pinpoint one area where they need help. Overall, I think having consistent classes will allow them to grow and have more success at NESCACs.
Hamilton
Outlook: Are we starting to see a (small) turnaround with the Hamilton team? They have solid swimmers in their freshman and sophomore class that could allow them to build up the team. They have solid breast and fly guys (Tatro also moonlights as a backstroker) so their medley relays could be sneaking into top 8 this year.
MVP’s: Wilkins and Vicioso both have a shot to A final in the 100 breast and I can’t remember a time when 2 Hamilton guys made A final in an event. Wilkins has some IM range as well so it will be interesting to see if he swims 200IM or 50 Breast Day 1 at NESCACS.
Weakness: While the team is getting better, they still have some major holes. Their biggest has to be backstroke. Tatro is their fastest guy but he is a better flier so if you take him out they are down in the low 30s/high 40s which hurts them individually and on relays as well.
Wesleyan
Outlook: This team doesn’t appear to have a large ceiling this year. They do not return many point scoring swimmers from last year but they have brought in a handful freshman who are seeded to score. Tran, Brun, Polaner, and Ettinger are all seeded to score and appear to be a good core for Wesleyan to build off of.
MVP’s: Tran and Polaner. They are probably the 2 best freshman that Wesleyan has brought in. Tran has A final potential in the 200 fly and Polaner has a lot of range in the free. A finals would be huge for them as freshman.
Weakness: Sprint free. We have seen what a good sprinter can do for a team and Wesleyans current best 50 free guy is a 22.80. Without solid sprinters all of their relays will struggle. Outside of this they are like Trinity and Hamilton in that they just need some depth to allow their team to build and start to grow.

Borg
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by Borg » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:45 pm

Last year Colby crushed Bates by 45 points head to head in season but finished 10 points behind Bates at NESCACs.

This year Bates eked out a home pool win vs Colby despite Colby swimmers winning most events. Bates depth including an extra diver was the difference.
I expect more Bates points from their 1st years than were scored by their departing seniors at NESCACs last year.
Bates relays should be significantly faster because of their 1st year swimmers as well.
More depth, new speed, and a 2nd scoring diver in a field of only 16 should get Bates to 4th place, more comfortably ahead of Colby than last year.
Bowdoin will have a fight for 6th.

Colby's top guns have been swimming very fast all winter and it will be interesting to see if they wipe out their personal bests this weekend

ColbySprint
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by ColbySprint » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:17 pm

Even if Colby doesn't come away with 4th there could be a ton of school records set at the meet. Some of which have been around for a long time, should be fun to watch!

Watch list:
50 Free: 20.57 - Galea '15 (Connors)
100 Free: 45.46 - Galea '15 (Connors)
200 Free: 1:41.21 - Galea '15 (Connors)

Distance Free - Bedell already has them all and my guess is will have to wait until next year to lower most of them

100 Back: 50.87 - Dewey '07 (Geiersbach)

100 Fly: 50.44 - Herrick '98 (Choi)
200 Fly: 1:52.32 - Herrick '98 (Choi)

My guess is less people care about school records but hey, I'm watching!

bobcatchronic
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Team Affiliation: Bates

Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by bobcatchronic » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:44 pm

RetiredJet wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:50 pm


Amherst:
They appear to be in no mans land this year. They don’t have the depth to compete with Tufts and Williams but no team below them can really push them.


Bates:
Outlook: The Bates women swam exceptionally well this past weekend and if Bates men do something similar then they could easily push Colby for 4th. They will have to rely on a lot of their underclassman for points which is a little risky but I think they will have enough firepower to be top 5.
MVP’s: Charest, Cory and Berry. All of these guys have A final potential and the good news for Bates is they all swim different events. Backstroke is incredibly deep this year but if Berry can get into A finals that will be very impressive.
Weakness: Freestyle. From the 50-1650 they don’t have any major standouts swimmers. Now this is going to hurt them on relays (especially versus teams like Bates and Conn who have some very solid sprinters).
This is an awesome preview for the meet. Couple nits to pick - Last week, the Tufts women lost over 100 points from their seeds and the Amherst women gained over 100. If that happens again, I do see Amherst possibly catching up to Tufts, or at least making it interesting. Of course, that would also mean that Williams runs away with this meet too. But on paper, there's definitely a gap between them.

Bates probably does have that one standout, at least for the 50 and maybe the 100. Berry has a PR of 20.2 - that can likely only be matched by Gu and Romeyn. He hasn't been nearly that fast this year, but Bates has a history of their top guys dropping a ton of time come taper (Pender/Ewing/Charest). I think Bates has some sneaky sprint depth and can make some noise on the short relays.

For Bates/Colby, as Borg said, I think it will come down to how effectively Colby tapers. Their top guys were right on their PR's at midseason. If that was just a step on the path to this weekend, they'll qualify some relays for NCAA's. If that's all that they have in the tank though, Bates has an opportunity to run away with it.
Last edited by bobcatchronic on Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

polarbear
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by polarbear » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:46 pm

ColbySprint wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:17 pm
Even if Colby doesn't come away with 4th there could be a ton of school records set at the meet. Some of which have been around for a long time, should be fun to watch!

Watch list:
50 Free: 20.57 - Galea '15 (Connors)
100 Free: 45.46 - Galea '15 (Connors)
200 Free: 1:41.21 - Galea '15 (Connors)

Distance Free - Bedell already has them all and my guess is will have to wait until next year to lower most of them

100 Back: 50.87 - Dewey '07 (Geiersbach)

100 Fly: 50.44 - Herrick '98 (Choi)
200 Fly: 1:52.32 - Herrick '98 (Choi)

My guess is less people care about school records but hey, I'm watching!
I remember those Herrick swims . . . my recollection was that he came in at something like 58 in the 100 fly

polarbear
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by polarbear » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:48 pm

Looking forward to the Bowdoin swims and what they do, but lack of BR and distance -- which look weak on the psych sheet -- will hurt them overall. Lots of sprinting and I think they can get an NCAA relay, but lots of segregation in limited events.

Some choices that stood out -- O'Connor going fly rather than back, Komishane 200 free rather than 1,000, Mebust no 200 back (to be expected)

The women had some good swims, I am optimistic for the men.

RetiredJet
Posts: 165
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Re: Men's NESCACS

Post by RetiredJet » Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:42 pm

Borg wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:45 pm
Last year Colby crushed Bates by 45 points head to head in season but finished 10 points behind Bates at NESCACs.

This year Bates eked out a home pool win vs Colby despite Colby swimmers winning most events. Bates depth including an extra diver was the difference.
I expect more Bates points from their 1st years than were scored by their departing seniors at NESCACs last year.
Bates relays should be significantly faster because of their 1st year swimmers as well.
More depth, new speed, and a 2nd scoring diver in a field of only 16 should get Bates to 4th place, more comfortably ahead of Colby than last year.
Bowdoin will have a fight for 6th.

Colby's top guns have been swimming very fast all winter and it will be interesting to see if they wipe out their personal bests this weekend
Dual meets don't really matter that much. They reward top end speed way more than depth but I understand your point. I do think the first year Bates guys have more upside than last years seniors but you just don't always know how they will respond.

Looking at Berry's best times I certainly overlooked just how fast he was, for sure moves Bates up a bit in my mind (especially with relays). Curious to see if he will double day 1 or not. Could be a long finals night for him if he has to go 2 free relay, 50 back, 50 free, 400 medley

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